Thayer China's New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea

8/3/2019 Thayer China's New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea

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Chinas New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea 555InternationalJournalofChinaStudies

Vol.2,No.3,December2011,pp.555-583

ChinasNewWaveofAggressiveAssertiveness

intheSouthChinaSea+

Carlyle A. Thayer*

UniversityofNewSouthWales

AbstractDuringthefirsthalfof2011Chinabegantoaggressivelyassertitssovereignty

claimsintheSouthChinaSeabyinterferingwiththecommercialoperations

ofPhilippineandVietnameseoilexplorationvesselsoperatingintheirEx-

clusiveEconomicZones.Chinaalsoundertooktodemonstrateitsjurisdiction

by enforcing a unilateral fishing ban and bydeploying civilianvessels in

disputedwaters.ThisstudyexaminesthedriversbehindChineseassertiveness

andhighlightstheimportanceofenergysecurityandsovereignty.Thearticle

considers indetail the impactofChineseassertiveness intheSouthChina

Sea on its bilateral relationswithMalaysia, the Philippines andVietnam,and the responses by theseclaimant states particularly inpresentations to

the Shangri-LaDialogue.The articleconcludes byexploring the utilityof

multilateraldiplomaticeffortstowardsreducingtensionsthrougharegional

codeofconduct.

Keywords: South China Sea, Chinese assertiveness, ASEAN, UNCLOS, code

of conduct

JEL classifcation:F51, F52, F59, N45

1.Introduction

In2009and2010theSouthChinaSeaemergedasapotentialregionalhotspot

asaresultofanincreaseinChineseassertivenessinpressingitssovereignty

claims.DuringthisperiodChinaimposeditsannualunilateralfishingban

withunusualvigourtargetingVietnamesefishingcraftinparticular.1Vietnam,

asChairmanoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),usedits

positiontointernationalizethisissue.TheUnitedStatesrespondedtolobbying

byVietnamandotherconcernedregionalstatesbyraisingtheSouthChinaSeaissueattheShangri-LaDialogueinSingaporeandatthe17thASEAN

IJCS 2-3 combined text 18-11-11.555 555 11/18/2011 12:43:47 AM


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556 Carlyle A. Thayer

RegionalForummeetinginHanoi.TheSouthChinaSeaquicklyemergedas

anotherirritantinSino-Americanrelations.

ByOctober2010,thetensionsthathadarisenearlierintheyearappearedtohaveabated.Chinaresumedmilitary-to-militarycontactswiththeUnited

States suspended inresponsetoarms sales toTaiwan. ChinaandASEAN

revived themoribund JointWorkingGroup to Implement theDeclaration

onConduct ofParties in the South China Sea (DOC). These and other

developmentsledtheauthortoconcludethatthereweregroundsforcautious

optimismthatsomeprogresscouldbemadeinmanagingSouthChinaSea

tensions.2ThisassessmentappearedtobeborneoutbytestimonyinApril

2011 givenbyAdmiral RobertWillard, Commander of the USPacific

Command,thatthePeoplesLiberationArmyNavy(PLAN)hadadopteda

lessaggressivestanceinthePacific.3

Eventsduringthefirsthalfof2011havewitnessedapatternofbehaviour

onthepartofChinathathasnotbeenseenbeforeandthishascontributedtoa

riseinregionaltensions.Inparticular,Chinabegantoaggressivelyinterferein

thecommercialoperationsofoilexplorationvesselsconductingseismictest-

inginwatersclaimedbythePhilippinesandVietnam.Diplomaticprotestsby

bothstateswereroutinelydismissedbyChina.Thisarticleassessesdevelop-

mentsaffectingthesecurityoftheSouthChinaSeainthefirsthalfof2011.

Followingthisintroduction,thisarticleisorganizedintosixparts.Section

2providesbackgroundtorecentdevelopments.Sections3,4and5considerChinasrelationswithMalaysia, thePhilippinesandVietnam, respectively.

Section6reviewsofficialstatementsmadebykeydefenceministersatthe

Shangri-LaDialogue.Section7offerssomeconclusions.

