Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 29-Oil-Jihad-10

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Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 29-Oil-Jihad-10

A little-known US senator named Barack Obama said in 2002: “I don’t oppose all wars. […] What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. […] A war based not on reason but on passion.”

When bin Laden dramatically addressed the United States in a video released on the eve of the 2004 elections, he boasted of his "bleed-until-bankruptcy" plan for defeating America. His focus on the economy is a primary reason that the terrorist leader reversed his original pledge to keep oil off limits as a military target. In his 1996 declaration of war against America, bin Laden said that oil was not part of the battle because it was "a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state," but in a December 2004 audiotape he reversed this promise. Declaring Western countries' purchase of oil at then-market prices "the greatest theft in history," he stated: "Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]."

Bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri called for al-Qaeda fighters to "concentrate their campaigns on the stolen oil of the Muslims" in a December 2005 video. Likewise, Sawt al-Jihad, the online magazine of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, claimed in February 2007 that cutting the U.S.'s oil supplies "would contribute to the ending of the American occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan."

Oil is the black gold that funds Isis’ black flag - it fuels its war machine, provides electricity and gives the fanatical jihadis critical leverage against their neighbours.But more than a year after US President Barack Obama launched an international coalition to fight Isis, the bustling trade at al-Omar and at least eight other fields has come to symbolize the dilemma the campaign faces: how to bring down the “caliphate” without destabilizing the life of the estimated 10 million civilians in areas under Isis control, and punishing the west’s allies?

Isis’ oil strategy has been long in the making. Since the group emerged on the scene in Syria in 2013, long before they reached Mosul in Iraq, the jihadis saw oil as a crutch for their vision for an Islamic state. The group’s shura council identified it as fundamental for the survival of the insurgency and, more importantly, to finance their ambition to create a caliphate.

It is estimated that organization earns $1.5m a day from crude trade

Trucks are vital to ISIS because they carry oil to buyers in Turkey. ISIS needs the revenue to pay its jihadis, buy weapons, bribe enemies, and fund jihad attacks elsewhere, such as the November 13 strike in Paris that killed over 120 surprised diners and concert-goers.

Reports that Saudi Arabia maintains current high production levels of oil despite plummeting oil prices to drive U.S. oil “frackers” out of business is a prime example of mistaking an effect of Saudi policy for the cause of Saudi policy.

The “fracking” theory overestimates the capability of Saudi Arabia to respond to the significant outward shift in the supply curve of oil resulting from the application of fracking technology. More significantly, it underestimates the threat that ISIS poses to Saudi rulers, and the effectiveness of lower oil price as a weapon against ISIS.

In addition to supporting opposition forces fighting ISIS, Saudi Arabia has an additional The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.

–Winston ChurchillCdW Intelligence to Rent of 8 03/05/2023

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weapon it can deploy against ISIS, even if it is as blunt a weapon as the global price of oil. It was a little less than a year and a half ago that the price of oil began its decline with the Saudi decision to keep pumping despite increasing global supplies of oil. That was only several months after ISIS consolidated its control of several important oil fields in eastern Syria, and then later in western Iraq. At that time, much of the oil ISIS pumped found its way into international trade. The price was sufficiently high to entice third-parties to transport and sell the oil.

While the amount of ISIS oil is a drop in the bucket relative to overall global oil production, it was one of the top sources of revenue for ISIS—revenue with which to pay soldiers, buy arms, prosecute its war, and pay for traditional government functions in areas it controls.

A few months after ISIS consolidated control of Syrian oil fields and began exporting oil, Saudi Arabia announced that it would maintain oil production rather than seek to maintain the stability of the global price of oil. As a result of the Saudi decision to keep pumping oil, the price has decreased by over 60 percent during the subsequent year and a half. The Saudi strategy appears to have had the intended effect. Because of the high price a year ago or so, most ISIS oil made it to the black market, according to Shwan Zulal, Managing director of Carduchi Consulting and an associated fellow at the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security, in a recent interview with Al Jeezera. Today, however, most of the oil stays in ISIS’s territory. It’s put to use, to be sure, but it generates significantly less revenue for ISIS to use in support of its goals. And pressure on ISIS oil is set to increase even more with recent reports are that the U.S. and allies have recently increased attacks on oil fields and transportation under ISIS control. If and when Saudi Arabia no longer perceives ISIS as a threat, and begins once again to increase price, absent a simultaneous increase in the demand for oil, we won’t see the price of oil hit highs that they were just last year again for a long time. Whatever the result, however, the Saudis do not have North Dakota (or Texas) frackers in their line of sight. It’s not about the U.S. It’s about ISIS.

