Demographic Transition

Shows how population changes over time Knowing where a country falls on the model

lets you know what kind of economy that country has & much more!

Demographic Transition

It’s a crystal ball!If country currently falls in stage 2, the model can be used to predict how its population will change over time and how much it will grow

The world falls in an early stage 3 Knowing this we can estimate a population

projection that the planet’s population has only reached about two-third’s of its potential

If we are currently at 6.9 billion, then we can expect once global populations level off in stage 4, our population will be somewhere around 10 billion.

This could happen around 2060!!!

Let’s Break it down

Stage by Stage!

Characterized by pre-agricultural societies engaged in subsistence farming and transhumance

Subsistence- growing enough to feed your family

Transhumance- seasonal migration for food and resources

Stage 1

Birth and death rates fluctuate

Stage 1

Children were an expression of a family’s productivity and status

Status of women Because of high infant mortality rates

Why high birth rates?

Overall population has a very low life expectancy

Lack of modern medicine and health care Limited sanitation Low nutritional standards Famine War

Why high death rates?

Typically agricultural-based economies

Difference from stage 1? Its usually agriculture for trade, instead of subsistence

Rate of natural increase goes up significantly, as birth & death rates grow apart…, so as a country advances the population explodes

Stage 2

When you move to a more formalized agricultural based economy children are even more important as a source of labor on farms

Role of women has not changed

Birth rate in Stage 2

Seasonal migrations decreases, with people permanently settling to farm (reduces death from excessive labor and travel by foot)

Larger food supply available because of trading in agricultural goods

Death Rates in Stage 2

Newly Industrialized Countries Ex. Brazil, Mexico, India You see recent changes from agricultural

economy of stage 2 to a manufacturing based economy in stage 3

Rapid population growth- part where birth and death are furthest apart

Rapidly increasing rate of urbanization

NIC’s- Stage 2 & 1/2ish

Remember: it’s a theoretical model and not all countries fit the model

Ex. China is an NIC, but due to its one-child policy, appears far more advanced, compared to other NIC’s

industrialized or manufacturing based economies

Birth rates decrease, death rates decrease and level off

Stage 3

Decrease due to effects of urbanization As families move to cities they have less

time, less need and most importantly less space for children

Access to health care increases & leads to family planning, contraceptives

Female employment Education of women

Birth Rates in Stage 3

Access to health care & nutrition continues to increase life expectancy, which decreases the death rate

But eventually death rates bottom out. Why?

We are all going to die… at some point you just cant stop people from dying.

Life expectancies can go up more later in stage 4, but death rate stays about the same

Death Rates in Stage 3

In stage 4, birth and death rates come back together to result in limited population growth and sometimes even decline

Here we find our First World countries, they are now “industrialized”

But, keep in mind most of these economies are moving toward service industry economies

Highly urbanized countries with long life expectancies

Stage 4

Birth rates bottom out Roles of women have changed Women are heavily engaged in business,

social & political activities and are far less likely to have kids

Low fecundity (- state of being fertile) DINKS- double income no kids

Birth Rates

Still Low! Death Rates

How would it compare with population pyramids?

The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages; however, some theorists consider that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries that have sub-replacement fertility (that is, below 2.1 children per woman).

Most European and many East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rates.

Stage 5?