2.Background

TherearetwomajordriversthatexplainChinesebehaviour:sovereigntyand

hydrocarbonresources.

InMay2009ChinaprotestedsubmissionsbyMalaysiaandVietnamtotheUnitedNationsCommissiononLimitsofContinentalShelfbyofficially

submittingamapofChinasclaims.Thismapcontainedninedashlinesina

U-shapecoveringanestimatedeightypercentormoreofthemaritimeareaof

theSouthChinaSea.HavingstakeditsclaimChinabegantodemonstratethat

ithadlegaljurisdictionovertheSouthChinaSea.Chinathereforechallenged

anyandallassertionstothecontrarybythePhilippinesandVietnam.

RecentannouncementsofjointoilandgasexplorationbythePhilippines

andVietnamwereviewedinBeijingasachallengetoChinastolerance. 4For

example,inFebruary2011,ForumEnergy,anAnglo-Canadianconsortium

based intheUnitedKingdom,concludedatwo-year surveyofoilandgasresourcesintheSouthChinaSea.PresidentBenignoAquinoIIIthenawarded



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Chinas New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea 557Figure1ChinasOfficialNine-DashLineMap

Source:ChinassubmissiontotheUnitedNationsCommissionontheLimitsoftheContinentalShelf,7May2009.



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Source:VietnamNationalOilandGasGroup(PetroVietnam).

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Chinas New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea 559

ForumEnergyanexplorationcontracttoexploreforgasintheReedBank

area.5VietnamawardedServicesCorporationandCGGVeritasofFrancea

licensetoconductseismicsurveysoffitscoast.6

According toSong Enlai, chairmanofChinaNationalOffshoreOil

Corporations (CNOOC)boardof supervisors,China loosesabout twenty

million tonsof oil annually or about fortyper cent of its total offshore

productionduetotheactivitiesofcountriesintheSouthChinaSea.CNOOC

hasplanstoinvestUSthirty-onebilliondollarstodrilleighthundreddeep-

waterwellsintheEastSea,YellowSeaandSouthChinaSeawiththeaimof

producingfivehundredmilliontonsofoilby2020.

On7March 2011,Chinese ForeignMinisterYang Jiechi stated that

Chinas foreign policywould serve the countrys economic development.

China thenwarned against any oil exploration inwaters it claimed in the

SouthChinaSea.7 InearlyMay,Chinaannounced that itwould step up

maritimepatrolsbyatleasttenpercentinthefaceofincreasingincursions

intoitsterritorialwaters.Chinesemediareportedthataroundonethousand

recruits would beadded toChinasmarine service to raise the total to

10,000.8

ThatsamemonthChinalaunchedamegaoilandgas-drillingplatform

tobeusedbytheCNOOCintheSouthChinaSea.TherigfreesChinaof

dependenceon foreign-owned contractors for deep-sea drilling.The rig is

capableofexploringwatersup to3,000metres indepth, a capabilitythatneitherthePhilippinesnorVietnampossesses.9Chinesesourcesindicatedthat

therigwouldbeginoperationsin theSouthChinaSea inJulyand thereby

enableChinatoestablishamajorpresenceinthearea.

On27May,thePhilippinesDepartmentofForeignAffairssummoned

Chinese officials to convey its concern about the planned location of the

megarig.PhilippinesofficialsaskedtheChinesediplomatstheexactplanned

locationofthenewoilrigandstatedthatitshouldnotbeplacedinPhilippine

territoryorwaters.

