ECR Research
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FACTS & FIGURES » Founded in 1979 » +3500 readers globally » Following 100+ leading sources Never in history have financial markets and political developments been more inter-related and more complex than today. A truly global perspective is needed to understand trends and developments in stock, bond, currency and commodity markets. How to organise this? Our team invests over 200 hours every week comparing opinions, weighing arguments and discussing scenarios. All based on more than 100 sources of leading research and over 200 years of combined experience within our team. Our weekly reports provide you with a time-efficient and well-balanced view on all relevant market developments, including concrete market predictions. Discover us! We are already valued by thousands of professionals just like you. UNBIASED ECR is privately owned and strictly independent. ECR Research has no investment or trading activities. Our sole aim is to provide you with research and advice to best suit your needs. TIME SAVING No nonsense or jargon, but a crystal clear analysis of all that matters in the global financial markets enabling you to spend more time with your clients and on other core activities. VALUE FOR MONEY ECR offers a high quality service at just a fraction of the cost of alternative, in-house and external, research solutions. We guarantee that you will find a subscription package that suits you! the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers About ECR Research
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FACTS & FIGURES
» Founded in 1979 » +3500 readers globally » Following 100+ leading
sources
Never in history have financial markets and political developments been more inter-related and more complex than today. A truly global perspective is needed to understand trends and developments in stock, bond, currency and commodity markets. How to organise this? Our team invests over 200 hours every week comparing opinions, weighing arguments and discussing scenarios. All based on more than 100 sources of leading research and over 200 years of combined experience within our team. Our weekly reports provide you with a time-efficient and well-balanced view on all relevant market developments, including concrete market predictions.
Discover us! We are already valued by thousands of professionals just like you.
UNBIASED
ECR is privately owned and strictly independent. ECR Research has no investment or trading activities. Our sole aim is to provide you with research and advice to best suit your needs.
TIME SAVING
No nonsense or jargon, but a crystal clear analysis of all that matters in the global financial markets enabling you to spend more time with your clients and on other core activities.
VALUE FOR MONEY
ECR offers a high quality service at just a fraction of the cost of alternative, in-house and external, research solutions. We guarantee that you will find a subscription package that suits you!
the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers
About ECR Research
FACTS & FIGURES
» 5 research categories » 19 publications » Available in English,
German & Dutch
MACRO & POLITICAL
» Global Macro Economic Outlook » Global Political Risk Monitor
FX & RATES
» EUR/USD » GBP & UK interest rates » CHF & Swiss interest rates » JPY & Japanese interest rates » EMU interest rates » US interest rates
ASSET ALLOCATION
» Investment Outlook » Consensus & Fund Flows » Stocks, Bonds & Commodities » Emerging Markets » Markets to Watch
FUND SELECTION
» Fund selection model
MORNING BRIEFINGS
» Market Update & Calendar » Market Snapshot » Markets in Charts » Correlation Charts » Stock Index Screener
Dear Mr. John Jones, welcome to your
ECR Research Platform
Investment Outlook Asset Allocation | by ECR Research BV | www.ecrresearch.com
the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers
Investment outlook update August 2016 Monday, 25 July 2016 | Contents
1. Asset market outlook 3
2. Implications for asset allocation 4
Equities 4
Bonds 6
Gold and commodities 6
3. Chart-technical developments 7
US 7
EMU 9
Japan 9
UK 9
Bonds 10
Commodities 12
Investment Outlook
This quarterly, with monthly updates,
report answers the question “How would ECR invest?”. Our approach is fundamental and chart-technical
combined with valuation metrics. It is
a bridge between our mid-term
macro views and your strategic and
tactical asset allocation decisions.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?
Edward Markus, Maarten Spek
Henk-Jan Pijper, Andy Langenkamp
+31 (0)30 232 8000
INDEPENDENCE
With over 35 years experience ECR
has become one of Europe's leading
providers of independent research
on global financial markets, political
developments and asset allocation.
EUR/USD FX & Interest Rates | by ECR Research BV | www.ecrresearch.com
the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers
ECB's monetary easing may be counterproductive Tuesday, 26 July 2016 | Summary
> The recently strong US economic and labour market data leads analysts to expect that the Fed will this week hint at a rate hike later in 2016.
> Many think the ECB will ease its policy in September on low inflation expectations and the adverse effects of Brexit for the European economy.
