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Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1 Pakistan-14

It's a classic military mistake to leave a partially defeated enemy on the battlefield in one form or another -- let them survive.

Saudi Arabia's request for tangible Pakistani help for Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen has led to an unprecedented rejection by Islamabad Why did Sharif send the issue to parliament?

• They have simply "bitten off more than they can chew." • A revealing editorial in the Pakistani press suggests the prime minister had already

concluded that the Saudis have blundered into a war they cannot win and for which they are unprepared. Their goals, restoring the Hadi government to power and preventing the creation of a pro-Iranian regime on the Arabian Peninsula, are not matched by the resources available

• After five days of debate, not one speaker apparently supported sending ground troops.

• The army has argued that it is stretched too thin with a counterterrorism campaign against the Pakistani Taliban and tensions with India to send troops to Yemen

• Sharif met with the king and his advisers on the eve of the war and judged they "had made a strategic error led by an untested leadership that panicked" at Iran's role in Yemen.

• The episode also has implications for the long-standing issue of whether Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a secret unwritten agreement for Islamabad to provide a nuclear weapon or several weapons to Riyadh if the kingdom felt threatened by an Iranian bomb.

Oman is the only GCC state to stay out of the air war. Just west of Oman's Dhofar province both Houthi and al-Qaeda fighters have expanded their control since Operation Decisive Storm began.

• The sultan is also wary of a quagmire that only benefits al-Qaeda.Most analysts see IS as a phenomenon of the Levant, having no roots in South Asia. Recent claims by some sub-groups within the Taliban to having joined IS are seen by many as reflective of their loss of clout and funding due to a Pakistani military operation that ended their sanctuaries in the north-west of the country. IS has taken nearly six months since its inception in this region to launch its first attack. And it chose a rather easy target.

• Many say the IS is too preoccupied with Iraq and Syria to commit any significant funds and other resources to what they call Khorasan - a historical region comprising Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan and India, of which Saeed Khan has been appointed head. But some official circles in Pakistan admit that IS could emerge as a greater threat to the country than it presently is.

Pope Francis said: It's with pain, much pain that I was told of the terrorist attacks against two Christian churches in Lahore in Pakistan, which have caused numerous deaths and injuries. These are Christian churches and Christians are persecuted, our Christian brothers are spilling their blood simply because they are Christians. I implore God … that this persecution against Christians — that the world seeks to hide — comes to an end and that there is peace.The release of Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi swiftly drew furious condemnation from India

The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan released a lengthy video of fighters from its “Mujahideen Special Group” who are training at a camp in northwestern Pakistan. The

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Pakistani Taliban, which has advertised the Mujahideen Special Group as its version of special forces, shows the fighters going throw various stages of instruction. The video, titled “MSG Training,” was released on April 17 by Umar Media

April 10, Pakistan parliament backs neutrality in Yemen conflict. Vote indicates country will not join Saudi-led military coalition but will "stand shoulder to shoulder" with kingdom. The resolution expresses the "desire that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict", while reaffirming Pakistan’s "unequivocal support of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia". Members of parliament agreed that Pakistan would "stand shoulder to shoulder" with Saudi Arabia in case of a violation of that country’s territorial integrity, or a threat to Muslim holy sites in Mecca and Medina.

April 13, Bruce Riedel. Why Pakistan said no to King Salman Author: Bruce Riedel Posted April 13, 2015 Saudi Arabia's request for tangible Pakistani help for Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen has led to an unprecedented rejection by Islamabad. In response to a direct face-to-face request from King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud for ground troops and aircraft for the war against Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen last month, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took the issue to the Pakistani parliament, which on April 10 unanimously decided to stay out of the war. On April 13, Sharif reaffirmed the parliament's decision while also pledging Pakistan's commitment to Saudi Arabia. After five days of debate, not one speaker apparently supported sending ground troops. While many praised Saudi Arabia as a friend of Pakistan, almost all called for a political solution and diplomacy to end the crisis. Some even blamed Riyadh for starting the war. Every political party opposed sending troops. The consensus was to stay neutral while reaffirming friendship with the kingdom. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Pakistan during the debate. He met with both Prime Minister Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif. The army has argued that it is stretched too thin with a counterterrorism campaign against the Pakistani Taliban and tensions with India to send troops to Yemen. Nawaz Sharif said April 13 that he urged Zarif to rein in the Houthis and support a political solution. The Pakistani response is a potentially big setback for the bilateral relationship. Given that Sharif owes his life to the Saudis, who helped save him from execution after the 1999 Gen. Pervez Musharraf coup and provided him exile (with a little help from Washington), it's a remarkable development. No Pakistani politician knows the Saudis better than Sharif or has more access to their inner circle.

