By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 12-18-Russia-Ukraine

“The Nafir to Crimea has started and Turkey is the starting point.”

The best way for Russia to solve its problem with America would be to trigger a nuclear weapon at Yellowstone National Park and hope that would set off a supervolcano, destroying the continent, according to the chief of a Russian think tank. Sivkov, described as a geopolitical analyst, also accused the “West” of moving “to the borders of Russia” already. The analyst, also described in the article as a military strategist, told Pravda previously that the ultimate goal of the U.S. is to “destroy Russia.” -- Konstantin Sivkov

"There is no reason to wait, we have to act. Now each scenario, unfortunately, is real. "What can we do? Immediately begin to strengthen the army. -- Zbigniew Brzezinski,

A “Russian invasion” France’s intelligence chief has questioned NATO’s claims of Russia preparing to attack Ukraine as their agents failed to spot any activities signalling this - either before or after the crisis began. “NATO announced that the Russians were about to invade Ukraine. But, according to French intelligence, there is nothing to corroborate this hypothesis – we determined that the Russians were deploying neither command posts nor logistical facilities, including field hospitals, needed for a military incursion,” -- General Gomart told a parliamentary hearing.

The Ukrainian armed coup was organized from Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview for a new documentary aired Sunday. The Americans tried to hide behind the Europeans, but Moscow saw through the trick, he added.

• A report on EU-Russia relations by a UK House of Lords committee admits that the EU totally miscalculated Moscow’s reaction to the developments in Ukraine because of a lack of Russian experts, says Lord Peter Truscott.

• In an interview with RFE/RL in Brussels, former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt talks frankly about the mistakes made by the European Union with regard to Russia, what he thinks the Russian president's next moves are likely to be, and why the bloc needs to engage more deeply with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

• According to US Lt Gen Ben Hodges, a senior commander in Europe, nearly 12,000 Russian troops are operating inside Ukraine. Russia has rejected those allegations. "These figures, which are plucked out of the air, of course demoralise and disorientate the international community," said Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich..

French military intelligence rules out ‘Russian invasion plans’ for Ukraine

Published time: April 11, 2015 France’s intelligence chief has questioned NATO’s claims of Russia preparing to attack Ukraine as their agents failed to spot any activities signaling this - either before or after the crisis began. A statement by the chief of France’s military intelligence, General Christophe Gomart, was published on the National Assembly’s website. “NATO announced that the Russians were about to invade Ukraine. But, according to French intelligence, there is nothing to corroborate this hypothesis – we determined that the Russians were deploying neither command posts nor logistical facilities, including field hospitals, needed for a military incursion,” General Gomart told a parliamentary hearing. NATO’s top brass has been incanting mantras about a “Russian invasion” ever since the crisis in Ukraine began a year ago. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, as well as his predecessor

Cees Pagina 1 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, have lashed at Russia on numerous occasions, claiming that the Russian military is present on the ground in Ukraine, but failing to provide evidence supporting these claims. “Our conclusion eventually proved correct because even if some Russian soldiers had indeed been seen on the Ukrainian side of the border, it was just a ploy, meant to bring pressure to bear on President Poroshenko, rather than an attempt to invade Ukraine,” General Gomart said. The French intelligence chief’s remarks came in the context of France’s role in NATO. Gomart noted that at the moment the alliance is dominated by US intelligence, while France’s intelligence is taken not taken into consideration so much. “France will not be fooled. France has its own sources of information and we are aware what the explanation for the crisis in Ukraine is,” Philippe Migault, expert on Ukraine from the University of International and Strategic Relations, told Sputnik news agency after Gomart’s remarks were published. Russian MPs hailed Gomart’s comments, dubbing them “a cold shower” amidst “anti-Russian hysteria in the West.” Frants Klintsevich, of the United Russia party, said the report showed US intelligence has been working to fulfill a political order. Meanwhile, on Friday five Northern European states, non-NATO Finland and Sweden included, signed a declaration on the expansion of military cooperation to counter “Russian aggression against Ukraine.” Since Finland and Sweden intend to interact with NATO on a matching contribution basis, which might indicate a desire to join the alliance, Moscow will view this declaration as an act of aggression, Norwegian defense analyst Janne Haaland Matlary warned. “Finland and Sweden have also decided to keep their exercises to NATO standards, which implies a step on the way toward NATO. Today, there are no political grounds for them to join NATO, public opinion is not frightened enough, and referendums will be required. But what is happening now still looks like a preparation for membership,” Matlary told Aftenposten newspaper on Friday.

March 23, 2015 At Credit Suisse’s 18th Annual Asian Investment Conference, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Dr. Bobo Lo, an independent Russian and Chinese foreign policy expert, discussed rising tensions in East-West relations. Economic sanctions, they said, have failed to deter President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to assert Russian influence in Eastern Europe, which argues for a clear response from the West that includes expanding military forces among NATO members.

