Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 7-4-India-14

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 7-4-India-14

Ghazwa-e-Hind1, or the final battle in India; "Why is There No Storm in Your Ocean?2" India: (2013) Al Qaeda's Call to Muslim Youth.

“There are storm clouds gathering.”From his base in Pakistan, al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a call for war. He urged jihadists everywhere to help Muslims in Bangladesh, “where Islam is being clearly fought”. He claimed the country’s “atheist government protects those who publicly ridicule the Prophet”. Fighters from Bangladesh, intelligence officials believe, have responded to the call, though no one is certain how many.

Para Commandos of the Indian Army carried out surgical operations deep inside Myanmar early Tuesday and killed several militants in two camps of northeastern rebel groups in a covert operation which declared India's new-found readiness to pre-empt terror threats undeterred by borders.

Soft state no more: Army avenging Manipur attack is a message to China, Pakistanby Rajeev Srinivasan Jun 10, 2015 11:30 IST The fact that Indian armed forces reached out across the Myanmar border (as well as into Nagaland) and attacked separatist forces in their hideouts is quite remarkable. The fact that we think it is remarkable is even more remarkable: Because no other country has ever suffered so much by way of humiliating attacks from across international borders, and done so little about it in the past. "Hot pursuit" is a legitimate expression of national defence, but India has never said or acted as though it had the right to act thus. There have been innumerable cases where terrorists infiltrate, cause mayhem, and then melt away across a convenient border, whereupon India bombards the neighbour with dossiers and desperate pleas, but not much more. This, of course, marks India as a classic Soft State. The nadir of this, naturally, is the response to 26/11. It has been several years, and Pakistan has done nothing – not even lip service – to bring those responsible to justice. India has huffed and puffed and sent reams of dossiers across, but the Pakistanis, quite brazenly, allowed the masterminds to roam free. The image of a hand-wringing, impotent India hoping, in vain, that some godfather would help remains a painful memory.

That the co-ordinated assault, with Myanmarese army co-operation, which reportedly killed 15-20 terrorists is laudable, although information is sketchy. I also understand there were no casualties on the Indian side. In a way, this is the soft under-belly of guerilla warfare: Unless your hosts are willing to protect you, it is easy for a conventional army to ambush you, just as much as you can do it to them. And in this case, clearly the Myanmarese are fed up with the separatists fighting India (they have their share of violent separatists too). Either that, or the Indians applied carrot or stick, or both, to get them to co-operate. This is also a signal to China (which is widely suspected of aiding and arming the separatists) that their mischief may no longer be tolerated. Myanmar is rather pointedly moving away from China’s Dhritarashtra-aalingnam. By co-operating with Myanmar, and presumably with Bangladesh too, it will be possible for India (and for the other two as well) to deny safe havens abroad for separatists and other terrorists who have made a habit of slipping across porous borders. The reported story that there were no Indian casualties suggests the raid was well-planned and competently managed. That also reinforces the dictum 1 Information gathered on the Al Qaeda's India plans point to a mobilisation of its resources for jihad. The ideological goal of the group, as detailed in the report, is chilling: Ghazwa-e-Hind, or the final battle in India. Ghazwa-e-Hind refers to an indoctrinated view of a final apocalyptic war in which India will be conquered by a jihadi army. All soldiers of this army are guaranteed a place in heaven.2 http://www.ipcs.org/article/peace-and-conflict-database-jammu-and-kashmir/india-al-qaedas-call-to-muslim-youth-4052.html

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http://www.firstpost.com/author/rajeev


that the Indian armed forces are competent, and that it is the lack of political will that has always defeated India’s pursuit of national strategy. Exhibit A, of course, the 93,000 Pakistani PoWs in 1971, sent back without extracting a suitable pound of flesh from their government, such as a verifiable lid on terrorism. Incidentally, on the same day, another story broke: 12 alleged Maoists were killed in Jharkhand. If this story is as accurate as reported, then that implies the government has decided to clamp down on ongoing internal terrorism as well. It is a matter of conjecture that the Maoists may well be supported by Western interests, and, more immediately, by China.

