Daily Agri Report Aug 25 - Angel Backoffice
Transcript of Daily Agri Report Aug 25 - Angel Backoffice
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Content
News & Market Highlights
Chana
Sugar
Oilseed Complex
Spices Complex
Mentha
Potato
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Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
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Market Highlights (% change) as on Aug 24, 2012
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sensex 17783 -0.38 0.71 5.37 10.17
Nifty 5387 -0.53 0.44 5.25 11.17
INR/$ 55.49 0.42 -0.23 -0.77 21.32
Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 96.15 -0.12 0.58 9.09 16.72
Comex Gold - $/oz 1669.8 0.01 3.32 5.88 -8.20
Source: Reuters
News in brief Rice, oilseeds sowing gains on monsoon’s revival Vigorous monsoon last week has provided a fillip to the last phase of
khariff crops sowing such as rice and oilseeds. Rice acreage expanded by
22 lakh hectares during the week as transplantation picked up pace in
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Among coarse
cereals, the shortfall in acreage is mainly in bajra, sorghum and ragi. The
acreage under maize is marginally short of last year’s level at 71.26 lakh
tonnes. The deficit in pulses acreage has also been largely reduced.
Acreage under tur or arhar stood at 34.78 lh for the week, against last
year’s 35.96 lh. Urad registered a higher acreage of 22.30 lh against last
year’s 20.38 lh. However, moong acreage trails by about 4 lh at 17.33
lakh ha, largely on account of poor sowing in Rajasthan, though the area
is higher in Maharashtra. The deficit in total oilseed acreage at 5 lh has
largely been offset by higher soyabean planting though sowing of
groundnut has been hit due to poor rains in Saurashtra, Gujarat.
Groundnut acreage stood at 36 lh against last year’s 41.21 lh, while
soyabean area was higher by about 4 lh at 106.77 lh. Other oilseeds such
as sunflower, sesamum and castor have registered lower acreage.
Gujarat has seen a 5 lh drop in cotton acreage, while in MP and
Karnataka, the decline is by about one lh. (Source: Business Line)
Monsoon flares up over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka The monsoon strengthened overnight on Friday in interior peninsula
bringing heavy to very heavy rain to Rayalaseema and south interior
Karnataka. Triggering of a causative system in the form of a circulation
over northwest Bay of Bengal occasioned the flare-up. The system has
since persisted there. Meanwhile, Korean forecaster APCC (Asia Pacific
Climate Centre) has September rains are likely to be normal to excess for
south peninsular India. But the rest of the country (Central India,
northwest India, east and northeast India) is likely to witness below
normal to deficient rain during the month, last of the season. Post this,
October might witness deficient rain along the west coast and west
Maharashtra. But the rains are likely to be near-normal for the rest of the
south peninsula, the Korean agency said. November projects normal to
excess rainfall for the entire western half of country. Excess rains are
forecast for parts of Gujarat, western parts of which are running a deficit.
Below normal rain is indicated for the east coast (Tamil Nadu, Andhra
Pradesh and Odisha) and east-central India (parts of Andhra Pradesh,
Orissa and Chhattisgarh). (Source: Business Line)
Poor monsoon likely to dampen kharif yield in Gujarat Poor monsoon this year has taken a toll on kharif crops in Gujarat,
especially cotton and groundnut, as government officials estimate nearly
70 per cent failure in these two crops. With majority of the crop failure
reports coming from the Saurashtra and Kutch regions, farmers in the
scarcity-hit areas feel the situation is more serious than it appears. “In
Amreli district, over 55-60 per cent of groundnut crop has already failed,
while crop failure in cotton is estimated at about 30-35 per cent. There is
a threat on the remaining crop as well if there is no rainfall in the coming
days,” said an official at the Amreli district agriculture office. However,
farmers do not agree with government figures. Some farmers in the
affected regions claim the cotton crop has completely failed, while
groundnut crop failure is estimated at over 80 per cent. They said there is
an urgent need for showers to save the remaining crop. According to
agriculture experts, crop conditions in Saurashtra and Kutch are critical,
while there is some relief in the northern and southern parts of the state,
where canal irrigation is available. (Source: Business Line)
Special Margin in Yellow Soybean Meal - Domestic Contracts Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long side will be imposed on all
running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Yellow Soybean
Meal - Domestic (SYMBOL: SBMEALIDR) with effect from beginning of
day Saturday, August 25, 2012. (Source: NCDEX)
Kerala flour mills seek urgent supply of wheat for Onam Roller flour mills in Kerala have urged the Centre to release 75,000
tonnes of wheat for their State immediately under the open market sale
scheme to meet the heavy demand for wheat products during Onam
festival. In a letter to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer
Affairs K.V. Thomas, Kerala Roller Flour Millers Association President P.K.