• Sanctions may have weakened Russia’s economy, but they have also strengthened its resolve to resist Western demands. “I have no great expectations for the future of (Russian-EU) relations,” Lo said. Russia “doesn’t take Europe seriously,” he added. Instead, he sees a divided Europe that is no longer capable of being a major player. “They feel like they can take whatever the West throws at them and emerge victorious at the end,” Lo said during the conference’s geopolitical risk panel discussion. “The more pressure they (Russia) are under, the harder they will fight.”

• Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is also former Prime Minister of Denmark, lamented the failure of partnerships between the West and Russia, saying the East-West relationship had become more dangerous in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “I see it as a very dangerous situation with long-ranging consequences,” Rasmussen said.

On Wednesday April 1, the head of NATO Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance was undergoing its largest troop increase since the end of the Cold War. In February, the organization said it would double its Eastern European Response Force to include 30,000 military personnel. Romania is currently considering whether to host NATO’s heavy military equipment, but NATO Supreme Commander General Philip Breedlove has hinted that Bucharest will offer its support to the alliance. “This decision will be announced very soon –

Cees Pagina 2 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

how this all will be accomplished – and my expectation is that if Romania is asked to participate, they will do so as they have done in every NATO venture so far, and have been a great host and great allies,” General Breedlove said. Russia has hit out at an ‘unprecedented’ NATO military build-up along its eastern border. A military spokesman says this clearly violates a Russia-NATO treaty, which forbids the alliance from permanently stationing troops in the Baltic States. The Russian Foreign Ministry has declared NATO’s encroachment as an unprecedented violation of the Russia-NATO founding act, which was signed in May 1997. The act forbids the trans-Atlantic organization to station troops in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania permanently. "NATO buildup on the eastern flank, or in the so-called 'front-line countries,' is an unprecedentedly dangerous step that violates all agreements, including the Russia-NATO Founding Act, which is still in force," the ministry's spokesman, Alexander Lukashevich, said at a news conference. US officials stated that President Putin was ready to respond forcibly to any further NATO build-up of troops in the Baltic States and they would deliver “a spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military,” the Times added. The American military figures also stated that the Russian generals allegedly raised three flashpoints that “could lead to a direct and possibly even nuclear confrontation between the two nations.” According to the Times, the potential flashpoints include any attempt by the West to return Crimea to Ukraine, NATO supplying Kiev with lethal weapons and the Baltic States, where according to the US officials, Russian security figures said they saw, “the same conditions that existed in Ukraine and caused Russia to take action there.”

Putin spokesman slams Times 'demonizing' Russia over perceived nuclear threatPublished time: April 02, 2015 Russia never threatened to use nuclear weapons over Crimea and the Baltic States, according to Vladimir Putin’s press secretary. The Kremlin official added the claims were simply 'hysteria' and a 'classic example' of the West’s demonization of Russia. “This is a classic example of the continuing hysteria and the demonization of our country. They themselves are fanning the flames concerning this. However, it is not guided by any particular facts and they themselves are afraid of what they wrote,” Peskov told reporters. The Times newspaper said that President Putin was using the threat of a “nuclear showdown” over the Baltic States, to force NATO to back away from Russia’s border. They made the claims after obtaining notes of high-level security talks between former Russian and American security chiefs.

Ukraine’s neo-Nazi leader becomes top military adviser, legalizes fighters

Published time: April 06, 2015 03:12 Ukraine’s Interpol-wanted leader of extremist group Right Sector, Dmitry Yarosh, has been appointed as an adviser to the country’s Chief of General Staff. He has agreed to legalize thousands of fighters as an assault team subordinate to the regular army. “Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff, and Dmytro Yarosh agreed the format of cooperation between ‘Pravy Sector’ [Right

Sector] and the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said in a statement. The appointment apparently comes after successful negotiations took place between the so-called Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK Right Sector) and Ukraine’s top military command regarding possible options of incorporating the armed gangs inside the defense ministry’s structure of command. The Right Sector’s armed paramilitary battalions agreed to be “subordinated to military leaders,” the ministry said. According to the statement, Muzhenko