3.China-Malaysia

InJune2009MalaysiasPrimeMinisterDatoSriNajibTunRazakpaida

statevisittoChina.InApril2011,DeputyPrimeMinisterTanSriMuhyiddin

YassinwenttoChinatoprepareforthereturnvisitofPremierWenJiabao

(whowasalsoscheduledtovisitIndonesiaatthesametime).DeputyPrime

MinisterMuhyiddinmetwithVicePremierLiKeqiangon18April.Lireiter-

atedChinaspositionthatdisputesintheSouthChinaSeashouldberesolved

onabilateralbasis.HepressedMuhyiddinforbilateraltalksontheSpratly

Islandsissue.MuhyiddinagreedandalsoofferedtorelayChinasrequestforbilateraltalkstootherASEANmembers,particularlytheclaimantstates.11



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PriortoPremierWensvisitthemediareportedthathewouldsignagree-

mentsrelatedtotelecommunicationsandinfrastructureconstructionandthat

theSpratlyissueswouldnotfigureprominently.ChinasAssistantForeignMinisterHuZhengyouobserved,forexample,TheSouthChinaSeaproblem

isanoldone.Ithinkthatwhentheleadersofbothnationsmeettheywont

deliberatelytrytoavoidit,butaswebothunderstandeachothersstance,this

wontbeamajorissue.12

AfterhisreturntoMalaysiaMuhyiddinrevealedthatoverlappingclaims

totheSouthChinaSeawouldbediscussedbetweenPrimeMinisterDatukSeri

NajibTunRazakandPremierWen.AccordingtoMuhyiddin,Malaysiais

oftheopinionthatdiscussionswithChinaontheissueofoverlappingclaims

shouldbecarriedoutafterofficialshavecomeupwithabasicframeworkon

theclaimsbasedonfacts,lawandhistory.Hefurtherstated,Webelieve

negotiationsamongtheASEANclaimantsareimportant.Buttherewillbea

casewheretheoverlappingclaimsinvolvethreecountries,sodiscussionswill

havetobemorethanbilateral.13

Before setting out on his trip, PremierWengave an interview to

MalaysianandIndonesianjournalists.Whenhewasasked,whetherChina

wouldholdtalksonjointdevelopmentinthesecontestedislandsandreefs

withMalaysia and other relevant countries that have cross claims with

China?,PremierWenreplied:

ChinaremainscommittedtotheDeclarationonConductofthePartiesinthe

SouthChinaSea.Wetakethepositionthatterritorialdisputesovermaritime

rights and interests should bepeacefully addressed and resolvedby the

countriesconcernedthroughbilateralchannels.

Wedisapproveofreferringbilateraldisputestomulti-lateralforumsbecause

thatwillonlycomplicatetheissue.Youhaverightlymentionedthatalthough

ChinaandMalaysiahavesomedisputesoverthementionedislandandreefs

intheSouthChinaSea,thesedisputeshavenotimpededoureffortstohave

peacefulco-existencebetweenthetwocountries.

Secondly,ItotallyagreethatthecountriesconcernedcanandshouldhavejointdevelopmentofresourcesintheSouthChinaSeabecausethisisinthe

interestofregionalpeaceintheareaanditalsoservesthe interestsofall

claimantcountries.14

PremierWenvisitedMalaysiafromApril27-28anddiscussionswithPrime

MinisterNajibmainlyfocusedoneconomicandeducationalissues.

4.China-Philippines

AccordingtothePhilippinesDepartmentofForeignAffairs,ChinaincreaseditspresenceandactivitiesintheSpratlyIslandsinthefourthquarterof2010.15



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This increased presence led to six or sevenmajor incursions intowaters

claimedbythePhilippinesinthefirstfivemonthsof2011.16ThePhilippines

has not yet officiallyreleased the list but from statements bygovernmentofficialsthefollowinglistappearsindicative:

Incident 1. On 25 February, three Philippines fishing vessels, F/VJaime

DLS,F/VMama Lydia DLSandF/VMaricris 12,were operating in

thewatersoffJacksonAtollonehundredandfortynauticalmileswest

ofPalawan.AccordingtoareportpreparedbytheArmedForcesofthe

Philippines(AFP),thefishingvesselswereapproachedbyaJianghu-V

Classmissile frigate,Dongguan 560,whichbroadcast over itsmarine

band radio, This isChineseWarship 560.You are in the Chinese

territory.Leavetheareaimmediately.Thenthefrigaterepeatedlybroad-cast,Iwillshootyou.17Asthefishingvesselsbegantowithdraw,the