Ahammed said the timely release of wheat to bulk users will help people
get flour, maida and sooji at an affordable price. Pointing out that the
Food Corporation of India (FCI) had released only 7,760 tonnes under the
open sale scheme to bulk users for August, he said the quantity was
meagre. “The actual requirement for Onam is 65,000-75,000 tonnes,” he
said. Ahammed said that the revised guidelines of the FCI to allow bulk
consumers to bid for up to 3,000 tonnes wheat, he said it was an
unhealthy sign as private traders could disturb the market by diverting it
for export. All the 43 mills in Kerala are facing wheat shortage, while
prices for delivery in Kerala have increased to Rs 1,950 a quintal now. The
situation is grim that mills face closure if the shortage continues. (Source: Business Line)
UP to sweeten demand for sugar decontrol Government in favour of scrapping the regulated sugar release
mechanism to benefit millers This should sound sweet for the R80,000-
crore battered Indian sugar industry. The Akhilesh Yadav-led Uttar
Pradesh government has decided to back some of the industry’s
demands on sugar decontrol, recommended by an expert panel set up by
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The state government is expected to
make its stand clear to the seven-member Rangarajan Committee on
sugar decontrol, which is headed by Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory
Council chairman C Rangarajan. Talking to FE on condition of anonymity,
a senior official said the UP government was okay with lifting four major
regulations on sale and storage. These include abolition of levy, doing
away with the regulated release mechanism, allowing export of sugar
and the compulsory storage of sugar in jute bags. It has, however, said no
to two demands – scrapping of the state’s right to fix a price for cane and
reserving cane areas. (Source: Financial Chronicles)
No penalty if committed sugar exports fall short by 5%: DGFT The government has decided not to penalise sugar exporters whose
shipments fall short by 5% of the committed quantity. “A variation of (-)
5% in weight in exports of sugar against registered contracts shall not be
treated as default for the purpose of imposition of penalty or debarment
from future registrations,” Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said.
This has been decided with the approval of Competent Authority, it said.
he country’s sugar output is expected to touch 26 mln tn in 2011-12,
higher than the annual demand of 21.5-22 mln tn. (Source: Financial Chronicles)
MP to export 1.98 lakh tonne wheat to Iran About two lakh tonne of wheat procured in Madhya Pradesh during rabi
season 2012-13 will be exported to Iran. The Food Corporation of India
has selected wheat stored in eight districts of state under the first phase,
when 1,98,368 tonne of it would be exported to Iran, an official release
said.The state government has directed concerned officers of the
districts to coordinate with FCI and warehousing agencies to ensure
proper upkeep of wheat meant for export. (Source: Agriwatch)
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Chana Spot - NCDEX
(Delhi)
Rs/qtl 4869 1.07 -2.04 2.92 38.45
Chana- NCDEX Sept
'12 Futures
Rs/qtl 4768 -0.58 -2.19 5.79 39.50
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Chana Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4680-4715 4805-4825
Chana Chana Spot continued to remain firm on account of improved demand at
lower levels and concerns over supplies of Pulses amid erratic weather
conditions globally, however, in the futures market, Chana September
contract settled 0.5% lower on fears government may take certain
measures to curb rising prices.
As per the IMD, Monsoon has recovered in the month of August, with
rains in the last 2 weeks being only 2% below LPA. This has aided sowing
in the last one week. Also this may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.