Cees Pagina 3 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

and Yarosh stressed the need for “unity”, confirming fighters’ readiness to obey Kiev’s central command. “DUK is ready to perform common tasks with the Army, ready to obey the army leadership in matters relating to national defense against an external enemy, which enables every patriot to protect Ukraine,” Yarosh said. Yarosh, who was one of the main figureheads of the violence-seeped coup last year, is wanted by Interpol for incitement of terrorism, and extremist activities. He was placed on the international wanted list at the request of Russian authorities. Despite his notoriety, Yarosh is an elected member of the Ukrainian parliament heading the Right Sector political party, which is banned in Russia as an extremist organization Over the weekend Yarosh announced that he plans to legalize private military companies in Ukraine, and will soon introduce new legislation into the Parliament. "I think it could be a good option for people, who can’t get back from war inside their heads," the extremist leader claimed. “This will provide jobs to many people, and stability in the country, after all.” The legalization comes after Yarosh offered to reform his Volunteer Corps into a professional assault team, in response to Kiev’s demands for all paramilitary units to surrender their arms or join the country’s official armed forces. Right Sector initially refused to obey the ultimatum, calling them “traitorous” and claiming that “volunteers and patriots” will only lay down arms after Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty is restored. The so-called volunteer, as well as territorial defense and other types of privately formed and sponsored battalions, have been fighting alongside Ukraine’s regular army since Kiev began its “anti-terrorist operation” in the east of the country last April. Many of them have been noted for their cruelty and murderous tactics against the local population, such as Aidar and Azov being accused by international human rights associations of war crimes. After a ceasefire agreement was reached in February, some of these armed units refused to leave the Donbass region and have regularly violated the reached agreements.

WND Russian strategist suggests nuking Yellowstone; Rest of world would see catastrophe, but 'U.S. will cease to exist' 1

The best way for Russia to solve its problem with America would be to trigger a nuclear weapon at Yellowstone National Park and hope that would set off a supervolcano, destroying the continent, according to the chief of a Russian think tank. The suggestion is attributed to Konstantin Sivkov, who wrote in an article at the Russian language VPK News that, “As a result, the U.S. will cease to exist.” While the rest of the world, he noted, would suffer a “catastrophe,” Russia likely would suffer little “due to the distance from the eruption site, the size of the territory and the location.” While the stress of such a disaster would affect all of civilization, he wrote, such a weapon “has the possibility” of stopping “all thought of aggression against Russia.”In the alternative, he wrote, a nuke on the San Andreas fault might set off earthquakes that also could decimate large parts of America. His hope would be that it would create a tsunami a mile deep that would wash across the U.S. up to 1,500 kilometers inland. Sivkov, described as a geopolitical analyst, also accused the “West” of moving “to the borders of Russia” already. The article also was translated from Russian by the Sydney Morning Herald, where reporter Su-Lin Tan wrote, “He has a conspiracy theory that NATO – a political and military alliance which counts the U.S., UK, Canada and many countries in western Europe as members – was amassing strength against Russia, and the only way to combat that problem was to attack America’s vulnerabilities to ensure a ‘complete destruction of the enemy.’”Sivkov, the head of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems in Moscow, wrote, “Geologists believe that the Yellowstone supervolcano could explode at any moment. There are signs of growing activity there. Therefore, it suffices to push the relatively small, for example the

1 http://www.wnd.com/2015/03/russian-strategist-suggests-nuking-yellowstone/?cat_orig=us

Cees Pagina 4 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

impact of the munition megaton class to initiate an eruption. The consequences will be catastrophic for the United States – a country just disappears.”He continued, “Another vulnerable area of the United States from the geophysical point of view, is the San Andreas fault – 1,300 kilometers between the Pacific and North American plates … a detonation of a nuclear weapon there can trigger catastrophic events like a coast-scale tsunami which can completely destroy the infrastructure of the United States.”The Herald noted that Sivkov spoke at the 2013 Moscow Economic Forum and said, by 2020 or 2025, Russia would have “asymmetric weapons” in its arsenal for the attack. He lamented, according to the Herald, “The weakened economic potential in Russia, the loss of the ‘spiritual core of what was the communist idea,’ and [with] the lack of large-scale community allies in Europe such as the Warsaw Pact, Russia simply cannot compete against the NATO and its allies.”See a government map of the area of impact experts believe were affected in the U.S. during historic Yellowstone eruptions:

The analyst, also described in the article as a military strategist, told Pravda previously that the ultimate goal of the U.S. is to “destroy Russia.” And he charged that “American politicians” have participated in international crimes, but he doubts whether they will be held accountable.An online translation of the VPK article quoted Sivkov noting that for Russia, the situation now is “incomparably worse” than during the 1950s and 1960s at the height of the Cold War.That’s because “Western-oriented oligarchs and related liberal officialdom” are in charge.Significant, he wrote, would be the “political will” of the nation’s leaders.The opportunity is there, in Yellowstone, he wrote. “The power of this supervolcano” would prove “disastrous” for the U.S. “Geologists believe that the Yellowstone supervolcano could explode at any moment … Therefore it suffices to push the relatively small [explosion] … to initiate an eruption.” The National Park Service claims there have been several major volcanic eruptions in the Yellowstone area in what it says were the last two million years, the last only about 174,000 years ago when the West Thumb of Yellowstone Lake was created.A huge landslide in the 1950s created another lake on the northwest edge of the park.