Chinese frigate fired three shots that landed 0.3 nauticalmiles (556

meters) fromF/VMaricris12.TheF/VMaricris12lefttheareabut

thenreturnedthreedayslatertorecoveritsanchorthatitcutinitshasty

departure.TheF/VMaricris 12 spotted threeChinese fishing vessels

exploitingmarine resources in thearea.The Philippine government

reportedlydid not filea protestwith the ChineseEmbassy over this

incident.18TheChineseAmbassadortothePhilippines,LiuJianchaolater

deniedthatanyChinesevesselhadfiredonFilipinofishermen.19 Incident 2. On 2 March, two Chinese white-painted patrol boats, No. 71

andNo.75,orderedMVVeritas Voyager,aForumEnergyPlcsurvey

vessel operating in the ReedBank area offPalawan Island, to leave

and twicemanoeuvredcloseinwhatappearedathreat toramtheMV

Veritas Voyager.20ThesurveyshipwasFrench-ownedandregisteredin

Singapore.

The Philippines respondedbydispatching twoOV-10 aircraft to in-

vestigate.The Chinese boats departed without further incident. Foreign

AffairsUndersecretaryErlindaBasiliolodgedaprotestwithChineseCharge

dAffairs,BaiTian,on4March.Accordingtoonereportthenoteraisedfour

pointstoprovethatReedBankisnotpartofthedisputedareabyprojecting

eighty-fivenauticalmilesfromthebasepointinthenorthernpartofPalawan

andnotfromtheKalayaanIslandGroup(KIG).Chinaquestionedthisduring

ameetingwiththePhilippines,butdidnotreplyinadiplomaticnote. 21

Aftertheincident,thePhilippinesannouncedatemporaryhalttoseismic

testingandorderedthePhilippineNavyandPhilippinesCoastGuardtoescort

thesurveyshipwhentestingresumed.22Later,PresidentAquinoinstructed

thePhilippineCoastGuardtoprovidesecurityfor oil andgas explorationactivitiesintheKIG.23



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On5April, the PhilippineMission to theUnitedNations submitted a

letterinresponsetoChinasNotesVerbalesof7May2009(CML/17/2009

andCML/18/2009)restatingthePhilippinesclaimtosovereigntyovertheKalayaan IslandGroup,adjacentwaters andgeological features (relevant

waters, seabed and subsoil).24 China respondedon14Aprilwith aNote

VerbaletotheUnitedNationsthataccusedthePhilippinesofinvadingand

occupyingsomeislandsandreefsofChinasNanshaIslandsTheRepublic

ofthePhilippinesoccupationofsomeislandsandreefsofChinasNansha

islandsaswellasotherrelatedactsconstitutesaninfringementuponChinas

territorialsovereignty.25TheChineseNoteVerbalealsoarguedthatonthe

basis ofdomestic legislationChinasNansha Islands is fully entitled to

TerritorialSea,EEZ[ExclusiveEconomicZone]andContinentalShelf.26

Incident 3. On 6 May, a Chinese marine vessel with a flat bed was sighted

inAbadSantos(Bombay)Shoal.27

Incident 4. On 19 May, the AFP claimed that two Chinese jet fighters

allegedlyflewintoPhilippinesairspacenearPalawanon11May.This

initialreportwasneverconfirmedandappearstheleastsubstantiatedof

thesixorsevenincidentsofreportedChineseincursions.28

Incident 5. On 21 May, Chinese Marine Surveillance ship No. 75 and

Salvage/ResearchShipNo.707wereobservedheadingtowardSouthern

Bank.29

Incident 6. On 24 May, Filipino fishermen reportedly witnessed a China

MaritimeSurveillancevesselandPeoplesLiberationArmyNavy(PLAN)

shipsunloading steelposts,buildingmaterials and abuoy nearLikas

andPatagislands,nearIroquoisReef-AmyDouglasBankonehundred

nauticalmilesoffPalawan.30Thefishermenreportedtheirsightingtothe

AFPthenextday.NavyHeadquartersinManilaorderedashiptoverify

thesightingbutbadweatherdelayeditsarrivaluntil29Maybywhich

timetheChineseshipshaddeparted.Localfishermenremovedthesteel

pollsandhandedthemovertoauthorities.