However, overall weak rainfall would have a significant impact on yield of
kharif pulses.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the Minimum
Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The
MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of Moong at
Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal and Rs.900
per quintal respectively.
Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revised
upward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the
third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.
Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals
According to the Ministry of Agriculture 88.3 Lakh hectare area has been
planted under Kharif pulses as on 24th
August, 2012 compared to 99.78
lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. Sowing is reported lower mainly
in Rajasthan.
Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that, planted area under Kharif
Pulses is down at 15.33 lakh hectares ha compared to 24.14 lakh ha same
period last year. (Dated 17th
August, 2012). Sowing which was down by
more than 55% has gained momentum after improvement in rainfall in
the last one week and is now down by 35%.
In Maharashtra, Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 7% at 18.63 lakh
hectares. While in AP it is up by 5% at 6.98 lakh hectares.
According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at
17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year
2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million
tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83
million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones.
As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that
20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad
& Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been
imported by India during April11-March 12.
Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely
to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:
Agriwatch)
India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of
around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in
imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier.
Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.
Outlook
Chana futures may remain sideways as supply shortage may be over
shadowed by improved rains in the last 2 weeks. However, spot prices
may remain firm amid good demand ahead of festive season.
In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies
may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also
lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sugar Spot- NCDEX
(Kolkata) Rs/qtl 3700 -0.18 0.74 3.64 23.33
Sugar M- NCDEX
Sept '12 Futures Rs/qtl 3431 -0.38 -3.02 1.81 25.17
Source: Reuters
International Prices as on Aug 23, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Sugar No 5- Liffe-
Oct'12 Futures
$/tonne 549.4 0.42 -1.81 -13.89 -29.02
Sugar No 11-ICE
Oct '12 Futures
$/tonne 435.11 -0.05 -2.97 -16.93 -33.90
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 3395-3410 3455-3475
Sugar Sugar spot and September futures remained range bound and settled
marginally lower by 0.18% and 0.38% on lack of fresh fundamentals to
trigger the prices. Mixed views on next years output is keeping market
cautious.
Reports that 25 mn tn of the cane is diverted towards fodder so far in the
drought hit districts of Maharashtra have raised concerns over sugar
output in Maharashtra. 25mn tn cane diversion would result into 3 mn tn
drop in sugar output.
However, Industry body ISMA has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new
season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago.
India may exports 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. India will likely produce
25 million tonne of sugar in 2012-13 factoring in dry spells in biggest
producer Maharashtra as well as Karnataka.
The Central Government has released additional 4 lakh ton of non-levy
sugar for the month of August, 2012. With the earlier release of 45 lakh
ton in July and 2.66 lakh ton in July the total 51.66 lakh ton non-levy
sugar will be available.
In the international markets ICE sugar closed marginally low by 0.05%
and Liffe Sugar closed up by 0.42% on short coverings. Raw sugar futures
on ICE hovered around an 11-week low on Friday, as Brazil's cane harvest
accelerated, making up for some of the time lost due to wet weather.
Domestic Production and Exports
The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop
season, up from 50.63 lakh ha on same period a year ago.
Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next year’s
output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year.
Sugar production in India — the world’s second-biggest producer —
touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011.
IMD has so far predicted normal rains in August. However, rains in the
first week of august are still 1% below average. If monsoon recover in the
month of August, then there would not be much downward revision in
the output and vice a versa.
With the opening stocks of 7 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are
estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.5-
23 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.
Global Sugar Updates
Brazilian cane mills produced 3 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August
thanks to dry weather. Unica in its latest report stated said that total
sugar output since the start of the crushing season is still down 12
percent from the same period a year ago.
Brazil exported 2.489 million tons of sugar, raw value, up from 1.692
million tons in June but lower from 3.06 million tons sugar exported last
year same period.
The global sugar surplus remains on target to fall in 2012/13 season,
though declines will be less than previously suggested, while adverse
weather in several producers may stop prices dropping far below recent
levels. (Source: Reuters)
According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar
surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (October-
September) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).