Why did Sharif send the issue to parliament? A revealing editorial in the Pakistani press suggests the prime minister had already concluded that the Saudis have blundered into a war they cannot win and for which they are unprepared. Their goals, restoring the Hadi government to power and preventing the creation of a pro-Iranian regime on the Arabian Peninsula, are not matched by the resources available. Sharif met with the king and his advisers on the eve of the war and judged they "had made a strategic error led by an untested leadership that panicked" at Iran's role in Yemen. In this account of Sharif's decision, the Pakistani leader reportedly believes that if the Saudis enter into a ground war in Yemen — with or without Pakistani forces — it will become a quagmire. They have simply "bitten off more than they can chew." The Egyptian experience in Yemen, in which Egypt had up to 20,000 casualties in the 1960s fighting the same Zaydi tribes that back the Houthis, figures prominently in Pakistani thinking, especially in the army. But Sharif also does not want to endanger Pakistan's close ties to the kingdom. He will note that strong military and diplomatic relations will continue between Riyadh and Islamabad. Pakistani experts and advisers are already in the kingdom in small numbers. One died in a training accident in Saudi Arabia last

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week. Sharif will also argue that he had no choice but to consult the parliament. Once a consensus emerged, he also could not go against it.

Already, close Saudi ally the United Arab Emirates has threatened that the no vote will have negative consequences for Pakistan's relationship with the Gulf states. The kingdom and the UAE provide sizable amounts of aid and investment to Pakistan. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis live and work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.The episode also has implications for the long-standing issue of whether Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a secret unwritten agreement for Islamabad to provide a nuclear weapon or several weapons to Riyadh if the kingdom felt threatened by an Iranian bomb. The Yemen crisis suggests any such vague nuclear "promise" may be worthless. If Islamabad won't deliver conventional ground and air support when the kingdom is at war with an Iranian proxy (the Saudi view of the Houthis), it can't be relied on to provide a bomb.

The episode also raises concerns about Iran's clout in the region. Much of the debate in parliament had been about avoiding further sectarian violence in Pakistan (which is 20% Shiite), which intervention in the war in Yemen would stoke (perhaps with Iranian help). Zarif had a big stick behind his back. Without ever mentioning the threat of Iranian meddling in Pakistan's already fragile domestic stability, Zarif could remind his hosts they don't want more trouble at home. Zarif visited Pakistan after a stop in Oman, the other big no-show in the Yemen war. Oman is the only GCC state to stay out of the air war. Like Sharif, Sultan Qaboos is wary of the Yemen conflict expanding beyond Yemen's borders. Just west of Oman's Dhofar province both Houthi and al-Qaeda fighters have expanded their control since Operation Decisive Storm began. The Houthis seized Shabwa province last week and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken much of Hadrawmawt province. The sultan is also wary of a quagmire that only benefits al-Qaeda. There is now talk in Islamabad of Pakistan playing a mediator role to find a way to end the fighting. As a major Islamic power, Pakistan could potentially help engineer a face-saving solution to achieve a cease-fire and end the war. But that requires a willingness to compromise that as yet does not look apparent either in Riyadh or Sanaa.

