Equity Weekly 130707
Transcript of Equity Weekly 130707
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Weekly7 July 2013
Irfan Ellam
Head of MENA Equity Research
+971 4 230 7807
Aditya Pugalia
Analyst
+971 4 230 7802
Equity WeeklyGlobal EquitiesThe MSCI World index rose +1.1% 5d, as US payrolls data came in higher thanexpected, and in Europe, both the European Central Bank and Bank of Englandsignaled that interest rates will continue to remain low in the Eurozone for an extended
period of time. Risk measures declined in the US and Asia, with the VIX SPX -11.7% 5dto 15 and the VHSI +12.9% 5d to 23, but increased in Europe with the VSTOXX +3.6%5d to 23. The MSCI G7 index, +1.3% 5d, led gains for the MSCI market indices,followed by the MSCI Frontiers Markets index, +1.1% 5d whilst the MSCI EmergingMarket index declined -2.4% 5d.
Investors are expected to focus on Q2 2013 earnings releases over the coming weeks,and more importantly management guidance, to help gauge the impact of the expectedreduction in US quantitative easing on sales and earnings for H2 2013. For emergingmarkets higher yields in the US could see an outflow of funds, resulting in weakeremerging markets currencies, which in turn could be positive for exporters. Fordomestically focused emerging market companies there is a potential risk of inflation tocontend with.
MENA MarketsThe S&P Pan Arab Composite index rose +1.9% 5d. Egypt had the best performingregional market last week, with the EGX 30 index gaining +14.9% 5d, driven by localbuying, as the military removed former President Mursi from power and appointed AdlyMansour (the former head of the constitutional Court) as Interim President. WhilstEgyptian markets have cheered the move, the country economic fundamentals have notchanged and the economy remains weak, with foreign exchange reserves underpressure. The appointment of an interim president could see the resumption of talkswith the IMF for the USD 4.8bn loan, but any IMF loan would come with conditionsattached, relating to the removal/reduction of subsidies for food and fuel. These factors,together with civil unrest, gives ample reason for equity investors to remain cautious.The EGX index is currently trading on 7.6x BEst PE 2014E, with a 9.7% BEst ROE2014E, a -17 % discount in PE terms and -24% lower ROE relative to the MSCIEmerging markets index. Morocco had the worst performing regional market with theMadex Free Float index -1.3% 5d.
Based on Bloomberg data and our MENA coverage universe, the Industrials sector(+7.8% 5d) was the best performing sector, led by Egyptian industrials with Elswedy+17.9% 5d, El Ezz +10.0% 5d and Oriental Weavers +9.3% 5d. The Petrochemicalssector had the smallest gains +1.9% 5d, as APPC (-1.2% 5d) and SAFC) (-0.5% 5d)declined.
Our MENA equity coverage universe shows the Financial Services sector (23.5x BEstPE 2014, BEst ROE 2014 of 3.7%) as having the most upside of +25.8%, based onBEst consensus target prices. The Food and Retail sector (14.1x BEst PE 2014 andBEst ROE 2014 of 28.0%) continues to have the least upside of -1.8%.
Developed MarketsThe S&P 500 index gained +1.2% 5d, as US payrolls increased by 195,000, above
consensus estimates of 165,000 and hourly earnings increased. Financial, industrialand health care companies led the gains in 9 out of 10 of the S&P 500 industry groups.The S&P homebuilders index fell-3.4% on concerns over the impact of higher treasuryyields on mortgage costs and hence housing demand. Dell lost -2.1% as Michael Delland Silver Lake said that they would not increase their offer, as they bid to take thecompany private.
The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose +1.2% 5d, as both the European Central Bank and Bankof England stated that Eurozone interest rates will continue to remain low for anextended period of time, meaning, according to the ECB, more than 6 to 12 months.Nokia gained +9.1% after it agreed to buy Siemens 50% share in their Nokia SiemensNetworks joint venture for Euro 1.7bn, lower than expected. However the acquisitionresulted in S&P cutting Nokias credit rating to B+, citing the impact the acquisition willhave on the companys net cash position. National benchmark indices rose in 15 of the
18 western European markets.
Emerging and Frontier MarketsFrontier markets gains were led by the MSCI FM Africa index +2.3% 5d, whilst theMSCI FM excluding the GCC index rose +1.2% 5d. Emerging markets declinescontinued to be led by the MSCI EM Latin America index falling -4.3% 5d, followed theMSCI EM Asia -1.7% 5d, whilst the MSCI EM Eastern Europe index was effectively flat-0.5% 5d.
