U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Priced as of prior trading day’s market close, ET (unless otherwise noted).

For Required Conflicts Disclosures, please see 5.

INDUSTRY COMMENT FEBRUARY 15, 2012

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

A Sentimental Journey

Sentiment and value are cornerstones of the return generation process. We find that shifts in sentiment are critical on short-term investment horizons.

For example, our work shows that changes in perception account for about

two-thirds of the market’s return on a six-month horizon, and that even under

the conditions of attractive value, bearish sentiment can drive prices lower and

vice versa. Mean reversion is key to correctly using most sentiment gauges,

where one attempts to arbitrage the belief that a recent trend will persist.

Meanwhile, the market’s fundamental underpinnings become more important

for investors with horizons that extend beyond a two-year time frame.

In this week’s report, we take a closer look at the message from two

groups of sentiment indicators:

1) Market sentiment. The gauges included under this heading are direct

surveys of investor sentiment and indirect measures such as the VIX and

put-call ratio. A contrary signal from this group of metrics usually has a

lifespan that lasts anywhere from several days to weeks. Currently,

collective market sentiment warns of increasing optimism and the risk

of a short-term pullback. Some of the more stretched readings are found

in the AAII Bull ratio, NAAIM Sentiment of Managers survey, and the

NYSE New Highs / New Lows ratio.

2) Economic sentiment. This group of indicators typically turns on a 6- to 9-

month cycle; a time frame that better aligns with the ebb and flow of

business cycle dynamics. Some of these indicators include the NFIB Small

Business Optimism Index, ISM, and the Conference Board’s Consumer

and CEO sentiment surveys. In effect, economic sentiment gauges are tolls

that help us track a dominant underlying behavioral path, with extreme

readings generally marking multi-month turning points in share price

performance. In contrast to the short-term sentiment gauges, economic

sentiment readings remain on the pessimistic side of neutral but are

improving.

Bottom Line: Our assessment of shorter- and longer-term sentiment gauges

leads us to believe that a possible correction, which has probably already

started, represents an interruption in a rally that began last fall. We remain

positive on the equity market.

Please see our new expanded summary section on pages 13–14.

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Myles Zyblock, CFA (Analyst) Chief Institutional Strategist & Director of Capital Markets Research (416) 842-7805 [email protected]

Kien Lim (Associate Analyst) (416) 842-8745 [email protected]

Nick Chomey (Associate) (416) 842-8799 [email protected]

February 15, 2012 RBC U.S. Equity Strategy

2

Decomposing market returns into P/E and E

The market’s return for a given investment horizon can be decomposed into the change in price plus the change in earnings.

Changes in earnings (i.e., fundamentals) dictate market returns for horizons greater than five years.

However, we find that changes in valuations (i.e., psychology) dominate the market’s return profile for horizons under 12 months.

In the following pages, we attempt to gauge the current “psychology” of the economy and markets by examining various sentiment indicators that are available to us.

)1(t

t

t EE

PP

)2(%%%%% E

E

PE

E

PE

E

PP

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108

Investment Horizon (months)

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o P

rice R

etu

rn

Operating EPS P/E

Source: RBC Capital Markets Research, Haver Analytics Investment Horizon % Contribution to Price Return

(months) Operating EPS Price-to-Earnings

1 4 96

3 17 82

6 34 66

12 41 60

24 56 44

36 61 40

60 56 44

120 85 14

Source: RBC Capital Markets Research


3

Market and Economic Sentiment

Market sentiment gauges included under this heading are direct surveys of investor sentiment and indirect measures such as the VIX and put-call ratio. A contrary signal from this group of metrics usually has a lifespan that lasts anywhere from several days to weeks.

Economic sentiment indicators typically turn on a 6- to 9-month cycle, a time frame that better mimics the ebb and flow of business cycle dynamics. Some of these indicators include the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, ISM, and the Conference Board’s Consumer and CEO sentiment surveys.

The following pages include a sample of market and economic sentiment indicators as described above.

Source: RBC Capital Markets

Market Sentiment

Economic Sentiment


4

Market Sentiment

The CBOE Put-to-Call ratio measures the volume of equity puts versus the volume of calls traded on a given day.

It is currently in neutral territory after peaking in August 2011.

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Bull ratio is based on the number of respondents who are bullish versus those who are currently bearish on equities over the next six months.