A third, related story, is that India may well be getting berthing rights in Haiphong harbor in Vietnam, as in "Clash of Titans: India’s ‘Act East’ policy meets China’s ‘Maritime Silk Road’ in the South China Sea" by Gordon C Chang in the Journal of Political Risk, quoting Srikanth Kondappalli of JNU. It should be noted that in these columns I have previously suggested an Indian Navy presence there, as well as in the giant Cam Ranh Bay naval base. All this suggests that Narendra Modi may be willing to flex some muscles in the pursuit of geo-political aims. I read a long piece recently quoting Mackinder’s “heartland” theories, but I am personally more convinced by the rival "rimland" theories of Spykman. In the latter, the Indian Ocean, and its littoral states, will soon be a key pivot in geo-politics, which suggests that an aggressive stance on building up a blue-water navy would serve Indian interests best, and both Myanmar and Bangladesh would be useful allies, along with the littorals of the South China Sea such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Going back to the land borders of India, hawkish analysts have always wondered about Indian pusillanimity in hot-pursuit across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. The only time there was a serious chance of an Indian assault was immediately after the Parliament attack, and the mobilization under Operation Parakram. There are indications that Pakistan was really worried about it, and that it used its coterie of moles, including leftist and/or “Faigate” types in the US, to create diversions in India, and quite successfully. But I digress. By pursuing this surgical strike across the Myanmarese border, India is indicating that the days of turning the other cheek are over. It will use appropriate force. There was a preview of this in the withering counter-fire when Pakistanis began bombarding India a few months ago. And it’s not only Pakistan that’s on notice. China as well: because that is the proximate enemy, as in George Fernandez’s words. Enough already with the Soft State.

Interview: Why Myanmar operation can't be replicated in Pakistan? Posted by: Vicky Nanjappa Updated: Wednesday, June 10, 2015, The Indian army carried out an operation along the Myanmar border in which it killed around 50 militants which have been targeting the North Eastern states.While this is an operation that has been hailed and many feel the need to carry out such surgical strikes, the immediate question that comes to mind is if we could replicate the same in Pakistan?

What one needs to bear in mind is that carrying out surgical strikes in Pakistan is a different ball game. Pakistan is an enemy nation and Myanmar is not. Many may argue that that Pakistan is a nuclear state and hence such strikes cannot be carried out. Air Marshal (retd) BK Pandey tells OneIndia in this interview that the concern in Pakistan is not the nuclear weapons, but the fact that it is an enemy nation and carrying out surgical strikes could escalate the problem. What are your thoughts on the Myanmar operation? Militants hiding along the Myanmar border is not a new problem. We have seen this happening since the past 20 years and the Indian army has been involved in similar operations over there for long. Such an operation is called as Hot

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http://www.jpolrisk.com/clash-of-titans-indias-act-east-policy-meets-chinas-maritime-silk-road-in-the-south-china-sea/

http://www.jpolrisk.com/clash-of-titans-indias-act-east-policy-meets-chinas-maritime-silk-road-in-the-south-china-sea/


Pursuit.Also read: Manipur ambush- How the Indian army is flushing out the militants. The Indian army has had to frequently respond to the North Eastern militants as they always tend to needle the Indian side. Is the Myanmar government supporting these militants? They do not support these militants. In fact it is the Chinese who support them. The Myanmar government has been a mute spectator to these developments as they are helpless against the Chinese. However over the years what we have seen is that the Myanmar government has not reacted to the hot pursuit being conducted by the Indian army.Myanmar does not approve of militants taking shelter on their soil. However they are also helpless since these militants are backed by the Chinese. They feel it is best to stay quiet when India undertakes a hot pursuit.Was the Indian army caught off guard when 18 of its soldiers were killed last week? The Indian army has carried out a commendable job on the Myanmar border. However there are also lessons to be learnt. They were completely caught off guard by the militants.Also read: Manipur ambush: A rare cross-border surgical strike by Special Forces. In fact they were caught off guard in an areas which is extremely probe to attacks by militants. There was intelligence failure and they had let their guard down. The hot pursuit that was conducted along the border of Myanmar is no doubt a rendition of honour, but there are several lessons that need to be learnt as well.