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Research from Emirates NBD
Major Equity Markets
MENA Sector PE/ROE 2013E
MENA Equity Indices PE/ROE 2013E
Developed Market Indices PE/ROE 2013E
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst Bloomberg
Estimates
MENA Sector PB/ROA 2012
MENA Equity Indices PB/ROA 2012
Developed Market Indices PB/ROA 2012
y = 2.2197x - 10.996R = 0.6041
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
4.0 12.0 20.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Real Estate
Banks
Industrials
Food & Retail
Telecom
Petchem & Fert
Transport & Logistics
Energy & Utilities
Construction
y = 2.0655x - 5.8027R = 0.3341
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
DSMDFMGI
ADSMI
MADEX
MSM
Tadawul
ISE 100
EGX 30
y = 0.8101x + 3.6977R = 0.1884
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Nasdaq
AS51 Index
FTSE100
Dow
Jones
SMI
NikkeiS&P500
Cac Dax
Stoxx600
y = 4.7166x - 2.7764R = 0.84
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
ROA
2012
PB 2012
Real Estate
Banks
Industrials
Food & Retail
Telecom
FinancialServices
Petchem &Fert
Transport &Logistics
Energy &Utilities
Construction
y = 1.1815x + 0.9742R = 0.4142
0.00
0.501.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
ROA2012
PB 2012
DFMGI
ADSMI
Tadawul
XU100
MSM
DSM
EGX 30
y = 3.637x - 3.926R = 0.4946
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
ROA2012
PB 2012
FTSE 100
S&P 500
Dow JonesSMI
Nasdaq
Nikkei
Dax
Stoxx 600
CacAS51 Index
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Major Equity Markets
Emerging Market Indices PE/ROE 2013E
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst BloombergEstimates
Emerging Market Indices PB/ROA 2012
y = 0.3393x + 12.868R = 0.056
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Mala sia
Karachi
Nifty
Jakarta Sensex
Taiwan
Mexico
Vietnam
Bovespa
HSIShanghai
Jo'burg
Micex
y = 2.1125x + 0.5451R = 0.2463
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
ROA
2012
PB 2012
Malaysia
Karachi
Nifty
Jakarta
Sensex
Taiwan
Mexico
Vietnam
BovespaHSI
Shanghai
Jo'burg
Micex
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MENA Markets
MENA Equity Indices (5d% chg) Benchmark Equity Indices
Index
BEst
P/E
BEst
P/B
Div
Yield
5d
chg
1m
chgYtd
MSCI World 14.07 1.82 2.72 1.1% -1.4% 8.3%
MSCI G7 14.10 1.86 2.51 1.3% -1.1% 10.0%
MSCI Emerging
Markets 10.14 1.32 3.06 -2.4% -6.4%
-
13.0%
MSCI Frontier
Markets 10.34 1.49 4.18 1.1% -5.2% 8.8%
S&P Pan Arab 12.04 1.55 3.74 2.1% -0.8% 8.5%
MENA Equity Indices
Index Last Price 5d chg
T.Value 5d avg
(USD mn) BEst P/E BEst P/B Div Yield
% above 200d
MA
DFM 2,264 41.7 60.4 12.8 1.0 3.7 51.6
ADX 3,563 22.2 72.4 10.0 1.4 4.9 32.8
Tadawul 7,669 164.2 1,291.4 12.5 1.8 3.6 62.5
ISE 100 73,112 -3182.7 1,246.4 9.7 1.4 2.5 36.0
EGX 30 5,335 693.5 41.2 9.8 0.8 5.8 33.3
KWSE 7,963 49.7 124.9 - - 3.7 49.5
Bahrain 1,191 2.5 1.3 - - 4.1 17.1
MSM 6,441 106.9 11.3 10.1 1.5 4.3 93.3
Qatar Exchange 9,372 73.4 46.7 11.0 1.6 4.9 90.0
MADEX 7,044 -96.3 2.6 13.0 2.3 4.5 48.2
TUSISE 4,617 8.3 1.4 - - 1.9 16.1
DUAE INDEX 2,575 30.1 112.7 - - 3.1 95.0
DKUW INDEX 3,820 28.6 28.3 - - 3.7 80.0
DQAT INDEX 5,876 82.9 39.0 - - 4.5 90.0
DKUS INDEX 2,926 29.6 41.7 - - 4.3 80.0
DQAS INDEX 7,280 -21.9 - - - - -
Relative to Benchmark Indices
Index PE PB Dvd Yld Index PE PB Dvd Yld
Relative to S&P Pan Arab