Cees Pagina 5 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

The Park Service adds that the Yellowstone Caldera was created about 640,000 years ago, a region that is now 30 miles by 45 miles. “The Yellowstone volcano is still active,” the government reports. “Evidence for the activity of the Yellowstone volcano are the 1,000 to 3,000 earthquakes per year, active ground deformation, and the over 10,000 geothermal features found in Yellowstone.” It is considered a “supervolcano” because it is believed to have the capability of erupting more than 240 cubic miles of magma. On the Park Service website, there is the cryptic advice to visitors, “Nothing can be done to prevent an eruption.”

Zbigniew Brzezinski: Russian will not stop with Ukraine! Poland should prepare for war, 26

March 2015, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former adviser to US President Carter on national security, warned of the threat from the age-old enemy Russia looming over Poland. In an

interview with Polish media, he said: "There is no reason to wait, we have to act. Poland should be armed to be able to defend itself as long as possible. Because in NATO they act on a procedural order. This means that for some time it may be paralyzed. Today, more and more evident, which goals Moscow set for itself. Concerns about Russian aggression in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are justified. We should also be wary of. Poland should be armed, buy military equipment, modernize and increase its army. If you look at the dynamics of the situation, on the historical experience of the annexation of these countries in 1940 by the Soviet Union, these problems are very real and understandable. Russia is conducting an expansionist policy. Now each scenario, unfortunately, is real. Of course, a lot depends on how the situation will unfold in Ukraine. Poland has reason to expect the Russian aggression. Recently, at the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, in Moscow was a big demonstration, at which Putin made a speech. In the crowd were heard shoutings: "Finland is next and then Poland". This can not be underestimated. In the past, the two countries for some time belonged to the Russian Empire and the Russian consciousness still fixated on that". Warsaw newspaper Fakt explains from itself: "What can we do? Immediately begin to strengthen the army. Although NATO has the principle of solidarity in case of an attack on its members, there are certain procedures and the principle of unanimity. This means that in case of conflict for some time, NATO could be paralyzed by the same Greece, which is a friend of Russia and can use the veto". Department of Monitoring Kavkaz Center

100 Russian military units created in Crimea – defense minister; Published time: March 30, 2015 A lot of Russian military equipment has arrived at Ostryakovo railway station in Crimea. (RIA Novosti/Taras Litvinenko) The Russian military has put together nearly 100 units and organizations in the Crimea last year as part of the program of deploying a self-sufficient group of forces at the peninsula, Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense minister, said.

"In accordance with the presidential order, we were instructed to deploy a self-sufficient combined group of forces in the Crimean Peninsula capable of effectively protecting the interests of Russia in this area. That task had been fulfilled by the end of 2014,” Shoigu was cited as saying by Tass news agency. The minister said that “96 units and organizations were formed” by the military in the Crimea, which last March was reunited with Russia. “The force grouping created in the Crimea not only defends Russia's interests in the Black Sea area and in the Crimean Federal District, it can also successfully accomplish missions in the offshore maritime zone,” he said. Shoigu reminded that the forces of the Crimea-based

Cees Pagina 6 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Black Sea Fleet as well as Northern and Baltic Fleets provided a permanent presence for Russia in the Mediterranean. Russia is “organized full military training for the Crimean Air Force grouping, boosting the number of personnel involved in air defense,” he said. The Russian Aerospace Defense Forces will also have presence at the Crimean peninsula as “a separate command and measuring center in the city of Eupatoria is being equipped with state of the art hardware, which will enables to control all types of military spacecraft,” Shoigu said. The re-equipment of the Crimean facility with 20 new systems is scheduled to be completed in 2016, he added. According to the minister, new barracks, warehouses and parks are being constructed at five garrisons on the peninsula, while the existing buildings undergo major repairs. This spring will see the first Russian Army draft in the Crimea and the strategic port city of Sebastopol, he said. “About 500 recruits will serve in military units, including those stationed on the Crimean peninsula,” Shoigu said. Crimea rejoined Russia in March 2014 as the people on the peninsula refused to recognize the new Ukrainian authorities, which came to power a month before via a violent coup. During a referendum 96 per cent of the Crimean residents voted in favor of returning to Russia after over two decades of separation. Kiev and the West refused to recognize the Crimean referendum and labeled Crimea's secession from Ukraine illegal, which led to several waves of sanctions imposed against both Crimea and Moscow.

