Daily Agri Report Aug 25 - Angel Backoffice

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Commodities Daily Report Agricultural Commodities Saturday| August 25, 2012 www.angelcommodities.com Content News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Mentha Potato Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected] Research Team Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Transcript of Daily Agri Report Aug 25 - Angel Backoffice

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Mentha

Potato

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.

Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and

correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in

part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130

Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights (% change) as on Aug 24, 2012

Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

Sensex 17783 -0.38 0.71 5.37 10.17

Nifty 5387 -0.53 0.44 5.25 11.17

INR/$ 55.49 0.42 -0.23 -0.77 21.32

Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 96.15 -0.12 0.58 9.09 16.72

Comex Gold - $/oz 1669.8 0.01 3.32 5.88 -8.20

Source: Reuters

News in brief Rice, oilseeds sowing gains on monsoon’s revival Vigorous monsoon last week has provided a fillip to the last phase of

khariff crops sowing such as rice and oilseeds. Rice acreage expanded by

22 lakh hectares during the week as transplantation picked up pace in

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Among coarse

cereals, the shortfall in acreage is mainly in bajra, sorghum and ragi. The

acreage under maize is marginally short of last year’s level at 71.26 lakh

tonnes. The deficit in pulses acreage has also been largely reduced.

Acreage under tur or arhar stood at 34.78 lh for the week, against last

year’s 35.96 lh. Urad registered a higher acreage of 22.30 lh against last

year’s 20.38 lh. However, moong acreage trails by about 4 lh at 17.33

lakh ha, largely on account of poor sowing in Rajasthan, though the area

is higher in Maharashtra. The deficit in total oilseed acreage at 5 lh has

largely been offset by higher soyabean planting though sowing of

groundnut has been hit due to poor rains in Saurashtra, Gujarat.

Groundnut acreage stood at 36 lh against last year’s 41.21 lh, while

soyabean area was higher by about 4 lh at 106.77 lh. Other oilseeds such

as sunflower, sesamum and castor have registered lower acreage.

Gujarat has seen a 5 lh drop in cotton acreage, while in MP and

Karnataka, the decline is by about one lh. (Source: Business Line)

Monsoon flares up over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka The monsoon strengthened overnight on Friday in interior peninsula

bringing heavy to very heavy rain to Rayalaseema and south interior

Karnataka. Triggering of a causative system in the form of a circulation

over northwest Bay of Bengal occasioned the flare-up. The system has

since persisted there. Meanwhile, Korean forecaster APCC (Asia Pacific

Climate Centre) has September rains are likely to be normal to excess for

south peninsular India. But the rest of the country (Central India,

northwest India, east and northeast India) is likely to witness below

normal to deficient rain during the month, last of the season. Post this,

October might witness deficient rain along the west coast and west

Maharashtra. But the rains are likely to be near-normal for the rest of the

south peninsula, the Korean agency said. November projects normal to

excess rainfall for the entire western half of country. Excess rains are

forecast for parts of Gujarat, western parts of which are running a deficit.

Below normal rain is indicated for the east coast (Tamil Nadu, Andhra

Pradesh and Odisha) and east-central India (parts of Andhra Pradesh,

Orissa and Chhattisgarh). (Source: Business Line)

Poor monsoon likely to dampen kharif yield in Gujarat Poor monsoon this year has taken a toll on kharif crops in Gujarat,

especially cotton and groundnut, as government officials estimate nearly

70 per cent failure in these two crops. With majority of the crop failure

reports coming from the Saurashtra and Kutch regions, farmers in the

scarcity-hit areas feel the situation is more serious than it appears. “In

Amreli district, over 55-60 per cent of groundnut crop has already failed,

while crop failure in cotton is estimated at about 30-35 per cent. There is

a threat on the remaining crop as well if there is no rainfall in the coming

days,” said an official at the Amreli district agriculture office. However,

farmers do not agree with government figures. Some farmers in the

affected regions claim the cotton crop has completely failed, while

groundnut crop failure is estimated at over 80 per cent. They said there is

an urgent need for showers to save the remaining crop. According to

agriculture experts, crop conditions in Saurashtra and Kutch are critical,

while there is some relief in the northern and southern parts of the state,

where canal irrigation is available. (Source: Business Line)