DFM 6.7% -35.5% -1.3% Relative to MSCI Emerging Market Index
ADX -16.8% -10.1% 30.6% EGX 30 -3.8% -41.4% 91.2%
Tadawul 3.8% 17.4% -3.0% MADEX 28.2% 77.1% 46.2%
KWSE - - -1.3% ISE 100 -3.8% 6.6% -18.9%
Bahrain - - 9.5%
0.2%
-1.4%
-4.2%
14.9%
1.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
2.2%
0.6%
1.9%
-12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18%
TUSISE
MADEX
ISE 100
EGX 30
MSM
Bahrain Bourse
KWSE
DSM
Tadawul
ADX
DFM
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Index PE PB Dvd Yld Index PE PB Dvd Yld
MSM -16.2% -5.1% 14.1%
Qatar -8.5% 4.7% 31.6%
TUSISE -49.4% - -48.7%
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimates
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Developed Markets
Developed Market Equity Indices (5d% chg) Emerging Market Equity Indices (5d% chg)
Equity Indices
Index Last Price 5d chg
T.Value 5d avg
(USD mn) BEst P/E BEst P/B Div Yield
% above 200d
MA
Dow Jones 15,136 111.4 4,023.3 13.6 2.8 2.5 90.0
S&P 500 1,632 18.7 20,006.7 14.8 2.3 2.2 83.8
Nasdaq 3,479 77.5 10,648.0 17.9 2.8 1.4 67.9
FTSE 100 6,376 160.1 4,933.8 11.8 1.7 4.0 79.2
Dax 7,806 -153.2 4,240.0 11.5 1.4 3.5 56.7
Cac 40 3,754 14.9 3,479.1 11.9 1.2 4.0 67.5
Swiss 7,782 98.9 1,887.5 14.6 2.3 3.3 85.0
Nikkei 14,310 632.7 14,266.6 18.1 1.6 1.6 96.4
Australia 4,842 39.2 3,170.7 13.7 1.8 4.9 57.2
Stoxx 600 288 3.3 28,325.6 12.8 1.5 3.8 69.0
Emerging Markets & Frontier Markets
Hong Kong 20,855 414.6 2,823.8 9.9 1.2 3.6 24.0
Shanghai 2,007 28.0 12,103.4 8.8 1.2 3.0 29.9
Korea 1,833 -30.0 3,045.8 10.0 1.1 1.3 48.3
Sensex 19,496 100.0 78.1 13.6 2.1 1.6 50.0
Nifty 5,868 25.7 851.2 13.7 2.1 1.6 38.0
Karachi 22,178 1172.7 82.6 8.0 1.7 5.5 90.0
Taiwan 8,002 -60.4 2,511.6 14.7 1.6 3.3 60.5
Bovespa 45,210 -2246.6 2,377.2 12.2 0.8 4.7 16.9
Micex 1,343 12.3 634.4 5.1 0.6 4.0 40.0
Jo'burg 1,343 -408.3 1,348.2 12.7 1.7 3.0 58.7
Vietnam 486 4.5 29.0 11.9 2.0 3.6 53.6
Jakarta 4,603 -216.1 364.7 14.9 2.9 2.1 29.1
Malaysia 1,772 -1.3 301.1 16.6 2.2 3.4 80.0
Mexico 40,623 -0.2 450.3 16.4 2.6 1.4 40.0
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
0.8%
4.6%
1.2%
1.3%
0.4%
-1.9%
2.6%
2.3%
1.2%
0.7%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
S&P / ASX 200
Nikkei
Stoxx 600
SMI
CAC 40
DAX
FTSE 100
Nasdaq
S&P 500
DJIA
2.0%
1.4%-1.6%
0.5%
0.4%
5.6%
-0.8%
-4.7%
0.9%
-1.0%
0.9%
-4.5%
-0.1%
0.0%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Hang Seng
SHCOMPKOSPI
Sensex
Nifty
KSE 100
TWSE
Bovespa
Micex
FTSE / JSE Africa
Ho Chi Minh
JSE
KLCI
MEXBOL
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Relative to Benchmark Indices
Index PE PB Dvd Yld Index PE PB Dvd Yld
Relative to MSCI G7 Index Relative to MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Dow Jones -3.6% 48.7% 0.1% Hong Kong -2.3% -6.4% 17.9%
S&P 500 5.0% 22.8% -14.3% Shanghai -13.2% -8.9% -0.6%
Nasdaq 27.1% 50.3% -45.8% Korea -1.0% -20.2% -59.1%
FTSE 100 -16.2% -10.3% 57.9% Sensex 34.2% 62.2% -46.9%
Dax -18.5% -26.7% 38.4% Nifty 34.7% 59.8% -48.6%
Cac 40 -15.9% -36.4% 60.7% Karachi -20.9% 26.4% 80.0%
Swiss 3.4% 25.2% 32.8% Taiwan 44.9% 22.0% 6.7%
Nikkei 28.4% -16.3% -35.8% Bovespa 20.2% -41.1% 52.3%
Australia -2.6% -4.7% 93.8% Micex -49.7% -53.4% 30.5%
Stoxx 600 -9.5% -21.5% 51.1% Jo'burg 25.1% 29.1% -0.5%
Vietnam 17.3% 53.3% 18.1%
Jakarta 47.0% 116.2% -30.1%
Malaysia 63.3% 67.7% 9.9%
Mexico 62.3% 93.3% -53.5%
