World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · • Exports from Russia to rebound 5% from last year to...
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Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released May 12, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments. World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation May 2020
Transcript of World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · • Exports from Russia to rebound 5% from last year to...
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates released May 12, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year
depending on weather and other developments.
World Wheat Supply and
Demand Situation
May 2020
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
• 2020/21 global wheat production to jump to record of 768 MMT• Wheat production in Russia to jump 5% from 2019/20 to 77.0 MMT • European Union (EU) wheat production to fall 7% from last year to 143 MMT on overly wet
weather during fall 2019 planting and overly dry weather during spring 2020• U.S. wheat production to decrease 3% from last year to 50.8 MMT as lower yields are expected to
offset increased harvested area
• Global consumption forecast at 753 MMT, the highest on record• Egyptian domestic consumption to reach a record 20.8 MMT, up 5% from the 5-year average• Domestic consumption in China to reach a record 130 MMT, up 7% from the 5-year average• U.S. domestic consumption to decrease to 30.6 MMT, down 3% from last year
• World wheat trade to jump to record 188 MMT, up 3% year-over-year • Exports from Russia to rebound 5% from last year to 33.0 MMT • Australian wheat exports to jump 83% from 2019/20 to 15.0 MMT as beneficial rains are expected
to boost production following last year’s drought • U.S. 2020/21 exports to fall to 25.6 MMT, 2% below the 2019/20 estimate of 26.4 MMT
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
• World beginning stocks to jump 6% from 2019/20 to 295 MMT, 14% greater than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese beginning stocks of 150 MMT are 34% higher than the 5-year average and make up 51% of the global total
• Indian beginning stocks to jump to a record 24.0 MMT, 67% greater than the 5-year average • U.S. 2020/21 beginning stocks to drop 9% year-over-year to 26.6 MMT, but are still forecast to make up
43% of all major exporter beginning stocks
• Global ending stocks projected at record 310 MMT, 5% higher than last year and 14% greater than the 5-year average
• Projected Russian ending stocks to jump 24% from last year to 10.3 MMT• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 160 MMT, 7% greater than last year and 27% more
than the 5-year average • U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease 7% from last year to 24.7 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
• U.S. wheat farm gate price to remain stable year-over-year*• The average farm gate price of wheat in 2020/21 is forecast to hold steady at $4.60/bu ($169/MT)
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Supply and Demand
World Production and Use
731764 768
735749 753
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
72 65 61
368 388 391
440454 453
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500M
MT
Beginning Stocks Production
Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
18/19 19/20 20/21
SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 284 279 295Production 731 764 768Supply Total 1015 1044 1064Ending Stocks 279 295 310
TRADE: Exports/Imports 174 183 188
DEMAND: Food & Seed 596 605 616Feed & Residual 140 143 137Use Total 735 749 753
Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
57 54 51
16 11 11
81 74 83
131 140150
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350M
MT
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
3839
41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
2323
24
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27Pe
rcen
t
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
54 51 51
11 11 13
74 83 86
140 150 160
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position(MMT)
Exporters, 63.7
Importers, 86.1China, 160
Supply and Demand
Global Ending Stocks and Price
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
54 51 51
11 11 13
214234
246
$231
$216
$125
$175
$225
$275
$325
$375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$US/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
51 50 47
17 22 20
43 41 45
10 7 8
30 44 36
3028
30
1411 20
1415 16
0
50
100
150
200
250M
MT
ArgentinaAustraliaCanadaEUKazakhstanRussiaUkraineU.S.