Special Margin in Yellow Soybean Meal - Domestic Contracts Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long side will be imposed on all

running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Yellow Soybean

Meal - Domestic (SYMBOL: SBMEALIDR) with effect from beginning of

day Saturday, August 25, 2012. (Source: NCDEX)

Kerala flour mills seek urgent supply of wheat for Onam Roller flour mills in Kerala have urged the Centre to release 75,000

tonnes of wheat for their State immediately under the open market sale

scheme to meet the heavy demand for wheat products during Onam

festival. In a letter to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer

Affairs K.V. Thomas, Kerala Roller Flour Millers Association President P.K.

Ahammed said the timely release of wheat to bulk users will help people

get flour, maida and sooji at an affordable price. Pointing out that the

Food Corporation of India (FCI) had released only 7,760 tonnes under the

open sale scheme to bulk users for August, he said the quantity was

meagre. “The actual requirement for Onam is 65,000-75,000 tonnes,” he

said. Ahammed said that the revised guidelines of the FCI to allow bulk

consumers to bid for up to 3,000 tonnes wheat, he said it was an

unhealthy sign as private traders could disturb the market by diverting it

for export. All the 43 mills in Kerala are facing wheat shortage, while

prices for delivery in Kerala have increased to Rs 1,950 a quintal now. The

situation is grim that mills face closure if the shortage continues. (Source: Business Line)

UP to sweeten demand for sugar decontrol Government in favour of scrapping the regulated sugar release

mechanism to benefit millers This should sound sweet for the R80,000-

crore battered Indian sugar industry. The Akhilesh Yadav-led Uttar

Pradesh government has decided to back some of the industry’s

demands on sugar decontrol, recommended by an expert panel set up by

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The state government is expected to

make its stand clear to the seven-member Rangarajan Committee on

sugar decontrol, which is headed by Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory

Council chairman C Rangarajan. Talking to FE on condition of anonymity,

a senior official said the UP government was okay with lifting four major

regulations on sale and storage. These include abolition of levy, doing

away with the regulated release mechanism, allowing export of sugar

and the compulsory storage of sugar in jute bags. It has, however, said no

to two demands – scrapping of the state’s right to fix a price for cane and

reserving cane areas. (Source: Financial Chronicles)

No penalty if committed sugar exports fall short by 5%: DGFT The government has decided not to penalise sugar exporters whose

shipments fall short by 5% of the committed quantity. “A variation of (-)

5% in weight in exports of sugar against registered contracts shall not be

treated as default for the purpose of imposition of penalty or debarment

from future registrations,” Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said.

This has been decided with the approval of Competent Authority, it said.

he country’s sugar output is expected to touch 26 mln tn in 2011-12,

higher than the annual demand of 21.5-22 mln tn. (Source: Financial Chronicles)

MP to export 1.98 lakh tonne wheat to Iran About two lakh tonne of wheat procured in Madhya Pradesh during rabi

season 2012-13 will be exported to Iran. The Food Corporation of India

has selected wheat stored in eight districts of state under the first phase,

when 1,98,368 tonne of it would be exported to Iran, an official release

said.The state government has directed concerned officers of the

districts to coordinate with FCI and warehousing agencies to ensure

proper upkeep of wheat meant for export. (Source: Agriwatch)

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 4869 1.07 -2.04 2.92 38.45

Chana- NCDEX Sept

'12 Futures

Rs/qtl 4768 -0.58 -2.19 5.79 39.50

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4680-4715 4805-4825

Chana Chana Spot continued to remain firm on account of improved demand at

lower levels and concerns over supplies of Pulses amid erratic weather

conditions globally, however, in the futures market, Chana September

contract settled 0.5% lower on fears government may take certain

measures to curb rising prices.