Outlook
Sugar futures may trade with upward bias in the intraday on concerns
over sugar output in the second largest producing state Maharashtra
amid scanty rains that would hit yield and more cane conversion towards
fodder.
Sharp gains may be capped as supplies are sufficient in the near term to
meet the festive season demand.
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Soybean Spot- NCDEX
(Indore)
Rs/qtl 4578 -0.56 1.60 -2.12 94.07
Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12
Futures
Rs/qtl 4034 0.59 -10.54 -11.46 70.08
Ref Soy oil Spot-
NCDEX(Indore)
Rs/10 kgs 792.8 0.09 1.79 1.68 18.38
Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug
'12 Futures
Rs/10 kgs 808.6 0.14 4.01 3.35 20.89
Source: Reuters
as on Aug 23, 2012
International Prices Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Soybean- CBOT-
Sept'12 Futures
USc/
Bushel 1737.5 0.59 3.98 2.55 22.81
Soybean Oil - CBOT-
Sept '12 Futures
USc/lbs 56.24 0.21 5.89 7.66 -0.64
Source: Reuters
Crude Palm Oil as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
CPO-Bursa
Malaysia – Sept
'12 Contract
MYR/Tonne 3030 0.43 8.29 2.30 -10.88
CPO-MCX- Aug '12
Futures
Rs/10 kg 564 -0.04 1.64 -0.25 12.17
Source: Reuters
RM Seed as on Aug 24, 2012
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
RM Seed Spot-
NCDEX (Jaipur)
Rs/100 kgs 4253 -1.10 -1.50 -2.50 43.67
RM Seed- NCDEX
Sept '12 Futures
Rs/100 kgs 4472 0.77 2.19 2.55 55.44
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX Oct contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 803-806 813-816
Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures Rs./qtl 3975-4000 4060-4090
RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4420-4445 4500-4525
CPO MCX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 562-565 572-575
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures remained firm on Tuesday on account
of supply tightness in the domestic as well as global markets till the
arrival of fresh crop in mid September.
CBOT Soybean settled higher by 0.59% on Thursday on account of
emerging demand in the international front. Markets had a strong
(monthly U.S.) crush report and another strong week of export sales
last week has provided support to soybean prices in the last few
sessions.
According to weekly crop progress report, the condition of U.S. corn
crops was unchanged last week, and soybeans improved to 31%
during last week from 30% in good to excellent condition as cooler
weather eased plant stress from the worst drought in half a century.
USDA released its monthly crop report on 10th
August wherein its
cut U.S. 2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion
bushels, from 3.05 billion in July. India's oil meal exports fell to 2.75
lakh tn in July from 2.82 lakh tn a year earlier led by a sharp drop in
the overseas sales of rapeseed meal. Soy meal exports rose to 1.68
lakh tn in July, from 1.39 tn a year ago.
In the domestic markets, as on 24th
August Oilseeds have been sown
in 164.29 lakh hectares so far, compared with 169.94 lakh hectares
same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.4 lakh hectares.
In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares
area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn
tn in 2010-11 season.
Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil & MCX CPO gained sharply taking
cues from BMD Palm oil. However, prices witness correction
towards the end due to profit booking. Malaysian crude palm oil
futures edged higher on Friday, rising 3.6 percent in a second
straight weekly gain as global oilseed supply fears and rising export
demand supported prices. As per Intertek Testing Services,
Malaysian palm oil products exports for 1-20 Aug rose 6 percent to
809,814 tons from 764,273 tons shipped during 1-20 July.
India imported 112,611 tonnes of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28
percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328
tonnes, up from 783,315 tonnes in the previous month (Source: Sea
of India).
Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March
2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the
other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below
1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to a
lull in Asian demand.
Although, Malaysia's July palm oil stocks rose 17.6 percent to
1,998,870 tn from a revised 1,699,117 tn in June, the development
of El nino pattern might hamper palm oil yield and support the
upside in the prices.
Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has lowered its earlier
output forecast by 8 percent to 23.6 million tonnes this year
Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed settled 0.7% higher on
account of weak fundamentals of this oil crop. Mustard output this
season has declined significantly and deficient rains in Rajasthan
would not provide proper moisture for mustard sowing next season.
According to a circular issued by NCDEX, existing Special Cash
Margin of 5% on the Long side shall be increased to 15% on all the
running and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f beginning of
18/07/2012.
Outlook Oilseed may trade sideways with a positive bias tracking the
international prices. Sentiment remains cautious on possibility of an
El Nino returning to Southeast Asia that could hamper output in top
producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
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Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Pepper Spot-
NCDEX (Kochi)
Rs/qtl 40805 -0.33 -2.51 -4.05 24.20
Pepper- NCDEX
Sept '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 41500 -0.68 -2.68 -5.65 22.29
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Black Pepper NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 40800-41050 41520-41820
Black Pepper Pepper Futures extended its previous day’s losses yesterday due to lower
demand in the domestic markets at high prices. Demand for Indian
pepper in the international markets is also low due to huge price parity.
Prices also corrected due to good rainfall in Pepper growing regions in
Kerala and Karnataka in the last few days. Good supplies from Indonesia
have also pressurized the prices. Many countries are importing pepper
from Brazil and Indonesia than from India due to lower quotations. The
Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.33% and 0.68% lower on Friday.
According to the circular released on June 13th
2012 the existing Special
margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running
contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of
day Friday June 15, 2012.
Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,000-
8,100/tonne(C&F) while Vietnam was offering its produce at
$6,000/tonne for 500 GL. Brazil was offering its pepper at $6,150/tonne
for the B-Asta grade.
As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available
as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts.
(not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).
Exports According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by
47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April
2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has
become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and
Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch)
According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
(MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around
1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June
2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume
and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of
Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around
13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard).
Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8%
in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344
tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of
February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the
month of January 2012.
Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared
to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599
tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of
pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.
Production and Arrivals There were no arrivals of pepper in domestic market and no subsequent
offtakes reported on Friday.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20
lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of
24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to
latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh
tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of
year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by
3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to
2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand
production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by
5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last
year. Production is lowest in a decade.
Outlook Pepper prices are expected to trade lower due to lower demand at
higher levels in the domestic as well as international markets. However,
low stocks in the domestic markets may support prices at lower levels.
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Jeera Spot-
NCDEX(Unjha)
Rs/qtl 16075 0.31 -1.56 -1.02 4.22
Jeera- NCDEX Sept
'12 Futures
Rs/qtl 15530 0.03 -2.37 -0.67 4.02
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Turmeric Spot-
NCDEX (N'zmbad)
Rs/qtl 5417 -0.54 -0.56 -3.07 -3.23
Turmeric- NCDEX
Sept '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 5854 -1.15 #N/A 1.53 25.25
Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Unit Support Resistance
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 15200-15325 15680-15820
Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 5730-5780 5900-5950
Jeera Jeera Futures opened on a positive note yesterday but could not
sustain the gains as rains in northern part of Gujarat maintained
pressure on prices at higher levels. Good rains will improve moisture
levels which may increase prospects of better yield next season. The
farmers are also unwilling to sell their produce at lower levels.
However, Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. The Spot
as well as the Futures settled 0.31% and 0.03% higher on Friday.
Expectations are that large export orders may be diverted to India
from the international markets due to the ongoing civil war in Syria
which is hampering supplies. There are reports that there has been an
increase in demand from Bangladesh for Indian Jeera.
Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes
and around 5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices in the
international market of Indian origin are being offered at $2,950 tn
(c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering their produce.
Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be
around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Production, Arrivals and Exports Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,000 bags, while off-takes stood
at 3,000 bags on Friday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to
be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each
bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood
at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an
increase of 6%.
Outlook Jeera prices are expected to trade sideways. Good rains in Gujarat may
pressurize the prices. However, revival of export demand at lower
levels may support prices at lower levels. In the medium to long term
(Aug-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce back as
there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there is 30%
short as compared to last year.