The ratio is currently extended relative to its 15-year history, as it sits above a one standard deviation level.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12

AAII Bull Ratio (4 wk ma) Average +/- 1 Stdev

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Haver Analytics

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (21 DMA) Average +/-1 Std Dev

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg


5

Market Sentiment (cont’d)

The Investors Intelligence Bullish Ratio is based on a survey of various newsletters and determines whether the publisher is bullish, bearish, or neutral.

The ratio is currently in neutral territory relative to its history after bottoming in October 2011 in the extreme pessimism zone.

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Survey of Manager Sentiment is a gauge of the members’ overall equity exposure.

Over the past four months, sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to an almost extreme optimism level.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9


II Advisors Bullish Ratio (4 wk ma) Average +/- 1 Stdev

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Trend & Cycle

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12

NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment Average +/- 1 Stdev

Source: RBC Capital Markets, NAAIM


6

Market Sentiment (cont’d)

The NYSE New High / New Low ratio is a breadth indicator that measures the number of NYSE stocks that closed at a new 52-week high versus the number that reached a new 52-week low as of the daily close.

Currently, the ratio is at an extreme-high level.

The VIX is a measure of implied volatility of near-term, at-the-money S&P 500 options.

The higher the level in the VIX, the more implied volatility is perceived for the horizon. Currently, the VIX is at a neutral level relative to its history.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


NYSE New High / New Low Ratio Average +/- 1 Stdev


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

VIX (21 DMA) Average +/-1 Std Dev



7

Market Sentiment Summary

We have created an aggregate market sentiment indicator based on the various gauges of the previous pages.

Currently, the indicator is approaching an extremely optimistic reading.

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 S&P 500 40 wk ma

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Trend & Cycle, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12

RBCCM Market Sentiment Indicator

Note: Indicator is based on CBOE Put/Call Ratio, AAII Bull Ratio, II Advisors Bullish Ratio,

NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment, NYSE New High/New Low Ratio, and VIX

?

RBCCM Market Sentiment Indicator Component Summary (Z-Score)

Current Level

CBOE Put/Call Index 0.04

II Advisors Bullish Ratio 0.08

VIX 0.44

NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment 0.93

AAII Bull Ratio 1.00

NYSE New High vs New Low 1.04

RBCCM Market Sentiment Indicator 0.76



8

Economic Sentiment

The index of economic policy uncertainty was created by Professors Bloom (Stanford) and Davis (University of Chicago). The indicator consists of: (i) the frequency of references to economic uncertainty and policy in Google; (ii) the number of Federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years; and (iii) the extent of disagreement among economic forecasters over future Federal government purchases and CPI inflation.

Although the index peaked in August last year and has moved markedly lower, it still remains quite extended relative to its 15-year history.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index provides a gauge for the sentiment of businesses that employ 10 people on average and report gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

This index has, in large part, resided at the lower end of its historical range since January 2008. However, the underlying trend appears to be positive with a move toward neutral.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


Economic Policy Uncertainty Index +/-1 Std Dev Average


85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120


NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index +/-1 Std Dev Average



9

Economic Sentiment (cont’d)

The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide.

An index reading above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity while a reading below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.

Currently the index is sitting at a neutral level with a 3-month positive trend.

The ISM Non-manufacturing Index is similar to its manufacturing counterpart except that the survey is applied to the non-manufacturing sector of the economy.

It also has a boom-bust line that is centered around the 50 level. Although the current reading of 56.8 is in neutral territory, it is fast approaching a level consistent with extreme optimism.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


ISM Manufacturing +/-1 Std Dev Average


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


ISM Non-manufacturing +/-1 Std Dev Average



10


Consumer attitudes toward equities is a sub-component in the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence. It is the net of expectations for higher versus lower stock market prices in 12 months’ time.

Currently, the spread has just entered the neutral zone from extreme pessimism territory.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a survey of the members of the National Association of Homebuilders.

It is a gauge for new home sales activity.

The index has resided in extreme pessimism territory since July 2007 but is showing signs of improvement.

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


Conference Board's Consumer Stock Price Expectations +/-1 Std Dev Average


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Housing Market Index +/-1 Std Dev Average



11


The CEO Business Confidence is another survey from the Conference Board. It measures the sentiment of U.S. chief executives based on a quarterly survey.

The index has just bounced off the lower band of its historical range and currently resides in neutral territory.