Islamic State enters fray in PakistanBy M Ilyas Khan BBC News, Islamabad BBC 8 April From the section Asia

Islamic State, whose Arabic acronym Daesh is seen here in Quetta, has been making inroads in Pakistan Islamic State drew first blood against Pakistan at the weekend when its regional spokesman claimed their fighters had shot dead three Pakistani soldiers. But how big an advantage does this represent for the group?Few are willing to speculate. Most analysts

see IS as a phenomenon of the Levant, having no roots in South Asia. Recent claims by some sub-groups within the Taliban to having joined IS are seen by many as reflective of their loss of clout and funding due to a Pakistani military operation that ended their sanctuaries in the north-west of the country. IS has taken nearly six months since its inception in this region to launch its first attack. And it chose a rather easy target. In mid-October, six former militants associated with the Pakistani Taliban, the TTP, announced they were quitting the group and had vowed their allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The only figure

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known to the outside world among these six was Shahidullah Shahid, a long time spokesman of the TTP. And the only tangible loss to the TTP - as confided by a top TTP leader to a credible source - was that of its commander for the Orakzai region, Saeed Khan.

Although largely unknown until he was named by Shahidullah Shahid, Mr Khan's significance is understandable. Orakzai straddles a mountain range with passes providing access into several adjoining regions such as the Kohat valley to the south, Afghanistan's Nangarhar province to the north-west, and the strategically important Peshawar valley to the north-east.

The region spawned the first version of the Pakistani Taliban way back in the late 1990s, known mainly for their raids on music stores across large parts of the south of what is now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province). Post-9/11, Orakzai became of pivotal significance for anti-Pakistan groups seeking to exert pressure on Peshawar, and on the road linking it with the Afghan capital Kabul, a major supply route for Western troops stationed there. Saeed Khan held important positions in Orakzai under the founder chief of the TTP, Baitullah Mehsud, first as head of the Taliban's Orakzai justice system and later as its operational head. Under his watch, the Taliban inflicted maximum damage on Western military supplies passing through Peshawar, and brought the city itself close to administrative collapse during 2009-10. But the rugged and inhospitable terrain of Orakzai does not support the kind of mainstream militancy that was made possible by the availability of easier, friendlier and strategically more advantageous regions like Wana and Miranshah in Waziristan.

However, in the wake of the Pakistani military offensive in Miranshah that started last June, areas like Orakzai can serve as fairly long-term hideouts for smaller numbers of militants. And this is what many believe was in evidence last Saturday. A group of snipers attacked an army convoy heading from the garrison in Kohat to the upper Orakzai area of Ghaljo, killing three soldiers. The most spectacular aspect of the attack was IS's claim of responsibility. Analysts say the fact that the regional head of the IS took six months to launch a rather unimpressive attack on his own remote home ground indicates problems of funding and logistics. Many say the IS is too preoccupied with Iraq and Syria to commit any significant funds and other resources to what they call Khorasan - a historical region comprising Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan and India, of which Saeed Khan has been appointed head. But some official circles in Pakistan admit that IS could emerge as a greater threat to the country than it presently is. They point to continued defections among the ranks of the Pakistani Taliban, the latest coming as recently as Monday when the new TTP spokesman, Mohammad Khorasani, told reporters their head and deputy head for Bajaur tribal region had stepped down. The duo - Maulana Abu Bakar and his deputy, Qari Zahid - have not publicly spoken, but many speculate that they may be planning to join IS. The IS threat in South Asia may be growing, but few believe it can get any worse than its various predecessors - unless state structures in Afghanistan, Pakistan or India show signs of a collapse, like they did in Iraq and Syria.

Jihadis Seek to Cleanse Pakistan of Christians by Raymond Ibrahim PJ Media March 21, 2015 http://www.meforum.org/5131/jihadis-pakistan-christians Originally published under the title,

"Jihadis Cleansing Pakistan of Christians."

On Sunday, March 15, as Christian churches around the world were celebrating morning mass, two churches in Pakistan were attacked by Islamic suicide bombers. At least 17 people were killed and over 70 were wounded. The two churches (located in Youhanabad, Lahore's Christian quarter) were St. John's Catholic Church and Christ Church (Protestant). The Taliban claimed responsibility. It is believed that the group had hoped for much greater death tolls, as there were almost 2,000 people in both churches at the time of the explosions.

