Demographic Transition Model 10 /8
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Transcript of Demographic Transition Model 10 /8
![Page 1: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Demographic Transition Model10/8Bell-ringer:
What information is this graph displaying?
Give one fact that you can determine from this graph?
![Page 2: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
(Some mention a new 5th stage)
![Page 3: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”
High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)
NIR = 0 or very slow rate
No country or world region still in Stage One. STAGE ONE – Agrarian society, lots of deaths from famine and disease.
![Page 4: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Stage 2: “Early Industrial”
High birth rates (over 30) but death rates begin to decline (to about 20)
NIRs increase sharply (pop. explosion); growth rate increases throughout Stage Two
Growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths
MDCs = starts early 1800sLDCs = starts after 1950s
![Page 5: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Why move from Stage 1 to Stage 2?
• REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would more people live longer (lower CDR), NOT why would more people be born (higher CBR)?
![Page 6: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Stage 3: “Later Industrial”
Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) and Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less)
Pop. Growth occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate
MDCs = starts in late 1800sLDCs = starts after 1980s*
* Or hasn’t started yet
![Page 7: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Why move from Stage 2 to Stage 3?
• REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would the birth rate drop rapidly once the CDR has been reduced?
• Why would this happen at different times in MDC and LDC?
![Page 8: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”
Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)
Population growth very low or zero (ZPG – zero population growth)
MDCs = starts after 1970sLDCs = hasn’t started yet
Much of Europe now or soon in population declineas birth rates drop far below replacement level
![Page 9: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Population Pyramids: 5 things you notice. What does this image show you?
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Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice. What is DIFFERENT about this pyramid?
![Page 11: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Vertical axis: Age groups
Horizontal Axis:Percentage/number people
Elderly Dependents
Working populations
Young dependents
![Page 12: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• Dependency Ratio – Ratio of dependents to the working population
• SO WHAT?
![Page 13: Demographic Transition Model 10 /8](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022031915/56812aa6550346895d8e67cb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)