TheAFPreportedthisincidenton27May.FourdayslatertheDepartment

ofForeignAffairs summoned theChineseCharge dAffaires to seek a

clarificationof the incident.On1 June the Philippinesconveyedserious

concernsinaNoteVerbaletotheChineseEmbassy.Thenotestated,These

shipsreportedlyunloadedbuildingmaterials,erectedanundeterminednumber

ofposts,andplacedabuoynearthebreakeroftheIroquoisBank.31The

ChineseEmbassyresponded,ThereportedincursionofChineseshipsis

nottrueItsonlyChinasmarineresearchshipconductingnormalmaritime

researchactivitiesintheSouthChinaSea.32SpeakingonaTVforumthat

sameday,DefenseSecretaryVoltaireGazminobserved,Itsalarminginthesensethattheintrusionsareincreasing.Theyarestakingclaimontheareas



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wherewedonothaveapresence.Theywanttohoisttheirflagsotheycan

claimthearea.33ForeignAffairsSecretaryAlbertdelRosariochargedthat

anynewconstructionbyChinainthevicinityoftheuninhabitedIroquoisBankisaclearviolationofthe2002AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

(ASEAN)-ChinaDeclarationontheConductofParties(DOC)intheSouth

ChinaSea.34

During2011,PresidentAquinolobbiedhisASEANcolleaguestounite

asabloconadetailedcodeofconductandproposedthataunifiedposition

ontheSouthChinaSeadisputeamongtheASEANclaimantstateswasthe

bestwaytoapproachChina.

On8March,PresidentAquinopaidanofficialvisittoIndonesiawherehe

metwithPresidentBambangSusiloYudhoyono.Atajointpressconference

after their talks, PresidentAquinoexpressed his support for Indonesias

leadership role asASEANChair. PresidentYudhoyono said Indonesia as

ASEANChairwouldbring the Spratly Islands issue to the forthcoming

ASEANSummitandEastAsiaSummit.PresidentYudhoyonoexpressedhis

hopethattheSouthChinaSeacouldbecomeazoneofpossibleeconomic

cooperation.PresidentAquino replied, Withregard to joint exploration

[inthearea], thatisanideathathasbeenproposeda fewdecadespastbut

perhapsweshouldcontinuethetalkswithotherclaimantcountries.Thereis

noroomforunilateralactioninthatparticularregion.35

On1June,PresidentAquinopaidanofficialvisittoBruneiDarussalamfor discussionswith SultanHassanalBolkiah.According toPresidential

CommunicationsOperationsSecretaryHerminioColomaJr.,thetwoleaders

expressed theirdesire tomaintain peaceandstability in theSouthChina

SeathroughamultilateraldialogueamongtheASEANcountries,claimant

countries andChina.Clomaquoted theSultanasstatingitsbest tohave

goodrelationswithChina.36

PresidentAquino told the reporters coveringhis visit: We govern

ourselvesthere[SpratlyIslands/KIG].Insteadofonecountryhasabilateral

agreementwithChinaandtheotherhasadifferentbilateralagreementwith

China.Letscometogetherasabody.Whydowehavetofightorincreaseall

ofthesetensionswhenitprofitsnobody?37Aquinoalsorenewedhiscallfor

theimmediateadoptionoftheimplementingguidelinesontheDOC.38The

followingday,12June,EduardoMalaya,aspokespersonfortheDepartment

ofForeignAffairs, called for amorebindingCodeofConductofParties

in the SouthChinaSea inresponsetoChinese intrusions intoPhilippine

waters.