Canada Situation
6.7 6.0 5.5
32.2 32.3 34.00.5 0.6 0.5
24.423.0
24.5
9.010.4 9.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
6.05.5 5.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0M
MT
Australia Situation
5.5 5.0 3.7
17.315.2
24.00.40.5
0.2
9.0 8.2
15.0
9.2 8.7 7.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
5.0
3.7
5.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0M
MT
Argentina Situation
0.5 1.7 1.4
19.519.5
21.0
12.213.5
14.5
6.1 6.3 6.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
1.71.4
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5M
MT
EU Situation
13.9 12.0 13.3
137
155143
5.8
4.65.5
23.335.0
28.5
121 123 120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU Ending Stocks
12.013.3 13.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0M
MT
Russia Situation
12.0 7.8 8.3
71.7 73.677.0
0.4 0.40.5
35.8 33.5 35.0
40.5 40.0 40.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
7.88.3
10.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0M
MT
Ukraine Situation
1.2 1.6 1.2
25.1
29.228.0
16.0
20.519.0
8.8 9.1 8.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Exports Domestic use
Ukraine Ending Stocks
1.61.2
1.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0M
MT
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.2 14.9 15.0
124 130 1337.8 7.5 7.8
61.0 60.9 62.1
77.1 76.9 77.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
35.8 33.5 35.0
16.0 20.5 19.0
8.3 6.0 7.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0M
MT
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
14.9 15.0
17.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0M
MT
U.S. Situation
29.9 29.4 26.6
51.3 52.350.8
3.7 2.93.8
25.5 26.4 25.9
30.0 31.5 30.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks29.4
26.624.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0M
MT
Major Exporters
Import DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.0
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 31, 2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 30, 2020
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
(year-to-date sales for current marketing year delivery)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
TMT
2019/20 2020/21
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 30, 2020
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
(year-to-date sales for new marketing year delivery)
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200M
MT
"Other" China FSU EU
Major ExportersImport Demand
U.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
U.S. Wheat Planted Area
*Source: March 2020 USDA Prospective Plantings Report
23.8 23.2 22.5 21.7
10.3 12.7 12.0 11.9
5.615.89 5.22 5.69
4.024.12
4.12 4.12
2.31 2.061.34 1.29
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Mill
ion
Acre
s
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date sales for current marketing year delivery)
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 30, 2020
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date sales for new marketing year delivery)
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 30, 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
TMT
2019/20 2020/21
U.S. Hard Red Winter
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
15.8 14.0
18.022.7
9.0 10.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
5.27.2
16.0
14.2
7.0 7.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
5.6 4.3
7.8
6.5
3.52.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
2.4 2.4
7.47.4
5.3 5.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
1.0 1.5
2.1 1.5
1.41.1
0.6
1.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0M
MT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
HRW HRS SRW18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 15.8 14.0 5.20 7.16 5.58 4.30Production 18.0 22.7 16.0 14.2 7.78 6.50Supply Total 34.0 36.8 23.0 22.8 13.47 10.9
Domestic Use 10.9 12.8 8.82 8.65 5.69 5.14Exports 9.0 10.1 7.05 7.48 3.48 2.59Use Total 19.9 22.9 15.9 16.1 9.17 7.73
Ending Stocks 14.0 13.9 7.16 6.61 4.30 3.21
Stocks-to-Use 70% 61% 45% 41% 47% 42%
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
White Durum Total 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 2.37 2.40 0.95 1.50 29.9 29.4Production 7.40 7.40 2.12 1.47 51.3 52.3Supply Total 9.9 9.96 4.49 4.06 84.9 84.5
Domestic Use 2.20 2.45 2.40 2.40 30.0 31.5Exports 5.33 5.17 0.60 1.09 25.5 26.4Use Total 7.54 7.62 2.99 3.48 55.5 57.9
Ending Stocks 2.40 2.34 1.50 0.57 29.4 26.6
Stocks-to-Use 32% 31% 50% 16% 53% 46%
Class information for 2020/21 will be published in the July 2020 USDA WASDE report
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
150
175
200
225
250
275
300$/
Met
ric T
on
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
200
225
250
275
300$/
Met
ric T
on
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
Soft White and SRW Prices
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
150
175
200
225
250
275$/
Met
ric T
on
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100$/
Met
ric T
on
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100$/
Met
ric T
on
HRS 14 HRW 12
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Production, Area and Yield
16.0 15.0 15.2
51.3 52.350.8
3.2
3.5
3.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
MT/
hect
are
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
47.845.2 44.7
88.9
89.7
97.0
89.2
76.1
83.5
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
731 76
4
768
735 749
753
174
183188
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
1123
1115 11
87
1126
1120 11
56
181169
182
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
360
336 36
3
343 34
8 361
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 8, 2020
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0$/
Met
ric to
n
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Gulf to West Africa
Summary• Global wheat production in 2020/21 to reach a record 768 MMT
• Wheat production in Russia to jump 5% from 2019/20 to 77.0 MMT • European Union (EU) wheat production to fall 7% from last year to 143 MMT on overly
wet weather during fall 2019 planting and overly dry weather during spring 2020• U.S. wheat production to decrease 3% from last year to 50.8 MMT as lower yields are
expected to offset increased harvested area
• Global ending stocks projected at record 310 MMT, 5% higher than last year and 14% greater than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 160 MMT, 7% greater than last year and 27% more than the 5-year average
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease 7% from last year to 24.7 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
• World consumption and trade both forecast to reach record levels• Total global wheat consumption to reach an all-time high of 753 MMT• Total global trade to reach a record 188 MMT, 3% greater than last year• U.S. 2020/21 domestic consumption to decrease to 30.6 MMT, down 3% from last year
