Road Less Travelledbackoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Research... · a scenario, Indian...

Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

INSIDE THE ISSUE

COVID-19 CAN POSITIVELY IMPACT MORBI TILES PLAYERS

Among top 5 tiles exporting countries, three are significantly impacted by the recent Covid-19 outbreak – namely China, Italy and Spain.

Detailed story on pg. 2

TAX RATE OF 15% ON NEW SETUP MANUFACTURING UNITS

Key takeaways from our concall with Mr. Devesh Shah, a senior partner at Shailesh Haribhakti, to understand tax implications of section 115BAB.


CHINA’S SHORT SUPPLY WILL NOT AFFECT FERTILISERS SOURCING, FOR NOW

The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted the supply chain of the Indian consumer durables industry, which is highly dependent on China’s manufacturing units.


RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE

Snippets Is India ready for coronavirus?

o The big question is, will it come through this time? o What is being done for containment and is it enough? o Big boost for online grocery sales o Are the low numbers for India a lull before the storm?

Joe Biden looking like an increasingly viable candidate

Putin for President….again

News round-up of the month

Detailed story on pg. 4 & 5

Road Less Travelled

17 March 2020 | Vol-2, Issue-3 MONTHLY PUBLICATION

17 March 2020 | Vol-2, Issue-3 | Page - 2 Road Less Travelled | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER

Covid-19 can positively impact Morbi tiles players by Deepak Agarwal

Among top-5 tiles exporting countries, three, namely China, Italy and Spain, are significantly impacted by the recent Covid-19 outbreak. Given their dominance in tiles exports, our checks with tiles manufacturers suggests that their weakness could work in favour of Indian tiles exporters. These three countries are seeing shutdowns in most of their manufacturing units. Reduction in their tiles production may lead to huge supply shortages globally, which could benefit Indian tiles players, struggling because of lack of local demand (due to subdued construction activity) and oversupply (as a result of aggressive capacity additions in last few years). Our Ground View sources in the tiles-manufacturing cluster Morbi revealed that few players have already started receiving new orders from countries that were earlier catered to by China and Italy. Going ahead, they expect these orders to increase substantially. Domestic players are facing price erosion since the last few years, because of competition and structural challenges. With this exports opportunity opening up, manufacturers expect some price erosion to subside. The Indian tiles exports market size is c. Rs 100bn; manufacturers expects this to grow in high-single to low-double digits. Global production may come down by 3-4% due to the situation in Italy and

Spain. After the situation settles, demand could return, but globally annual production levels are likely to remain low compared to last year, as it is difficult to increase utilization levels of tiles plants quickly. In such a scenario, Indian players who are currently running at high utilization, will possibly benefit.

Tax rate of 15% on new setup manufacturing units by Vishal Gutka

We arranged a concall with Mr Devesh Shah, a senior partner at Shailesh Haribhakti, to understand tax implications of section 115BAB. Section 115 BAB says that a newly incorporated manufacturing company (with effect from 1st Oct 2019) can avail of a 15% concessional tax rate if: (1) 80% of its capital is deployed in buying a new plant and machinery, and (2) it begins manufacturing operation before 31st Mar 2023. If an existing manufacturing company decides to avail of this benefit by setting up of subsidiary it has to take up the onus of proving that: (1) significant value addition has been done in the newly set up company, and (2) it is not engaged in tax arbitrage activities, i.e., curtailing production in existing facilities and shifting production to ‘lower-tax’ facilities. The managements of existing manufacturing companies have to ensure that they do not violate GAAR (General Anti- Avoidance Rules) whenever they set up scaled-up capacities of existing products by starting a new unit (to avail benefits of lower tax rates). He said that concessional tax

benefits would be available for an infinite period, once a newly established manufacturing company complies with pre-mentioned conditions.


China’s short supply will not affect fertilisers sourcing, for now by Deepak Chitroda

The Indian fertiliser sector is largely dependent on imported raw

materials and finished products. In terms of finished products,

major imports include urea (50-55% import dependency) and Di-

Ammonium Phosphate (DAP, 10-12%). There is a big fear that a

lock down in China due to Covid 19 may impact supply of these

finished products. But India has a major advantage – it can source

products from countries other than China (see chart), suggesting

limited risk because of lower China supplies.

Many traders believe that India can easily source DAP and urea

from the Middle East (Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE),

Morocco, Jordan, and the USA. One large Singapore-based trader

of DAP and urea said, “We are not facing any shortages. There is

enough DAP and urea available in the Middle East. In fact, China

gained a major share in the past few years only because of lower

prices”. Indian importers also share similar views towards

sourcing from China. One large importer of DAP/urea in India

told us, “See, there is a lull period as rabi season is over. We need

materials by May for kharif demand. So, we have enough time

before we start importing. Also, there are better alternatives

available beyond China, so there are no worries”.