The high yield credit spread is an implicit market sentiment gauge on the outlook of the economy. The wider the spread between the high yield asset versus government bonds, the higher the implied risk to the prospects for economic growth.

Currently, the spread is at a neutral level.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Merrill High Yield - U.S. 10 Yr Treasury +/-1 Std Dev Average


20

30

40

50

60

70

80


CEO Business Confidence Survey +/-1 Std Dev Average



12

Economic Sentiment Summary

We have aggregated the various economic sentiment indicators into one broad gauge.

The current reading is neutral.

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 S&P 500 40 wk ma

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Trend & Cycle, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


RBCCM Economic Sentiment Indicator

Note: Indicator is based on Economic Policy Uncertainty, NFIB Small

Business Optimism, ISM Mfg, ISM Non-Mfg, HMI, Conf Board Consumer Equity

Sentiment, High Yield Spread.

RBCCM Economic Sentiment Indicator Component Summary (Z-Score)

Current Level

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index -1.23

Housing Market Index -0.99

NFIB Small Business Optimism -0.67

Conference Board Consumer Expectations for Stock Prices -0.63

CEO Business Confidence -0.34

ISM Manufacturing 0.39

ISM Non-Manufacturing 0.70

High Yield Credit Spread 2.33

RBCCM Economic Sentiment Indicator -0.09



13

RBC CM U.S. Equity Market Views

S&P 500 Earnings Outlook

85.3

97.0

101.0

85.3

98.0

108.0

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2010 2011 2012

S&P 500 EPS Estimate ($)

RBC Consensus

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Thomson

S&P 500 Sector Recommendations Summary U.S. Equity Sectors

Current Recommendation

Recent Change (February 8, 2012)

Financials Overweight Upgraded from Market Weight

Industrials Overweight None

Information Technology Overweight None

Consumer Staples Market Weight Downgraded from Overweight

Health Care Market Weight None

Energy Market Weight None

Utilities Underweight None

Telecom Services Underweight None

Materials Underweight None

Consumer Discretionary Underweight None

Source: RBC Capital Markets

Market Outlook (Next 6 – 9 months)

Overweight

Market Weight + X

Market Weight

Market Weight -

Underweight

▲/▼ Directional Bias. Source: RBC Capital Markets

High

Risk Rating

Neutral

Low


14

Market Update

Recent Publications

Raising Financials, Lowering Consumer Staples – Reducing our defensive sector portfolio exposure – Feb 8, 2012

A Closer Look at the Q4 Reporting Season – Weak results thus far for S&P 500 – Feb 1, 2012

"Chart Toppers" Revisited (vol. 9) – A selection of our favorite market, sector, and style charts – Jan 25, 2012

Upgrading S&P 500 Financials, Downgrading Utilities – Better economy and receding market and political risks – Jan 18, 2012

Insights from Sector & Group Estimate Revisions – Signals from consensus earnings estimate revisions – Jan 11, 2012

Select Thematic Reports over the Past Year

Our Key Non-Forecasts for 2012 – Revisiting the folly of forecasting – Dec 21, 2011

Addressing High Correlation and Low Dispersion – Prescription for a high correlation world – Dec 14, 2011

North American Equity Strategy Outlook - New Year 2012 – Macro, market, sector, and style outlook for Q1 2012 – Dec 9, 2011

We Are All Global Macro Investors Now – A Monte Carlo simulation argues for 15–20 portfolio holdings – Oct 5, 2011

Perception Is Reality in the Short Term – Changes in valuation account for majority of short-term performance – Aug 17, 2011

Stuck in Neutral – Looking at the earnings season “Numbers Game” – Jul 27, 2011

A Powerful Combo: Industry + Stock-Specific Momentum – Industry trends dominate the Momentum effect – June 15, 2011

Asset Growth: Cull the Weak – Slowest-growing companies outperform fastest growers in next year – Mar 16, 2011

Benchmark Performance Review (% chg)