> Without fiscal impulses, the ECB's monetary easing could be counterproductive. The problem is that the decision to apply extra fiscal stimulus will hinge on looming crises and growing Eurozone tensions.
> Disappointment about the actual degree to which growth is boosted around the world could create a crisis atmosphere.
> While EUR/USD exceeds 1.08 it could (temporarily) rally to 1.12 and maybe rise to 1.15.
> The pair can slide to parity or lower in the coming months on improving US economic performance as well as rising Eurozone tensions.
FX & Interest Rates
In our weekly FX and interest rate reports we discuss the most likely mid-term scenario's, for the US dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound and Swiss Franc. This series is designed for treasury and financial professionals responsible for managing currency risks and hedging strategies.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?
Edward Markus Maarten Spek +31 (0)30 232 8000 [email protected]
INDEPENDENCE
With over 35 years experience ECR has become one of Europe's leading providers of independent research on global financial markets, political developments and asset allocation.
Global Macro Economic Outlook Macro & Political| by ECR Research BV | www.ecrresearch.com
the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers
Are higher share prices sustainable? Thursday, 21 July 2016 | Summary
> Share prices have increased significantly lately. The question is whether this is because investors consider interest on bonds too low, or because they anticipate better economic times. The answer to this question is of great importance for what will happen next with interest rates and currencies.
> When answering this question, it should be taken into account that at the root of the current problems is a very slow increase in productivity. As a result, incomes cannot rise meaningfully, a divide will emerge in society and the maximum level at which economies can grow in the long run is very low.
> Measures to encourage productivity to grow more quickly are very unpopular. This is why the authorities keep resorting to monetary and/or fiscal stimulus, which may be compared to giving a drug addict more drugs.
> As monetary stimulus is fast approaching its limits, we expect an increasing urge to apply fiscal stimulus. This way, it is also possible to arrive at a better income distribution.
> However, for the time being we only expect more fiscal stimulus in Japan. In the US and Europe, this will still be some time in coming.
Global Macro Economic Outlook
Offers a clear insight into how the global economies interrelate and affect each other. We outline how monetary policies of major central banks affect the various financial markets and offer concrete mid-term predictions.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?
Edward Markus Maarten Spek +31 (0)30 232 8000 [email protected]
INDEPENDENCE
With over 35 years experience ECR has become one of Europe's leading providers of independent research on global financial markets, political developments and asset allocation.
Global Political Risk Monitor Macro & Political| by ECR Research BV | www.ecrresearch.com
the clever research solution for time-pressed decision makers
Political investment guide for turbulent times Friday, 22 July 2016
Many investors detest uncertainty. For good reason; change breeds unpredictability. Politics is a source of great insecurity in this day and age. Increasingly so, it would seem. Virtually nobody foresaw a year ago that the 2016 Republican US presidential candidate would go by the name of Donald Trump. When Brexit happened in June the opinion polls were widely off the mark regarding the outcome of the referendum. There is also the uncomfortable fact that whereas further terrorist attacks in the West are almost a given, nobody can say when, where, or how the next one will take place. The coup attempt in Turkey is another development that many analysts did not anticipate. Political uncertainty will not disappear in the next few months. Parliamentary elections in Russia are due in September, for example, and while it is easy to predict who will crow victory this does not alter the fact that the Russian economy is in deep trouble. It is no wonder that President Putin fears widespread protests.
October is Election Month The two European referendums in October will reveal how fertile the populist breeding ground still is. The Hungarians are asked to vote on the admission of refugees (as 'dictated' by Brussels) on 2 October. There will be a rerun of the Austrian presidential elections on the same day (the votes were not counted according to the rules the first time round). In other words, the right-wing populist candidate Hofer will get a second chance after losing marginally in May. Also on the agenda in October is the Italian referendum on political reform. PM Renzi has thrown in his political lot with the outcome. Around that time, another spectacle will be unfolding – a tough and dirty election battle between Clinton and Trump.
Global Political Risk Monitor
Politics play an increasing role in shaping the world's economies. Global trends, shifting allegiances and elections make the impacts increasingly complex and time consuming to understand. We unravel this complex web for you.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?
Andy Langenkamp +31 (0)30 232 8000 [email protected]
INDEPENDENCE
With over 35 years experience ECR has become one of Europe's leading providers of independent research on global financial markets, political developments and asset allocation.
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FACTS & FIGURES
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RON MARKUSFX & Interest Rates
MAARTEN SPEKSenior Market Analyst
ROBEL ASMEROMFinancial Markets Analyst
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