It seems like shortages of DAP from China are easily replaceable

and there is an ample buffer of two months before real

consumption starts for the kharif season. However, traders are

expecting international prices (urea and DAP) to see a rising trend

in the coming weeks due to short supply from China. In one

month, DAP prices have already touched US$ 315-320/t from

about US$ 290-295/t. Importers believe these rising prices will

lead to two things: (1) higher DAP MRPs or (2) the Indian

government will need to increase subsidy for 2020-21 under the

NBS (nutrient based subsidy) policy so that farmers’ costs (MRPs)

do not increase.

Ammonia, phosphoric acid and phosphate rock are major raw

materials for producing non-urea products where India’s

dependency on imports is about 90%, 85% and 50% respectively.

However, these are all sourced outside of China – i.e., Morocco,

Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Togo, South Africa,

and the USA. Therefore, these raw materials do not face

shortages.

Nevertheless, the rapid outbreak of Covid 19 in countries other

than China indicates, overall, a major risk in terms of sourcing

raw materials and finished products. One trader of phosphoric

acid in Dubai said “Well, this is an extreme scenario. I believe it

will lead to substantial rise in MRPs as companies will pass on the

higher cost to farmers. I think the government will support with

more subsidies so that MRPs do not rise rapidly”. The

government’s role will be important in extreme -shortage

scenarios where it would have to increase subsidies so that

farmers can buy fertilisers at affordable prices.


Maroon: 30+ confirmed cases Red: 10-29 confirmed cases Pink: 1-9 confirmed cases Blue: Suspected cases

RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE – by Roshan Sony

Snippets

Is India ready for coronavirus? Much of the global news and dialogue was centred around coronavirus, especially its horrific spread in Italy, even as the new cases in epicentre China dropped sharply.

Health Minister Harsh Vardhan told the media that India began screening people at airports from 17 January, just six days after China’s first known death

from coronavirus was reported. More notably, as he pointed out, this was two weeks before the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus a global health emergency. While nobody can be exactly sure why India has come through some of the worst epidemics in recent years, the fact is – it has, despite its creaky and cranky healthcare infrastructure. It has an impressive record in overcoming polio and resisting the swine flu pandemic of 2009. The way the recent deadly Nipah virus was quickly contained was absolutely stellar. The big question is, will it come through this time? Various reports indicated that India’s best bet is containment, which it has managed commendably for now. Almost all the known cases have had travel histories in affected countries. On 3 March 2020, the Indian government had suspended issuing new visas and visas already issued for nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. By 11 March 2020, the Indian government suspended all visas to India. However, with a country as populous as India with densely inhabited cities such as Mumbai, things can go wrong quite quickly. And India’s current quality of healthcare, uneven at best, can get quickly inundated if containment fails. Containment failure will lead to massive short supplies of masks, gloves, gowns, drugs, medical staff, and ventilators – particularly the last two. What is being done for containment and is it enough? Some states such as Karnataka, Odisha, Delhi and Bihar have virtually shut down. States such as Kerala, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Goa have taken partial shut downs (school, colleges, some malls, marriage halls, etc.). Indian courts have taken partial shut downs. There is an ongoing and quite large exodus from cities to villages. However, within metros, most people are still taking public transport and going to work. It remains to be seen whether the government will take a quick call to shut down everything (offices and all public areas) especially in populous cities such as Mumbai, however pre-emptive it may seem. The first Covid-19 case was reported in India (Kerala) on 30 January 2020, originating from China. As of 16 March 2020, officially, there are 126 cases and 3 deaths.

Big boost for online grocery sales Online grocery vendors such as Grofers and Bigbasket are doing roaring business with people not only stocking up for an eventuality, but also because they are reluctant to go to grocery shops. Are the low numbers for India a lull before the storm?

As of writing this, the total number of coronavirus cases in India had jumped to 126. There were several fresh cases coming in from states including Odisha and Maharashtra

and Ladakh. However, the prevalence and proliferation was still lower than what had happened in Europe. Is this the lull before the storm, is the suddenly warmer weather truly helping, are numbers being held back from the media? Time will tell.

Joe Biden looking like an increasingly viable candidate To secure a Democratic nomination, candidates need 1,991 delegates. At the time of writing this, Biden, quite surprisingly, had 664 vs. Sen. Bernie Sanders' 573. Just about a fortnight ago, he was no longer considered a front runner. Biden has secured

South Carolina, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan and has good support from black voters. Michigan is also a significant win because Sanders had won there in 2016, which had boosted his campaign. Next up for voting are Midwest, Ohio, and Illinois. Meanwhile Trump, remarkably, faces very little opposition within his party and is expected to sweep up his nomination.