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst Bloomberg Estimate
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Telecoms Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Orascom Telecom 4.56 3403.4 - 7.8 -13.4 15.8 2.1 -2.8 0.0 1.4 65 2.6
Telecom Egypt 12.80 3108.9 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 0.9 8.0 9.2 10.4 61 1.2
NMTC 2060.00 3630.5 15.5 9.7 9.3 12.3 1.4 5.2 5.3 4.3 32 0.1
Zain 680.00 10260.2 12.0 11.0 13.7 14.3 1.9 8.1 6.4 7.6 48 4.6
Qtel 121.10 10652.7 10.3 10.4 12.0 12.4 1.2 3.0 4.8 4.9 49 2.4
Etihad Etisalat 80.75 16578.7 8.8 9.6 30.6 29.0 2.5 15.8 5.5 5.8 55 18.0
STC 40.10 21384.1 11.9 8.6 14.8 16.7 1.7 6.3 4.6 5.6 46 9.5
Zain KSA 9.90 2851.1 - - -27.5 -16.4 1.0 -6.4 0.0 0.0 55 57.6
Etisalat 11.20 24323.6 10.6 11.5 16.8 18.7 1.8 8.8 7.7 6.2 41 5.8
Du 5.81 7218.8 8.1 14.1 28.8 27.0 2.1 15.2 8.6 5.2 56 2.6
Average 10.8 10.2 9.5 13.9 1.7 6.1 5.2 5.2
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
Etihad Etisalat signed two 90-day MoU with Nokia Siemens Network and Ericsson to arrange long-term financing for acquiring
network equipment. In another announcement, the companys unit Bayanat Al Oula for Network Services will seek CMAs approval to
acquire controlling interest in Etihad Atheeb. (Bloomberg)
Etihad Etisalat has signed a contract with Emaar Economic City to provide a communication network in King Abdullah Economic City.The contract is for 8 year and entails an investment of SAR 600mn. (Bloomberg)
y = 1.4417x + 3.0494R = 0.2802
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Zain
Etisalat
OT
Telecom Egypt
Etihad Etisalat
STC
Qtel
du
NMTC
y = 3.3605x + 0.5032R = 0.2211
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
ROA
2013
PB 2013
NMTC
VodafoneQatar
STC
Etisalat
Telecom Egypt
Etihad Etisalat
Zain KSA
Du
Qtel
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Petrochemicals & Fertilisers Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
IQ 158.30 26300.7 10.1 10.1 29.8 27.2 2.8 21.9 5.5 5.6 35 11.6
Sahara Petchem 14.70 1719.9 29.1 15.1 3.9 7.3 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.9 51 9.1
SABIC 93.50 74791.0 10.9 10.3 17.3 17.4 1.8 7.4 5.6 5.6 56 103.8
SIPCHEM 24.00 2346.4 11.6 14.8 10.7 10.7 1.2 4.0 6.5 5.2 76 3.8
Saudi Kayan 11.55 4619.4 - 20.3 -5.2 4.4 1.3 -1.7 0.0 1.8 50 11.9
Sidi Kerir Petchem 13.71 1024.1 8.0 7.8 35.1 34.8 2.8 26.5 10.2 11.4 70 0.4
Yansab 56.00 8399.0 10.9 11.6 20.8 19.4 2.1 10.8 - 4.7 51 7.0
Chemanol 12.60 405.2 17.6 14.9 6.0 6.4 1.0 3.1 - 3.8 45 4.1
APPC 31.80 1390.5 13.1 12.9 16.1 20.2 2.1 9.9 7.6 6.5 60 4.3
Safco 143.75 12775.9 13.1 12.3 45.3 46.3 5.7 39.9 7.9 7.3 37 7.4
Ma'aden 29.70 7325.1 27.5 20.3 6.2 7.1 1.7 2.2 - - 47 7.1
Tasnee 26.30 4690.7 10.5 9.7 15.3 13.9 1.5 4.1 7.2 6.7 47 10.7
Average 14.8 13.3 16.8 17.9 2.1 10.9 6.0 5.7
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News FlowNational Petrochemical Co started an unscheduled shutdown of Saudi Polymer unit for about two weeks. The financial impact of
shutdown is expected to be around SAR 70mn and will impact Q2 and Q3 2013 earnings. (Bloomberg)
Qatar Gas Transports joint venture Maran Nakilat signed a USD 662.4mn refinancing accord with Qatar Islamic Bank and Barwa
Bank. The accord will help the company to expand its fleet to 6 LNG tankers from 4. (Bloomberg)
y = -2.0585x + 45.187R = 0.4072
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Yansab
