wyaldidobis riskis analizi integrirebuli menejmentisTvisdrm.cenn.org/Trainings/Spatial data for...

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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION

wyaldidobis riskis analizi

integrirebuli

menejmentisTvis

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wyaldidobis riski

wyaldidobis riski ukavSirdeba wylis

masebis iseTi raodenobis dinebas, romlis

gadazidvis saSualeba ar aqvs mdinaris

kalapots, wyali gadmoedineba mdinaris

napirebze da xdeba kalapotis midamoebis

datborva. wyaldidoba ukavSirdeba

materialur da sixcocxlis danakargs,

aseve uaryofiT zegavlenas axdens

ekosistemaze.

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•

•komerciuli Cavardna

• momsaxureobis Cavardna

•

datborvis siRrme

wylis nakadis sicqarewylis donis matebis siCqare

talRebis zemoqmedeba

• datborvis wyaro, mizezi

• winaswarmetyvelebis sandooba

• winaswari Setyobineba

social• informireba wyaldidobebis Sesaxeb

• mosaxleobis labiluroba

• Senoba-nagebobebis tipi da amsala

• socialuri mdgomareoba

• dacvis tipebi

• d• c

•• riskis qveS mdebare qoneba

• klimaturi cvlilebebi

• cvlilebebis mimarT mgrZnobeloba

• moklevadiani da grZelvadiani

zemoqmedeba

ekonomika

riskis qveS myofi infrastruqtura

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• sasoflo-sameurneo danakargi

wyaldidobis tipi•

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•

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wyaldidobis

winaswarmetyvelaba

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•

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socialuri faqtori•

•

•

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wyaldidobisgan dacva

•• miRebuli standartebi

• dacvis kondicia

regionis, mdinaris istoria

•

garemo•

•

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wyaldidobis riski

istoriuli wyaldidobebi

faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben

wyaldidobis riskze

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wyaldidobis riskis analizi.

istoriuli midgoma, yvela tipis riskis da yvela tipis wyaldidobis analizi garkveuli regionisTvis. ar moicavs erTi tipis an eqstremalur wyaldidobis Seswavlas

hidrologiuri midgoma sixSiris analizi sxvadasxva tipis da gamomwvevi mizezebis wyaldidobis Seswavla,

hidravlikuri modelireba wylis gavrcelebaze da mis qcevaze

ekonomikuri zaralis gaangariSeba gaangariSebis Sedegad SesaZlebelia e.w. ngrevis albaTobis mrudis SemuSaveba sxvadasxva tipis an individualuri wyaldidobisTvis garkveuli regionis farglebSI Tu mTeli qveynisTvis

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riskis menejmentis procesis diagrama.

A. Drab ( 2003) Concepts of flood risk analysis methodology. In: Safety and Reliability – Bedford & van Gelder (eds)

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riskis analizis struqtura.

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I. riskis analizis

komponentebi

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I. terminologia -1.

safrTxe (H): albaToba imisa, rom mocemuli

movlena moxdeba mocemul regionSi drois

garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi.

riskis qveS myofi elementebi: mosaxleoba,

kerZo da saxelmwifo sakutreba,

ekonomika, da sxva obieqtebi, romlebic

ama Tu im movlenis riskis qveS imyofebian

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I. terminologia -2.

mowyvladoba (V): danakargis xarisxi riskis

qveS myofi elementebisTvis garkveuli

movlenis Sedegad. gamoixateba masStabSi 0

(araa zarali) 1-mde (totaluri zarali).

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I. terminologia -3.

Risk (R): garkveuli movleniT

ganpirobebuli mosalodneli zarali

(materialuri, adamianis, emociuri d.a.S).

riski mocemulia rogorc danakargis

albaToba.

RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (=Consequence)

€/year = (1/return period) * € of a specific event

RISK = Hazard * Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)

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II. riskis analizis komponentebi-Floodsite.

http://www.floodsite.net/

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terminologia Floodsite.


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meTodologia Floodsite:danakargis dasaangariSeblad.

RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (=Consequence)

identifikacia

ngrevis kategoria.

wyaldidobis safrTxis

Sefaseba da sxvadasxva

ganmeoradobis da

intensivobis wyaldidobebis.

riskis qveS myofi

elementebis kartireba;

mowyvladobis analizi;

riskis ricxobriv

maCvenebelSi agdayvana.


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integrirebuli midgoma.

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identifikacia.

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identifikaciis fazebi

wyaldidobis problemis

identifikacia;

riskis gansazRvris masStabis

dadgena;

xelmisawvdomi resursebi da

iaraRebi;

monacemTa bazebi da sxva.

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masStabi.

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masStabis maxasiaTeblebi.

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ganvsazRvroT gamarTlebuli

midgoma.

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safrTxis Sefaseba da

zonireba.

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wyaldidobis safrTxis Sefaseba da zonireba.

ganvsazRvroT: adgilmdebareoba, sixSire da

magnituda (intensivoba) saSiSi movlenis.

Sedegad gvaqvs: (potenciuri) safrTxis ruka/

mgrZnobelobis ruka / safrTxis zonirebis ruka,

safrTxis maxasiaTeblebis rukebi magaliTad:

intensivobis, sixSiris gadanawilebaand frequency.

rogor:

RS imijebis interpretacia & savele samuSaoebi; hidravlikuri modelireba ( 1D and 1D/2D)movlenis sixSiris analizi d.a.S.