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According to eyewitnesses, two suicide bombers approached the gates of the two churches and tried to enter them. When they were stopped — including by a 15-year-old Christian who blocked them with his body — they self-detonated. Witnesses saw "body parts flying through the air." Thus did the jihadis "kill and be killed," in the words of Koran 9:111, the verse most often cited to justify suicide attacks. According to an official statement of the Justice and Peace Commission of the Episcopal Conference of Pakistan, despite all the threats received by the churches, authorities only provided "minimal" security: Agents present at the time of the attack were busy watching the cricket match on TV, instead of carrying out their duty to protect churches. As a result of this neglect, many Christians have lost their lives.

The statement further urged: the government to adopt strong measures to protect churches and other religious minorities in Pakistan [since] the Christian community of Pakistan was targeted by extremists in the past.

Less than a year-and-a-half earlier, on September 22, 2013, in Peshawar, suicide bombers entered the All Saints Church right after Sunday mass and blew themselves up in the midst of approximately 550 congregants, killing nearly 90 worshippers. Many were Sunday school children, women, and choir members. At least 120 were injured.One parishioner recalled how "human remains were strewn all over the church." (For an idea of the aftermath of suicide attacks on churches, see these graphic pictures.)In 2001, Islamic gunmen stormed St. Dominic's Protestant Church, opening fire on the congregants and killing at least 16 worshippers, mostly women and children.

Less dramatic attacks on churches occur with great frequency. Days before last Sunday's twin attacks, three armed men entered Our Lady Queen of Angels Catholic Church in Kasur district, Punjab, and took church personnel, the assistant parish priest, and congregation hostage. Before leaving the premises, the terrorists stole mobile telephones, cameras, and a computer.

Earlier, Father Leopold, the ailing parish priest, was robbed by thieves: [They] pretended to be ordinary members of the faithful wanting to enroll some children at the parish school. Then they suddenly pulled out guns.

Christmas season is an especially dangerous time for Christians meeting in churches. On last December 25: Heavy contingents of police were deployed in and around the churches … citizens were allowed only after [a] thorough body search … while the entry points leading to the churches had been closed by placing cemented blocks and barbed wire.During another Christmas, the following attack came in response to fatwas condemning Christmas celebrations: When Christian worshipers were coming out of different churches after performing Christmas prayers, more than one hundred Muslim extremists equipped with automatic rifles, pistols and sticks attacked the Christian women, children and men.

There have also been general attacks on Christians, especially in the context of accusing them of "blaspheming" against Islam. Last November, a mob — not the "Taliban," and not "terrorists" — consisting of at least 1,200 Muslims tortured and burned to death a young Christian couple (the wife was pregnant) in an industrial kiln in Pakistan. Someone had accused the Christian couple of desecrating the Koran.

Even when not in church and not accused of blasphemy, Christian minorities are always in danger. Last December, Elisabeth Bibi, a 28-year-old pregnant Christian mother of four, was "beaten, scorned and humiliated, deprived of her dignity [and] forced to walk naked through the town" by two Muslim brothers — the pregnant woman's employers — following an argument. In the ordeal, she lost her baby. Rights activists say the attack "was motivated because of Bibi's [Christian] religious beliefs."

Speaking last Sunday from Rome, Pope Francis said: It's with pain, much pain that I was told of the terrorist attacks against two Christian churches in Lahore in Pakistan, which have caused numerous deaths and injuries. These are Christian churches and Christians are

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persecuted, our Christian brothers are spilling their blood simply because they are Christians. I implore God … that this persecution against Christians — that the world seeks to hide — comes to an end and that there is peace. Pope Francis is often criticized for his apologetic approach towards Islam. Even here, he does not note who is persecuting these Christians, leading to confusing assertions ("our Christian brothers are spilling their blood" sounds like Christians are killing Christians). But the pope is forthright as to why Christians are being killed: "simply because they are Christians."