Sahara
Sidi Kerir
IQ
Maaden
SAFCO
Chemanol
SIPCHEM
Tasnee
APPC
Sabic
y = 9.4216x - 7.2918R = 0.9298
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
ROA
2013
PB 2013
Saudi Kayan
YansabSahara
Sidi Kerir
IQ
Maaden
SAFCO
Chemanol
SIPCHEM
Tasnee
APPC
Sabic
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Banking Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
CIB 34.91 2966.4 9.3 8.5 22.8 21.3 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.8 63 5.2
Al Rajhi Bank 76.50 30596.3 12.4 13.5 22.8 23.1 2.7 3.2 5.0 4.7 77 35.6
Samba 51.50 12358.5 9.3 9.8 14.5 14.2 1.3 2.2 3.7 3.9 64 5.0
Riyad Bank 24.85 9938.8 10.0 10.2 11.2 11.5 1.1 1.9 5.7 5.8 55 2.9
Bank Aljazira 27.70 2215.7 15.6 13.7 10.3 11.4 1.6 1.1 - 2.3 58 5.7
NBK 930.00 14864.4 13.5 13.1 12.8 12.5 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 30 7.1
Burgan Bank 610.00 3460.0 14.0 11.5 11.9 16.0 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 48 1.9
DIB 3.18 3444.6 6.6 11.1 12.3 12.1 0.8 1.2 7.5 5.1 47 21.7
NBAD 11.45 13422.1 9.2 10.6 15.1 16.0 1.3 1.6 3.4 3.1 43 2.3
FGB 15.80 12905.2 8.4 10.7 14.8 16.7 1.2 2.5 7.2 5.0 54 10.1
ADCB 5.00 7617.3 6.1 10.1 14.3 13.6 0.8 1.5 8.3 4.9 52 8.5
QNB 162.50 31225.9 11.0 11.9 18.7 19.4 1.9 2.5 4.6 3.3 75 8.7
CBQ 70.90 4817.9 8.7 8.7 13.8 13.5 1.2 2.7 8.5 7.2 60 4.6
DB 47.30 3356.1 8.0 9.1 17.8 16.9 1.4 2.4 8.9 7.6 54 2.6
QIB 68.50 4445.0 14.3 11.2 10.9 12.9 1.5 1.9 5.0 6.4 47 1.9
Bank Muscat 0.59 3281.5 8.0 8.2 14.3 13.4 1.1 1.8 4.3 4.6 35 1.9
Average 10.3 10.7 14.9 15.3 1.4 2.0 5.4 4.6
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
y = 0.0997x + 14.455R = 0.0025
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
NBK
QNB
Al Rajhi
Bank Aljazira
QIB
Riyad Bank
CBQ
Burgan BankADCBDIB
QIB
FGB
CIB
NBADSamba
DB
y = 0.4645x + 1.2457R = 0.1537
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
ROA
2013
PB 2013
NBK
QNB
Al Rajhi
Bank Aljazira
QIBRiyad Bank
CBQ
Burgan Bank
ADCB
DIB
FGBCIB
NBADSamba
DB
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
11/22
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
12/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Real Estate Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Aldar 2.26 4859.4 4.2 10.9 17.6 5.3 0.6 3.7 4.7 2.3 57 28.4
Barwa Real Estate 26.60 2842.5 9.3 7.8 9.3 3.0 0.8 2.0 3.6 - 49 6.5
Dar AL Arkan 10.35 2980.4 9.0 10.1 6.2 6.6 0.5 4.3 - 0.0 57 72.6
Deyaar Development 0.38 593.1 52.5 15.1 1.0 3.7 0.5 0.6 - - 44 3.6
Emaar Economic City 10.00 2266.4 37.2 - 2.5 0.0 0.9 1.4 - - 53 43.0
Emaar Properties 5.32 8905.6 10.7 14.6 6.6 6.6 0.7 3.5 2.7 2.0 41 25.4
TMG Holding 4.63 1359.4 16.8 14.1 2.2 3.1 0.4 1.0 - 0.0 76 1.8
Palm Hill Developments 2.01 299.8 - 9.1 -3.9 7.1 0.8 -0.9 0.0 0.0 65 3.4
Average 20.0 11.7 5.2 4.4 0.7 1.9 2.8 0.9
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst
Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
Emaar Properties and Meraas Holding plan to start an affordable hotel chain Dubai Inn to serve a market driven partly by the growth
of low-cost airlines and planned theme parks in the UAE. (Bloomberg)
Aldar informed that the interest margin on an AED 2.1bn loan between Sorouh and a syndicate of banks has been cut to 2.45% from
4.5%. (Bloomberg)
According to reports quoting Union Properties Chairman, the company may report Q2 2013 profit of as much as AED 45mn.
