Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2014 Part 9-7-1-South Asia to Far East

From Capt (Ret) C de Waart. Please feel free to share in Confidence.

While we are looking somewhere else; The AQ battle space and playing Field.

Islamic State and a South Asian Caliphate, Islamic State has its eyes on South and Southeast Asia. The threat is long-term, but should not be ignored.

By SK Chatterji November 23, 2014 The Islamic Caliphate is no longer virtual reality; it’s a tangible experience. Islamic State (also known as ISIS and ISIL) has the basic essentials that make it a serious threat. It has territory, it has the military capability to hold on to its territory, and it has a system of governance, however demented it may be. Of course, its barely contested march has now been stalled by air strikes, the recapture of the Baiji refinery has been hailed by Iraqis as a changing of the tide, and the Peshmerga are gradually coming into their own at Kobani. Still, with the exception of Baiji, there has as yet there has been no substantial reversal of the gains that the Islamic state has made. The caliphate’s leadership is ambitious, ruthless and singularly focused on spreading its distorted vision of political Islam. Al-Qaeda, for decades the beacon for Islamists, has taken a different approach to jihad, with a strategy that has involved widely dispersed cells that provided ideological guidance, arranged funding, training and administrative support while allowing local jihadi leaderships to marshal the men for operations. In contrast, Islamic State – which has split from al-Qaeda, creating a schism in the global jihad – raises its own forces, selects its own objectives, funds its own operations, and controls execution. While Al-Qaeda’s methods drew strength from covert operations, the operations of Islamic State are akin to a conventional battlefield. Al-Qaeda has also not employed violence as extensively as Islamic State has done. Islamic State clearly has no reservations on that score. It has regularly posted grisly decapitation clips to the Web. It has provided captured women to its rank and file. It has proposed that the enslavement of prisoners would be within the tenets of its faith. It has stoned women to death for sex outside marriage. It has, in short, engaged in an endless litany of cruelty. An ambitious leader like Abu Baku al-Baghdadi can hardly be expected to limit the caliphate’s geographical ambitions to parts of Syria and Iraq. An Islamic State map of the caliphate covers North Africa and extends through West Asia, south of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea to stretch across the Central Asian republics, the entire Indian sub-continent and beyond to Malaysia and Indonesia. South and Southeast Asia offer the Islamic State many choices, made more appealing by the fact that some of these countries already have their own homegrown Islamist insurgent movements and terror groups. Although Islamic State’s ultimate aspirations are unrealistic, some of its targets in Asia are vulnerable, most notably that cradle and crucible of terrorism on the continent, Pakistan. Bordering Afghanistan, where terrorist violence is already resurgent with NATO thinning out, Pakistan is a promising base for Islamic State in South Asia. It also offers a huge bonanza that Islamist movements would willingly bleed for: nuclear weapons. Although Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are guarded by a professional army, the degree to which the Pakistan Army itself has been radicalized is not easily quantifiable. After all, this is the same Army that sends its officers for tenures in the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Whether these officers return to the army with or without any radical leanings is anyone’s guess. Pakistan-based terror groups seem to be leaning more and more towards Islamic State. Tehrik-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) is a fractured entity today. More and more of its members are openly declaring their allegiance to Islamic State. The recluse Taliban supremo, Mullah Omar, and the staid al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Jawahri are losing ground. Afghanistan also offers fertile ground for terror. The Afghanistan Taliban shares with Islamic State a strategic approach in which both prefer control and domination of territory as

the prime objective. However, the Afghanistan Taliban would like to retain its primacy in Afghanistan. It may not want to be an Islamic State surrogate. Its long association with al-Qaeda is another obstacle. Afghanistan also offers contiguity with Iran, a Shia nation. With its virulent anti-Shia bias, Islamic State would obviously see Afghanistan as an attracting base for launching attacks. But of course Iran could conversely play a greater role in halting the Islamic State surge; the success of the nuclear deal being a pivotal issue. Bangladesh has been fighting terrorism vigorously for some time. It is unlikely that Islamic State will find purchase there. Similarly, Myanmar is unlikely to be hospitable. The regime’s handling of its Rohingiya minority reflects its stance, and other insurgent groups in Myanmar are unlikely to provide support to a group that is both culturally and religiously alien. Further east lies Indonesia, home to the largest Muslim population in the world, with a history of terror groups trying to expand their presence and a state apparatus that has fought them relentlessly. Sizeable numbers of Indonesian youth have gone to join the Islamic State. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Indonesia in October 2014 and emphasized the steps to be taken to ensure Islamic State does not draw fighters and funds from the region. Malaysia, with its history of insurgencies, would also be on Islamic State’s radar. In August 2014, Malaysian police arrested 19 suspects on charges of plotting multiple attacks. Their vision was a Southeast Asian caliphate to include Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore. There are reports of Malaysian youth joining the Islamic State and even a few women travelling to Syria to serve as comfort women. While Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has denounced the movement, the undercurrent of sympathy for the terrorist outfit is certainly there. As for India, it is home to the world’s third largest Muslim population. Kashmir has long been a festering issue. Although Indian forces have effectively broken the back of terrorist groups in Kashmir, these groups enjoy cross-border patronage, funding and support from Pakistan. With TTP displaying signs of another split there are distinct possibilities of sub-groups ready to provide a base in Pakistan for Islamic State to ultimately launch operations in India. To do that, however, the Islamic State will need to have arrangements with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the favored terror group of the ISI. Indian groups like Students Islamic Movement of India and Indian Mujahideen would surely offer support for Islamic State. Every state in South and Southeast Asia with terror movements, either simmering or operational, is at risk of an upsurge in terrorist activity. Even the Uyghurs in China could find inspiration. Though Islamic State does not have the wherewithal to be expanding its operations so early, it would be unwise to ignore the potential threat.