The weakness of President Barack Obama’s tentative air-offensive against the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) in northern Syria was exposed November 18 by Russian video that showed hundreds of intact ISIS-run oil tankers parked nose-to-tail near a lightly damaged oil refinery.

Dec 01, Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford, said that the Islamic State terrorist organization is not contained, and has not been at anytime since 2010.These remarks directly contradict a statement made by President Obama prior to the Paris terrorist attacks, when he asserted, “we have contained them [Islamic State].”“We have not contained ISIL,” Dunford said in response to a question from Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA)

The Islamic State has been “tactically” contained in some areas, but “strategically they have spread since 2010,” Dunford remarked in his testimony before the House committee.

Dunford added that the Islamic State not only threatens Iraq and Syria, but has shown a willingness to wage jihad in other countries, such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon.

When asked by Rep. Forbes whether the United States currently has a strategy to defeat The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.




the terror group, Dunford said that “the right components for a strategy” against the Islamic State “are in place.”

During his testimony, the Joint Chiefs Chair applauded U.S. forces for going after the Islamic State’s oil cartels. “We estimate that approximately 43 percent of the revenue stream that ISIL derives from oil has been affected over the past 30 days,” he said.

So, for example, the US herded the ruthless jihadists away from some Kurdish areas in north Iraq and Syria, but allowed large ISIS convoys to advance on and take over Palmyra, and allowing ISIS to drive hundreds of oil tankers, with stolen Syrian oil, up into Turkey.

Dec 02, he U.N. notes that ISIS in Libya has yet to grow rich like ISIS in Syria and Iraq, but has obtained sufficient funding to sustain its operations. "Member states indicated that ISIL was preparing to launch a more organized 'taxation' system in Sirte, and that it even envisaged establishing a state-like system in Libya, inspired by its quasi-bureaucratic organization in the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq," the report said.The report also notes there is concern that it could eventually cash in on the human smuggling networks transporting migrants from Africa and the Middle East through Libya to Europe, including one route which runs through Sirte.

The report states that it will be more difficult for ISIS to raise money from oil in Libya than in Syria and Iraq, and that it has so far followed a strategy of sabotaging Libya's oil infrastructure rather than trying to profit from it.

"ISIL currently lacks the capacity to secure, hold and manage oil fields and related oil infrastructure in Libya. In addition, Libya has no established domestic black market for smuggled crude, and the location of ISIL in Libya would make it difficult to access potential markets in the region," according to the report.

The Paris killings of 13 November are about to help realise ISIS’s two main objectives. The first is to create a coalition of “apostates”, “infidels” and “Shia renegades” who will come to fight it in Iraq and Syria, then in Libya. The second is to make the majority of westerners believe that their Muslim compatriots could be a fifth column hiding in the shadows, a “domestic enemy” in the service of the jihadists.

** Who is aiding the Islamic State sale of oil that provides major financing for its terrorist operations?Disagreement between the United States, its allies and Russia has spotlighted a public relations war over Syria, along with the actual fighting on the ground and in the air. However, as in that bloody other war, facts are hard to come by 1.

FINANCING OF THE TERRORIST ORGANISATION ISLAMIC STATE IN IRAQ AND THE LEVANT (ISIL)

http://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/reports/Financing-of-the-terrorist-organisation-ISIL.pdf

1 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-public-relations-battle-getting-in-the-way-of-fixing-real-problems-in-syria/2015/11/30/f979ba02-95e9-11e5-b5e4-279b4501e8a6_story.html

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent of 8 03/05/2023





Regards Cees *** Inside Isis Inc: The journey of a barrel of oil

Isis controls most of Syria’s oil fields and crude is the militant group's biggest single source of revenue. Here we follow the progress of a barrel of oil from extraction to end user to see how the Isis production system works, who is making money from it, and why it is proving so challenging to disrupt.By Erika Solomon, Robin Kwong and Steven Bernard•October 14, 2015

Where the oil is extracted. Isis’s main oil producing region is in Syria’s eastern Deir Ezzor province, where production is somewhere between 34,000 to 40,000 barrels a day, according to locals. The group also controls the Qayyara field near Mosul in northern Iraq that produces about 8,000 barrels a day of heavier oil that is mostly used locally to make asphalt.

