Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001
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Transcript of Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001
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Peanut Situation and Outlook Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001for 2000/2001
Southern Region Agricultural Outlook ConferenceSeptember 25-27, 2000
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Peanut Situation
Crop conditions a mixed bag U.S. production on a downtrend Domestic demand slowly increasing Exports flat Stocks at burdensome level but expected to
be trimmed in 2001 Lowest prices in a decade
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Peanut Planted Acres by Region
0
500
1000
1500
2000
US Southeast Southwest VC
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U.S. Peanut Yields
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000P
ou
nd
s
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US Peanut Production
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Mil
lion
Pou
nds
Production
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US Peanut Production and Quota 1990-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00
Crop Year
Far
mer
Sto
ck E
quiv
alen
tM
illi
on T
ons
Basic Quota Effective Quota Production Food Use
Quota Plus Buybacks
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U.S. Peanut Balance Sheet
million pounds (Sept 13, 2000)
25.628.4Average Price
103512291392Ending Stocks
411641613575TOTAL USE
391496401Seed & Residual
720720562Exports
710713460Crush
229522322153Food Use
515153904967TOTAL SUPPLY
169169155Imports
375338293963Production
12291392848Beg. Stocks
2000/01 Proj.1999/00 Est.1998/99
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World Peanut Production by Country
3%
1%
35%
21%
40%
US
Argentina
India
China
Other
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World Peanut Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lion
Met
ric
Ton
s
1998 1999P 2000F
USChinaIndiaArgentinaOthers
Source: FAS, USDA
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Domestic Food Use Of Peanuts
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99F
Crop Year
FS
To
ns
Adjusted For Imports
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Edible Peanut Use by Product 1999/2000
51%
23%
26%
PeanutButter
Candy
Snack
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Domestic Peanut Use
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Mil
lion
Pou
nds
Total Candy Snacks Peanut Butter
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Use of Shelled Edible PeanutsAugust thru June
8.3
12.3
-1.6
2.8
-7.4
14.7
4.4 3.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Per
cent
Cha
nge
97/98 vs 98/99 98/99 vs 99/00
Candy Snacks PButter Total
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Government Purchases For Food and Child Nutrition Programs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 *
Crop Year
Tho
usan
d T
ons
FS
E
* Through June ‘00
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Trend in the Volume of Exports for USA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
YEAR
TH
OU
SA
ND
ME
TR
IC
TO
NS
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Major Peanut Export Destinations
29%
27%15%
12%
4%3%
10%
NetherlandsCanadaMexicoUnited KingdomSpainJapanOther
1999 Marketing Year
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Old Crop Carry-In Stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Far
mer
Sto
ck
Equ
ival
ent,
1,0
00 T
ons
Marketing Year
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U.S. Average Peanut Price
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Cen
ts /
Pou
ond
Average Price
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Price of 50% Peanut MealSoutheast Mills
0
50
100
150
200
250
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99*
Crop Year
$ P
er T
on
* Estimated
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Price of Peanut Oil, Southeast Mills
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99*
Crop Year
Cen
ts P
er P
ound
* Estimated
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Outlook for 2000-01
Prices at support level despite drought conditions
Continuation of current trends on supply and demand side– Reduction in additional peanut acreage– Increasing yields– Steady growth in demand– Global competition
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Peanut Industry Issues
Quality - aflatoxin Irrigation receiving
contracts Increased Promotion –
National Peanut Board Competitiveness in
export market Future of the Peanut
Program