(Bloomberg)
Nakheel sold two plots on Palm Jumeirahs crescent for AED 695mn. A plot to west of Atlantis was sold to a GCC investor for A ED
556mn while an Emirati investor bought a plot on eastern crescent for AED 139mn. (Bloomberg)
Moodys raised Aldar Properties rating to B1 from B2 and kept review for upgrade. (Bloomberg)
Nakheels unit The World signed two settlement agreements with combined value of about AED 185mn with investors in the World,
bringing total settlement value at the project to AED 807mn. (Bloomberg)
The Saudi State Fund has approved SAR 5bn in housing loans to citizens for building 12,018 housing units across the country.
(Bloomberg)
y = 0.0726x + 4.0814R = 0.0346
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Dar Al Arkan
TMG Holding
Deyaar
Emaar
Barwa RE
Aldary = -2.6158x + 6.2378
R = 0.0265
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
ROA
2013
PB 2013
Emaar Eco City
Barwa RE
TMG Holding
Dar Al Arkan
Emaar
Aldar
Deyaar
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
13/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Food & Retail Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Almarai 71.75 7651.8 17.6 18.3 20.2 19.7 3.4 8.2 2.0 1.9 65 9.1
Othaim 115.00 689.9 10.8 15.1 28.4 24.4 2.7 10.0 3.6 2.9 60 4.1
Alhokair 171.25 3196.3 11.8 16.6 35.8 35.4 3.8 18.8 - 2.3 77 3.9
Jarir Marketing 197.00 3151.6 16.3 18.3 59.0 57.7 9.1 30.8 4.8 4.4 68 1.9
Savola 50.00 6665.9 14.3 15.2 17.5 18.7 2.4 6.5 3.5 3.2 54 4.4
Agthia 3.20 522.7 10.5 13.2 11.5 13.2 1.2 7.9 2.3 2.3 61 0.3
Average 13.6 16.1 28.7 28.2 3.8 13.7 3.2 2.8
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
Majid Al Futtaim said it will invest AED 3bn in projects across Dubai. The company will expand its Mall of the Emirates and build a
community mall. It also plans to build two hotels and will upgrade two existing properties. (Bloomberg)
According to reports, Dubai Duty Free is seeking to lower the interest on a USD 1.75bn loan by as much as 31% after Dubais default
risk plunged since the financing was signed last July. (Bloomberg)
y = 5.3016x - 57.231R = 0.4189
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Savola
Othaim
Alhokair
Almarai
Jarir Mktg
Agithia
y = 2.7644x + 1.3233R = 0.9052
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
ROA
2013
PB 2013
Alhokair
Savola
Agithia
Jarir
Almarai
Othaim
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14/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Construction & Building Materials Sector
PE/ROE 2013EPB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Arabtec 2.10 1803.5 25.3 15.6 4.8 7.6 1.2 1.6 - 1.4 52 14.7
Depa 0.41 252.0 - 11.6 -7.3 1.0 0.5 -3.9 0.0 0.0 52 0.0
DSI 0.94 590.4 16.8 14.4 3.5 5.4 0.6 1.5 - 2.7 43 11.2
OCIC 246.18 7318.4 31.9 10.7 - 21.1 - - - 4.8 65 2.3
Average 24.7 13.1 0.3 8.8 0.8 -0.2 0.0 2.2
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
Orascom Construction was awarded USD 420mn worth of infrastructure contracts in Saudi Arabia. (Bloomberg)
y = -0.7516x + 18.546R = 0.1126
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
OCIC
Depa
DSI
Arabtec
y = 4.7374x - 1.7773R = 0.8554
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
ROA2013
PB 2013
Arabtec
DSI
Depa
OCIC
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
