“Demographic Transition Model: Evidence from West Bengal State · “Demographic Transition...

SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621

Ghosh ISSN: 2278-9111

“Demographic Transition Model: Evidence from West Bengal State”

Subrata Ghosh*

Abstract:

Demographic transition is now becoming universal phenomenon as immigration from less

developed to developed countries creating worldwide population explosion. As modernisation

proceeds, population growth rate changes from high birth and death rates to low birth and death

rates. Most of this dramatic transition has occurred over the last 150 years. This article

summarizes the demographic dynamics of West Bengal from the beginning of 20th century. The

paper aims at checking at which stage of transition model West Bengal is now and where it is

approaching. The paper contains information from several sources for discussing the recent

demographic progress in the state and covers a variety of demographic aspects such as

population, fertility, mortality, gender issues, projections of population, vital rates etc. based on

data from Census of India, SRS,NSSO and CSO. This paper can provide an important framework

for the advocacy and operationalisation of state population policies. There is need to prioritize

the concern and focus on the policy option at the state level.

Key words: Demographic Transition, Population, West Bengal

*Subrata Ghosh, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, Siliguri Institute

of Technology, India, email : [email protected], M : +91(0) 9832054174.



Size and Growth of Population Growth Trend: An Introduction

As far as the size of population is concerned, West Bengal ranks fourth in the country just after

the states Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar. Besides being the fourth most populous state of

the country, West Bengal is said to have occupied the ninth position in respect of world

population. With a total area of 88,853 sq.km, West Bengal occupies 2.77 percent of India‟s land

area, and accommodates 7.55 percent of country‟s and 1.3 percent world‟s population in 2011.

West Bengal, with 1029 persons per square kilometer, has emerged as the highest density of

population in India which is also higher than national average 382 per sq km. This indicates that

the pressure of population on the land in this state is very high. The actual pressure of population

upon West Bengal may be higher than what is estimated from Census. West Bengal‟s population

as per Census 2011 was 9,13,47,736 which is an increase from 8,01,76,197 in 2001 census. The

total population growth in this decade was 13.93 percent while in previous decade it was 17.77

percent. It is estimated to have risen to 9,99,88,000 in 2025.According to the census of 1911, the

population of the state was 1,79,98,769 since then, a period of 100 years, and the population of

the state has increased by 9,13,47,736 that is an increase of 407.52 percent. This unprecedented

rate of population growth in West Bengal has been caused due to the drastic decline in mortality

without decline in fertility after 1950. The ultimate solution to the growing population therefore,

lies in the control of family size. In the context of economic growth, it is really an alarming

situation. Though WB is a state of India, its population can be compared to any country‟s

population and its population is almost similar to Philippines (93.6 crore) .Hence, we may also

consider it as a separate nation in that sense. Therefore, Demographic transition theory can be

applied here to identify at which stage the state is now and where is approaching. It is high time

for the West Bengal government to adopt proactive policy rather than a reactive policy to this

issue. Time has come to deal with it assertively.



The Demographic Transition Theory

With the passage of time, as literacy rate increases country moves from traditional, non-

industrial to a modern, industrial and urban society , and ,thereby, family size gradually

decreases. This demographic transition has become a universal phenomenon in which every

country may be placed on a scale of progress. Most of this dramatic change has occurred over the

last 150 years. It is the human race to control family size and to maximize survival. The

demographic transition is the change in the human condition from high mortality and high

fertility to low mortality and low fertility. The demographic transition theory is based on an

interpretation of demographic history developed by the American demographer Warren

Thompson in 1929 but later in 1945, Frank W. Notestein, Blacker and others developed this

theory by describing the various stages of population growth based on birth and death rates. This

is typically demonstrated through a model called demographic transition model (DTM). The

model is used to represent the transition from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high

mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. It explains how population

growth rates change over time as modernisation proceeds. The theory states that every country

passes through mainly three stages of demographic transition and the stages can be are

empirically tested or verified. Despite the model has got many weaknesses but it is simple to

understand, dynamic and changes over time, so can be adjusted for future changes. The model is

described below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography



Source: www.coolgeography.co.uk

In the first stage, high birth rate is matched by an equally high death rate. Hence the population