As per the IMD, Monsoon has recovered in the month of August, with

rains in the last 2 weeks being only 2% below LPA. This has aided sowing

in the last one week. Also this may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.

However, overall weak rainfall would have a significant impact on yield of

kharif pulses.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the Minimum

Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The

MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of Moong at

Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal and Rs.900

per quintal respectively.

Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revised

upward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the

third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 88.3 Lakh hectare area has been

planted under Kharif pulses as on 24th

August, 2012 compared to 99.78

lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. Sowing is reported lower mainly

in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that, planted area under Kharif

Pulses is down at 15.33 lakh hectares ha compared to 24.14 lakh ha same

period last year. (Dated 17th

August, 2012). Sowing which was down by

more than 55% has gained momentum after improvement in rainfall in

the last one week and is now down by 35%.

In Maharashtra, Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 7% at 18.63 lakh

hectares. While in AP it is up by 5% at 6.98 lakh hectares.

According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at

17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year

2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million

tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83

million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones.

As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that

20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad

& Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been

imported by India during April11-March 12.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely

to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch)

India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of

around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in

imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier.

Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.

Outlook

Chana futures may remain sideways as supply shortage may be over

shadowed by improved rains in the last 2 weeks. However, spot prices

may remain firm amid good demand ahead of festive season.

In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies

may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also

lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolkata) Rs/qtl 3700 -0.18 0.74 3.64 23.33

Sugar M- NCDEX

Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl 3431 -0.38 -3.02 1.81 25.17

Source: Reuters

International Prices as on Aug 23, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Sugar No 5- Liffe-

Oct'12 Futures

$/tonne 549.4 0.42 -1.81 -13.89 -29.02

Sugar No 11-ICE

Oct '12 Futures

$/tonne 435.11 -0.05 -2.97 -16.93 -33.90

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 3395-3410 3455-3475

Sugar Sugar spot and September futures remained range bound and settled

marginally lower by 0.18% and 0.38% on lack of fresh fundamentals to

trigger the prices. Mixed views on next years output is keeping market

cautious.

Reports that 25 mn tn of the cane is diverted towards fodder so far in the

drought hit districts of Maharashtra have raised concerns over sugar

output in Maharashtra. 25mn tn cane diversion would result into 3 mn tn

drop in sugar output.

However, Industry body ISMA has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new

season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago.

India may exports 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. India will likely produce

25 million tonne of sugar in 2012-13 factoring in dry spells in biggest

producer Maharashtra as well as Karnataka.

The Central Government has released additional 4 lakh ton of non-levy

sugar for the month of August, 2012. With the earlier release of 45 lakh

ton in July and 2.66 lakh ton in July the total 51.66 lakh ton non-levy

sugar will be available.

In the international markets ICE sugar closed marginally low by 0.05%

and Liffe Sugar closed up by 0.42% on short coverings. Raw sugar futures

on ICE hovered around an 11-week low on Friday, as Brazil's cane harvest

accelerated, making up for some of the time lost due to wet weather.

Domestic Production and Exports

The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop

season, up from 50.63 lakh ha on same period a year ago.

Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next year’s

output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year.

Sugar production in India — the world’s second-biggest producer —

touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011.

IMD has so far predicted normal rains in August. However, rains in the

first week of august are still 1% below average. If monsoon recover in the

month of August, then there would not be much downward revision in

the output and vice a versa.

With the opening stocks of 7 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.5-

23 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Global Sugar Updates

Brazilian cane mills produced 3 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August

thanks to dry weather. Unica in its latest report stated said that total

sugar output since the start of the crushing season is still down 12

percent from the same period a year ago.

Brazil exported 2.489 million tons of sugar, raw value, up from 1.692

million tons in June but lower from 3.06 million tons sugar exported last

year same period.

