Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
-
Upload
carlyle-alan-thayer -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
0
Transcript of Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
1/31
T eSout C inaSea
ProfessorCarlThayer
Presentation to RAND
Washington,DCMarch25,2011
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
2/31
WhyhastheSouthChinaSeare
emergedas asecurityissue?
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
3/31
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
4/31
Claimants Featuresoccupied Estimated
troops
Vietnam 2122 9001,000
ThePhilippines 89 600700
China 710 9001 000
Malaysia 45 230330
Taiwan 1 500600
Brunei 0 0
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
5/31
ASEANDeclarationonConductof
PartiesintheSouthChinaSea
1995
02
China
ASEAN
discussions
on
South
ChinaSearesultsinDOC
Nonbinding
Geo ra hicareanotdefined
Confidencebuildingmeasuresproposed
JointWorkingGrouptoImplementDOC
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
6/31
JointSeismicMarineUndertaking
2004
200508
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
7/31
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
8/31
Sansha County
levelCit ,Hainan
Island[Paracels,
(Macclesfield
Islands]
esta is e
November2007
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
9/31
Anti
China
Student
Demonstrations
HanoiandHoChiMinhCity
on an ec.ChinasInvasionPlanPosted
onChinesewebsitesinAugust
2008
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
10/31
2.VietnamsMaritime
DevelopmentStrategyto2015
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
11/31
Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban
Ma 16-Au ust 1 2009
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
12/31
USNSImpeccableIncidentMarch2009
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
13/31
ExtendedContinentalShelfMay2009
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
14/31
Chinamake
Chinas
basedona
producedby
Government
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
15/31
ChinasResponseto
a ms or
Extended
Continental
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
16/31
ChinaidentifiedtheSouthChinaSeaasacoreinterest March2010
UnclearwhichChineseofficialmade
comment StateCouncillor DaiBingguo
AssistantMinisterofForeignAffairsCuiTiankai
Unclearifthisrepresentsachangeinofficialpolicy
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
17/31
meeting[inChina]oftheStrategicand
conom c a ogue ay , a
theyviewtheSouthChinaSeaasacoreinterest,Iimmediatelyrespondedand
saidWedontagreewiththat.
SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,quotedin
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
18/31
rd
a enc mar ocument
betweenASEANandChina.
AssignedSeniorOfficialstoresume
discussionswithChinaontheSouth
ChinaSea
ASEANForeignMinistersstatementJuly
20,2010
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
19/31
th
. .
DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea. Weencouragethepartiestoreachagreementonafullcodeofconduct. TheU.S. isprepared
buildingmeasuresconsistentwiththedeclaration.
SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton 11of27membersvoiceconcern
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
20/31
. ,
EastandSouthSeaFleets.
FleetinresponsetoUSROKexercise
3. LateJu y argesto its in ,mostmodernships,seniorcommanders
4. EarlyNovember 100platforms+marines
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
21/31
NorthSea
Fleetanchors
Reef
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
22/31
MarchApril2010
as eaan or
SeaFleetsconduct
beyondFirstIsland
Chain
Vietnamese
fishingcraftswarmarounda
Chinesefishery
PLANwarships
intervene
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
23/31
th
China
is
a
big
country
and
other
countriesaresmallcountries,and
thatisjustafact,[staringdirectly
,
GeorgeYeo].
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
24/31
st
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
25/31
nd
anyclaimantattemptingtoenforce
U.S.draftstatement
roppe romo c a s a emen aswe
asallreferencestoSouthChinaSea
WhiteHousereadout
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
26/31
orincludedinfinalstatement
7ministersraisedSouthChinaSea
,problem.
,theexternalaffairsofficeinChinasDefenceMinistry
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
27/31
ImplementtheDOCrevived
Nowdiscussingacodeofconductforthe
ASEANChinadiscussionsmayhavebeen
promptedbyU.S.diplomaticintervention IndonesiaasASEANChairhasraisedissue
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
28/31
Conclusion
PositiveDevelopments
Chinahasceasedpressureonn erna ona o an gascompan es
USdownplaysanotherUSNSImpeccableincident
DecreaseinharassmentofVietnamese
fishermen
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
29/31
Conclusion
NegativeDevelopments
Chinaincreasingcapacitytoenforcesoverei nt claims
ContinueddevelopmentofYulin Naval
ContinuedlackofChinasdefence
ransparency AnxietyaboutdeclineofUSprimacy
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
30/31
-
8/7/2019 Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?
31/31
T e
Sout
C ina
Sea
ProfessorCarlThayer
Presentation to RAND
Washington,DCMarch25,2011