remains more or less stable over a long period of time. Here, birth rate is high due to lack of

family planning ,high Infant Mortality Rate(IMR), need for workers in agriculture , old religious

beliefs etc. and death rate is high due to disease, lack of clean water and sanitation ,lack of health

care facility , limited food supply, lack of education. In the second stage, there is substantial

reduction in the death rate without a corresponding fall in the birth rate and consequently, the

rate of population growth remains high and creates population explosion in the country. Here,

death rate decreases due to improved hygiene, improved sanitation, improved food production

and storage, improved transport for food and birth rate remains high as because people are used



to having many children and taking time for culture to change. But the third stage is

characterized by low population growth rate as birth rate declines significantly. In this stage birth

rate decreases due to improvements in contraceptive technology, changes in values about

children and sex, rising costs of dependent children to a family, less time of working women for

child rearing etc and death rate low due to better health Care, vaccinations, better knowledge of

diseases, pre-natal care, improved sanitation, improved quality and quantity of food. Once

country reaches at this stage, the critical phase of population explosion is over. During stage four

birth and death rates are both low and therefore the total population increases slowly and

remains stable. Here, birth rate low due to family planning, good health, improved status of

women , late marriages etc. The above model originally had four stages but fifth stage has been

added as per UK‟s recent data on demography.

Some Evidences of DTM

In developed countries this transition began in the eighteenth century and still continues today.

Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-20th century. Today there are

no countries in the first Stage, the majority of developing as well as less developed countries

either are in second stage or third stage of the model. Scholarly articles found that countries like

Bhutan, Yemen, Palestine, Laos and much of Sub-Saharan Africa are in the second stage

whereas Countries like China, South Korea, Singapore, and Cuba are speedily approaching to

third Stage. Few countries such as China, Brazil and Thailand have passed through the DTM

very quickly due to rapid social and economic change. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana,

Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have moved into third stage. Most developed

countries are already in stage four of the model. Some countries like Cuba, Germany, Greece,

Hong Kong, Italy, Portugal, Spain, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and more specifically

Japan, whose populations are now well below their replacement levels. If we look at India‟s

population from the census 1901 to 2001 its demographic position was in the second stage but

census 2011 showed that today India is in the third stage of the model. Still population is

growing but demographers anticipated that this growth will begin to slow down very soon. Since

the beginning of twentieth century and more particularly after independence same picture is

visualised in West Bengal due to change in social, demographic and economic factors, which

lead to fall the state in the third stage of the model.



Table 1.1

Population in West Bengal (1901-2011)

Census

Year

Actual

Population Population

Increase in

Population

Decennial

population growth

(In crores)

(In the previous

decade) (In crores) (in percent)

Density of

population(per

sq. km.)

1901 16940088 169.4 - - 193

1911 17998769 180 10.6 6.25 205

1921 17474349 174.7 -5.3 -2.91 199

1931 18897036 189 14.3 8.14 215

1941 23229552 232.3 43.3 22.93 264

1951 26299980 263 30.7 13.22 299

1961 34926279 349.3 86.3 32.8 394

1971 44312011 443.1 93.8 26.87 504

1981 54580647 545.8 102.7 23.17 615

1991 68077965 680.8 135 24.73 767

2001 80176197 801.8 121 17.77 903

2011 91347736 913.5 111.7 13.93 1029

Source: Census of India, 1901-2011

Every year the Registrar General of India conducts sample surveys, and estimates the annual

rates of birth and death. According to 1901 census, the size of population was 1,69,40,088.Since

then there has been a rapid increase in the population till 1961 but an exception occurred in

census 1921 where population growth rate became -2.91 percent. From the above table it is

evident that there was a big jump from 1951 to 1961 where population growth rate increased to

32.8 in 1961 from 13.22 percent in 1951. After 1961, population growth rate of West Bengal



started slowing down. The population growth rate declined from 26.87 percent in 1961-71 to

23.17 percent in 1971-81. This is probably due to expansion of education, family planning

programme and rise in social consciousness. The 1991 Census puts the decadal growth rate at

24.73 percent which is higher than that in 1971-81. The rate of growth of population of the State

during 1961 to 1971 was 26.87 percent, which came down to 17.77 per cent during 2001. West