The longer Islamic State is able to maintain its caliphate and fly its flag, the more acute the threat becomes. The flag inspires radicals to arms and spreads the message that ruthless violence is the most effective method for spreading the caliphate’s ideology and territory. One important steps Asian countries could take to stymie the ambitions of Islamic State is to share intelligence. Regional governments must also come down heavily on the narcotics trade, which continues in the region and finances terror organizations. It’s time for West Asian donor regimes that have for decades funded the growth of radical Islam to realize that their own survival is at risk. For some high net-worth people in these countries, funding political Islam is a combination of sport and atonement for having deviated from their own religious tenets. Large numbers of jihadi commanders meet with these billionaires and leave with millions of dollars to spread instability well beyond the Gulf. With Islamic State now at their gates, couple with American pressure, perhaps these financiers might be willing to scale back their funding. Extreme poverty fans radicalism. The denial of basic human rights, disastrous economic conditions, and deprivation help to convert young people into radicals and terrorists. States will have to address such issues as the corruption that blocks government spending from reaching the targeted populace. The most likely point of entry for the Islamic

State into South and Southeast Asia is Pakistan, a nation already enflamed. The leading Pakistan newspaper Dawn recently published an editorial, “Miss the warning signs now, or fail to deny it space within Pakistan, ….” Space beyond Pakistan, too. There is also a rationale for imposing sanctions on states that export terror or fund the growth of radicalism and intolerance. Until and unless the free world buries its differences and nations work together as partners in the quest to defeat radical Islamists then the fight against terrorism will only be at best a matter of shifting battlefields, without ever truly defeating radicalization and terror globally. SK Chatterji is a Brigadier (Retired) of the Indian Army.

South Asia: Battle Ground Between ISIS & al-Qaeda; November 7, 2014 Since the video statement by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri on September 3 announcing al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, South Asia has become one of the new battlegrounds for jihadi support between al-Qaeda and ISIS. South Asian terrorist groups and clerics are split between supporting Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State or remaining loyal to the al-Qaeda core out of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Who is more deadly to the stability and security of South Asia? The picture below presents that ISIS has the lead but it depends on what security risks a state is willing to pay. The first South Asian jihadist group to break with al-Qaeda was the Tehrik-e-Khilafat-o-Jihad in July of 2014. Following suit many commanders split with the TTP to form Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, which now has taken an oath of allegiance to ISIS and urged other South Asian jihadist to follow suit. Many other South Asian groups have also taken the pledge to ISIS including Ansar-ul-Tawhid Fi Bilad Al Hind (AuT), Tahreek-e-Khilafat (the Caliphate Movement), Mujahidin Indonesia Timur, Abu Sayyaf, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. While many of these groups are breaking ranks and joining the ISIS fight, al-Qaeda is sticking to its core messaging tactics. In late October the first edition of Resurgence, an al-Qaeda magazine was released. This publication urged “Muslims of India to play a proactive role in the Jihad in Afghanistan… so that they may build a better future for coming generations.” The magazine went on to preach that inevitably Indian Muslims we see their future is linked with the success of Afghan jihad. New Delhi security is concerned of an AQIS attack after a video statement from AQIS chief Abdur Rehman Al Hindi urging attacks on foreigners in India and to scare them off by either beheading them, pushing them off of a building, or at the very least spit on them. AQIS attempted (and failed) its first attack on a Pakistani navy yard in Karachi and was one of three groups that claimed responsibility for the suicide attack on the Pakistan border that killed dozens. But there has not been any significant momentum for AQIS since Zawahiri’s announcement. On the other hand, ISIS is winning the battle of hearts and minds of young jihadi in South Asia. From the Philippines to Kashmir, there is evidence of ISIS propaganda, flags, and signs. On October 22, pro-ISIS chalking appeared on walls all throughout Karachi, and on October 25, ISIS flags were seen flying at Kabul University. ISIS proliferated throughout South Asia in the same way it is throughout the Middle East and North Africa. With a strong reliance on social media, ISIS has to do little to inspire existing groups to pledge allegiance to the new caliphate. Even by late August, before the proliferation of beheading videos, an Indian security agency reported that up to 100 Indian Muslim men are believed to be fighting for ISIS in Syria and Iraq.Looking at the scorecard above, al-Qaeda is losing in South Asia. So on which group do South Asian states focus their security? It is more likely that AQIS will be responsible for the next large-scale attack. Because of past attempts and projected capabilities, it can be estimated that it would not be on the scale of the 2008 attack in Mumbai, but deadly nonetheless. And while AQIS focuses its attention on engineering attacks in the region, ISIS remains dedicated to solidifying power in Iraq and Syria but has ground support and energy in the region. In the end, both groups are toxic and have potential to destabilize many already weak security regions in South Asia.

Lone Wolf Terrorism May Rear Its Head In Southeast AsiaChan Hoi Cheong November 28, 2014 in Malaysia, Regional, Security On 22 July 2011, the Norwegian government quarter in Oslo was turned into the scene of a deadly attack by right-wing extremist, Anders Behring Breivik. In late October, Canada saw itself falling victim to a lone wolf terrorist attack right at its seat of democracy in Ottawa. The attack by Michael Zehauf Bibeau near Parliament Hill left a soldier guarding the National Memorial dead. The attacker was killed inside the parliament thereafter. Two days earlier, a similar attack took place in Quebec where Martin Rouleau-Couture rammed his car into two military personnel, killing one of them. Both of the suspects converted to Islam recently. As the investigation of the suspects’ links to terror groups continues, the prevalent argument seems to be consistent with the fact that these attackers acted alone after being influenced by radical Islam. This particular trend has grown more worrisome recently with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or “ISIS” in the Middle East (or Islamic State – IS) that is catalysing on such style of attack to spread its influence globally. Commonly referred in the media as “ lone wolf terrorism ”, this term has recently generated a significant amount of debate among policymakers, academicians and society, particularly in the western world where most of these high-profile attacks took place. While Southeast Asia has largely spared such attacks so far, this does not mean that it will escape with the spread of radical ideas by groups such as ISIS in the future.Nothing new about one wolf terror phenomenonDespite experiencing an increase in the past few years, lone wolf terrorism phenomenon is not new and can be traced back to before the advent of ISIS. It was the global terror network, al-Qaeda that popularised this style of attack by adopting it as a strategy to target those within the western society. The organisation repeatedly encouraged individuals to launch such attacks as a way to terrorise society as retaliation to what western governments are doing in the Middle East and North Africa. Examples of such attacks include the shooting at Fort Hood in Texas by Major Nidal Malik Hassan that left 13 dead, Mohamed Merah who killed seven people in French city of Toulouse and the Boston Marathon bombing by Dzhokar Tsarnaev and Tamerlan Tsarnaev killing three people and wounding 260 others. All of these attacks share a number of similarities and one of the main ones is that they were motivated by radical Islamic beliefs as well as inspired by group such as al-Qaeda.While Islamic fundamentalism has often been blamed, the shooting and bombing by Norwegian-born Anders Behring Breivik in Oslo and surrounding Utoeya Island in 2010 on the other hand highlighted that the extremist right-wing beliefs could also be a push factor in such attack. To put it simply, there is no clear reason that drives a person to launch a lone-wolf terror attack. While it is near impossible to trace the root of the problem, this is also more challenging for the intelligence community to pinpoint when and where exactly an attack will take place. This is because as lone wolf terrorist acts alone and is very less likely to leave any trace of communication for intelligence agencies to intercept. In 2011, then United States Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said that, since Washington is confronted with smaller scale plots, lone-wolf attack is also “difficult to prevent because there