Others, such as the U.S. government, will not even concede that much. When the world heard and saw how 21 Coptic Christians had their heads sawed off by Islamic jihadis in Libya, the White House issued a statement condemning the beheadings — but referred to the beheaded only as "Egyptian citizens." Not Christians, or even Copts, even though that is the sole reason they were slaughtered according to statements issued by their executioners.Such obfuscation ensures the Muslim persecution of Christians "that the world seeks to hide" will continue indefinitely. Raymond Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and a Judith Friedman Rosen Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War on Christians (2013) and The Al Qaeda Reader (2007).

Pakistan frees alleged Mumbai attack mastermind; The release of Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi swiftly drew furious condemnation from India. 10 Apr 2015 A Pakistani court has freed on bail the alleged mastermind of a 2008 assault on India's financial capital Mumbai that killed 166 people and seriously strained ties between the neighbouring countries. Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi was released late on Thursday, according to an official at Adiyala Prison in Rawalpindi, next to Islamabad. The move swiftly drew furious condemnation from India, which slammed the release as an "insult" to the victims of the three-day onslaught on its financial capital, blamed on the banned Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Lakhvi is one of seven men facing trial over the attacks, in which ten gunmen infiltrated the city by boat and spent three days spraying bullets and throwing grenades around city landmarks. India blamed the Pakistan-based armed group Lashkar-e-Taiba for the Mumbai attack. Indian investigators said Lakhvi was the Lashkar-e-Taiba military chief. He was arrested in Pakistan in 2009 in connection with the attack.

Pakistani Taliban promotes ‘Muhajideen Special Group,’ training camp

BY BILL ROGGIO | April 18, 2015 | billroggio@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

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Members of the Mujahideen Special Group receive instructions on how to manufacture explosives.The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan released a lengthy video of fighters from its “Mujahideen Special Group” who are training at a camp in northwestern Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban, which has advertised the Mujahideen Special Group as its version of special forces, shows the fighters going throw various stages of instruction.The video, titled “MSG Training,” was released on April 17 by Umar Media, the official propaganda arm of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. The footage was posted on Umar Media’s website as well as emailed to The Long War Journal by the group’s spokesman, Muhammad Khurasani.

The Taliban are shown training members of the Mujahideen Special Group at its “Mehdi Alaih Rizwan Training Center.” The location of the camp was not disclosed but it is situated in a mountainous area in northwestern Pakistan. The camp appears to be well-used.

The jihadist are shown training in the open, with no fear of reprisal by Pakistani forces. At one point, a group of Taliban commanders meets the fighters and sits in the open to supervise their training.

The Mujahideen Special Group fighters are shown going through a variety of instruction, including weapons training; manufacturing explosives and assembling and testing IEDs; assault drills; conducting assassinations using a motorcycles, land navigation, and first aid. The fighters also navigate an obstacle course. The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan first publicized the Mehdi Alaih Rizwan Training Center and the Mujahideen Special Group in a statement and a short video released on Nov. 23, 2014. In a posting on Umar Media’s website, the Taliban said that the Mujahideen Special Group “has reached” the tribal agency of Khyber “for fighting.” The Pakistani Taliban have also referred to the Mujahideen Special Group as its “Special Task Force.”

Both the Mujahideen Special Group and the Special Task Force are frequently mentioned by Muhammad Khurasani in emails claiming attacks and assassinations. Attacks that have been attributed to the “MSG” and “STF” include:

An April 3 attack that killed Bahawal Khan, a deputy superintendent of police, in Dera Ismail Khan.

A March 27 attack that killed Pakistan Army Colonel Tahir in Peshawar.A March 27 attack on a police vehicle that killed five policemen in the Loralai district in Baluchistan.A March 26 attack that targeted the “Karachi Special Security Unit” and killed two policemen in Karachi.A March 18 attack on Frontier Levies personnel in the Chamarkand District in Bajaur.A March 18 attack that killed Haji Sardar Mohmand, a PML-N politician, in Peshawar.

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Images of the Mujahideen Special Group training at the Taliban’s “Mehdi Alaih Rizwan Training Center.”

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