Bengal recorded sharp decline in growth rate of population during 1981-91 and 1991-2001. It is

also noted that the population in West Bengal has been steadily increasing during the last five

decades after Independence. During 1971-2001, West Bengal has accommodated more than 4

million outsiders among them nearly 3 million Bengali-speaking Hindus entered from

Bangladesh alone. (Source: Statistical Abstract, West Bengal, 1978-89 (Combined Issue),

Bureau of Applied Economics and Statistics). The census of 1991 has shown that the decennial

rate of population growth remained as high as 24.73 percent during the 1980s. The increase in

population in the state is also reflected in the density of population which increased from 504 in

1971 to 903 per sq. km. in 2001. In 2001, West Bengal was the most populated State in the

country. During the last 100 years, i.e. from 1911 to 2011 density of population has increased

from 205 to 1029 per sq. km respectively. This should be a matter of serious concern for our

planners and policy–makers.



Table.1.2

Projected Total Population by Sex as on 1st March, 2001-2026 (000’)

Year Male Female Total

2001 41466 38710 80176

2002 42009 39269 81278

2003 42523 39798 82321

2004 43013 40303 83316

2005 43486 40791 84277

2006 43947 41268 85215

2007 44394 41731 86125

2008 44820 42174 86994

2009 45234 42605 87839

2010 45640 43029 88669

2011 46045 43454 89499

2012 46445 43874 90319

2013 46836 44287 91123

2014 47223 44697 91920

2015 47623 45112 92735

2016 48012 48012 96024

2017 48390 48390 96780

2018 48762 46347 95109

2019 49129 46746 95875

2020 49491 47142 96633

2021 49847 47537 97384

2022 50173 47902 98075

2023 50488 48259 98747

2024 50786 48602 99388

2025 51061 48927 99988

2026 51307 49226 100533 Source: Population Projection for India & States 2001-2026, Report of the Technical Group on Population

Projections, May 2006

Registrar general„s population projections for West Bengal in 2011 was 8, 94, 99,000 but it

actually turned out to 9, 13, 47,736 as recorded in the census 2011. Projection for 2021 is 9.74

crores meaning that population will be growing but at a slower rate. Considering this trend, it

has been projected that during 2025- 2026 total population of West Bengal would cross ten

crores but this growth rate would decline to 9.53 percent as compared to 2001 census. West



Bengal‟s population projections given above shows that soon the rate of population growth will

decline and the state would be on peak point of the third stage of demographic transition model.

Table.1.3

Vital statistics rates, West Bengal, 1901-2011

Year CBR

CDR Natural Growth

Rate

IMR

1901-11 38 38 0 NA

1911-21 33

50 -17 NA

1921-31 29

42 -13 NA

1931-41 28

NA 28 NA

1941-51 NA

NA NA NA

1951-61 42.9 20.5 22.4 95

1971 19 NA NA 62

1981 33.2 11 22.2 91

1982 32.3 10.4 21.9 86

1983 32 10.3 21.7 84

1984 30.4 10.7 19.7 82

1985 29.4 9.6 19.8 74

1986 29.7 8.8 20.9 71

1987 30.7 8.8 21.9 71

1988 28.4 8.4 20 69

1989 29.2 8.8 20.4 77

1990 28.2 8.4 19.8 63



Source : Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home affairs, 2001, Govt. of West Bengal

West Bengal Human Development Report,2004 (WBHDR),1990-2001, Economic Review, various issue, 266, 2006

Sample Registration Survey Reports by the Registrar General of India, 1951-2011, Sample Registration System

1981-2008, *NA=DATA NOT AVAILABLE

The above table shows that during the first decade of 20th century, the estimated birth rate as well

as death rate for West Bengal was equal but quite high and natural growth rate remained more or

less stable. Thereafter, birth rate started falling slowly but death rate was rising and it continued

1991 27 8.3 18.7 71

1992 24.8 8.4 16.4 65

1993 25.7 7.4 18.3 58

1994 25.2 8.3 16.9 62

1995 23.6 7.9 15.7 58

1996 22.8 7.8 15 55

1997 22.4 7.7 14.7 55

1998 21.3 7.5 13.8 53

1999 20.7 7.1 13.6 52

2000 20.7 7 13.7 51

2001 20.6 7 13.6 51

2002 20.5 6.7 13.8 49

2003 20.3 6.6 13.7 46

2004 19.3 6.3 13 40

2005 18.8 6.4 12.4 38

2006 18.4 6.2 12.2 38

2007 17.9 6.3 11.6 37

2008 17.5 6.2 11.3 35

2009 17.2 6.2 11 33

2010 16.8 6 10.8 31

2011



till 1921-31(as per data available). More particularly during 1951-61, birth rate was highest i,e.