1wk 1mo 3mo 12mo QTD YTD

CAPITALIZATION

S&P 500 0.3 4.8 7.9 1.4 7.4 7.4

S&P 400 0.2 7.4 10.3 (0.1) 10.7 10.7

S&P 600 (0.9) 6.9 12.6 4.4 10.1 10.1

STYLE

S&P 500 Pure Value 0.4 8.0 11.1 2.4 13.2 13.2

S&P 500 Pure Growth 0.6 6.4 6.5 1.6 9.9 9.9

S&P 400 Pure Value (0.7) 6.9 12.7 (3.3) 11.5 11.5

S&P 400 Pure Growth 1.2 8.6 9.4 4.8 13.1 13.1

S&P 600 Pure Value (0.9) 10.0 17.6 2.1 14.9 14.9

S&P 600 Pure Growth (1.0) 7.0 9.7 7.5 8.8 8.8

S&P 500 SECTOR BENCHMARKS

Energy (0.6) 5.0 3.8 (2.5) 5.3 5.3

Materials (2.5) 1.6 6.0 (7.3) 9.6 9.6

Industrials 0.3 4.6 11.1 (1.9) 9.9 9.9

Info Tech 1.8 9.8 9.9 5.8 12.7 12.7

Consumer Disc 0.6 5.6 8.9 8.3 9.1 9.1

Financials (0.7) 5.2 12.4 (14.9) 11.7 11.7

Consumer Staples 0.9 1.9 5.1 11.3 0.6 0.6

Health Care 0.1 2.0 7.0 11.5 4.1 4.1

Utilities (0.5) (0.5) (0.2) 9.7 (3.6) (3.6)

Telecom 0.1 (0.6) 1.9 (0.3) (2.0) (2.0)

As of February 14, 2012. Source: RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_FB6DACEB03C8ADDE00F37E9C643ED6AE

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_8848A61CC775CCBC9FB20E1CEE2D2774

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_B846D33B78F6E7F142F3B65374EDB840

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_E614891B051DEA64959D2E3987195637

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_5E9DCB3B128A8FDA704B88C7A703E991

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_4114F5F8D292E9AE079982B92CDE14D7

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_0DCEE441540A1ACBA17051F326460548

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_526A1DB81D4F4F6800E3AD3E67B976F0

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_996E15A024FE41F3730FAD38351274FA

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_EB58D266B09AEA3B8F24C2961331E8A9

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_62B384A160FE853DBF7706A5DF687E49

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_E3EAA6794632CCD0FB3F9BD48F68866C

https://www.rbcinsight.com/share/pdf.asp?SSS_7F5E30A07A711FF4882B6195F8CB67C1


15

Required Disclosures

Conflicts Disclosures

The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total

revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by

investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.

Distribution of Ratings

Distribution of Ratings RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research

Investment Banking

Serv./Past 12 Mos.

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

BUY[TP/O] 774 51.90 224 28.94

HOLD[SP] 648 43.40 146 22.53

SELL[U] 71 4.80 5 7.04

Conflicts Policy

RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request. To

access our current policy, clients should refer to https://www.rbccm.com/global/file-414164.pdf or send a request to RBC CM

Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7. We

reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy at any time.

Dissemination of Research and Short-Term Trade Ideas

RBC Capital Markets endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard

to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. RBC Capital Markets' research is posted to our proprietary websites to ensure eligible

clients receive coverage initiations and changes in ratings, targets and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be

done by the sales personnel via email, fax or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via third-party vendors. Please contact

your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information regarding RBC Capital Markets' research. RBC Capital

Markets also provides eligible clients with access to SPARC on its proprietary INSIGHT website. SPARC contains market color and

commentary, and may also contain Short-Term Trade Ideas regarding the securities of subject companies discussed in this or other

research reports. SPARC may be accessed via the following hyperlink: https://www.rbcinsight.com. A Short-Term Trade Idea reflects

the research analyst's directional view regarding the price of the security of a subject company in the coming days or weeks, based on

market and trading events. A Short-Term Trade Idea may differ from the price targets and/or recommendations in our published

research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one year) prospects of the subject company, as a result of

the differing time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. Thus, it is possible that the security of a subject company that is

considered a long-term 'Sector Perform' or even an 'Underperform' might be a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary

selling pressure in the market; conversely, the security of a subject company that is rated a long-term 'Outperform' could be considered

susceptible to a short-term downward price correction. Short-Term Trade Ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system,

and RBC Capital Markets generally does not intend, nor undertakes any obligation, to maintain or update Short-Term Trade Ideas.

Short-Term Trade Ideas discussed in SPARC may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor

circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any Short-Term Trade Ideas

discussed therein.

Analyst Certification

All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the

subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or

indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.

https://www.rbccm.com/global/file-414164.pdf

https://www.rbcinsight.com/


16

Disclaimer

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All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Capital Markets’ judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This

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