15/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Energy & Utilities Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Dana Gas 0.55 1006.6 4.9 5.2 7.1 8.9 0.3 4.9 - - 43 3.0
QEWC 162.10 4451.6 9.2 11.3 41.8 37.0 3.4 6.4 5.5 5.1 68 1.5
Saudi Electricity 12.90 14331.4 21.8 16.4 4.8 5.9 1.0 1.1 5.2 5.4 47 9.0
Tabreed 1.85 337.3 15.2 7.8 5.8 5.3 0.2 2.7 - - 53 9.5
Average 12.8 10.2 14.9 14.3 1.3 3.8 5.4 5.3
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
Dana Gas said it made discovery of fuel at Bengonia-1 well in Egypt. (Bloomberg)
Saudi Electricity signed a SAR 6.3bn order to replace old cables and support electricity network in Saudi Arabia. (Bloomberg)
y = 0.3787x + 10.198R = 0.0145
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
QEWC
Dana Gas Saudi ElectricityTabreed
y = 8.5918x - 5.5003R = 0.365
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
ROA
2013
PB 2013
Amiantit
Elsewedy
GB Auto
KIPCO
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
16/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Industrials Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
El Ezz Steel Rebars 472.99 919.8 10.5 10.7 19.2 - 2.1 3.8 12.5 8.7 74 0.0
Elswedy ElectriC 20.53 652.6 43.9 11.3 2.3 7.1 1.1 0.8 - 3.7 62 0.4
GB Auto 28.28 519.1 16.4 14.5 10.6 15.1 1.7 3.6 - 4.2 64 0.2
Oriental Weavers 21.85 279.8 7.6 7.4 9.3 9.9 0.7 4.4 - 10.3 59 0.2
Saudi Arabian Amiantit 13.95 429.6 14.7 9.9 7.0 8.8 1.1 2.4 - 8.0 47 3.1
Saudi Cable 13.35 270.5 - 8.3 -16.3 12.1 1.1 -4.0 0.0 6.3 50 3.8
KIPCO 550.00 2698.9 16.1 16.7 5.5 7.2 1.0 0.5 5.1 3.6 72 2.4
Dubai Investments 1.41 1390.1 9.5 - 3.8 - 0.4 2.4 8.2 - 50 15.9
Average 17.0 11.3 5.2 10.0 1.1 1.8 6.4 6.4
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
y = -0.8711x + 15.147R = 0.1794
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
Amiantit
El swedy
GB Auto
Oriental Weavers
Saudi Cable
KIPCOy = 8.5918x - 5.5003
R = 0.365
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
ROA2013
PB 2013
Amiantit
Elsewedy
GB Auto
KIPCO
-
7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
17/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Transport & Logistics Sector
PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
Air Arabia 1.09 1384.9 9.3 11.4 7.9 8.5 0.7 5.5 8.4 6.1 49 6.7
Aramex 2.60 1036.4 12.0 13.6 12.6 13.0 1.5 9.4 5.0 4.4 69 1.2
DPW 15.30 12699.0 13.0 22.7 9.6 6.9 1.2 4.3 1.8 1.6 43 3.1
National Shipping Co 20.00 1679.8 12.0 11.1 9.6 9.7 1.1 4.6 5.2 6.1 58 5.1
Agility 660.00 2536.6 14.8 13.5 3.8 5.9 0.6 2.4 5.9 4.5 46 4.9
QGTS 18.72 2878.9 11.0 12.4 47.6 56.5 4.8 2.5 6.6 6.0 65 3.4
Average 12.0 14.1 15.2 16.7 1.6 4.8 5.5 4.8
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
y = -1.4241x + 34.357R = 0.0719
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0
BEstROE
2013
BEst PE 2013
QGTS
Aramex
N. ShippingDPW
AgilityAir Arabia
y = 4.9412x - 0.0742R = 0.3011
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
ROA
2013
PB 2013
Aramex
DPW
Air Arabia
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7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707
18/22
Research from Emirates NBD
Financial Services Sector
Company Price LLC
Market Cap
(USD mn)
PE
2012
BEst
PE
2013
ROE
2012
BEst
ROE
2013
PB
2012
ROA
2012
Dvd
Yld
2012
BEst
DvdYld
2013 RSI
Avg Value
Traded 3m
(USD mn)
DFM 1.76 3855.2 231.8 77.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.1 51 18.3