Can surgical strikes be replicated in Pakistan as well? Strikes do take place along the Pakistan border as well. Although the surgical strikes do not take place, the Indian army resorts to artillery bombardment. We cannot send troops into Pakistan as the problem will escalate. Moreover one needs to bear in mind that Pakistan is an enemy nation whereas Myanmar is not. Sending troops there will escalate the problem and blow into a full-fledged war. The manner of response is different when it comes to Pakistan. Does the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear state make a difference? According to me the nuclear state aspect is a little over blown. First and foremost Pakistan will not use its nuclear weapons as they would be the first to be affected by it as radiation does not remain limited.Nuclear weapons are meant to prevent wars and not win them. Pakistan is well aware of the consequences of using a nuclear weapon. Moreover do you think they are going to target New Delhi? The diplomatic community of the entire world is in New Delhi and if they are targeted then you can well imagine what would happen to Pakistan. It is the Western world which needs to worry more about nuclear weapons. If the Pakistan nuclear weapons go into the wrong hands, it is the West that will be targeted. Does local politics play a part in carrying out strikes against

Pakistan? Take into account first the local politics in Kashmir. The problem in Kashmir seems to be escalating and hence feel that the tie up with the PDP was not the best of decisions made by the BJP.It is very important in Kashmir to have a political will and if that is weak the security mechanism will always be drawn back. There are internal problems in Kashmir which need to taken care of first and only once India gains complete control of the

issue can the same be resolved.

Para Commandos of the Indian Army carried out surgical operations deep inside Myanmar early Tuesday and killed several militants in two camps of northeastern rebel groups in a covert operation which declared India's new-found readiness to pre-empt terror threats undeterred by borders.

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1. The Myanmar Govt was informed, The Myanmar government was informed hours after the commandos in battle fatigues had mostly completed surgical strikes against the groups which had over the past couple of weeks killed 30 Indian soldiers. The operation, conceived as retaliation as well as the declaration of Modi government's intent to strike at terror threats across its borders, had begun at 3am but the Indian ambassador could pass on the information to Myanmar's foreign ministry only after their offices opened at regular hours on Tuesday morning. Interestingly, India had an agreement with Myanmar to allow troops to enter each other's territory in search of terrorists, but with consent. However, for Tuesday morning operation, government did not inform Myanmar in advance fearing possible leak of information, given the close contact NSCN (K) has with middle and lower level of Myanmar army.

2. Indian Army didn't incur any casualties, The commandos safely returned to Indian territory after silencing the insurgents' guns in a 13 hour-operation in which IAF choppers and drones assisted the SF(Special Forces) soldiers.

3. The order of the attack was given by Modi, Minister of state for information and broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore told a TV channel that the hot pursuit was ordered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He said attacks on Indians, be it in Iraq or Yemen, were unacceptable. "This is a message to neighbours who harbour terrorists," Rathore said.

4. It was a one-off operation but shows India is serious about dealing with cross border terrorism, Announcing the success, the government made it clear that it was not a one-off operation but symbolized its decision not to be constrained by borders and to be pre-emptive in dealing with terror threats. "While ensuring peace and tranquility along the border and in the border states, any threat to our security, safety and national integrity will meet a firm response," the Army declared officially, a posture that is also applicable to terror groups sheltered by other neighbouring countries.

5. Here's how it happened, The troops were guided to two camps of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) and allied insurgent groups by intelligence which was gathered by operatives who crossed over into Myanmar a couple of days ago and returned with precise co-ordinates of the terror dens along with photographs.

6. Between 20-50 militants were killed in the strike, Specific details of the fatalities among the insurgents were not available but sources in home and defence ministries put the toll between 20 and 50. More than the toll, the daring raid, which saw commandos crawling hundreds of meters to raid the camps, marked the unveiling of India's new response to unconventional threats irrespective of where they come from. This was the first declared instance of the use of the doctrine of pre-emption: a

principle that the US invokes to disregard constraints of national borders to nip threats.

6. Yes, it was a 'Revenge Attack', Briefing the reporters after the successful strikes on the camps at two separate locations across Tuensang in Nagaland and Ukhrul in Manipur, Major General Ranbir Singh made no bones of the fact that the twin operations were provoked by the killing of Indian soldiers. More importantly, he said the Army had to move in view of "credible and specific" intelligence about more attacks inside India. "These attacks were to be carried out by some of the groups involved in earlier attacks on our security personnel and

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their allies," said General Singh, additional director general of military operations. "In view of the imminent threat, an immediate response was necessary", he said.