The global sugar surplus remains on target to fall in 2012/13 season,

though declines will be less than previously suggested, while adverse

weather in several producers may stop prices dropping far below recent

levels. (Source: Reuters)

According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar

surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (October-

September) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).

Outlook

Sugar futures may trade with upward bias in the intraday on concerns

over sugar output in the second largest producing state Maharashtra

amid scanty rains that would hit yield and more cane conversion towards

fodder.

Sharp gains may be capped as supplies are sufficient in the near term to

meet the festive season demand.

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 4578 -0.56 1.60 -2.12 94.07

Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12

Futures

Rs/qtl 4034 0.59 -10.54 -11.46 70.08

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 792.8 0.09 1.79 1.68 18.38

Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug

'12 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 808.6 0.14 4.01 3.35 20.89

Source: Reuters

as on Aug 23, 2012

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM YoY

Soybean- CBOT-

Sept'12 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1737.5 0.59 3.98 2.55 22.81

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

Sept '12 Futures

USc/lbs 56.24 0.21 5.89 7.66 -0.64

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Sept

'12 Contract

MYR/Tonne 3030 0.43 8.29 2.30 -10.88

CPO-MCX- Aug '12

Futures

Rs/10 kg 564 -0.04 1.64 -0.25 12.17

Source: Reuters

RM Seed as on Aug 24, 2012

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM YoY

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 4253 -1.10 -1.50 -2.50 43.67

RM Seed- NCDEX

Sept '12 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 4472 0.77 2.19 2.55 55.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX Oct contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 803-806 813-816

Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures Rs./qtl 3975-4000 4060-4090

RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4420-4445 4500-4525

CPO MCX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 562-565 572-575

Oilseeds

Soybean: Soybean futures remained firm on Tuesday on account

of supply tightness in the domestic as well as global markets till the

arrival of fresh crop in mid September.

CBOT Soybean settled higher by 0.59% on Thursday on account of

emerging demand in the international front. Markets had a strong

(monthly U.S.) crush report and another strong week of export sales

last week has provided support to soybean prices in the last few

sessions.

According to weekly crop progress report, the condition of U.S. corn

crops was unchanged last week, and soybeans improved to 31%

during last week from 30% in good to excellent condition as cooler

weather eased plant stress from the worst drought in half a century.

USDA released its monthly crop report on 10th

August wherein its

cut U.S. 2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion

bushels, from 3.05 billion in July. India's oil meal exports fell to 2.75

lakh tn in July from 2.82 lakh tn a year earlier led by a sharp drop in

the overseas sales of rapeseed meal. Soy meal exports rose to 1.68

lakh tn in July, from 1.39 tn a year ago.

In the domestic markets, as on 24th

August Oilseeds have been sown

in 164.29 lakh hectares so far, compared with 169.94 lakh hectares

same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.4 lakh hectares.

In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares

area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn

tn in 2010-11 season.

Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil & MCX CPO gained sharply taking

cues from BMD Palm oil. However, prices witness correction

towards the end due to profit booking. Malaysian crude palm oil

futures edged higher on Friday, rising 3.6 percent in a second

straight weekly gain as global oilseed supply fears and rising export

demand supported prices. As per Intertek Testing Services,

Malaysian palm oil products exports for 1-20 Aug rose 6 percent to

809,814 tons from 764,273 tons shipped during 1-20 July.

India imported 112,611 tonnes of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28

percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328

tonnes, up from 783,315 tonnes in the previous month (Source: Sea

of India).

Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March

2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the

other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below

1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to a

lull in Asian demand.

Although, Malaysia's July palm oil stocks rose 17.6 percent to

1,998,870 tn from a revised 1,699,117 tn in June, the development

of El nino pattern might hamper palm oil yield and support the

upside in the prices.

Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has lowered its earlier

output forecast by 8 percent to 23.6 million tonnes this year

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed settled 0.7% higher on

account of weak fundamentals of this oil crop. Mustard output this

season has declined significantly and deficient rains in Rajasthan

would not provide proper moisture for mustard sowing next season.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX, existing Special Cash

Margin of 5% on the Long side shall be increased to 15% on all the

running and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f beginning of

18/07/2012.

Outlook Oilseed may trade sideways with a positive bias tracking the

international prices. Sentiment remains cautious on possibility of an

El Nino returning to Southeast Asia that could hamper output in top

producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 40805 -0.33 -2.51 -4.05 24.20

Pepper- NCDEX

Sept '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 41500 -0.68 -2.68 -5.65 22.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Black Pepper NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 40800-41050 41520-41820

Black Pepper Pepper Futures extended its previous day’s losses yesterday due to lower

demand in the domestic markets at high prices. Demand for Indian

pepper in the international markets is also low due to huge price parity.

Prices also corrected due to good rainfall in Pepper growing regions in

Kerala and Karnataka in the last few days. Good supplies from Indonesia

have also pressurized the prices. Many countries are importing pepper

from Brazil and Indonesia than from India due to lower quotations. The

Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.33% and 0.68% lower on Friday.

According to the circular released on June 13th

2012 the existing Special

margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running

contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of

day Friday June 15, 2012.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,000-

8,100/tonne(C&F) while Vietnam was offering its produce at

$6,000/tonne for 500 GL. Brazil was offering its pepper at $6,150/tonne

for the B-Asta grade.

As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available

as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts.

(not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Exports According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by

47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April

2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has

become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and

Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch)

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

(MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around

1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June

2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume

and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of

Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around

13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard).

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8%

in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344

tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of

February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the

month of January 2012.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of

pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Production and Arrivals There were no arrivals of pepper in domestic market and no subsequent

offtakes reported on Friday.

Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20

lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of

24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to

latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh

tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of

year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand

production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by

5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last

year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook Pepper prices are expected to trade lower due to lower demand at

higher levels in the domestic as well as international markets. However,

low stocks in the domestic markets may support prices at lower levels.

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM YoY

Jeera Spot-

NCDEX(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 16075 0.31 -1.56 -1.02 4.22

Jeera- NCDEX Sept

'12 Futures

Rs/qtl 15530 0.03 -2.37 -0.67 4.02

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM YoY

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 5417 -0.54 -0.56 -3.07 -3.23

Turmeric- NCDEX

Sept '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 5854 -1.15 #N/A 1.53 25.25

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 15200-15325 15680-15820

Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 5730-5780 5900-5950

Jeera Jeera Futures opened on a positive note yesterday but could not

sustain the gains as rains in northern part of Gujarat maintained

pressure on prices at higher levels. Good rains will improve moisture

levels which may increase prospects of better yield next season. The

farmers are also unwilling to sell their produce at lower levels.

However, Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. The Spot

as well as the Futures settled 0.31% and 0.03% higher on Friday.

Expectations are that large export orders may be diverted to India

from the international markets due to the ongoing civil war in Syria

which is hampering supplies. There are reports that there has been an

increase in demand from Bangladesh for Indian Jeera.

Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes

and around 5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices in the

international market of Indian origin are being offered at $2,950 tn

(c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering their produce.

Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be

around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Production, Arrivals and Exports Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,000 bags, while off-takes stood

at 3,000 bags on Friday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to

be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each

bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood

at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an

increase of 6%.

Outlook Jeera prices are expected to trade sideways. Good rains in Gujarat may

pressurize the prices. However, revival of export demand at lower

levels may support prices at lower levels. In the medium to long term

(Aug-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce back as

there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there is 30%

short as compared to last year.