is nothing to intercept”.

With lack of preparation, communication and training, most experts agreed that lone-wolf terrorists are also less likely to inflict significant loss of lives with the exception of Anders Breivik who killed dozens in Norway. However, one should also remember that terrorism is employed an instrument by rational actors who also aim to spread fear in society. For terrorist organisations, the lone wolf’s ability to generate huge media attention despite causing low casualties, is regarded as a success and therefore makes this style of attacking more appealing compared to sophisticated and organised ones. By relying more on lone-wolf terrorists, organisations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda are also no longer required to co-ordinate large scale attacks, which are often costly and risky, but instead beamed out inspiring messages through social networking sites to individuals seeking inspiration. The counter-terrorism measures that are more effective in deterring large-scale attacks are another reason why these organisations have moved toward lone-wolf terrorism today.Why Southeast Asia needs to brace itself for the rise of lone wolf terrorismSoutheast Asia is no stranger to high-profile terrorist attacks as seen during the Bali and Jakarta bombings in Indonesia as well as the 2004 Manila ferry sinking in the Philippines, just to name a few. With the rise of ISIS more recently, the region has once again been confronted with another terrorist threat that can derail the rapid economic growth the region has achieved in the past decade. Based on various intelligence reports, dozens if not hundreds of radical Muslim followers from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines are thought to have gone to Iraq and Syria and join ranks with ISIS fighters in their effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. A Malay-speaking unit has also reportedly been formed in another intelligence report published in November. While there is an urgent need to prevent more fighters from heading abroad, regional governments should also halt the radicalisation process by ISIS via its links with various local militant groups such as Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT). Apart from that, ISIS’ effective usage of social networking sites could also inspire an individual who has no connection with any of the aforementioned groups but wants to join the Jihadi cause. In August, Malaysian police announced that it had thwarted a plot by ISIS sympathisers who wanted to bomb a Carlsberg factory at the outskirts of its capital, Kuala Lumpur. Whether they are linked to a particular group or not, this plot serves as a clear reminder that attacks could come from anyone who is on the same page with ISIS. This means lone wolf terrorism no longer represents an elusive threat but a style of terrorist

attack that could become a preferred modus operandi by ISIS or other militant groups in the region.

Islamic State 'outbidding' al-Qaida in South Asia; 20 Nov 2014, In this undated file image posted on June 30 by the Raqqa Media Center of Islamic State, fighters from the militant group parade in Raqqa, Syria. The group is is trying hard to acquire manpower and support in Asia. © AP The landscape of violent extremist Islamism is changing in Asia. Al-Qaida, once a growing and potent threat, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, is now a shadow of its former self. In the late 1990s, al-Qaida co-ran Afghanistan with the Taliban. It also had a strong presence in Pakistan and close ties with many of that country's myriad jihadi groups. Now al-Qaida's core group is down to a few dozen members. Security operations against the group in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere have cut its numbers and operational capacity substantially. The organization is fighting for survival in Pakistan, its last real refuge in Asia. The same cannot be said of the Islamic State group. The militant group, which has had spectacular success in Syria and Iraq, is now making inroads in many parts of Asia, but particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

South Asian threat; It is in South Asia that Islamic State poses the greatest threat to stability and security outside the Middle East. Its flags and T-shirts have been displayed at rallies in Kashmir and other parts of India, and a small number of Indian Muslims have traveled to fight with the group in Syria and Iraq. The group also has a small presence in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which have never been fertile ground for al-Qaida. While the number of Islamic State recruits from these countries is counted only in the dozens, it is much higher than al-Qaida was able to manage. Islamic State is establishing ever-stronger footholds in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it is winning the allegiance of some jihadi groups. The Pakistani Taliban, a formidable coalition of jihadi groups that was closely allied with al-Qaida until recently, has splintered. Several member organizations have joined with Islamic State and are recruiting thousands of new members. One of the most fearsome and powerful Pakistani groups, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which has been waging a vicious sectarian campaign against Shiite Muslims in Pakistan, is now reported to be in discussions with Islamic State to form an alliance in Pakistan. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, one of the most dangerous jihadi groups based in Pakistan, was once so close to al-Qaida that some thought of it as a wing of that group. It has also switched allegiance to Islamic State. Al-Qaida is losing its base of jihadi support in Pakistan as Islamic State makes gain after gain. Even parts of the Afghan Taliban are affiliating with the group. A recent attack on civilians and security forces in Ghazni Province included Afghan militants flying the flag of the Islamic State group. The attack resulted in more than 100 deaths. Three questions; Several mid-level Taliban commanders have declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Islamic State. This means they have abandoned their allegiance to Mullah Mohammad Omar, the spiritual leader of the Taliban movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan and of al-Qaida. The appearance of Islamic State fighters among the Taliban ranks represents a sea change in the jihadi landscape in Afghanistan and Pakistan and raises important questions. First, why is Islamic State trying so hard to recruit and build coalitions in Pakistan and Afghanistan? Second, why has it been so successful in these countries? Third, what does the relative decline of al-Qaida and the ascendancy of the militant group mean for security in South Asia? Islamic State is trying so hard in South Asia because it needs to acquire manpower and support for its efforts to spread its caliphate. Its strategy has been to conquer Syria and Iraq in order to build an Islamic state, re-establish the caliphate, and expand it to comprise the entire Islamic world. The group is focusing on fighting on the ground in a primarily conventional fashion, unlike al-Qaida, whose strategy

