USA Peanut Crop Situation

American Peanut Shellers AssociationSpring Conference

23 March 2011Lake Blackshear, Georgia

R. Scott TubbsCropping Systems Agronomist

University of Georgia

USA Planted Acreage, 2009 & 2010

State 2009 Planted Acres

2010Planted Acres

% of 2010 Planted Acres

Alabama 155 190 14.8Florida 115 145 11.3Georgia 510 565 43.9Mississippi 21 19 1.5North Carolina 67 87 6.8

South Carolina 50 67 5.2

Virginia 12 18 1.4New Mexico 7 10 0.8Oklahoma 14 22 1.7Texas 165 165 12.8USA 1,116 1,288SE = 71.3%; V-C = 13.4%; SW = 15.3% of acreage in 2010

Peanut Specialists in Peanut Producing States were asked to respond to the following questions:

• What will acreage do in 2011?

• What cultivars will be planted?

• What will be the major challenges in

2011?

VirginiaDr. Pat Phipps – Virginia Tech

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Down from the 18,000 in 2010– Not sure how far but some good contracts were

offered– Major factor was new EPA regulations

governing the use of Vapam for CBR and nematode control

• What cultivars will be planted?– Bailey, Sugg, Perry, Phillips, CHAMPS (in order

from high to low)

VirginiaDr. Pat Phipps – Virginia Tech

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– EPA regulations on Vapam use– Loss of Temik

North CarolinaDr. David Jordan – North Carolina State University

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Down slightly from 2010…maybe 5%,

about 80,000

• What cultivars will be planted?– Vast majority in Virginia types, maybe

5% runner– CHAMPS, Perry, Phillips, NC-V11, some

Bailey and Gregory

North CarolinaDr. David Jordan – North Carolina State University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?–Weed control–Managing CBR due to soybeans in

rotation– Fumigant changes– Overall expense of production

South CarolinaDr. Jay Chapin – Clemson University, retired

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Flat… about the same as 2010, about

65,000

• What cultivars will be planted?– Virginia: predominantly CHAMPS and NC-

V 11, with some Florida Fancy, Bailey, and Perry

– Runner: Georgia Greener, if can get seed that will germinate; second choice is Georgia-06G; Florida-07 for high O/L contract premium

South CarolinaDr. Jay Chapin – Clemson University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Timely rain always #1 concern– Resistant pigweed control– Everything else we can handle if we get

the rain!

New MexicoDr. Naveen Puppala – New Mexico State University

• What will acreage do in 2011?–We are expecting a reduction of 10% but

it may be down more than that

• What cultivars will be planted?–Mainly Valencia-C, Valencia-A, GenTex-

136, GenTex-112, GenTex-118, GenTex-119, and GenTex-122

New MexicoDr. Naveen Puppala – New Mexico State University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Even at $800 - $1,000 per ton, it is

difficult to find growers willing to sign a contract

– They are anticipating more cotton acreage in New Mexico

OklahomaDr. Chad Godsey – Oklahoma State University

• What will acreage do in 2011?– I think our acreage will stay around the 20,000

acre range– Over the past couple of years we have seen some

of the “old” peanut ground come back

• What cultivars will be planted?– A shift back to Spanish cultivars– I think nearly half of the acres will be Spanish,

mainly Tamnut OL06 and AT 98-99-14– The other half split between Virginia (Jupiter) and

Runner (Tamrun OL07 and Red River Runner

OklahomaDr. Chad Godsey – Oklahoma State University• What will be major challenges in

2011?– Biggest competition is going to be for cotton

acres–Water is not that big of an issue in most of the

peanut growing areas– Biggest challenge may be for those old

producers that have been out of peanuts for the last 10 years to quickly catch up with what has happened since they last grew the crop

– Producers are finally excited again to grow peanuts

TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Texas will likely be down in acres in 2011,

10% predicted, but could be higher

• What cultivars will be planted?– Runner: Flavorrunner 458 and Tamrun

OL07– Virginia: Gregory and AT07V– Spanish: Olin and Tamnut OL06– Valencia: Valencia C

TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?–Major factors in Texas (bet you never heard

this before) water and price or price and water

– Large percentage of TX acres rotated with cotton and the cotton and peanut price differential will definitely play a part in the decision

–Well capacity since over 98% of acres are irrigated. Marginal wells will likely go to cotton

TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Finally, we are extremely dry in Texas

right now and dry subsoil moisture conditions typically favor cotton planting

MississippiMike Howell – Mississippi State University

• What will acreage do in 2011?– MS peanut acreage is expected to decrease– We were at 18,000 acres in 2010 and am

estimating 14,000 – 14,500 acres in 2011

• What cultivars will be planted?– Georgia-06G will be on the majority of acres this

year– Interest in Florida-07 in southern MS but they

are too full season for north MS– Interest in Georgia Greener but will not have

many acres due to seed problems

MississippiMike Howell – Mississippi State University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Economics – a few growers booked

(contracted) some peanuts but the majority are seeing cotton as a more profitable crop for 2011

FloridaDr. David Wright – University of Florida

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Even at $650/ton we are expecting about a

10% reduction in acreage– That would put FL at about 130,000 acres

• What cultivars will be planted?– Georgia-06G as the dominant cultivar,

followed by Florida-07, Georgia-07W, Tifguard, and AP-4

– Several folks were going to plant Georgia Greener but germination problems changed that

