The Scoop on U.S. Wheat · 1. 2016/17 global wheat production to reach new record of 751 MMT –...
Transcript of The Scoop on U.S. Wheat · 1. 2016/17 global wheat production to reach new record of 751 MMT –...
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The Scoop on U.S. Wheat
2017 Spring Technical Conference
And
IAOM Joint District Meeting
Justin Gilpin
Kansas WhEAT Commission
Manhattan, KS
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Overview
• A quick look at current milling crop
• 2017 HRW Crop preview
– Planted Acreage
– Current growing conditions
• Global wheat situation
• Kansas Wheat Innovation Center tours this afternoon
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US Farmers investing in their
industry
• Farmers through Wheat Commission
checkoffs invest in:
– Wheat variety development
– Quality research
– Market promotion through US Wheat and WFC
Associates
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Main Themes with 2016 HRW
• Big Crop
– Record yields across hard red winter regions
• Lower protein
– Quality good; kernel characteristics noted
• Lowest prices in a decades
• Planted acres expected to be down affecting
next year’s harvest
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Record yields!
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Yields resulted from
• Weather: plentiful rain fall and temperatures
– Ideal filling period for wheat crop
– Not limited by heat, drought or disease stress
• Good management
– Farmers invested in this crop
• Improved genetics
– Seeing the results of competitive variety
development: Private companies and public
Universities
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US Wheat Production Regions
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Kernel Characteristics
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2016 Hard Red Winter Wheat
Test Weight (lb/bu)
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2016
PNW HRW - Test Weight Distribution
Per
cen
t of
Sam
ple
s
2 1
14
51
25
7
4
7
32
44
13
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
<56 56-57.9 58-59.9 60-61.9 62-63.9 64+
2016 Average 60.8 (lb/bu)2015 Average 60.1 (lb/bu)
Test Weight (lb/bu)
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2016 Hard Red Winter Wheat
1000 Kernel Weight (g)
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2016
PNW HRW - TKW Distribution
Per
cen
t of
Sam
ple
s
Thousand Kernel Weight (g)
3
27
37
810
1513
32
35
20
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
<27 27-29.9 30-32.9 33-35.9 36-38.9 39+
2016 Average 31.6 (g)
2015 Average 30.6 (g)
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2016 Hard Red Winter Wheat
Protein (12%mb), %
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2016 Hard Red Winter Wheat
Stability (min)
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Low
Pro
Med
Pro
High
Pro
2016
AVG
2015
AVG
5-Year
AVG
Pan Bread: Bake
Absorption (%)61.4 64.5 66.1 63.9 62.0 62.0
Crumb Grain and Texture
(1-10)5.2 6.0 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.3
Loaf Volume (cc) 764 843 894 829 850 818
2016
PNW HRW – Bake Data
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Now, a quick look ahead
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U.S. Hard Red Winter
8.012.1
22.6
29.5
6.2
10.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
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Where Wheat Prices were
At the time of Planting Decisions
• According to DTN Friday, November 12th
– Average cash prices to farmers:
• Spring wheat = $4.69 ($172.31 per mt)
• Soft Red Winter = $3.61 ($132.63 per mt)
• Hard Red Winter = $3.04 ($111.69 per mt)
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Sideways after harvest lows
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Factors driving HRW
• Record yields
• Lower protein
• Storage
• Carry market
• Creating Buying and Blending opportunities
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U.S. Wheat Supply and
Demand
15/16 16/17 15/16 16/17 15/16 16/17
Beginning Stocks 8.0 12.1 5.8 7.4 4.2 4.3
Production 22.6 29.5 15.5 13.4 9.8 9.4
Imports 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.9
Supply Total 30.8 41.8 22.5 22.0 14.5 14.5
Domestic Use 12.5 15.1 8.3 8.2 6.9 6.8
Exports 6.2 10.6 6.9 8.0 3.3 2.4
Use Total 18.6 25.7 15.1 16.2 10.2 9.2
Ending Stocks 12.1 16.0 7.4 5.7 4.3 5.3
Stocks-to-Use 65% 62% 49% 35% 42% 58%
HRW HRS SRW
MMT
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Wheat Prices at planting time
• According to DTN Friday, November 12th
– Average cash prices to farmers:
• Spring wheat = $4.69 ($172.31 per mt)
• Soft Red Winter = $3.61 ($132.63 per mt)
• Hard Red Winter = $3.04 ($111.69 per mt)
• Soybeans = $9.42
• Futures Prices Dec 16 contracts:
– MGEX $5.19 (Basis back to farmers -$0.50)
– CBOT $4.02 (Basis back to farmers -$0.41)
– KCBT $4.09 (Basis back to farmers -$1.05)
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Basis being paid back to the farmer
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Economic tough times for farmers
ahead
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Not only are acres down…
• Current dry conditions
– Kansas at only 40% good to excellent vs. 43%
last week
• Emergence issues, may result in
abandonment
• Low prices may influence management
decisions
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Acres that are planted, dryness
creeping in is concerning…
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Situation has not improved…
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KC July Futures
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WORLD WHEAT
SUPPLY AND
DEMAND SITUATIONMARCH 2017
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
released March 9, 2017. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on
weather and other developments.