It is difficult to determine a definitive oil production figure for Isis-controlled areas. But it is clear production levels have dropped in the Syrian fields since they were taken over by the militants. Most oil fields in the area are aging and despite the group's efforts to recruit skilled workers, it does not have the technology or equipment needed to maintain them. Even so, they continue to provide Isis with its most lucrative income stream.The price of the oil depends on its quality. Some fields charge about $25 a barrel. Others, like





al-Omar field, one of Syria’s largest, charge $45 a barrel. Overall, Isis is estimated to earn about $1.53m a day.

Selling crude oil. Though many believe that Isis relies on exports for its oil revenue, it profits from its captive markets closer to home in the rebel-held territories of northern Syria and in its self-proclaimed “caliphate”, which straddles the border between Syria and Iraq.The group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the oil fields. In a highly organised system, Syrian and Iraqi buyers queue in their tankers at the entrances to fields, often waiting for weeks.

Oil refineries. Traders have several options after they pick up their cargo:• Take the oil to nearby refineries, unload it and return to queue at the field—usually done

by traders under contract to refineries.• Sell their oil on to traders with smaller vehicles, who then send it to rebel-held northern

Syria, or east towards Iraq.• Try their luck selling to a refinery or sell it at a local oil market. The biggest are near al-

Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border.Most traders prefer to sell the oil on immediately and return to queue at the fields. They can expect to make a profit of at least SL3,000 (about $10) per barrel.

The bulk of oil refineries are in Isis-controlled Syria. The few in rebel-held territories have a reputation for lower quality output than the refineries in the east. The refineries produce petrol and mazout, a heavy form of diesel used in generators – a necessity as many areas have little or no electricity. Because the quality of the petrol can be inconsistent and is more expensive, mazout is in greater demand. Refining is done by local residents who constructed their rudimentary refineries after Isis's prefabricated "mobile" facilities were destroyed by coalition air strikes. The owners make purchase agreements with the militants for their products. There are also signs that in recent months Isis may have returned to refining. In interviews with traders, the FT discovered the group had recently bought five refineries.





At Isis refineries, the former owner stays on as a "front" man. The group supplies the oil; in return it takes all mazout production and splits the profits on petrol production with the original owner. Traders say Isis has its own tankers that supply crude to its refineries from oil fields regularly. The group also appears to retain many of its earlier contracts with unaffiliated gas stations and other refineries.

Fuel to market. Once the oil is refined, it is bought by traders or taken by dealers to markets across Syria and Iraq. At this point, Isis is almost completely disengaged from the trade. About half the oil goes to Iraq, while the other half is consumed in Syria, both in Isis territories and rebel-held areas in the north. There are fuel markets throughout Isis-controlled areas and rebel-held Syria, often located close to refineries. Most towns have a small fuel market where locals buy and sell oil. But traders supplying these smaller markets often buy their oil in bulk from larger hubs.

There are larger Isis-controlled markets in towns like Manbij or al-Bab in Aleppo’s eastern countryside. Traders here must present a document proving they have paid zakat, a tithe, to buy oil without tax. Traders from rebel-held Syria who have not paid the tithe, must pay a tax of SL200 per barrel, or about $0.67.Some privately-owned markets also levy taxes. Al-Qaim market, one of the largest in the region, charges buyers and sellers about SL100 ($0.30) per barrel of crude purchased.

In Isis-controlled Iraqi cities like Mosul, the fuel is sold at mini “petrol stations” with two pumps. They are ubiquitous on Mosul street corners and locals usually name the oil according to the part of Syria it came from. This helps buyers determine the quality of the oil and compare prices.





Two types of fuel are sold in rebel-held Syria: pricier fuel refined in Isis areas, and cheaper locally refined fuel. Residents typically buy a mix of both, and use the cheaper variety for generators and keep better quality variety for their vehicles.The importance of Isis oil to those living in rebel-held areas of Syria is one reason why the US-led coalition has been reluctant to target the group's trade routes. The coalition says it is wary of alienating local populations by bombing fuel now critical for their daily lives.