has been to hit the West with terrorist attacks to get it to withdraw from the Muslim world; the Islamic State group hopes this will cause established regimes to fall and usher in the Islamic States. Islamic State's strategy thus depends on a large fighting force. It has focused on building its brand and organizational infrastructure in Afghanistan and Pakistan because these areas are already rich in jihadi groups that have the capacity to supply fighters and challenge existing state authority. Afghanistan and the Pashtun areas of Pakistan, in particular, are home to a high degree of Islamist radicalization, with tens of thousands of young men under arms. If the militant group can bring these fighters under its sway, it will have taken an important step toward gaining control of another significant chunk of territory. Recruiting efforts in Pakistan and Afghanistan have been successful because Islamic State is a winning brand. It has done what al-Qaida tried and failed to achieve. It has routed its Islamist enemies in Syria and Iraq. It has established an Islamic state based on the precepts of al-Qaida's ideology and declared a caliphate. For many fundamentalist Muslims, this is the realization of a dream. But Islamic State is also much better at recruiting than al-Qaida has ever been. It masterfully employs many means of getting its message out, including social media, print media and face-to-face recruiting. All this is done in local languages, most often with Pakistanis and Afghans doing the messaging.Bleak "bidding" ; This is dangerous for countries across Asia because the competition between Islamic State and al-Qaida for recruits, funds, support and attention in Pakistan and Afghanistan is leading to a phenomenon known as "outbidding," in which terrorist groups seek to prove they are more lethal, committed and successful than their competitors. One sign of this happening in South Asia is the formation of a new branch of al-Qaida in September this year called al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent. This is an attempt by al-Qaida's leadership to outbid Islamic State in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, by taking up causes that are popular with jihadist Muslims, such as attacking Indian and U.S. targets. AQIS has already launched attacks in Pakistan, one of which was an attempt to hijack a Pakistani warship and use it to attack U.S. vessels. Al-Qaida attacks in India have the potential to draw India and Pakistan into a conflict, but outbidding is also dangerous because it drives up the frequency, scale and audacity of terrorist attacks. As U.S. and coalition forces complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan and the security vacuum in that country increases, violence from al-Qaida and Islamic State will increase. The latter's success in Syria and Iraq is energizing Afghan and Pakistani jihadis. With weak state legitimacy and capacity in Afghanistan and Pakistan, jihadi groups in those countries believe that victory is within reach. That means more violence for an already troubled region. Karl Kaltenthaler is a professor of political science at the University of Akron and adjunct professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University.

‘Mad' al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri targeting youths, says Bangladesh judge; bdnews24.com 2014-11-13 A top Bangladesh judge has expressed 'serious concern' over national security, saying the al-Qaeda and its chief Ayman al-Zawahiri are 'targeting' and 'brainwashing' the youths. Justice AHM Shamsuddin Choudhury made the remark on Thursday while hearing a petition against the bail of Md Asif Adnan, 26, a suspected member of the radical Ansarullah Bangla Team. The Appellate Division judge said militant conspiracies against the state, the prime minister and other important persons were a matter of concern and a threat to the state's security. A four-member bench, led by the Chief Justice, has fixed Sunday for its verdict on Adnan's bail. The High Court's order has been put on hold until then. Police filed a case against Adnan after his arrest in September. A High Court bench on Monday granted him bail until the police report was filed. Rokanuddin Mahmud represented Adnan while Attorney General Mahbubey Alam argued for the state at the hearing. Adnan's father Abdus Salam Mamun, lawyer and former High Court judge, was present in court. Justice Choudhury said

his generation had people like Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, Che Guevara as their model. "But some of the youths these days are misled by the madness and words of Zawahiri and are following him," he said. He said the trend was particularly pronounced among those from rich, educated families, private universities, and with English-medium background." Zawahiri is brainwashing and the youths are walking into this trap. Zawahiri is mad, and youths are the target of his madness," the judge said. He said he was saddened by the fact that the son of a former judge had to be in court. "Our brother (the ex-judge) had to come here for his son. We feel really sorry," he said. Police, in September, arrested another man along with Adnan. Dhaka City police's Joint Commissioner Monirul Islam said the two were inspired by al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri's speech and planning to go to Turkey and Syria. "They wanted to take part in the so-called Jihad and wanted to preach their own philosophy after their return," he said. Police said the detainees were from "influential families". "One of their associates came to Bangladesh from the UK to strengthen the al-Qaeda network," said Assistant Commissioner Mahmud Naser Jony of the detective police. In early September, Zawahiri released a video in which he announced the al-Qaeda was opening a branch in the Indian subcontinent. Police arrested British national Samiun Rahman alias Ibn Hamdan based on information given by Adnan. Police claimed he had come to Dhaka to recruit 'militants'.

13 Nov 2014, Fighters from the al Qaeda-affiliated Turkistan Islamic Party have allegedly been photographed on the battlefields of northern Syria. The picture above was posted to Twitter by Israfil Yilmaz, a popular jihadist figure fighting in Syria. Yilmaz wrote in the tweet: "No passports, undercover through more than 6 countries. Lions from the Turkistan region: Al Hizb Islami Turkistan [Turkistan Islamic Party ]." Yilmaz is a Dutch citizen of Turkish origin. He is a former member of the Royal Dutch Armed Forces, as well as the Turkish military. On his now suspended Ask.fm account, he claimed to have been in Syria for more than two years and he does not consider himself a member of any group. According to From Chechnya to Syria, Yilmaz has previously fought alongside Sayfullah Shishani's jamaat, a predominately Chechen faction of the Al Nusrah Front. It is also clear from an interview he conducted with a Dutch channel (the video is in Turkish) that Yilmaz has acted as a military trainer. The Turkistan Islamic Party operates in China as well as Central and South Asia and is thought to have scores of fighters in Pakistan's tribal areas and in Afghanistan. Its fighters have been killed by Coalition forces in Afghanistan and by US drone strikes in Pakistan. A senior al Qaeda leader has eulogized Turkistan Islamic Party operatives killed in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For more information on the group's operations, see the LWJ report, Turkistan Islamic Party touts suicide bombings in Afghanistan.

