Demographic Transition Model

A Model by Warren Thompson

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.www.prb.org

The Classic Stages

1929 by Warren Thompson

Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Stage 5

http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

http://www.ag.unr.edu/Gustin/ERS210/210PopulationNotes.pdf

http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

http://www.geographyalltheway.com/ib_geography/ib_population/ib_demographic_transition_model.htm

Statistics for England

Year CBR CDR Population

1750 40 40 6

1800 34 20 9

1850 34 22 18

1900 28 16 32

1950 16 12 44

2000 11 10 60

Statistics for Sweden

Year CBR CDR

1750 36 27

1800 29 31

1850 32 20

1900 27 17

1950 17 10

2000 10 11

Statistics for Mexico

Year CBR CDR

1900 47 33

1920 45 28

1940 45 22

1960 45 12

1980 35 12

2000 22 5

Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico

Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

SwedenBirth Rate

Death Rate

MexicoBirth Rate

Death Rate

Births/Deaths per 1,000

Lesson Plan: The Demographic Transition, Activity One

A

DC

B

7. Stage 1? 2? 3? 4?

1. One important feature of the world’s population with the most significant future implications is that

a. the less developed countries have the highest combined crude death rate

b. the natural increase rate is larger every year

c. the most rapid growth is occurring in the less developed countries

d. there are fewer people in the world now than at the peak in the middle of the 20th century

2. Replacement rate, the number of births needed to keep a population at a stable level without immigration, requires a total fertility of

a. 10. b. 2.1. c. 3.5. d. 5.

3. Which of the following countries is most likely to be showing the lowest natural increase rate?

a. Afghanistan b. United Statesc. Japan d. Chile

4. Countries with aging populations attempt to stimulate economic growth to lessen the effect of rising medical and retirement costs by

a. cutting social security.

b. encouraging increased birth rate.

c. promoting immigration.

d. promoting emigration of the elderly.

5. Demographically, Great Britain experienced a ___________________ in the period from the late 1800s through WWII.

a. population decline

b. rising death rate

c. population explosion

d. rapid birth rate decline

7. The medical revolution has been characterized by

a. development of new inventions

b. diffusion of medical practices

c. increased agricultural productivity

d. invention of new medicines

8. The average number of births women bear in their lifetime is

a. total fertility rate b. crude birth rate

c. natural increase rate d. crude death rate

9. A decline in a country’s crude birth rate would result in an increase in the country’s

a. doubling time b. natural increase rate

c. total fertility rate d. life expectancy rate

10. The low rate of contraceptive use in Africa reflects the region’s

a. low status of women

b. improving education of women

c. rapid diffusion

d. A and B

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• Why is population growing so fast?

• Which areas are growing fastest?

• What effects has this growth had on social and ecological systems?