EFG-Hermes 8.73 594.1 102.1 13.0 0.7 4.5 0.6 0.1 - 5.7 67 4.3
Tamweel 1.09 296.8 15.7 12.8 3.2 - 0.5 0.7 4.4 4.6 20 0.4
Average 116.5 34.3 1.4 3.3 0.7 0.4 2.2 3.8
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst
Bloomberg Estimate
News Flow
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19/22
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Research from Emirates NBD
Other Asset Classes
CurrenciesClose %5d chg 1 year fwd Close %5d chg Close %5d chg
EURUSD 1.2829 -1.39 1.2867 USDTRY 1.9675 -2.00 EURAED 4.7126 +1.41
GBPUSD 1.4890 -2.12 1.4868 USDEGP 7.0283 -0.17 GBPAED 5.4670 +2.18
USDJPY 101.2000 -2.04 100.7580 USDSAR 3.7505 -0.01 JPYAED 0.0363 +2.07
USDCAD 1.0582 -0.60 1.0673 USDQAR 3.6415 -0.01 CADAED 3.4729 +0.52
AUDUSD 0.9067 -0.78 0.8843 USDKWD 0.2865 -0.48 AUDAED 3.3296 +0.81
USDCHF 0.9640 -1.97 0.9588 USDBHD 0.3770 -- CHFAED 3.8110 +2.00
EURGBP 0.8618 -0.76 0.8656 USDOMR 0.3850 -- TRYAED 1.8700 +1.60
USDCNY 6.1328 +0.08 6.1344 USDMAD 8.6558 -1.14 INRAED 0.0605 +1.84
Rates
Interbank 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Swaps Close 5d chg (bps)
EIBOR 0.5857 0.9114 1.1486 1.3314 USD 2 yr 0.5850 7.5
USD LIBOR 0.1948 0.2699 0.4099 0.6897 USD 5 yr 1.8196 25.4
GBP LIBOR 0.4931 0.5088 0.5949 0.8894 USD 10 yr 2.9940 29.7
EURIBOR 0.0736 0.1414 0.2471 0.4514 EUR 2 yr 0.5225 -7.7
JPY LIBOR 0.1171 0.1564 0.2307 0.4193 EUR 5 yr 1.1663 -6.7
CHF LIBOR -0.0040 0.0190 0.0804 0.2434 EUR 10 yr 2.0240 0.8
Commodities & Fixed Income
Commodities Close %5d chg Bonds / Sukuk YTM 5d chg (bps) CDS Close 5d chg (bps)
CRB CMDT Index - 0.47 ADGB 5.5 14 0.6110 -37.5 Abu Dhabi 74.2 -7.0
Gold 1223.20 -0.92 DUGB 6.396 14 2.2190 -12.5 Dubai 220.0 -19.1
Silver 18.91 -3.83 QATAR 5.15 14 0.4520 -50.0 Qatar 78.6 -6.4
Oil (WTI) 103.22 +6.36 BHRAIN 6.273 18 3.7800 +150.0 Saudi Arabia 71.1 -8.3
Oil (Brent) 107.72 +5.44 EGYPT 5.75 20 9.0550 +307.1 Bahrain 231.0 -28.4
Aluminium 1723.75 -0.35 TURKEY 7.25 15 2.3400 +25.5 Egypt 773.8 -107.9
Copper 6782.50 +0.77 MOROC 5.375 17 3.0320 +161.5 Turkey 200.0 +9.0
Tin (LME) 18788.00 -4.23 BTUN 4.5 20 5.3920 +50.0 Morocco 240.0 -37.4
Zinc (LME) 1808.50 -0.69 US Tsy 2 yr 0.3948 +3.9
US Tsy 10 yr 2.7391 +25.3
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
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Research from Emirates NBD
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Research from Emirates NBD
Emirates NBD Research & Treasury Contact List
Emirates NBD Head Office12th FloorBaniyas Road, DeiraP.O Box 777Dubai
Aazar Ali KhwajaGroup Treasurer & EVP Global Markets &Treasury+971 4 609 [email protected]
Tim FoxHead of Research &Chief Economist+971 4 230 [email protected]
Research
Khatija HaqueSenior Economist+971 4 509 [email protected]
Irfan EllamHead of MENA Equity Research+971 4 509 [email protected]
Aditya PugaliaAnalyst+971 4 230 [email protected]
Jean-Paul PigatMENA Economist+971 4 230 [email protected]
Sales & Structuring
Head of Sales & StructuringSayed Sajjid Sadiq+971 4 230 [email protected]
Saudi Arabia SalesNumair Attiyah+966 1 282 [email protected]
Singapore SalesSupriyakumar Sakhalkar+65 65785 [email protected]
London SalesLee Sims+44 (0) 20 7838 [email protected]
EgyptShahinaz Foda+20 22 726 [email protected]
Group Corporate Communications
Ibrahim Sowaidan+971 4 609 [email protected]
Claire Andrea+971 4 609 [email protected]