The Maldives-Syria Connection: Jihad in Paradise?Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 22November 21, 2014 By: Animesh Roul The Maldives, the Muslim-majority archipelago country in the Indian Ocean, is going through a tumultuous time, facing increasing Islamist activities at home, an exodus of radicalized youth to join the jihad in Syria and a growing domestic clamor for the implementation of Shari’a law. This has been accompanied by the targeted abduction and intimidation of local Maldivians who hold progressive ideals and secular values. Although the country is better known as a romantic honeymoon destination, these developments – which include the establishment of the “Islamic State of the Maldives” (ISM) group – have exposed the deep extremist undercurrents in Maldivian society and are increasingly drawing the attention of local and international security forces. Syrian Connections; In October 2013, some of the first cases of radicalized Maldivian youths attempting to travel to Syria were reported when two youths were detained at the

Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) in the capital Malé (Haveeru Online, June 1). Since then, about 100 Maldivians are believed to have joined the Syrian conflict and most of these are said to have joined up with al-Qaeda’s official affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (or al-Nusra Front/the Support Front). Several recent incidents shed further light on the ongoing jihadist exodus. In October, Sri Lankan security officials detained three Maldivians, including an 18-year-old woman, who were suspected of planning to travel to Syria through Turkey. Separately, another Maldivian family – comprising a 23-year-old radicalized man, his mother and his 10-year-old sister – was reported to have travelled to Islamic State-held territory in Syria or Iraq, from where they sent a message home stating that the Maldives is a “land of sin” and an “apostate nation.” These statements were perhaps an early indication that jihadists might someday regard the Maldives itself as a legitimate target (Minivan News, October 30). Meanwhile in November, it was reported that at least six more people from the Fuvahmulah and Meedhoo areas of the Maldives had travelled to Syria to join the Islamic State organization, illustrating that the flow of jihadist recruits to the Middle East continues (Minivan News, October 30; November 6). As of November 8, at least five Maldivians have reportedly died in Iraq and Syria fighting alongside Jabhat al-Nusra. The dead have been identified, under their assumed jihadist aliases, as Abu Turab, Abu Nuh, Abu Dujanah, Abu Ibrahim and Abu Fulan. Of these, Abu Turab and Abu Nuh were reportedly killed in late May; both died in Syria fighting alongside Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic Front’s (IF) Suqur al-Sham brigade (Minivan News, May 27). Prior to his death, Abu Turab sent a message via YouTube that he was joining the jihad to establish an Islamic State and to implement “Allah's Shari’a.” Urging all Muslims to join the struggle, he said, in his native Divehi language, that “Enemies of Allah are spreading democracy all over the world, as fast as they can. So in return for every person they lead astray, I want to – even if by myself – kill as many enemies of Allah as I can.” [1] Some of these militants appear to have also made an impression on other foreign fighters; an Australian jihadist with Jabhat al-Nusra has feted Maldivian fighters as “courageous and well-mannered mujahideen.” [2] As with other foreign jihadists in Syria, social media is vital for relaying their message to audiences back home. A key social media tool used by Maldivian jihadists is their online media forum, Bilad al-Sham Media (BASM), is run by a group of Maldivians in Syria to publicize the activities of Maldivian jihadists and their perceived heroics on the battlefield. According to information circulated in the BASM-run blog, the group currently fighting in Syria are mostly young university students of Maldivian origin who have travelled to Syria through a third country with the aim of “liberating” the Islamic world and establishing the global Islamic caliphate. The managers of BASM appear to be closely involved in fighting units; the latest slain Maldivian fighter killed in early November was Abu Fulan, who was a disciple of another slain Maldivian identified as Abu Dujanah. Dujanah was BASM’s founding editor. According to reports, Abu Dujanah was killed in September this year and since then BASM has been run by another group of Maldivian mujahideen. [3] Abu Dujanah was later identified as Yameen Naeem, from the Maafannu area in Malé; he had decided to travel to Syria while studying in Egypt (Haveeru Online, November 8; Minivan News, September 2). Amid these fast unfolding developments, the establishment of the so-called “Islamic State of Maldives” (ISM) group, which claims to be a local organization affiliated with the Islamic State organization, emerged in the last week of July. This coincided with the Maldives’ Independence Day celebrations and an Islamic State flag was hoisted for the first time in Malé’s Raalhugandu area in the same month. Islamic State flags were also seen during an early August protest march against the Israeli attacks on Gaza City. On September 5, hundreds of pro-Islamist protesters, including veiled women and children, marched in the streets of Malé holding Islamic State flags and banners, calling for the implementation of Shari’a law in the country. Some of the banners read: “We want the laws of the Quran,”

