Increasing for a Increasing for a reason…reason…

The demographic The demographic transition modeltransition model

To understand the demographic transition To understand the demographic transition model, you need to know the following model, you need to know the following

terms…terms… Birth rateBirth rate – The annual number of births – The annual number of births

per 1,000 people.per 1,000 people.

Death rateDeath rate – The annual number of – The annual number of deaths per 1,000 people.deaths per 1,000 people.

Natural increaseNatural increase – The annual rate of – The annual rate of population change as calculated by population change as calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.rate.

For example…For example… The birth rate of the United States is 14.14 The birth rate of the United States is 14.14

births per 1,000 population, while the births per 1,000 population, while the death rate is 8.25 deaths per 1,000 death rate is 8.25 deaths per 1,000 population. Therefore the natural increase population. Therefore the natural increase would be:would be:

14.14 – 8.25 = 5.89 per 1,000 or .00589 14.14 – 8.25 = 5.89 per 1,000 or .00589 (.59%)(.59%)

Find the natural increase of your country Find the natural increase of your country using the above model.using the above model.

The demographic transition modelThe demographic transition model

Geography of natural Geography of natural increase doesnincrease doesn’’t t ““just just happen.happen.”” Instead Instead there are a series of there are a series of generalizations we generalizations we can make based on can make based on the experiences of the experiences of many countries. By many countries. By considering the considering the relationships between relationships between birth rates and death birth rates and death rates over time, we rates over time, we can come up with four can come up with four stages:stages:

Stage 1: High StationaryStage 1: High Stationary

Stage 2: Early ExpandingStage 2: Early Expanding

Stage 3: Late ExpandingStage 3: Late Expanding

Stage 4: Low StationaryStage 4: Low Stationary

This model is important because…This model is important because…

The population curve The population curve throughout history makes throughout history makes sense!sense!

Different countries of the Different countries of the world are at different world are at different stages.stages.

Several countries have Several countries have completed the transition completed the transition and demographers use and demographers use their experiences to their experiences to predict global population predict global population growth.growth.

Stage 1: High StationaryStage 1: High Stationary Birth rates and death rates are high and about Birth rates and death rates are high and about

equal. Therefore, growth is equal. Therefore, growth is stationarystationary. . Death rates were high – poor sanitation, tainted Death rates were high – poor sanitation, tainted

water, lack of education, absence of medication water, lack of education, absence of medication and vaccines. and vaccines.

Infant mortality was high. Even in Infant mortality was high. Even in ““advanced advanced societiessocieties”” about 25% of children died before their about 25% of children died before their 11stst birthday. birthday.

Average life expectancy was low – While the life Average life expectancy was low – While the life expectancy in France is now 78 years, in the late expectancy in France is now 78 years, in the late 16001600’’s, life expectancy was 35 years.s, life expectancy was 35 years.

How would this affect how people lived their How would this affect how people lived their lives?lives?

Societies often responded to high Societies often responded to high death rates with high birth rates… death rates with high birth rates…

Most people farmed…more Most people farmed…more kids meant more workers.kids meant more workers.

People didnPeople didn’’t have t have pensions…more kids pensions…more kids meant someone to look meant someone to look after you when you were after you when you were older.older.

Shorter life expectancy Shorter life expectancy meant people married meant people married young – often in their mid-young – often in their mid-teens (which means that teens (which means that many of you would be many of you would be married now!). married now!).

Stage 1: High StationaryStage 1: High Stationary

Virtually no country currently is in Virtually no country currently is in this stage. However, it is an this stage. However, it is an important base for us to understand important base for us to understand the other phases which are very real the other phases which are very real to us today.to us today.

Stage 2: Early ExpandingStage 2: Early Expanding

Birth rates exceed death rates by a Birth rates exceed death rates by a widening margin – population widening margin – population increases dramatically.increases dramatically.

Can be confusing, as both birth and Can be confusing, as both birth and death rates are often decreasing. death rates are often decreasing. However, the gap between the two is However, the gap between the two is widening as the death rate is widening as the death rate is declining more.declining more.

Why?Why? Widespread improvements in water and Widespread improvements in water and

sanitation.sanitation. Medicines and vaccines are becoming Medicines and vaccines are becoming

widely available.widely available. Infant mortality is dropping and Life Infant mortality is dropping and Life

Expectancy is rising (moreExpectancy is rising (morepeople reaching the child people reaching the child bearing years).bearing years).

Death rates are dropping Death rates are dropping faster than birth rates…faster than birth rates…population grows!population grows!

Stage 2: Early ExpandingStage 2: Early Expanding

Most countries with a Most countries with a ““highhigh”” rate of rate of natural increase are in the early natural increase are in the early expanding stage.expanding stage.

Stage 3: Late ExpandingStage 3: Late Expanding Birth rates and death rates continue to go down – Birth rates and death rates continue to go down –

gap between the two is narrowing.gap between the two is narrowing. Improvements continue to be made in public Improvements continue to be made in public

health (lower infant mortality rates and longer life health (lower infant mortality rates and longer life spans – death rate continues to decline).spans – death rate continues to decline).

As the economy develops, machines take over As the economy develops, machines take over work that used to be done manually. Therefore, work that used to be done manually. Therefore, the need to have kids strictly to be workers goes the need to have kids strictly to be workers goes down.down.

More people have jobs with pensions…More people have jobs with pensions…the need to have kids to support you the need to have kids to support you later goes down.later goes down.

Increasing numbers of women enter Increasing numbers of women enter work force – delays marriage and work force – delays marriage and children.children.

Stage 3: Late ExpandingStage 3: Late Expanding

Most countries with Most countries with ““mediummedium”” natural natural increase belong to this group. As the increase belong to this group. As the modern economy encompasses more modern economy encompasses more and more families, the rate of and more families, the rate of population increase levels off.population increase levels off.

Stage 4: Low StationaryStage 4: Low Stationary In the final stage, both birth and death rates are In the final stage, both birth and death rates are

low. Thus, population growth is again stationary.low. Thus, population growth is again stationary. Increases and advances in health care results in Increases and advances in health care results in

lower death rate and high life expectancy. lower death rate and high life expectancy. The economy is overwhelmingly industrial or The economy is overwhelmingly industrial or

post-industrial – there is a diminished need for post-industrial – there is a diminished need for manual labor.manual labor.

Widespread pension and retirement systems.Widespread pension and retirement systems. More woman go into workforce delaying or opting More woman go into workforce delaying or opting

out of motherhood. This lowers the birthrate.out of motherhood. This lowers the birthrate. Families factor in the cost of raising and Families factor in the cost of raising and

educating children – opt for smaller families.educating children – opt for smaller families.

Stage 4:Low StationaryStage 4:Low Stationary

Most countries with a Most countries with a ““lowlow”” or or ““negativenegative”” natural increase levels fall natural increase levels fall into this category.into this category.

Making Connections…Making Connections… The wealthiest The wealthiest

countries tend to be countries tend to be found in North found in North America, Western America, Western Europe, and a few Europe, and a few additional areas (i.e. additional areas (i.e. Japan and Australia). Japan and Australia). At the other extreme At the other extreme are countries in Asia are countries in Asia and Africa. This and Africa. This suggests an inverse suggests an inverse relationship between relationship between natural increase and natural increase and wealth.wealth.

Which category does your country Which category does your country fall into?fall into?