42.9 and thereafter it declined slightly but death rate relatively falling sharply. From 1901-11

to 1951-61, birth rate increased by only about 5 points, that is from 38 to 42.9 and death rate

declined from 38 to 20.5 per thousand population. During 1981, birth rate declined to 33.2 and

death rate declined to 11 per thousand populations and the estimated natural population increase

in West Bengal stood at 22.2 percent. The crude birth rate(CBR) in West Bengal declined from

22.4 to 17.5 between 1997 and 2008 (or by 28 per cent) but during the same period, crude death

rate(CDR) declined from 7.7 to 6.2 and estimated natural population growth rate stood at 11.3

percent. It is a positive signal for population control in WB. The table here is all based on SRS

and census data showing that the demographic transition in West Bengal has proceeded more

rapidly than India as a whole, and in a positive direction. In terms of both crude birth rates and

crude death rates, the improvement has been significantly greater than for India as a whole, even

though the State already had lower rates than the Indian average. One of the major reasons for

the decrease in death rates is the decline in infant mortality rates (IMRs) in the State. Soon after

the independence, IMR started showing declining and it continues today also. IMR of WB

declined to 71 in 1991 from that of 95 during the year 1951-61 and it further declined to 31 in

2010.This improvement in IMR may be due to expansion of education, family planning

programs, vaccinations, better knowledge of diseases, pre-natal care, rise in social consciousness,

improved sanitation, improved quality and quantity of food etc.

Table.1.4

Demographic framework West Bengal 1901-2011

Period Crude

Birth Rate

Crude Death

Rate

Rates of

Natural

increase

Infant

Mortality

Rate

1901-1911

High birth rate Equal high

death rate

more or less

stable over a

long period of

time

Not recorded



Source: Statistics from Table 1.3

The demographic transition, as explained below, has occurred in various phases in West Bengal.

1. Pre-early Phase: 1901-1951 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4)

During 1901-11, West Bengal had equal birth rate and death rate and as a result natural

population growth rate remained more or less stable. But during second census death rate

increased from 38 to 50 and birth rate decreased from 38 to 33 per thousand populations which

caused negative natural growth rate. During 1921-31, birth rate was falling very slowly but

death rate was falling very sharply which resulted into an imbalance in natural growth rate.

More specifically, during the first five decades of twentieth century, population has increased by

55.25 percent but decennial growth rate reached at 13.22 percent. It can be considered as pre-

early phase of transition.

2. Early Phase : 1951-1961 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4)

Since Independence, West Bengal has been going through a social and economic transformation.

The state experienced high CBR and high CDR for the period 1951-61 that resulted into a very

high natural growth rate. During that period CBR was 42.9 while the CDR was 20.5 resulting

into a very high rate of natural increase i.e. 22.4 percent and IMR was very high i.e. 95. The IMR

was very high but falling during that period. Although CBR and IMR were high, yet the very

high decennial population growth rates caused the total population to increase from 1,79,98,769

in 1901-11 to 3,49,26,279 in 1951-61.

1951-1971

Very high high death rate

but falls

rapidly

Very rapid

increase

Very High but

Falling

1971-1991

high moderate high High but

sharply

Falling

1991-2011

Moderate to

low

Moderate to

low

Moderate to

low

Slightly High

but

Falling



3. Moderate Phase : 1971-1991 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4)

During that period, the high CBR and moderate CDR resulted into a high natural growth rate i.e.

18.7 which caused the total population to continue increase from 4, 43,12,011 in 1971 to

6,80,77,965 in 1991. The above table also shows that West Bengal experienced a high but

falling IMR, reaching 71 in 1991 and continues to fall slowly.