“Islam will eradicate secularism” and “Shari’a will dominate the world” (Minivan News, September 6). Domestic Radicalism ; The flow of recruits to Syria has been accompanied by radical elements in the Maldives becoming more assertive and violent. Most notably, this has involved taking liberal and progressive individuals hostage or threatening them with serious consequences if they speak out against radical Islamism. The latest victims of such Islamist vigilantes are the journalist Ahmed Rilwan, who has been missing since early August, and a web administrator of the Ranreendhoo Maldives pro-opposition Facebook page (Minivan News, November 13). In addition, Islamist-linked criminal gang members (e.g. from the Bosnia, Kuda Henveiru, Dot and Buru gangs) have participated in attacks on scholars, journalists and free speech activists for their allegedly “anti-Islamic” activities (Minivan News, September 22). The gangs have also issued threats through text messages on mobile phones, threatening to violently attack anyone they regard as “laa dheenee” (non-religious) (International Federation of Journalists, August 8). Physical attacks on such dissenters are also common, and there are also reports of Islamist vigilantes abducting and interrogating young men in order to force them to identify online activists advocating secularism or professing atheism through social media sites (Minivan News, June 9). Although politicians in the Maldives have engaged in a public blame game over the visibly deteriorating situation, there is little doubt that the root cause of the rise in visible Islamist radicalism is the growing popularity of Salafist ideologies among some sections of the population, notably the younger generation. In particular, years of grooming by visiting clerics and radical preachers have played a key role in fermenting radicalism and anti-Western sentiment in the archipelago. Known radical English-language preachers with substantial online presences such as Bilal Phillips, Zakir Naik and Anjem Choudary have also notably played a key role in popularizing radical Islam in Maldives, a trend which is now merging into rising support for transnational jihadism. [4] At present, however, the government seems oblivious to the serious long term implications of this grassroots Islamist surge and it is likely to continue to attempt to sweep such issues under the carpet, even as evidence grows that the Islamic State organization’s brand of Islam has now reached its shores. Animesh Roul is the Executive Director of Research at the New Delhi-based Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict (SSPC).

Prominent Malaysians fear country losing moderate Muslim credentials as it moves towards fundamentalism

Posted 11 December 2014, 17:07 AEDTBy Peter Lloyd and Tanya Nolan Malaysia's credentials as a moderate Muslim country are being called into question as some prominent residents fear the nation is lurching towards fundamentalism.Najib Razak has been criticised for openly praising Islamic State militants. (Credit: AFP) This week a group of 25 leading Malaysians signed an open letter expressing deep concern about the growing influence of extreme Islam in their country. It is a fear openly expressed by Malaysian academic and writer Farouk Peru, who said the country was sliding towards fundamentalism and even violence. "Malaysia has now its second death ... at the hands of the Islamic State in Syria," he said. "Apparently over 15 people have gone to fight for the Islamic State and I believe that this is simply the end result of a long process of fundamentalisation which has been going on for the past two to three decades." In September prime minister Najib Razak openly praised Islamic State militants and earlier this year became the first non-Arab leader to visit Gaza as a guest of Hamas. I do not believe that Najib [Malaysia's prime minister] is of a fundamentalist bent but what I do believe is that there is an infiltration of Islamofascist elements within the prime minister's department.

Malaysian academic and writer Farouk Peru. Mr Peru said there was open dismay at the prime minister's comments. "The Malaysian left were extremely vocal in saying it. I myself wrote an article in the Malaysian Insider saying that Najib does not exactly know what he's saying," he said. "I really believe this because I do not believe that Najib is of a fundamentalist bent, but what I do believe is that there is an infiltration of Islamo-fascist elements within the prime minister's department and you can see that coming from his department, all sorts of things which are ridiculous. "Yesterday we had someone say that liberalism and pluralism are deviations against Islam ... I mean this kind of stuff never came out before but I think Najib is too complacent and he doesn't realise really what the implications are."Malaysia's complicated constitution Shiite Islam is actively banned in

Malaysia. Mr Peru said it was a dangerous divide for the government to tread.

"The Malaysian Nationalist Party, which has been in power for nearly 60 years now, they have been plagued with this Shiite card, not knowing the consequences of such sectarian violence," he said. "If they just looked at the news in Iraq or Pakistan, they would really understand the consequences of playing with this kind of politics. "Sadly they have not, so what they're trying to do now is to change the constitution by saying that Islam in Malaysia is of specifically Sunni origin, of a particular school of law - so they're trying to whittle it down as much as possible to ensure uniformity." Malaysia's main system of law is secular, however the country's constitution allows for sharia law to sit alongside it. But Mr Peru said the Islamic system of law was gaining a stronger foothold. "There is no choice involved. For Muslims, if you are born into the faith you are liable to follow sharia law at least in the sphere of family law and inheritance law," he said. "In the case of criminal law, for most of Malaysia, probably except for Kelantan now, civil law is in place and that's fine." He said sharia activists were now pushing to extend their sphere of influence. "Last month there was a case where transgendered women were given victory in the courts because they were told that they were allowed to dress according to their gender identity. "The sharia activists were appalled by this and they vowed to extend their sphere of influence, so, in effect, the battle now is in the legal sphere. "Sharia law wants to overtake as much as we can and civil law in the hold of defence." These are all vote-garnering exercises. Sadly in the Malay heartland the more conservative, the more fundamentalist you are, the more likely you are to win that vote ... In the run-up to the elections, it's going to get worse and worse.Malaysian academic and writer Farouk Peru. In the northern state of Kelantan, it is now a crime for men not to attend the mosque on Fridays. If they failed to do so three consecutive times, they could be jailed. Mr Peru said such crimes had been legislated with political motivations. "These are all vote-garnering exercises," he said. "Sadly in the Malay heartland, the more conservative, the more fundamentalist you are, the more likely you are to win that vote. "So UMNO [United Malays National Organisation] and Islamic Party are trying to out-Islamise, so what's going on in Kelantan is something which I think is only the beginning - the top of the iceberg if you will. "In the run-up to the elections, it's going to get worse and worse."