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wyaldidobis maxasiaTeblebi.

wylis siRrme;

wyaldidobis xangrZlivoba;

wylis siCqare;

sedimentacia;

datborvis sixSire;

wylis xarji;

wylis donis mateba;

sezonuroba;

ziriTadi

faqtorebi,

romlebic

zegavlenas axdenen

ngrevaze

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wyaldidobis

gavrcelebis ruka

DEMwylis siRrmis ruka

datborvis scenarios

SemuSaveba

Tiel-case-1

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datborvis saSiSroebis ruka

sxvadasxva ganmeoradobisTvis

Muhybuddin, 2004

Hazard Class: Max water depthHigh hazard 5 mMedium hazard 2.5 mLow Hazard 1 mNo Hazard 0 m

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riskis qveS myofi

elementebi.

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riskis qveS myofi elementebi.

ganvsazRvrot datborvis teritoriaze

arsebuli yvela struqtura da movaxdinot

maTi kategorizacia. (masStabis mixedviT)

gansazRvreT pirveli sarTulis simaRle;

(siRrmis dazianebis mrudisTvis)

wylis SeRwevadobis done.

gansazRvreT yvela obieqtis sidide;

sivrcul monacemebs daumateT monacemTa

abzebi mosaxleobaze, Senobis tipze,

obieqtis fasi d.a.S.

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riskis qveS myofi elementebi

kartireba.

mosaxleoba:mudmivi:

– mosaxleobis raodenoba

– simWidrove

– asakobrivi kompozicia

cvladi

– aqtiuroba

– sivrceSi gadanawileba

– droSi gadanawileba ( dRe-Rame)

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riski sicocxlisTvis

mosaxleobis sicocxles emuqreba safrTxe Tu:

wylis dinebis siCqare maRalia;

wylis done iwevs Zalian swrafad (wyalmovardna),

wylis siRrme didia;

bunebrivi an xelovnuri dambebis ngreviTaa gamowveuli datborva. rogorc aseTi, msgavsi konstruqciebi ukve risk faqtoria;

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siRrme-siCqare-usafrTxoebis

damokidebuleba

1: D = 1 – 1.55 v + 0.595 v2

2: D = 3.25 e -1,835 v

3: D = - 0.238 + 1.227 / v4: D = 4,7 e -0,642 v

5: D = - 0.28 + 5.65 / v

D= Depth in mv = Velocity in m/s

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wyaldidobis SedegebiT miRebuli

danakargis dadgenis parametrebi.

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Senobebi.

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sxvadasxva saxis monacemebis

kartireba aero fotodan.

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riskis qveS

myofi

elementebi

holandiuri

kategorizaciis

meTodi

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riskis qveS myofi

elementebis ruka

miwaTsargeblobis ruka

monacemTa bazebi!!!

Tiel-case-2

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mowyvladobis analizi

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mowyvladoba.

mowyvladoba (V): danakargis xarisxi riskis

qveS myofi elementebisTvis garkveuli

movlenis Sedegad. gamoixateba masStabSi 0

(araa zarali) 1-mde (totaluri zarali).

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mowyvladobis analizi

mowyvladobis analizi aris procesi,

mowyvladobis dadgenis ramodenime

tipis (yvelaze gavrcelebuli) Senoba-

nagebobis garkveuli movlenis mimarT;

miznad isaxavs davadginoT

urTierTdamokidebuleba mowyvladobis

xarisxsa da safrTxis albaTobis

Soris.

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struqturis tipebi.

Mud wall and Floor with Straw of paddy Roof material

RCC wall and Floor with RCC Roof material

©Sreyasi Maiti.

erTi da igive movlenis Sedegad romeli

ufro daziandeba?

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rogor ganvsazRvroT mowyvladoba?.

analitikuri meTodi;

empirikuli meTodi, rodesac viyenebT

wina movlenebis Sedegebs da maT

safuZvelze vadgenT ama Tu im tipis

mowyvladobas

savele samuSaoebi, rodesac vaTarebT

gamokiTxvas.

distanciuri zondirebis meTodebi.

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mowyvladobis rukebi.

Vulnerability function agriculture.

Tiel-case-3

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zianis da danakargis gaTvla.

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zianis da danakargis gaTvla

identifikacia da gazomva.

(fulad erTeulebSi agdayvana)

ziriTadi pirveladi, meoradi

Damage = Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)

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pirveladi efeqtis

magaliTebi

sikvdilianoba da dazianeba mosaxleobaSi;

pirutyvis da Sinauri cxovelebis

sikvdilianoba da daziaqneba;

struqturebis da maTi SigTavsis dazianeba;

infrastruqturis dazianeba;

sasoflo sameurneo savargulebis

dazianeba da ganadgureba; etc.

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meoradi daZianebis

magaliTebi

usaxlkarod darCena;

biznesis Seferxeba da SeCereba;

komunaluri momsaxureobis Seferxeba;

Temis finansuri xarjebi (gasufTaveba,

ganaxleba, remonti)

saxelmwifos mier gaweuli Tanxebi

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mniSvnelovani da

aramniSvnelovani zarali

danakargi, rogorc bunebrivi movlenis

Sedegi SeiZleba iyos mniSvnelovani an

nakleb mniSvnelovani

mniSvnelovania zarali rodesac, fuladi

sididis gaTvla SesaZlebelia

naklebad mniSvnelovania zarali rodesac

fulad erTeulSi gamosaxva araa

SesaZlebeli.

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riskis gaTvla

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riski (Rt)SesaZlebeli adamianis sikvdilianobis daTvla,

dazianebuli adamianebis raodenobis gaTvla,

sakuTrebisTvis miyenebuli zaralis daTvla.

riski ganisazRvreba rogors danakargis albaToba.

RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (Consequence)

€/year = (1/return period) * € of a specific event

RISK = Hazard * Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)

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prob

abili

tyflo

od s

tage

damage

damage

discharge

discharge

riskis Semsubuqeba.

Mitigation:Mitigation:

Lowering of the probability (see )

Higher discharge and less frequent;

At the same flood stage less damage

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