FloridaDr. David Wright – University of Florida

• What cultivars will be planted?–Will see some minor acreage of Georgia

Green in the Williston area where TSWV is not a problem

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Dry weather early and weed control

problems that go along with that and Palmer amaranth

–We’ve had a lot of tillage that has already been done with the dry weather

–We need to limit tillage to conserve moisture

AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University

• What will acreage do in 2011?– Slight decrease in 2011, going from

185,000 in 2010 to around a 10% decrease to 165,000 to 170,000

– The decrease will come mainly from the newer production areas of the state that were predominantly cotton producing areas

AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University

• What cultivars will be planted?– Georgia-06G will be planted on the

majority of acres followed by Florida-07, Georgia Greener, Georgia-07W, and Tifguard

AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Economics will be a challenge for all

producers and an obstacle for some– Some producers contracted at $550/ton– This is a year when they will have to be

very mindful of their spending since inputs have been on the rise

– For instance, they didn’t even know what seed costs would be

AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Producers have seen what fuel prices have done– A lot of producers are turning their land due to

pigweed issues (which increases fuel use)– Some producers are going for thicker cover to

help block sunlight, preventing weeds from germinating

– This is a concern since this is a La Nina cycle when moisture may be critical and there is a fear of cover crops competing for moisture

GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia

• What will acreage do in 2011?– If you asked me early January, I would

have said 25-30%– Once $600/ton contract came out,

acreage may be down 20%• Could we drop near the 450,000 acre

range?

Historical (85-Year) View ofGeorgia Peanut Acreage

(1925-2010)

Year Planted Acres1966 498,0002000 494,0001967 493,0001982 475,0001926 462,000

*1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres**Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia

• What will acreage do in 2011?– If you asked me early January, I would

have said 25-30%– Once $600/ton contract came out,

acreage may be down 20%• Could we drop near the 450,000 acre range?

–Major factor is cotton prices and many acres going to cotton (1.6 million cotton acres in GA in 2011???)• $1.20 cotton = $717 peanut

Georgia Peanut Yields1950 - 2010

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Tubbshired

Georgia Peanut Yields1950 - 2010

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Release of GA-06G, FL-07,Tifguard

5-Year Average Yields in Georgia, 1971 - 2010

Years 5-Year Average Yield1971 – 1975 28501976 – 1980 28511981 – 1985 31101986 – 1990 24071991 – 1995 24881996 – 2000 26702001 – 2005 30402006 - 2010 3284

10-Year Average Yields in Georgia, 1971 - 2010

Years 10-Year Average Yield

1971 – 1980 28511981 - 1990 27591991 - 2000 25792001 - 2010 3162

Highest Average Yields in GeorgiaYear Yield

2010 35602009 35602003 34502008 34001984 33752001 33301975 32951978 32801985 32401979 32351974 32201982 32152007 31202004 2980

Highest Average Yields in GeorgiaYear Yield

2010 35602009 35602003 34502008 34001984 33752001 33301975 32951978 32801985 32401979 32351974 32201982 32152007 31202004 2980

GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia

• What cultivars will be planted?– Georgia-06G will be planted on 75-80%

of acreage– Georgia Greener and Georgia-07W are

very popular but seed supply not sufficient

– Tifguard will be in even more demand due to the loss of Temik

GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia

• What will be major challenges in 2011?–Will we receive timely rainfall – we could see

a higher percentage of peanut acreage under non-irrigated conditions

– Nematode control without Temik and insufficient seed supply of Tifguard

– Continued control of Palmer amaranth (herbicide resistant pigweed)

– Burrower bug – was it a once in a generation problem last year?

Burrower bug nymphs and adults on peanut pod

GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia

• What will be major challenges in 2011?– Potential loss of Georgia Automated

Environmental Monitoring Network (www.georgiaweather.net)

USA Planted Acreage, 2010State 2010

Planted AcresU.S. Peanut

Specialists’ Est.* 2011 Acres???

Alabama 190 - 10% 170Florida 145 - 10% 130Georgia 565 - 20% 450Mississippi 19 - 20% 15North Carolina 87 - 5% 83

South Carolina 67 0 67

Virginia 18 - ? 15New Mexico 10 - 10% 9Oklahoma 22 0 22Texas 165 - 10% 150USA 1,288 1,111***SWAG of each specialist **13.7% reduction

Historical (85-Year) View ofGeorgia Peanut Acreage

(1925-2010)

Year Planted Acres1966 498,0002000 494,0001967 493,0001982 475,0001926 462,000

*1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres**Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

USA Planted Acreage, 2009-2011?State 2010

Planted AcresU.S. Peanut

Specialists’ Est.*2011

Acres??2009

Planted AcresAlabama 190 - 10% 170 155Florida 145 - 10% 130 115Georgia 565 - 20% 450 510Mississippi 19 - 20% 15 21North Carolina 87 - 5% 83 67

South Carolina 67 0 67 50

Virginia 18 - ? 15 12New Mexico 10 - 10% 9 7Oklahoma 22 0 22 14Texas 165 - 10% 150 165USA 1,288 1,111** 1,116*SWAG of each specialist **13.7% reduction

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