Great South Bay Great South Bay Restoration ToolsRestoration Tools

Principal InvestigatorsPrincipal Investigators: R. Cerrato, J. Collier, : R. Cerrato, J. Collier, C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. Lopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. WilsonLopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. Wilson

Graduate StudentsGraduate Students: J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. : J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Jiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. WallJiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. Wall

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook UniversityStony Brook, NY

Hard Clams

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tho

usan

ds o

f Bus

hels

Recent changes in Great Recent changes in Great South BaySouth Bay

Winter flounder

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1938 1983 2007

Ab

un

dan

ce

Eelgrass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1984 Today

gram

s pe

r sq

uare

met

er

Value of commercial landings

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Suffolk County Population(US census)

Harvesting of sublegal Harvesting of sublegal sizes sizes

Habitat change/lossHabitat change/loss Changes in inlet Changes in inlet

configuration configuration (shoaling/dredging)(shoaling/dredging)

Decline in water qualityDecline in water quality Natural cyclesNatural cycles Brown tideBrown tide Climate changeClimate change Disease/parasitesDisease/parasites Reproductive failureReproductive failure

Predation (ctenophores, crabs, whelks)

Diversion of freshwater by treatment plant

Shift in plankton structure

Loss of feedback effects Nutrient cycle changes Removal from closed

areas Groundwater changes PollutionPollution

■ Overharvesting

Many Possible Causes for Many Possible Causes for DeclinesDeclines

Policy options for Policy options for restoring GSBrestoring GSB

Reduce nutrient input Reduce nutrient input require all south shore homes to be on sewersrequire all south shore homes to be on sewers regulate boat dischargeregulate boat discharge regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading)regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading)

Add clams to the system, create spawner sanctuariesAdd clams to the system, create spawner sanctuaries Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish / Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish /

shellfishshellfish Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Plant seagrassPlant seagrass Remove invasive speciesRemove invasive species Promote harvest of blue crabs / whelksPromote harvest of blue crabs / whelks

Which policy options are most likely to succeed?

Too many plausible options….

Which of these will be the most cost effective?

e.g. Seeding of clams v. Harvest of predators

What would be the most efficient implementation?

e.g. Where should clams be deposited? How many do we need?

Project GoalProject Goal Provide managers and policy makers Provide managers and policy makers

a tool for evaluating the likely a tool for evaluating the likely success of various management success of various management strategies. strategies.

TasksTasks construct a model of GSB which construct a model of GSB which

represents all of the major represents all of the major components of the ecosystem. components of the ecosystem.

RoadmapRoadmap Compile all existing data on GSB Compile all existing data on GSB Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps

in knowledgein knowledge Create software to model GSB ecosystem Create software to model GSB ecosystem

and user interfaceand user interface

Field studies to validate the model.Field studies to validate the model.

Physical model (temperature, salinity, light, flow)

Food web model(nutrients, plankton, seagrass, crabs, clams, fish)Management actions

Westward Winds

Physical model predicts salinity, temperature, and flow

Salinity

Flow

Phytoplankton

Seagrass

Zooplankton

Clams

Crabs

Fish

Deposit feeders

Sediment

Nutrients

Sediment

Input

Predator-prey interaction

Indirect interaction

Food Web Model ComponentsFood Web Model Components

Additional BenefitsAdditional Benefits

Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., disease outbreak, storm created disease outbreak, storm created breach)breach)

Forecast impact of future Forecast impact of future developmentdevelopment

SummarySummary There are many possible policy options for There are many possible policy options for

restoring GSBrestoring GSB Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential

for success of various restoration strategiesfor success of various restoration strategies Model construction underwayModel construction underway Preliminary software expected this summerPreliminary software expected this summer

Future work will include economic evaluation of Future work will include economic evaluation of costscosts