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The South China Sea

Professor Carl Thayer

Background Brief

Ins9tute for Na9onal Strategic Studies,

Na9onal Defense University

Washington, DC , March 23, 2011

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Theme of Presenta9on

Why has the South China Sea

reemerged as a regionalsecurity issue?

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Sea Lines of Communica9on SLOC

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Brunei

Overlapping Territorial Claims

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Claimants Features occupied Es4mated troops

Vietnam 2122 001,000

The Philippines 8 600700

China 710 001,000

Malaysia 45 230330

Taiwan 1 500600

Brunei 0 0

South China Sea Occupa9on

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Hydrocarbons & Fisheries

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Taiwan andChina makesame claim

Chinasclaim is

based on amap

produced by

Na9onalist

Governmentin 147

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Sansha County

level City, Hainan

Island [Paracels,

Zhongsha

(MacclesfieldBank) and Spratly

Islands]

establishedNovember 2007

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2.Vietnams Mari9me

Development Strategy to 2015

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Chinese Unilateral Fishing BanMay 16-August 1, 2009

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Joint Seismic Marine Undertaking

2004

200508

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USNS Impeccable Incident March 200

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Extended Con9nental Shelf May 200

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Chinas

Response toClaims for

Extended

Con9nentalShelf

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Core Interest

U.S. officials visi9ng Beijing reported thatChina iden9fied the South China Sea as acore interest (March 2010)

Unclear which Chinese official madecomment State Councillor Dai Bingguo Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Cui Tiankai

Unclear if this represents a change in officialpolicy

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Core Interest

When the Chinese first told us at amee9ng [in China] of the Strategic and

Economic Dialogue [May 25, 2010] that

they view the South China Sea as a core

interest, I immediately responded and

said We dont agree with that.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, quoted inThe Australian, November , 2010

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MarchApril 2010East Sea and North

Sea Fleets conductmajor exercises

beyond First Island

Chain

Vietnamesefishing cra

swarm around a

Chinese fishery

vessel in Spratlys

PLAN warshipsintervene

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17th ASEAN Regional Forum

The U.S. supports the 2002 ASEANChinaDeclara9on on Conduct of Par9es inthe South China Sea. We encouragethe par9es to reach agreement on a full

code of conduct. The U.S. is preparedto facilitate ini9a9ves and confidencebuilding measures consistent with thedeclara9on.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

11 of 27 members voice concern

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17th ASEAN Regional Forum

China is a big country and othercountries are small countries, and

that is just a fact, [staring directlyat Singapores foreign minister,

George Yeo].

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi

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PLAN Naval Exercises

1. Early April 16 warships from North,East and South Sea Fleets

2. Early July 10 warships from East SeaFleet in response to USROK exercise

3. Late July largest of its kind, mostmodern ships, senior commanders

4. Early November 100 plaorms +marines

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North Sea

Fleet anchorsat Fiery Cross

Reef

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2nd USASEAN Leaders Mee9ng

oppose the use or threat of force byany claimant aemp9ng to enforce

disputed claims in the South China Sea

U.S. dra statement Dropped from official statement as well

as all references to South China Sea

White House read out

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ASEAN Defence Ministers Mee9ng Plus

South China Sea not on formal agendaor included in final statement Included in Chairmans statement

7 ministers raised South China Sea It is their problem, it is not our

problem. Rear Admiral Guan Youfei, deputy director of

the external affairs office in Chinas DefenceMinistry

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Status of the DOC

ASEANChina Joint Working Group toImplement the DOC revived

Previously considered on life support Now discussing a code of conduct for the

South China Sea

ASEANChina discussions may have beenprompted by U.S. diploma9c interven9on

Indonesia as ASEAN Chair has raised issue

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Conclusion

Posi9ve Developments

Upturn in ChinaUS rela9ons China has ceased pressure on

interna9onal oil and gas companies

US downplays another USNS Impeccableincident

Decrease in harassment of Vietnamesefishermen

Grounds for cau9ous op9mism on DOC

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Conclusion

Nega9ve Developments

China increasing capacity to enforcesovereignty claims

Con9nued development of Yulin NavalBase Con9nued lack of Chinas defence

transparency

Anxiety about decline of US primacy

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The South China Sea

Professor Carl ThayerPresenta9on to Ins9tute of Na9onal Strategic

Studies, Na9onal Defense University

Washington, DC

March 23, 2011