Turmeric Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday due to improving weather

conditions in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Also, there are

sufficient stocks with the farmers/stockists. The districts of Krishna,

Nizamabad, Guntur, Kadapa, and Chittoor received good rainfall

during the week period. Turmeric has been sown in 0.49 lakh hectares

in A.P as on 22th

August 2012. The Spot as well as the Futures settled

0.54% and 1.15% lower respectively on Friday.

The pre expiry margin on Turmeric has been increased to 5% for last 7

trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell side from

the existing 3% on daily basis for last 5 days.

Production, Arrivals and Exports Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 5,000 bags and 1,500

bags respectively on Friday.

Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical

high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-

11. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of

29% as compared to previous year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to continue to trade sideways in the

intraday due to improving weather conditions in turmeric growing

regions. However, lower sowing figures as well as reports of export

demand from Pakistan may lend support to the prices. Traders also

expect fresh export orders in the coming days.

In the medium to long term (Aug to September) prices may take cues

from the sowing figures.

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| August 25, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last

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day WoW MoM YoY

Mentha Oil- MCX

Spot (Chandausi)

Rs/qtl 1523 0.70 0.53 3.71 21.93

Mentha Oil MCX –

Aug Futures

Rs/qtl 1322 0.36 -0.46 2.01 5.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Mentha Oil MCX Sep contract

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM YoY

Potato Spot-

NCDEX (Agra)

Rs/qtl 1150 -0.28 -1.03 -2.90 176.05

Potato- NCDEX

Sept '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 1137 -0.73 -3.65 -10.11 222.71

Technical Chart – Potato NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012

Unit Support Resistance

Mentha Oil Aug Futures Rs/kg 1298-1310 1338-1355

Potato NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1105-1120 1145-1165

Potato MCX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1158-1170 1200-1212

Mentha Oil Mentha oil prices traded sideways with a positive bias yesterday due

to reducing arrivals after the peak arrivals period. However lower

demand due to ban on Gutkha and Pan Masala has restricted sharp

upside. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.7% and 0.54% higher

on Friday.

Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil has

been reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract

onwards from May 5, 2012.

For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No:

MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012.

Production, Arrivals and Exports According to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to

increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall

production of Mentha is expected to around 50,000 tonnes.

Arrivals of the fresh crop are going on in the mandis and currently

stand around 500 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs).

Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a

decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the

same period last year.

Outlook In the intraday trading session Mentha oil is expected to trade

sideways in the intraday. Buying at lower levels may emerge from

stockists anticipating good demand from pharmaceutical companies in

the coming days. However, lower demand due to ban on Gutkha and

Pan Masala may cap any sharp upside.

In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain

under pressure due to peak arrival period.

Potato In intraday potato spot as well as futures closed down by 0.28% and

0.73% respectively due to lack of buying interest in the domestic

market.

Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

has banned launch of new Tarkeshwar potato contracts.

Also From 01-08-2012 no fresh positions shall be allowed during the

Staggered Delivery period in all running contracts of Potato in MCX

and NCDEX. Only squaring off of existing positions will be allowed

during the Staggered Delivery period.

Production and Arrivals Scenario Around 200-220 lakh MT potato had been stored in the country in

different cold storages during the current season. Although 27-30% of

the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing

belts, they are much lower compared to normal 35-38% every year.

According to NHRDF, The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production

in Karnataka completed but the area sown is adversely affected due to

less and delayed rains. The sowing in hills of Himachal Pradesh,

Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are also completed. The seed

sowing in Maharashtra for Kharif is continued, which is delayed due to

delay arrival of monsoon, which is still scanty. The area for Kharif is

expected to be less or may be same with delayed planting compared

to last year, but it depends on further rains.

With reports of crop damages in Karnataka, the supplies from this

region to other states may also be affected as the overall output is

expected to decline by 70-75%. In fact, the state may have to rely on

the supplies from the north Indian markets.

Outlook Potato futures in intraday may trade sideways to down on account of

dull demand in the market.

Upcoming festive season might provide support to the prices in

Medium term.