7. Myanmar cooperated, but it was an Indian Army show, The General dropped big enough a hint that India had acted unilaterally and that Myanmar was brought into the picture much after the commandos struck the terror camps. The official statement conspicuously refrained from stating that the operation was a joint effort with Myanmar Army and very much suggested that the neighbouring country was just informed of the action and that too well after it had begun. "We are in communication with Myanmar authorities on this matter. There is a history of close cooperation between our two militaries. We look forward to working with them to combat such terrorism," he said. Government sources said the political leadership cleared the cross-border pursuit because it was considered necessary to lift the morale of the Army after it lost 30 of its men in 3 attacks by insurgents, as well as to send across a message to "perpetrators of terror wherever they are".

8. India wants to set an example by giving 'Disproportionate Response' to such attacks, Explaining Modi government's new stance towards terror threat, a senior official told TOI: "You cannot realistically hope to prevent each terror attack because the timing and the target is determined by the enemy. But how do you respond is your prerogative. And it is the response which defines your determination to use all responses at your disposal to strike at those responsible." The cross-border pursuit was in line with Modi government's decision to give disproportionate response to provocations, which had been visible in Jammu and Kashmir in recent months, where Indian troops have been aggressive in their response to ceasefire violations by Pakistan.

Militants belonging to NSCN (K) and KYKL (Meitei Kanglei Yawol Kunna Lup) were killed in the operation in which Indian troops suffered no casualties. Technical intercepts and reconnaissance missions confirmed the presence of the militants in the two camps, which was kept under surveillance by air force UAVs for hours. Once they were sure of the

inputs and with political clearance, Indian Air Force helicopters dropped para commandos deep inside Myanmar late Monday night. "Following the attack on our security personnel on June 4, 2015 in Chandel, Manipur, we have been on a high alert. In the course of the last few days, credible and specific intelligence was received about further attacks that were being planned within our territory," Gen Singh said. Gen Singh said the Indian Army troops "engaged two separate groups of insurgents along the Nagaland and Manipur borders" and "significant casualties have been inflicted on them".

9. This isn't the only action army has taken since the attack in Chandel, Commandos from the Army's SF units have been operating in northeast for the past several weeks, carrying out surgical strikes on militant hideouts. There has been a steady flow of intelligence in recent days about militant groups, under NSCN (K) leadership and with safe havens in Myanmar, stepping up their plans to carry out attacks on security forces. In fact, intelligence agencies suspect that there could be more attacks in the coming days.

10. What's the strength of the NSCN, Of its 1500 cadres, NSCN (K) has about a 1000 of them in Myanmar. Many are sheltered in about half-dozen camps closer to the Indian border, while its leadership and most cadres are based in Taga area of Myanmar. Some intelligence inputs have said that Chinese PLA officers played a role in bringing together various

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insurgent groups in northeast together for a meeting in April in Taga area. Though only three outfits signed the pact announcing the United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia - NSCN(K), ULFA faction headed by Paresh Baruah and Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO) - several others agreed verbally to work together. (With inputs TNN)

84 on hitlist, 8 killed: Dhaka’s politics drives cycle of deathAvijit Roy, a prominent Bangladeshi-American blogger known for speaking out against religious extremism was hacked to death as he walked through Bangladesh's capital with his wife. (Source: AP photo) Written by Praveen Swami | Dhaka | Published on:April 17, 2015 2:45 am For ten days early this year, the seven men took turns to stalk their prey, watching him eat,

talk, laugh and walk the streets of Dhaka. On February 26, they were ready. Grainy CCTV footage shows three of them following their victim to the spot they had picked to kill him. And then, on the street outside Dhaka University, they killed Bangladeshi-American writer Avijit Roy, leaving his wife Rafida Bonya with serious injuries.