How Ukraine rebels rely on Russians; March 31, 2015 From the section Europe. Who are the Russian "volunteers" serving with pro-Russian rebel forces in eastern Ukraine? The BBC's Olga Ivshina obtained a rare interview with a Russian special forces soldier, who described the key role played by Russian troops in recent fighting. He has been recovering from concussion in St Petersburg, but spoke to the BBC earlier via Skype from Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Dmitry Sapozhnikov joined the rebel "Donetsk People's Republic (DPR)" forces last October, but he was wounded in heavy fighting when the Russian-backed rebels pushed Ukrainian troops out of Debaltseve in late February. Russian officials consistently deny that soldiers like him are fighting in eastern Ukraine. But Dmitry said "all operations, especially large-scale ones, are led by Russian officers, by Russian generals". "They develop plans together with our commanders. And then we fulfil the orders."

Tank reinforcements; A shaky ceasefire is generally holding, despite many violations. The strategic

Cees Pagina 7 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

town of Debaltseve fell to the rebels soon after the ceasefire was signed. The DPR says Dmitry's special forces unit of Russian "volunteers" fought on the frontline in the battle for Debaltseve. On 9 February his unit managed to take control of a main road, cutting Ukrainian forces off from their hinterland. The rebels were unable to hold the road for long, Dmitry explained. "But then Russian tanks arrived. This was a tank unit from Buryatia [a region in far-off Siberia]. Thanks to their help and their armour we managed to take Debaltseve." Dmitry had served earlier as a conscript in the Russian interior ministry forces. He said most of his duties consisted of guarding transport infrastructure in St Petersburg. But after joining the rebels in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region he was assigned to special forces duties. He had performed well at a training camp there.

Later on, he said, a Russian who had served in the French Foreign Legion trained them.

Crimea deception Russian regular units have been crucial at difficult moments for the rebels, when operations required disciplined and well-trained troops, Dmitry explained. Western leaders, the Ukrainian government and Nato say there is clear evidence of Russian military involvement in the fighting.

According to US Lt Gen Ben Hodges, a senior commander in Europe, nearly 12,000 Russian troops are operating inside Ukraine. Russia has rejected those allegations. "These figures, which are plucked out of the air, of course demoralise and disorientate the international community," said Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich. Dmitry recalled that a year ago Russia had also denied using its armed forces to seize control of Crimea. But recently Russian state TV showed a documentary in which President Vladimir Putin admitted to planning the annexation of Crimea from the start - well before Russian and local paramilitary forces took control."I think it will be the same here, in Donbas. First they deny it, but then they will admit it," Dmitry said. The rebels are well equipped with Russian tanks and other heavy weapons

'Defending Russians' He suspects that there is a "secret agreement", whereby "the West turns a blind eye to Russian involvement and Russia pretends it doesn't notice American and European soldiers operating on the Ukrainian side". Some 35 British military personnel have started training Ukrainian soldiers in the southern city of Mykolaiv and will spend about two months in the country. The UK is providing some non-lethal equipment and the training focuses on medical aid and defensive tactics. It will not change the military balance of the opposing sides. More than 6,000 people have died since fighting erupted in Ukraine last April, the UN estimates - but it believes the real figure could be considerably higher. Dmitry says the fighting in eastern Ukraine has completely changed his understanding of life. Now he is wondering whether to return. He is still sure he did the right thing, defending "the interests of the Russian-speaking population and Russians in Donbas". That is a view shared by many Russians, though the experiences of people like Dmitry have prompted searching questions about the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

'Brussels Was ... Asleep': Bildt Assesses EU's Mistakes Regarding RussiaMarch 22, In an interview with RFE/RL in Brussels, former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt talks frankly about the mistakes made by the European Union with regard to Russia, what he thinks the Russian president's next moves are likely to be, and why the bloc needs to engage more deeply with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. Bildt spoke on March 22 with RFE/RL's Rikard Jozwiak on the sidelines of a Brussels Forum held by the German Marshall Fund.