During his statevisit toBrunei PresidentAquino revealed that the

Philippineswas preparing to file a complaint to the United Nations in

responsetoChineseintrusionsintoitsterritory.AccordingtoAquino,WearecompletingthedataonaboutsixtoseveninstancessinceFebruary.We



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willpresentitto[China]andthenbringthesetotheappropriatebody,which

normallyistheUnitedNations. 39TheAquinoAdministrationissupporting

twolegislativemeasuresinresponsetoChinasassertivenessintheSpratlyIslands.TheHouseofRepresentativeisdrawingupthePhilippineMaritime

ZonesbilltodelineatethePhilippinesmaritimezones,whiletheSenateis

consideringtheArchipelagicSeaLanesbill.40

On 28March,General EduardoOban,chief of theArmedForcesof

thePhilippines,announcedthatthePhilippineshadincreasedairandnaval

patrolsintheSouthChinaSeaandhadplanstoupgradeRancudoAirFieldon

Pag-Asa(Thitu)islandandrepairbarracks.41TheAFPwasallocatedUSone

hundredandeighty-threemilliondollarsinfundsfromtheCapabilityUpgrade

Program to purchase twooffshore fast patrol boats, long-rangemaritime

aircraft, surveillanceand communicationequipment includingair defence

radartobetterprotectitsterritory. 42PresidentAquinohadearlierreleasedUS

twohundredandfifty-fivemilliondollarstothearmedforces.

ThePhilippinesrecentlyacquiredtheUSCoastGuardCutterUSCGC

Hamilton,which isexpected toenter service during2011 and then com-

mencepatrollingdisputedwatersintheSouthChinaSea.43ThePhilippines

also expects to take delivery of three newTaiwan-manufacturedMulti-

PurposeAttack Craft in2012.44 InMay, aPhilippine navy study recom-

mendedtheacquisitionofsubmarinesasadeterrentagainstfuturepotential

conflicts.45The Philippinesdefence andmilitary agencies are drawing upa new

defencestrategyinresponsetodevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea.The

newstrategywouldfocusonbothinternalsecurityoperationsandexternal

territorialdefence.AFPchiefGeneralObansaidthemilitarywasplanningto

setupacoastwatchsystemonthewesternseaboardinthenexttwotothree

years tomonitorandsecuremaritime bordersandnatural resources.46In

June,itwasreportedthatthePhilippinesEmbassyinWashingtonwasinthe

marketforexcessdefenceequipmentfromtheUSunderitsForeignMilitary

Sales(FMS)programmeincludingoneormorepatrolships.47ThePhilippines

alsoannouncedanewUStrainingprogrammeforitsnavalforcestoenable

themtobettercarryouttheirmissionofprovidingsecurityforoilexploration

activitiesintheSouthChinaSea.48

On14May,PresidentAquinoandseveralmembersofhisCabinetflew

outtotheUSSCarl VinsonaircraftcarrierintheSouthChinaSeaasitheaded

towards the Philippines.The aircraft carriermadearoutineport calland

goodwillvisitaccompaniedbytheUSSBunker Hill,USSShilohandUSS

Gridley.49Infact,thevisitbythecarrierwasareaffirmationofthealliance

relationship on the eve of anofficial visit byChinasDefenceMinister

GeneralLiangGuanglie.LiangpaidanofficialvisittothePhilippinesfrom21-25MayfordiscussionswithhiscounterpartDefenseSecretaryVoltaire



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Gazmin.Thetwoministersagreedtoholdregulardiscussionstopromotetrust

andconfidenceandfindcommongroundonterritorialdisputesintheSpratly

Islands.Ajointstatementdeclared,bothministersexpressedhopethattheimplementingguidelinesofthe2002DeclarationofConductwouldsoonbe