Thailand: The Generals Versus The Hunger Games

December 5, 2014: The military government has managed to suppress street demonstrations by pro-democracy groups but still has to deal with other forms of public protest. These have taken the form of groups of people sitting in public reading “1984” (since banned) or eating sandwiches (rare in a country where rice is the main carbohydrate). Easting sandwiches outdoors was banned but the government has been less successful in banning the three finger salute (as featured as a sign of protest against a military dictatorship in the Hunger Games

books and movies). The latest of the Hunger Games movies (Mockingjay) opened in Thailand during late November and was quickly shut down. But that did not stop small groups of demonstrators from giving the three finger salute (and often get arrested). When these mini-demonstrations take place all over the capital, and the country, they are captured by cell phone cameras and sent to the Internet to show the world that the real resistance in Thailand is as persistent as it was in the fictional world of the Hunger Games. The Thai generals are not amused. The government has some stubborn economic problems as well. GDP growth is stalled and the reason is the political unrest and delays in building or refurbishing infrastructure. In short, Thailand has become a less attractive place for foreign (and even local) investors. That problem will not be eliminated unless the current political strife is settled. That’s one reason the military government has promised elections in late 2015. The question is, will the generals abide by the will of the people. In the last decade they have not and that is what also hurts foreign investment. China is pressuring the government to send them several dozen Uighurs (Turkic people living in northwest China) captured during a raid on a smugglers camp earlier in the year. People smugglers use Thailand as a way station for getting people (for a large fee) out of the region and to more distant and hospitable destinations (preferably Europe or North America.) China says the Uighurs it is after are criminals (Islamic terrorists). The Thai government refused to act promptly and then Turkey offered to take the Uighurs, who face punishment back in China. Over the last month the government attempted to implement a series of new measures to address the Islamic terrorism problem. This included a promise to achieve peace in the south by the end of 2015, but that appears to be unlikely. That’s because the factions that comprise the southern rebels are not united and will only agree to resume unless if the army and special police cease all counter-terrorism operations. The government refuses to even consider this and insists that talks will not resume until all terrorist attacks cease. The rebels refuse to consider that either. Meanwhile an additional 2,000 police have been authorized for the three Moslem provinces in the south with half the new police recruited from those three provinces. The government also distributed 2,700 assault rifles to self-defense volunteers in the south, mostly in rural Buddhist villages vulnerable to attack. Some Moslem villages have received the rifles as well, because the Islamic terrorists are attacking Moslem villages they believe have turned against them. The presence of these armed volunteers discourages attacks. The navy is forming a new paramilitary ranger regiment which will be ready for service in 2016. These rangers will be stationed in the three Moslem provinces. All this seems to imply that the government expects Islamic terrorism to remain a threat in the south even after incidences of it down there become nearly non-existent. The government pointed out that Islamic terrorist violence has diminished over the past few years because more Moslems in those three provinces had turned against the Islamic terrorists. That meant fewer young Moslems were joining the Islamic terrorist gangs and more people were tipping off the security forces about that local Islamic terrorists were up to. The government is also working closely with neighboring Malaysia, where many of the Thai Islamic terrorists spend some of their time and terrorist leaders are often based there. The Malaysian government is willing to act on specific information they receive from Thailand (and make an arrest). The Malaysian government, however, has been unable to persuade the rebels to revive peace talks. The best the Malaysians could do was confirm that the rebel groups were not willing to resume negotiations. When they took over in May the generals proclaimed a willingness to resume peace negotiations with the Moslem rebels. None of the rebel groups responded and the reason appears to be unresolved disputes among the various separatist and Islamic terrorist groups responsible for the continuing violence. The key stumbling block in negotiations so far has been autonomy. The rebels are also upset that the government has not responded to calls for amnesty and some specific government proposals on what forms of autonomy would be

acceptable. Another problem is lack of unity among the rebels. There are religious fanatics, Malay nationalists and criminal gangs and each of these three groups have goals which conflict with the others. The Islamic radicals want a religious dictatorship while the Malay nationalists do not and the gangs want to be free to indulge their lawless lifestyle. All these groups can agree on is the need to get free of ethnic Thai majority rule first. But there is also another force to be reckoned with; the Moslem population in general. They want peace and prosperity. Most want more education for their kids and more economic opportunities. All the different groups responsible for the rebel violence promised positive change and none have delivered. The violence has made things worse for the southern Moslems and they are increasingly hostile to the rebels who claim to be fighting for them. The rebels are instead seen as fighting for minority interests and at the expense of the Moslem majority. The government, both pre and post-coup, has been trying to exploit these divisions. It is understood that the unrest will not be completely eliminated as the presence of smuggling gangs down there has always been a source of violence and persistent illegal activities. But shutting down the last few terrorist cells would do much to restore what passes for peace in the south. This may or may not include a formal agreement with the separatist organizations. Many rebels now believe that the generals are determined to suppress the violence with force rather than any sort of negotiations and compromise. The government and the rebels now appear to agree on this point.

There is also the fact that the unrest in the south has been going on sporadically ever since Thailand gained control of the area centuries ago. For most of that time the Malays down there were independent or allied with (and paid tribute to) Thailand. But in 1909 Britain, which had conquered most of the Malay Peninsula to the south, signed a treaty with Thailand that left the Thais owning what became the current three southern Moslem provinces. At the time, the Malays there considered this preferable to being ruled by the British. During World War II (1939-45) the Japanese took control of Malaysia and a local rebel movement sought to create an independent Malay state, incorporating the three Thai Moslem provinces as well. This did not happen, and the British regained control of Malay in 1945 and granted the area independence (as Malaysia) in 1957. Unrest continued in the three Malay provinces in Thailand, but was usually low key and considered a police matter. What made the current violence so severe was the addition of Islamic radicalism to the usual Malay nationalism. The basic problem is that the Buddhist ethnic Thais often have a hard time getting along with the Moslem ethnic Malays (and vice versa). But until the Islamic radicals came along, urging the use of terrorism, the independence movement was not all that violent and the south was pretty quiet. That changed on January 4th 2004 when Islamic terrorists raided a military warehouse to steal ammo and weapons. This set off a widespread (in the south) campaign of Islamic terrorism. Since then there have been more than 6,100 killed down there along with over 10,000 wounded. There have been over 11,000 violent incidents, most of them involving property damage or non-fatal assaults. In the last ten years Islamic terrorists in the south have killed nearly 200 teachers and burned or blown up over 300 schools. The Islamic terrorists oppose secular education and especially non-Moslem teachers. Low educations levels in the Moslem south means most of the teachers are Buddhists recruited from the wealthier and better educated north. The "terrorists" are a combination of Islamic radicals (most of the two million people in the three southern provinces are Moslem), Malay nationalists (nearly all the Moslems are ethnic Malay, not Thai, which 97 percent of Thailand's population is) and gangsters (smuggling has long been a big business down there). The ethnic Thai majority refused (as they usually do) to back down in the face of Malay Moslem violence. But after years of futile violence the Moslem minority is increasingly hostile to the Islamic terrorists, and more frequently cooperating with the police. This happened gradually as it became

obvious over the last decade that the Thai government was never going to give in. As a result of this, the militants turned on the Moslem civilians, which was a downward spiral that is gradually destroying the remaining popular support they have. The national government has also sent more economic aid to the south and improved the educational system. The army claims that in the last decade the number of Islamic militants in the south has been reduced more than half, to a few thousand with only a few of them regularly carrying out fatal attacks. The overall violence has also declined but all this is mainly because more and more southerners are fed up with years of violence.