Cees Pagina 8 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

RFE/RL: Looking back at the run-up to the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius in November 2013, all the way up to today, what could the EU have done differently in its policy toward the East?Carl Bildt: I think we should have reacted more strongly towards Russia when they started to misbehave in the summer of 2013. Clearly, when they started the sanctions against Ukraine, we didn't see clearly the implications of that, and I remember that [former Polish Foreign Minister] Radek [Sikorski] and myself were trying to alert Brussels and Brussels was more or less asleep. Would that have made a difference? I don't know. But that is clearly a mistake.RFE/RL: You and Sikorski are not foreign ministers anymore. You were considered to be hawkish towards President Vladimir Putin's Russia and at the same time strong supporters of the EU's Eastern Partnership. When you look at the EU today, do you still think there is the same commitment towards the Eastern Partnership and the same hawkishness towards Putin's Russia?Bildt: I think that the commitment is clearly there. One of the good things that we did -- going back to 2008, because in 2008 two things happened -- there was the Union for the Mediterranean and there was the Eastern Partnership. While the French were keen to have the Union Mediterranean with a separate arrangement or whatever, we were keen to make the Eastern Partnership completely integrated with the [EU] institutions. That was very good. It is now solidly part of the EU institutions [in terms of] the calendar and what not. So the commitment is clearly there. I have no doubts about that.On [your other question], Radek and myself, we were sort of ahead of the game in a sense that we -- too late perhaps, but earlier than others -- saw what was going to happen, saw where Russia was heading. I think more or less everyone has caught up with us by now. There were those who said that 'Putin is not going to do this, Putin is not going to do that,' and since then Putin has done virtually everything. So, unfortunately, I would say we have been proven right.RFE/RL: Is the EU still behind the curve?Bildt: That is a difficult question. Because what has been proved the case is that Russia is somewhat more unpredictable. Will Putin, sort of, let his tanks roll in the direction of Odesa and Kyiv? I wouldn't say that it's excluded, but I don't think it is likely at the moment. Do we focus enough attention on trying to find out? We are focusing far more attention now than we used to do. Should we focus more? Yes, I think we should.RFE/RL: What do you think will be Putin's next move?Bildt: I think at the moment he is keen to build up the enclaves -- these "people's republics" virtually without peoples, by the way, but nevertheless -- strengthen them militarily. I think he would like them to be able to undertake military operations more on their own because he knows the political price associated with him sending in regular Russian Army time after time is too high. He is waiting to exploit weaknesses either in Ukraine or in the West. He believes that he has time on his side and that the West will get bored with the entire thing.My best guess -- and I am saying this with the reservation that everyone has been wrong, including myself -- is that at the moment, for a couple of months, [there will be a] calming down, consolidating, then accusing Ukraine of violating the Minsk agreement, trying to get out of sanctions, hoping there will be division inside Ukraine, hoping there will be divisions inside the West, and then being ready to exploit those weaknesses.RFE/RL: So what should the EU do right now?Bildt: I think the most important thing is what was done by the European Council [on March 19-20] -- that is, essentially, to say the sanctions [against Russia] are going to be in place all this year. It has not been legally said like that, but politically that was the decision that was taken. I think that is a very good signal. Then I think we should shift focus to strengthen Ukraine in different ways. I think that the IMF program was very important. I think it is important that other countries are coming [forth] on top of that -- Sweden did, the U.S. is

Cees Pagina 9 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

doing [it], but other European countries should be doing that as well. And then make certain that we truly help them with all the reforms necessary because Ukraine is going to go through a tough time and they need our solidarity, sympathy, and support. These things, I think, are the priorities."RFE/RL: The EU Eastern Partnership summit in Riga is coming up in May. Looking at the draft declaration, it looks like it is going to be a very ambitious summit, as such. Should the EU be more ambitious at least towards the three countries -- Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine -- that are slowly approaching the EU?Bildt: I think the most important signal coming out of Riga is going to be that we stay the course. There has to be a deeper engagement with the three perhaps in the form of helping them in implementing these [association] agreements. These agreements are very ambitious agreements that will require a lot of efforts by them. I think that they probably need more help than we have envisaged so far in actually doing that.Then the critical issue is also how we engage with others -- what do we do with Armenia? How do we treat Azerbaijan and Belarus in terms of their somewhat lukewarm commitment to human rights, to put it very mildly. That needs to be addressed.RFE/RL: So, no light at the end of the tunnel? In other words, no EU perspective for them?Bildt: The light at the end of the tunnel, in my opinion, is there anyhow -- Article 49 [of the EU treaty stating that any European country can become a member of the EU] applies. If we talk about a membership perspective, Article 49 of the Treaty of Rome applies. Then there are sort of, as you know, [various] degrees of enthusiasm for that inside the [European] Union and that can only be tested when any of these [aspiring] countries are ready to take that particular step. That is quite a number of years [from now] in the future.