Fuel smuggling With Isis only concerned with making its profits ‘at the pump’, smuggling fuel into neighbouring countries can be good business for entrepreneurial Syrians and Iraqis. Syrian smugglers say it has been declining in recent months, not because of tighter border controls but because the sharp fall in international oil prices make it unprofitable. But some determined smugglers continue their trade.Most of the smuggling from the Syrian side has gone through opposition areas in the northwest. Locals buy fuel at the market, pour it into jerry cans and carry it over the border on foot or, in mountainous areas, by donkey or on horseback.In Iraq, the bulk of smuggling through the northern Kurdistan region has been blocked, so locals say the route now goes south through Anbar province towards Jordan.When oil prices were high, smugglers loaded larger jerry cans (50-60 litres) of oil into metal tubs or small row boats and, using ropes attached to each river bank, pulled their cargo across the river and into Turkey. On the other bank, tractors picked up the supply and took it to a local informal market, where it was picked up by large trucks, which sold it on. Some Syrian and Turkish border towns have co-operated by burying small rubber tubes under the border, such as at Besaslan. In recent months, Turkey has stepped up border patrols and are constantly digging out the makeshift pipelines. A popular crossing point for smugglers carrying jerry cans of fuel on their backs has been from Kharbet al-Jawz in rebel-held Syria to Guvecci in Turkey. This has been largely shut down by Turkish forces, but the remote terrain makes it impossible to stop. In places like al-Sarmada and al-Rai, smugglers have crossed the border by mule, donkey or horses that can carry four to eight jerry cans at a time.

UNSRC 2249 (2015) “5. Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law, in particular with the United Nations Charter, as well as international human rights, refugee and humanitarian law, on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL also known as Da’esh as well as ANF, and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al-Qaida, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the United Nations Security Council, and as may further be agreed by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) and endorsed by the UN Security Council, pursuant to the statement of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) of 14 November, and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria;”

Dec 01, LONDON—A contest for dominance in Europe’s oil market is heating up The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.




between the world’s two biggest oil exporters—Saudi Arabia and Russia—as they contend with persistently low crude prices and the prospect of Iran’s post-sanctions return. In recent months, Russian oil companies and the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, have been aggressively discounting their crude to Europe. Saudi Arabia is now targeting countries like Sweden and Poland, where Russia has long been dominant and the Middle Eastern kingdom hasn’t had a major presence.

Nov 2015, Oil is Libya’s lifeblood. The country has virtually no other industries or formal employment; oil is its only business. According to the World Bank, oil revenues account for over 95 percent of the government’s budget. And since about 80 percent of Libyans are on the government payroll, it is no exaggeration to say that oil feeds and clothes the Libyan people. No other country is so dependent on a single resource. As the Libyan government split in half, most institutions split as well, with mirror versions being set up in the East and the West.

At a U.N. Security Council meeting in March, diplomats passed a resolution declaring the most important of Libya’s state agencies — especially the National Oil Company — would remain independent and deal impartially with both rival governments.

So far, most foreign oil companies — including the largest, such as Britain’s BP, Italy’s Eni, and France’s Total — have chosen to continue dealing with Tripoli over the internationally recognized government in Tobruk.

On the ground, the conflict involves far more than just the two bickering governments. Libya is composed of dozens of tribes, each with its own shifting interests and allegiances. “There’s a question about the extent to which the political forces actually have control over the important militias on the ground,” said Chivvis. “I think all this comes down to who controls the oil; it comes down to alliances on the ground. Which political forces control which sites within Libya.”

Dec 03, Hours after Britain's Parliament authorized military action in Syria, its Tornado warplanes struck oil fields in eastern Syria that help finance IS. "This strikes a very real blow at the oil and the revenue on which the Daesh terrorists depend," Defense Secretary Michael Fallon told the BBC, using the Arabic acronym for IS. Both the U.S.-led coalition and Russian warplanes have struck the extremists' oil facilities and Russia has drawn heated international attention to the issue by accusing Turkish authorities of profiting from oil trade with IS — allegations Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has strongly denied.

The Russian allegations came after last week's downing by Turkey of a Russian warplane near the Syria-Turkey border. Turkey insists the plane had violated its airspace, but Russia vehemently rejects that contention. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his state-of-the-nation address, accused Turkey of "a treacherous war crime" and bitingly suggested "Allah must have punished Turkey's ruling clique by depriving it of sense and reason."Putin also accused Washington and its allies of turning Iraq, Syria and Libya into a "zone of chaos and anarchy threatening the entire world" by supporting change of regimes in those countries.

"We must leave all arguments and disagreements behind and make one powerful fist, a single anti-terror front, which would work on the basis of international law under the aegis of the United Nations," Putin said.




Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 29-Oil-Jihad-10

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