Putin for President….again Russia's constitution allows presidents to serve two six-year terms in a row, but this might change soon. Vladimir Putin has endorsed a proposed constitutional amendment that will allow him to hold on to power until 2036. While Putin would have had to step down in 2024, with the amendment (Russia's lower house has already given a nod to this) Putin can now run for two more terms. Putin has been at Russia’s helm

since 1999 and with this latest move, it seems like he plans on remaining president-in-perpetuity, almost.


News round-up of the month

F e b r u a r y ( 1 5 - 2 9 )

INDIA President Trump visits India.

Delhi riots: Multiple incidents of religiously driven bloodshed, property destruction, and

rioting break out in North East Delhi (from the night of

23 February 2020) cause the death of 53 people.

India's Q3 FY20 GDP growth dips to a seven-year low of 4.7%.

Core sector grows by 2.2% in Jan.

Moody's slashes India's 2020 growth forecast to 5.4%.

Bumper harvest: Second Advance Estimates of foodgrain production released by the

Agriculture Ministry predict a record harvest of both rice and wheat. India’s food output will touch

an all-time high of 292mn tonnes (mt) in 2019-20, 6.7mt more than the previous crop year’s 285.21mt.

INTERNATIONAL Coronavirus:

Outbreak

spreads in

Europe from

Italy.

US, Taliban sign peace agreement to end 18-

year war. US will begin withdrawing hundreds

of American troops from Afghanistan; 4,000

troops will leave in coming months and the

rest (+8,000) within 14 months.

US reports first case of coronavirus on 29th

Feb.

M a r c h ( 1 - 1 5 )

INDIA WHO declares coronavirus outbreak as

pandemic.

India suspends most visas to halt coronavirus

spread.

Global drug shortage fears spike as India limits

exports; Chinese pharmaceutical ingredient

manufacturers shut shop.

Poultry firms, farmers hit due to culling.

Mumbai police impose Sec 144 to bar group

tours.

Exports post first rise in 7 months, grow by

2.91% in Feb. IIP rises marginally, inflation

eases.

Congress heavyweight Jyotiraditya Scindia

joins the BJP Party.

On 5 March 2020, the Reserve Bank of India

takes control of Yes Bank to avoid its collapse.

ED books Naresh Goyal in money-laundering

case.

Despite the

30% crash in

crude prices

between Mar

4 and 14,

India’s petrol

prices stay at about Rs 71/L and diesel at about

Rs 64/L with excise duties actually rising on

them.

With USD/INR swap, RBI plans to inject US$

2bn into forex market.

Sensex’s biggest crash ever on March 10: In

plunges 1,942 points.

EPFO rate cut to 8.5% for FY20; will affect

60mn people.

Reliance Cap defaults on Rs 55mn interest

payment to HDFC and Axis Bank.

INTERNATIONAL Oil prices see their largest single-day drop

since 1991. Saudi Arabia and the OPEC were

not able to get Russia (a major oil producer) on

board for cutting production. This triggers a

price war between Saudi and Russia where the

former actually cut its prices and media reports

even say that it plans to up its oil output.

Israel election (largely

between incumbent

Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu

and former army chief

Benny Gantz).

Netanyahu claims victory after exit polls show

narrow lead. However, Gantz wins

endorsements from 61 lawmakers, giving him

a narrow majority. He will have to form a

government in six weeks.

Greece and Turkey standoff over the flow of

migrants begins.

Asian stock markets tumble after oil prices

crash; global stocks crash on Covid fears.

US Fed cuts interest rate to almost zero.

US forces strike Taliban 4 days after signing

peace deal.

Italy expands its

lockdown to the

entire country.

Israel

quarantines

everyone

entering.

Universities across the US begin to send

students home.

Afghanistan: Incumbent President Ashraf

Ghani and rival Abdullah Abdullah both held

simultaneous swearing-in ceremonies and

declared themselves president.

Locusts swarm East Africa – Kenya, Ethiopia,

Somalia, Uganda, and South Sudan. Some also

reach Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Key indicators Sensex Falling

Gold Steady

Rupee Falling

Oil Falling

10-year G-Sec Yield Steady

Retail inflation (Feb 2020, qoq) Falling

Interest rates Steady

Current account deficit (Oct-Dec 2019) Narrowing

IIP (Jan 2020, yoy) Rising

Business confidence (4Q FY20) Rising

Manufacturing PMI (Feb 2020, mom) Falling

Services PMI (Feb 2020, mom) Rising

Consumer confidence (Q1 2020.) Falling

Forex reserves (Mar) Rising

Gold reserves (physical, Dec) Steady

Exports (Feb, mom) Rising

Imports (Feb, mom) Falling

Car production (Jan, mom) Rising

Car registrations (Feb, mom) Steady

Trade deficit (Feb, mom) Narrowed

Aluminium price (30-day) Steady

Aluminium inventory (30-day) Falling

Copper price (30-day) Falling

Copper inventory (30-day) Falling

Zinc (30-day) Falling

Zinc inventory (30-day) Rising


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