‘EU has very poor capability in terms of understanding Russia’s concerns’Published time: March 25, 2015 A report on EU-Russia relations by a UK House of Lords committee admits that the EU totally miscalculated Moscow’s reaction to the developments in Ukraine because of a lack of Russian experts, says Lord Peter Truscott. Britain's House of Lords has been debating a report suggesting relations between the EU and Russia have reached a critical level. The text looks at tensions caused by events in Ukraine, and concludes Moscow has been gradually turning away from Europe. RT: What was the main message to come out of this debate about the EU's relations with Russia? Peter Truscott: The first thing that was said was the EU totally miscalculated Russia’s reaction to the Association Agreement which was proposed with Ukraine and also Ukraine joining NATO. The EU was totally unprepared for the hostile reaction that both those proposals had. The report from the EU Committee of the House of Lords also said that Britain and other EU member states have got a very poor capability in terms of understanding Russia’s concerns, and there is a real lack of Russian experts both in Britain and across the EU. RT: Have relations reached a point of no return, or is there still hope of a turnaround? PT: I think there is still a hope of a turnaround because one of the things that the EU Select Committee report in the House of Lords said was that it’s very important to maintain a dialogue and engagement with Russia. One of things that could be done is that the EU could reconvene summits with Russia and there should be further discussions on the Minsk agreements that have been put forward. And even the Foreign Office minister today said that Britain has been taking a very hard line as far as the crisis in Ukraine is concerned, talked about the importance to maintain trade links with Russia, cultural links, and also maintaining

Cees Pagina 10 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

diplomacy and engagement with Moscow. So there is a desire to maintain relations with Russia. But everyone accepts at the moment that relations are at a pretty low point. There is a lot of work that needs to be done. RT: The EU has pledged to drop sanctions if the agreements made in Minsk to bring peace to Ukraine are fulfilled. But is Russia the only side responsible for ensuring peace? PT: It was interesting during the debate. It was quite a balanced debate, it was a quite fair report, I think. There were people taking a hard line on the crisis in Ukraine, and some people are trying to understand a bit more Russia’s position and where Russia was coming from. One of the peers in the debate said: “Well, the Minsk agreement is not just about Russia fulfilling the terms, but also Ukraine shouldn’t try to change the terms of the Minsk agreement either.” Although, there was a talk about sanctions being maintained until Minsk was fulfilled by the end of the year, the point was also made that Ukraine has to stand by its side of the bargain, it’s part of the agreement as well which talks about decentralization, more rights for Eastern Ukraine, and more a degree of autonomy for the Eastern Ukraine. RT: British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon insisted today that NATO members like Romania and Britain will not be intimidated by Russia's threats.But isn't it this rhetoric by NATO members that is causing tension in the first place? PT: I don’t think that any sort of this rhetoric is very helpful on either side. The idea that Russia is sort of saber rattling and that NATO members feel intimidated by Russia - it is a nonsense. When you consider NATO’s budget is ten times larger than Russia’s I don’t think NATO as an organization feels intimidated by Russia at all. In fact, Russia is showing through the various maneuvers that it has been undertaking that it is not going to be browbeaten by the West. But I do agree that it would be helpful if all sides turn down the rhetoric.

RUSSIAN THREAT. Russian ambassador threatens Denmark with atomic bombardment 22 March 2015, 12:24 Russian thug ambassador in Denmark by the name of Vanin said that Copenhagen’s accession to the NATO’s missile defense shield will be seen by Moscow as a threat. "I do not think that the Danes are fully aware of the consequences if Denmark joins the US-led missile defense shield. If that happens, Danish warships become targets for Russian nuclear missiles", said Russian thug to Charlist, hard-core anti-Islamic newspaper of KGB Jyllands-Posten on March 20. In August 2014 Denmark announced plans to equip one of its military frigates with a radar to become part of a missile defense shield. Moscow considers the shield as a threat for its planned attack on Europe. NATO explains away that the shield will provide protection against rogue states. "Denmark would become part of the threat to Russia and its relations with Russia will be damaged", threatens a thug ambassador Vanin. Danish Foreign Minister Lidegaard in respond comments called Vanin’s speechmaking unacceptable. "Russia knows very well that NATO’s missile defense system is defensive. We disagree with Russia on many important things, but it is important that the tone between us remains as positive as possible", miserably explains away Lidegaard Head of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs of Denmark Gjerskov also questioned the legitimacy of Russia's attempts to intervene in defense policy of Denmark. "The missile defense shield is directed against rogue states and individuals, which can threaten us in the case of the acquisition of modern weapons", explains away Gjerskov. It is to be recalled that a few days ago Putin in an interview shown on TV, he by street language way threatened the west with nuclear weapons in the new (the first was in 1783) Russian annexation of the Muslim Crimea. Meanwhile in Moscow, a native deputy ministrer of the Putin's gang "Ministry of Defense", a certain Antonov ordered the West "not to make Russia a monster". Department of Monitoring Kavkaz Center

Christian Taliban? Ukraine nationalist craves jihad against Russia, reports Intercept