4. Full Phase : 1991-2010(Tables 1.3 and 1.4)

In this period, West Bengal experienced a moderate to low CBR and also a moderate to low

CDR. CBR and CDR fell from 27and 8.3 in 1991 to 16.8 and 6 respectively in 2010. The fall in

both CBR and CDR caused relatively slower rate of population growth and decennial growth

rate reached at 13.9 percent in 2011 as shown in table1.4. Recent data from the office of the

Registrar-General of India show that West Bengal is now one of the best-performing States in

the country in terms of the most basic health indicators. During this period, IMR was although

slightly high but fell from 71 in 1991 to 31 in 2010 and natural growth rate has come down at

10.8 from 18.7 in the subsequent years.

Projected CBR, CDR and Projected Natural Growth Rate 1st March, 2001-2026

Source: Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006, National Commission on

population, MOHFW, Projected Natural Growth Rate is estimated by author.

The above table shows that actual CBR and actual CDR of the state were almost same as the

projected CBR and CDR during the year 2005. During the year 2010, actual CBR and CDR was

16.8 and 6.0 respectively whereas the projected CBR and CDR during the same year was 16.6

2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 Projected

CBR

18.8 16.6 15.9 15.3 14.1

Projected

CDR 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.3 Projected

Natural

Growth Rate

12.6

10.2

9.3

8.4

6.8



and 6.4 respectively. It proves that projection of the demographers is going at the right direction.

If it continues in the same way, during 2021-2025, CBR and CDR of West Bengal will reach at

14.1 and 7.3 respectively and natural population growth rate would come down at 6.8 and this

will lead to a demographic balance and considerable social as well as political stability in the

state. This improvement will occur only when progress in the health sector will be made

available for rural as well as urban people.

Conclusion:

West Bengal was in Stage I till 1961, with very high birth and very high death rates. This higher

birth rate led the state to very high population growth. During the period 1971-1991, death rates

fell faster than birth rates which resulted in rapid population growth and state reached at stage II.

Since the 1990s, there has been a noticeable decrease in birth rates together with a decrease in

death rates, led the state in stage III. This may be due to improvement in both IMR and MMR.

Demographers anticipated that during 2021-2025, CBR and CDR of West Bengal will reach at

14.1 and 7.3 respectively and natural population growth rate would come down at 6.8 and this

will lead to a demographic balance and considerable social as well as political stability in West

Bengal.

References/ Footnotes/ Sources:

Anandabazar Patrika, Bengali daily, Calcutta, 8 March 1995

Bangladesh Population Census 1991, Vol. 2, December, 1993; and Report of the Task Force on

Bangladesh: Development Strategies for the 1990‟s, Vol. 1, University Press Ltd., Dhaka, 1991,

p. 20.

Carole R. McCann, Malthusian Men and Demographic Transitions: A Case Study of Hegemonic

Masculinity in Mid-Twentieth-Century Population Theory, A Journal of Women Studies, Volume

30, pp. 142-171 , Number 1, 2009

Census of India, 1981, Series 23, social and cultural tables, West Bengal, Part- IV A

Economic Review, (1971-72). West Bengal.

Economic Review, various issue, 266, 2006

Mohiuddin Ahmed, “The Missing Population”, Holiday, Weekly, Dhaka, 7 January 1994.

http://muse.jhu.edu/results?section1=author&search1=Carole%20R.%20McCann

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/frontiers

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/frontiers/toc/fro.30.1.html





Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home affairs, 2001.

Population Projection for India & States 1996-2016 - Registrar General India

Population Projection for India & States 2001-2026, Report of the Technical Group on

Population Projections, May 2006.

Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006, National Commission on

population, MOHFW.

Statistical Abstract, West Bengal, 1978-89 (Combined Issue), Bureau of Applied Economics

and Statistics.

Sample Registration System 1981-2008.

Sample Registration Survey Reports by the Registrar General of India, 1951-2011

Sample Registration Survey Reports (SRS, Bulletin-1981-2004) by the Registrar General of

India, New Delhi.

Sample Registration Survey (SRS, Bulletin-1981-2004) by the Registrar

General of India, New Delhiigure 1.2: Birth and Death Rates of West Bengal, 1981-2004.

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www.coolgeography.co.uk

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