Five minutes before the attack began, police sources in Dhaka said, the leader of the death squad received a coded text message on a disposable cellphone, signalling that the killers were in place. He received another a minute after the attack to let him know Roy had been hacked down. That man, police allege, was Redwanul Rana, a student at Dhaka’s prestigious North-South University and now among Bangladesh’s most wanted criminals, said to command the death squad of a shadowy al-Qaeda affiliated organisation called the Ansarullah Bengali Team. In 2013, Ansarullah had put out a list of 84 anti-Islamist voices it wanted silenced. Eight, so far, are dead: Roy, Rajeeb Haider, Jafar Munshi, Mamun Hossain, Jagatjyoti Talukder, Arif Hossain Dwip, Ziauddin Zakaria Babu and Wasikur Rahman. The killings are part of a bitter struggle to control Bangladesh’s destiny, pitting the secular nationalists who won independence in 1971, against the Islamists who usurped power four years later. For the past decade, the nationalists had the upper hand — but now, the wheel could be turning again.

Caliphate calling Early this month, evidence of a significant new jihadist mobilisation emerged when Bangladesh’s elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) recovered assault rifles and pistols from cadre of a new organisation — the Shaheed Hamja Brigade. RAB investigators had recovered over 150 kg and bomb-making equipment in earlier raids on the Brigade. RAB chief Benazir Ahmad said that “an entire army battalion could have been equipped with the explosives”. “I can say without bragging that we have been on top of the problem,” said Ahmad. “There working very hard to surprising us with what they can do, though, and I’m working harder than ever, because I hate surprises.” The story goes back to 2013, when unprecedented protests demanding the death sentence for Jama’at-e-Islami leaders implicated in 1971 war crimes swept the country. From his base in Pakistan, al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a call for war. He urged jihadists everywhere to help Muslims in Bangladesh, “where Islam is being clearly fought”. He claimed the country’s “atheist government protects those who publicly ridicule the Prophet”. Fighters from Bangladesh, intelligence officials believe, have responded to the call, though no one is certain how many.

UNLFW: The new name for terror in NE TNN | Jun 5, 2015,

GUWAHATI: The newly-floated United Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW), a conglomerate of United Liberation Front of Assam (Independent), Nationalist

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http://indianexpress.com/profile/author/praveen-swami/


Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang), Kamatapur Liberation Organization (KLO) and National Democratic Front of Boroland (Songbijit), which has claimed responsibility for the killing of 20 personnel of the Army's Dogra regiment in an ambush in Manipur on Thursday morning, is the new name of terror in the northeast. The UNLFW had also claimed responsibility for the May 3 ambush in Nagaland's Mon district that killed seven Assam Rifles jawans and one Territorial Army jawan. Chairman of NSCN-K, S S Khaplang, who is also the chairman of this new platform, had recently pulled out of the ceasefire agreement with the Centre. Khaplang, however, continues to be in a Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement with Myanmar. The UNLFW was formed on April 17 in the Taga area of Myanmar, where these outfits are currently based, to achieve 'united and total struggle'. According to Indian security and intelligence agencies, the seeds for the formation of a new platform were sown at a 2011 meeting in Ruili in China's Yunan province. Ulfa leader Paresh Baruah, NSCN-K leader Khaplang and leaders of Meitei outfits, United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and People's Liberation Army (PLA), of Manipur attended the meeting, said sources. Immediately after the meting, the Meitei outfits formed an umbrella organization called CorCom, which includes Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), PREPAK (Progressive), Revolutionary People's Front, and United National Liberation Front (UNLF). As many as 11 militant outfits from Assam, Nagaland and Manipur are based in the western part of Myanmar that borders Arunachal, Nagaland and Manipur.

Additional DGP of Assam Police (Special Branch) Pallab Bhattacharya confirmed that Paresh Baruah and others had been trying to form a new platform since 2011. The UNLFW is the third umbrella outfit of its kind. In 1989 the Indo-Burma Revolutionary Front (IBRF) was formed, comprising United National Liberation Front, NSCN-K, Ulfa and Kuki National Army, with the help of Chin National Front, a militant outfit of Myanmar. In mid-1995, Ulfa and NSCN-K formed a separate umbrella organization called United Liberation Front of Seven Sisters. After a split in Ulfa, in which the major faction began peace talks with the Centre, these earlier groups became defunct. Bhattacharya told TOI, "We are taking UNLFW very seriously since it has brought several militant outfits under one umbrella. The Ulfa-I,

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NDFB-S and the other outfits, who have been demanding secession from India, have been using the term Western South East Asia (WSEA) to describe the northeast. In 2013, Paresh Baruah issued a statement hinting at the formation of a common platform for the region's militant outfits.

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Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 7-4-India-14

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