Cees Pagina 11 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

March 20, 2015 A Ukrainian ultranationalist of Polish descent wants to turn the armed conflict in the east of the country into a crusade against Russia. The Chechen war veteran wants to amalgamate Orthodox Christianity with Islamic jihadism against Russia. The leader of the Ukrainian ‘Bratstvo’ (Brotherhood) political organization, Dmitry Korchinsky (Dmytro Korchynsky), intends to create a sort of Christian Taliban to wage a holy war against Russia, the Intercept reports. Korchinsky believes his mission is to establish an original ideology that makes an unholy alliance between messianic Christianity and jihadist Islam, citing the examples of Hezbollah, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The dualism of the new religious movement could be beneficial for Ukraine, says Korchinsky, who sees his community as a tool to carry out higher order tasks that the Ukrainian government doesn’t formally control

Ukraine's forced re-absorption into Russia's sphere of influence hardly tilts the balance of power in Europe towards Moscow. To put it bluntly, the game is not worth the candle: it is not worth risking World War III to keep Ukraine out of Russia's clutches. The Obama Administration's confrontational policy towards Russia over Ukraine is dangerously misguided on two counts. Not only is Ukraine of marginal geopolitical significance to the United States, but the White House badly needs Moscow's cooperation on the far more salient issues of counter-proliferation, counter-terrorism, and counterbalancing a rising China. Most recently, the Obama Administration helped catalyse Russia's invasion of Ukraine by fanning the flames of political opposition to pro-Russian Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovich, which resulted in his overthrow. Having forfeited several easier opportunities to build a stable bilateral relationship with Russia that furthers rather than retards vital US interests, Washington has little choice now but to seize the much harder one that is presently on offer. (RSIS No. 055/2015 dated 16 March 2015)

March 15, The Ukrainian armed coup was organized from Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview for a new documentary aired Sunday. The Americans tried to hide behind the Europeans, but Moscow saw through the trick, he added. “The trick of the situation was that outwardly the [Ukrainian] opposition was supported mostly by the Europeans. But we knew for sure that the real masterminds were our American friends,”Putin said in a documentary, 'Crimea - The Way Home,' aired by Rossiya 1 news channel. “They helped training the nationalists, their armed groups, in Western Ukraine, in Poland and to some extent in Lithuania,” he added. “They facilitated the armed coup.” Putin said this approach was far from being the best dealing with any country, and a post-Soviet country like Ukraine specifically. Such countries have a short record of living under a new political system and remain fragile. Violating constitutional order in such a country inevitably deal a lot of damage to its statehood, the president said. “The law was thrown away and crashed. And the consequences were grave indeed. Part of the country agreed to it, while another part wouldn’t accept it. The country was shattered,” Putin explained. The Russian president personally ordered preparation of the Crimean special operation the morning after Yanukovich fled, saying that “we cannot let the [Crimean] people be pushed under the steamroller of the nationalists.” “I [gave them] their tasks, told them what to do and how we must do it, and stressed that we would only do it if we were absolutely sure that this is what the people living in Crimea want us to do,” Putin said. He added that an emergency public opinion poll indicated that at least 75 percent of the people wanted to join Russia. “Our goal was not to take Crimea by annexing it. Our final goal was to allow the people express their wishes on how they want to live,” he said. “I decided for myself: what the people want will happen. If they want greater autonomy with some extra rights within Ukraine, so be it. If they decide otherwise, we cannot fail them. You know the

Cees Pagina 12 van 13 12-4-2015

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

results of the referendum. We did what we had to do,” Putin said. The Russian president said the move to send additional Russian troops to secure Crimea and allow a referendum to be freely held there prevented major bloodshed on the peninsula. “Considering the ethnic composition of the Crimean population, the violence there would have been worse [than in Kiev]. We had to act to prevent negative development, not to allow tragedies like the one that happened in Odessa, where dozens of people were burned alive,” Putin said. He acknowledged that there were some Crimean people, particularly members of the Crimean Tatar minority, who opposed the Russian operation. “Some of the Crimean Tatars were under the influence of their leaders, some of whom are so to speak ‘professional’ fighters for the rights of the Tatars,” he explained. But at the same time the “Crimean militia worked together with the Tatars. And there were Tatars among the militia members,” he stressed.

On the one hand, Russian policies have so infuriated the Crimean Tatars that some of them are now listening to Islamist radicals, allowing Moscow to claim that they are becoming an advance guard for the Islamic State or the Taliban—thus providing yet another argument for those who oppose challenging Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory.

And on the other, because Crimean Tatars are likely more upset with Moscow now than they were a year ago, immediately after the peninsula’s annexation, both the Russian occupation authorities and the Russian central government see ever less reason to provide the Crimean Tatars with the help they promised. Such half-hearted support by Moscow will not make Crimean Tatars any more pro-Russian, but it will allow the Russian government to claim that it tried and that any remaining problems are, in fact, the fault of the Crimean Tatars themselves (Ukraina.ru, March 2).

Cees Pagina 13 van 13 12-4-2015