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Highlights of USDA’s 2016/17 Supply and
Demand Estimates1. 2016/17 global wheat production to reach new record of 751 MMT
– Global supplies estimate to reach new record of 991 MMT; up 4% from the 2015/16 record
– Wheat production for Australia estimated at a record high 35.0 MMT, up 45% year over year
– Argentina wheat production estimated at 16.0 MMT, 42% above 2015/16
2. Consumption forecast at 741 MMT, the fourth consecutive record high, up 4%
from 2015/16– Chinese feed wheat consumption to climb 52% year over year to 16.0 MMT
– Feed wheat usage expected to reach 2.80 MMT in Vietnam, compared to the 5-year average of 640,000 MT
– U.S. feed wheat usage to rise 48% year over year to 6.12 MMT
3. World wheat trade projected at 181 MMT, 13% above 5-year average– Canadian exports to fall to 20.5 MMT, 7% below 2015/16
– Indian imports to reach 5.50 MMT, the largest since 2006/07
– US exports to reach 27.9 MMT, up 32% from 2015/16 and 5% above the 5-year average
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Highlights of USDA’s 2016/17 Supply and Demand Estimates (Continued)
4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 240 MMT, up 10% year
over year– Beginning stocks in Australia rose to 5.64 MMT, up 21% year over year
– U.S. beginning stocks rose to an estimated 26.5 MMT, 30% above 2015/16 levels
5. Global ending stocks projected at record 250 MMT, 4% higher than
2015/16, if realized– Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 111 MMT account for 44% of global ending stocks, 59%
greater than the 5-year average
– Endings stocks in Australia projected at 7.33 MMT, up 30% year over year, if realized
– U.S. ending stocks to grow 16% year over year to 30.7 MMT
6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 21% lower in 2016/17– Projected average range: $3.80 to $3.90/bushel ($140-$143/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
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World Production and UseUsing over 3 billion more bushels than a decade ago…
73
5
75
1
712
741
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
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Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Beginning Stocks
42 47 40 43 50 52
2027
14 1621 17
46
68
69 7071 75
60
56
5465
7697
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
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Global Stocks*-to-Use
Ratio
*Ending stocks
21
30
28
31
34 34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
Pe
rce
nt
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Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o
China
*Ending stocks
18
27
22
24 24
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
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50 52 55
21 17 22
71 75 62
7697 111
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
250
217
240
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
• Major Exporters
• Import Demand
• U.S. Situation by Class
• Outlook
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Canada Situation
10.47.1
5.2
29.4
27.6 31.7
24.222.1
20.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Canada Ending Stocks
7.4
10.4
7.1
5.2
6.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
MM
T
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Australia Situation
4.7 4.6 4.7 5.6
25.3 23.7 24.2
35.0
16.616.1
25.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Argentina Situation
0.3
2.5
4.8
0.6
10.5
13.9
11.3
16.0
5.3
9.610.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Black Sea Region Situation
• Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
14.5 15.9 20.7 16.7
104 113 118 130
40.2
51.5
53.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
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Black Sea Exports
18.622.8
25.528.5
9.8
11.3
17.416.5
8.1
5.5
7.67.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
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U.S. Situation
16.120.5
26.6
55.2
56.1 62.9
23.521.1
27.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
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U.S. Ending Stocks
20.2
16.1
20.5
26.6
30.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17
MM
T
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
• Major Exporters
• Import Demand
• U.S. Situation by Class
• Outlook
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Major World Wheat
Importers(from all origins)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
MM
T
16/17 15/16
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Source: USDA FAS export sales report March 9. 2017.
Top 10 Customers for U.S.
Wheat2016/17 vs. 2015/16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
MM
T
2016/17 2015/16
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World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
88/89 92/93 96/97 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
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World and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
• Major Exporters
• Import Demand
• U.S. Situation by Class
• Outlook
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U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Winter Wheat Seedings Report January 12, 2016
2017 USDA Grain and Oilseeds Outlook, February 23-24, 2017
26.523.3
6.6
5.7
4.2
3.4
13.6
13.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18*
Mil
lio
n A
cres
HRW SRW White Spring & Durum
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U.S. Wheat Area and
Production
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
MT/
he
ctar
es
Pro
du
ctio
n (
MM
T) a
nd
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh
)
Harvested Area Production Yield
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U.S. Crop Planted Area
Comparison
*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2016
28.5
23.0
22.4
32.0
36.7
36.1
24.9
33.9 34.3
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
Mill
ion
He
ctar
es
Wheat Corn Soybeans
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Summary• Global production at 751 MMT, fourth
consecutive record high, if realized– Argentina wheat production increased to 16.0 MMT, 32% above the 5-year average
– Wheat production in Australia expected to exceed 5-year average by 39% at 35.0 MMT
• Global ending stocks to rise to a record 250
MMT up 4% from 2015/16– Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 9.94 MMT, down 29% from 2015/16 if realized
– US ending stocks to be largest since 1987/88 at 30.7 MMT
• World consumption and trade expected to grow
in 2016/17– Argentine exports estimated at 10.1 MMT, up 5% year over year
– US exports to reach 27.9 MMT up 32% from 2015/16, 5% above the 5-year average
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So what does it mean to you?
• A lot of old crop still around, expect slow
new crop transitions
– Kansas production last year was 467 million,
may be closer to 250 million this year…
• Wheat Buyers will cram elevators full
• Protein premiums may back off so wheat
buyers may load up on lower pro, cheap
stuff…
• Enjoy this year’s extractions while you can
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Wheat is not just wheat…
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Kansas Hard White Wheat
• Promoting it as High Plains Platinum
• Improved varieties
• Kansas Grew about 15 million bushels this
year
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Hard White Wheat
• Better quality
– Test weights, absorptions
• Darn near Identity preserved
• Can be used interchangeably with hard red
• Find ways to innovate to add value. That is
the “new” Science of Milling is
Innovation!
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Enjoy your March Madness… #wheatnribs
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Go Cats!