Turmeric Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday due to improving weather
conditions in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Also, there are
sufficient stocks with the farmers/stockists. The districts of Krishna,
Nizamabad, Guntur, Kadapa, and Chittoor received good rainfall
during the week period. Turmeric has been sown in 0.49 lakh hectares
in A.P as on 22th
August 2012. The Spot as well as the Futures settled
0.54% and 1.15% lower respectively on Friday.
The pre expiry margin on Turmeric has been increased to 5% for last 7
trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell side from
the existing 3% on daily basis for last 5 days.
Production, Arrivals and Exports Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 5,000 bags and 1,500
bags respectively on Friday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical
high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-
11. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of
29% as compared to previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012
increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.
Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to continue to trade sideways in the
intraday due to improving weather conditions in turmeric growing
regions. However, lower sowing figures as well as reports of export
demand from Pakistan may lend support to the prices. Traders also
expect fresh export orders in the coming days.
In the medium to long term (Aug to September) prices may take cues
from the sowing figures.
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| August 25, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Mentha Oil- MCX
Spot (Chandausi)
Rs/qtl 1523 0.70 0.53 3.71 21.93
Mentha Oil MCX –
Aug Futures
Rs/qtl 1322 0.36 -0.46 2.01 5.84
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Mentha Oil MCX Sep contract
Source: Telequote
Market Highlights as on Aug 24, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM YoY
Potato Spot-
NCDEX (Agra)
Rs/qtl 1150 -0.28 -1.03 -2.90 176.05
Potato- NCDEX
Sept '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 1137 -0.73 -3.65 -10.11 222.71
Technical Chart – Potato NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 25, 2012
Unit Support Resistance
Mentha Oil Aug Futures Rs/kg 1298-1310 1338-1355
Potato NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1105-1120 1145-1165
Potato MCX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1158-1170 1200-1212
Mentha Oil Mentha oil prices traded sideways with a positive bias yesterday due
to reducing arrivals after the peak arrivals period. However lower
demand due to ban on Gutkha and Pan Masala has restricted sharp
upside. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.7% and 0.54% higher
on Friday.
Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil has
been reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract
onwards from May 5, 2012.
For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No:
MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012.
Production, Arrivals and Exports According to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to
increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall
production of Mentha is expected to around 50,000 tonnes.
Arrivals of the fresh crop are going on in the mandis and currently
stand around 500 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs).
Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a
decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the
same period last year.
Outlook In the intraday trading session Mentha oil is expected to trade
sideways in the intraday. Buying at lower levels may emerge from
stockists anticipating good demand from pharmaceutical companies in
the coming days. However, lower demand due to ban on Gutkha and
Pan Masala may cap any sharp upside.
In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain
under pressure due to peak arrival period.
Potato In intraday potato spot as well as futures closed down by 0.28% and
0.73% respectively due to lack of buying interest in the domestic
market.
Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC)
has banned launch of new Tarkeshwar potato contracts.
Also From 01-08-2012 no fresh positions shall be allowed during the
Staggered Delivery period in all running contracts of Potato in MCX
and NCDEX. Only squaring off of existing positions will be allowed
during the Staggered Delivery period.
Production and Arrivals Scenario Around 200-220 lakh MT potato had been stored in the country in
different cold storages during the current season. Although 27-30% of
the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing
belts, they are much lower compared to normal 35-38% every year.
According to NHRDF, The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production
in Karnataka completed but the area sown is adversely affected due to
less and delayed rains. The sowing in hills of Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are also completed. The seed
sowing in Maharashtra for Kharif is continued, which is delayed due to
delay arrival of monsoon, which is still scanty. The area for Kharif is
expected to be less or may be same with delayed planting compared
to last year, but it depends on further rains.
With reports of crop damages in Karnataka, the supplies from this
region to other states may also be affected as the overall output is
expected to decline by 70-75%. In fact, the state may have to rely on
the supplies from the north Indian markets.
Outlook Potato futures in intraday may trade sideways to down on account of
dull demand in the market.
Upcoming festive season might provide support to the prices in
Medium term.