December 4, 2014: In the south three people were killed and one wounded in three shooting incidents. Some of these may have not been related to Islamic terrorism but rather to personal conflicts. All the victims were government supporters. The military government has a new and most embarrassing problem. Their anti-corruption campaign has snagged the wife of the crown prince (the heir to the thrown now held by a beloved 86 year old king). The crown prince now wants to divorce his wife (his third, married in 2001) and strip the wife and her family of all the benefits obtained from their connection (by marriage) to the royal family. The uncle of the wife has been arrested as have many police officials who were involved in the many corrupt practices the family of the wife were responsible for. The military coup had the blessing of the royal family, which also backed the increased anti-corruption efforts. The crown prince is the only male heir and has long been criticized for his unroyal behavior and multiple marriages. His current wife (and her family) was suspect from the beginning. Royalists are nervous about the future of the monarchy if the crown prince becomes king, but making the legal changes necessary to allow his more popular sister to become the next monarch are also daunting.

December 3, 2014: In the south a court has sentenced five Moslem men to death for ambushing and killing four soldiers in 2012. November 14, 2014: In the south (Pattani province) trapped six Islamic terrorists in a house and after a gun battle killed two and captured five of them. In the capital the host of a TV interview show was forced off the air by the military dictatorship for asking people what they through about the military government. This sort of thing had been banned in all media. November 11, 2014: The government has refused to get involved with the illegal migration of Rohingya Moslems from Burma and Bangladesh. This has brought international pressure on Thailand because thousands of Rohingya have gone missing after getting on boats to be taken south. People smugglers use boats to move these people south, often through Thai waters. When the coast guard, navy or police detect these boats they are forced to leave Thai waters. These people pay smugglers to take them to Malaysia, Thailand, India or more distant points (like Indonesia). Rohingya activists claim that nearly 20,000 people have left in the last two months, 75 percent of them from Burma. But several thousand appear to have disappeared. Rohingya also accuse security forces in Burma and Thailand of working with the smugglers, usually in the form of taking bribes to allow the smuggler boats to pass without interference. Some Rohingya say the missing Rohingya refugees were murdered by security forces who sank their boats. Others point out that smugglers tend to use poorly maintained boats, which are often overloaded and this leads to boats sinking, especially in bad weather or being stranded when engines fail. Over 100,000 Rohingya are believed to have fled Burma by sea since the anti-Moslem violence began there in 2012. Thailand denies all the charges and refuses to allow foreign investigators into the country.

UN: Opium harvests soaring in Southeast Asia Regional increase in demand for opium and heroin triggers a resurgence of production and threatens development. (Dec 8 2014)

Yangon, Myanmar – Opium poppy cultivation in the heroin-producing ‘Golden Triangle’ - the area adjoining Myanmar, Laos and Thailand - has nearly tripled since 2006, according to a new UN report.The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said in the findings of its annual Southeast Asia Opium Survey on Monday that poppy cultivated in Myanmar and Laos in 2014 reached 63,800 hectares - the equivalent of nearly 90,000 football pitches - up from 21,600 hectares in 2006.The latest figure represents a rise in cultivation for the

eighth consecutive year, boosting an industry estimated to be worth $16bn a year in Southeast Asia. Myanmar, the world's second largest producer of opium behind Afghanistan, together with Laos this year produced 762 tons of opium, most of which would have been refined with chemicals into roughly 76 tons of mixed-grade heroin to be trafficked into global markets and across the region, where drug use is on the rise. "They [Myanmar and Laos] have to do better to stem the two-way flow of drugs in and out of their countries," Jeremy Douglas, the UNODC regional representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, told Al Jazeera. "There is a lot of corruption at the borders and it is a big, big concern of ours," he said, adding that the trade also threatened development within the ASEAN Economic Community. Myanmar’s Ministry of Information and the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control did not respond to requests for comment.The increase comes despite promises by the reformist Myanmar government to eradicate the problem. Of the total area used to cultivate opium, 80 percent, or 51,400 hectares, was in Myanmar’s Shan State, where the world’s longest civil war has raged for more than 50 years.Northern Laos accounted for just 9.72 percent of the total figure, according to the report.China's scourge In an effort to deal with the problem in its mountainous states, Myanmar's government pledged in 1999 to wipe out all opium cultivation over the course of 15 years, resulting in an 86 percent reduction from 1998 to 2006. But, since then, a regional increase in demand for opium and heroin has triggered a resurgence of production, largely by transnational crime networks operating in parts of the country where the government is battling rebels. With production on the rise, the Myanmar government stepped up efforts in the 2013-14 opium poppy season, eradicating 15,188 hectares of the crop, a 19 percent increase from the year before, according to government data. Myanmar has little capacity to regulate its borders, resulting in human trafficking and a massive illegal trade in everything from drugs and precious stones, with most of the corruption happening along the borders with China."The problem is bigger than ever before because there are no laws in these areas," said U Nyan Win, spokesman for Myanmar’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, adding that stymieing the drug trade will hinge on the success of a nationwide ceasefire. "If there is no peace in Burma, then the problem will only get worse."With easy access to drugs, the number of heroin users in China – the world’s single largest market -- grew by half a million from 2007 to 2013 to reach 1.3 million, according the UNODC report. As of 2014, China accounts for nearly 58 percent of the 3.33 million estimated opiate users throughout Asia. In Myanmar, opiate use is now one of the highest in Southeast Asia, while preliminary assessments in the report show the use of heroin and methamphetamine in some villages in Shan and Kayah States has tripled since 2012.

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