finalizedandagreedupon,thatresponsiblebehaviorofallpartiesintheSouth

ChinaSeaissuewouldhelpkeeptheareastablewhileallpartiesworkforthe

peacefulresolutionBothministersrecognizedthatunilateralactionswhich

couldcausealarmshouldbeavoided.50

WhenDefenceMinisterLiangmetwithPresidentAquinoSouthChina

Seaissueswerediscussedingeneral,butthelatterrefrainedfromdirectly

mentioning theReedBank incidentand the reported intrusion ofChinese

aircraftintoPhilippineairspace.51PresidentAquinoalsotoldGeneralLiang

thatmoremaritimeincidentsindisputedareasoftheSouthChinaSeacould

sparka regionalarms race.52 Immediatelyafter the defenceministersmet

SunYi,DeputyChiefofPoliticalSectionattheChineseEmbassyinManila,

announcedthatChinalookedforwardtoanaccelerateddialoguewiththe

Philippines toresolve the dispute in the SouthChinaSea. Its abilateral

issue.Werepeatedlysaidthatandwebelieveitsabilateralissue,SunYi

stated.53

On4June,theDepartmentofForeignAffairsissuedastatementrevealing

ithadlodgedaprotestwiththeChineseEmbassytwodaysearlieroverthe

increasingpresenceandactivitiesofChinesevesselsincludingnavalassetsin theWestPhilippines Sea (SouthChina Sea).The note stated,These

actionsofChinesevesselshamperthenormalandlegitimatefishingactivities

oftheFilipinofishermenintheareaandunderminesthepeaceandstability

oftheregion.54

China responded on7 Junewith a statement by ForeignMinistry

spokesperson,HongLei: Chinesevesselswere cruisingand carryingout

scientificstudiesinwatersunderChinasjurisdictionandtheiractivitieswere

inlinewiththelawChinaasksthePhilippinesidetostopharmingChinas

sovereigntyandmaritimerightsandinterests,whichleadstounilateralactions

thatexpandandcomplicateSouthChinaSeadisputes.ThePhilippinesshould

stoppublishingirresponsiblestatementsthatdonotmatchthefacts.55

LiuJianchao, ChineseAmbassador to thePhilippines, responded to

complaintsbythePhilippinesgovernmentforthefirsttimewhenhemetwith

reportersinManilaon9June.TheambassadorstatedthatChinahadnotyet

startedtodrillforoilintheSpratlyIslands.Werecallingonotherpartiesto

stopsearchingforthepossibilityofexploitingresourcesintheseareaswhere

Chinahasitsclaims.56InresponsetoaquestionhowChinawouldreactif

countrieswentaheadandcontinuedtoexplorewithoutBeijingspermission,

theambassadorsaidChinawouldusediplomaticmeanstoassertitsrights.Wewillneveruseforceunlessweareattacked,hesaid.Liangalsocon-



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firmedtoreportersthatChineseforcestookactiontokeeptheexploration

vesselfromReedBank.Thatspartofourexerciseofjurisdiction.Itsnot

harassment,heclaimed.57

In response toChinese assertiveness, PresidentAquino launched a

newinitiativecallingfortheSouthChinaSeatobecomeaZoneofPeace,

Freedom, Friendship andCooperation (ZOPFF/C).Aquino explained

whatisourisours,andwithwhatisdisputed,wecanworktowardsjoint

cooperation.58HedirectedtheDepartmentofForeignAffairstopromotethe

ZOPFF/Cconceptthroughsustainedconsultationsanddialogue.

AccordingtotheDepartmentofForeignAffairs,theZOPFF/Cprovides

a framework for separating thedisputed territorial features thatmay be

consideredforcollaborativeactivitiesfromnon-disputedwatersintheWest

PhilippinesSea(SouthChinaSea)inaccordancewithinternationallawingeneralandUNCLOSinparticular.59Adisputedareacouldbeturnedintoa

JointCooperationAreaforjointdevelopmentandtheestablishmentofmarine

protected area for biodiversity conservation.Areas not indispute, such as

ReedBankthatliesonthePhilippinescontinentalshelf,canbedeveloped

exclusively by the Philippinesorwith theassistance of foreign investors

invitedtoparticipateinitsdevelopment.

5.China-Vietnam

InDecember 2008,ChinaandVietnam agreed to commence bilateral

discussionsonmaritimeissueswithfirstprioritygiventodevelopingasetof

fundamentalguidingprinciplesasaframeworkforsettlingspecificissues.

Theseconfidentialdiscussionsbeganinearly2010andfivesessionswereheld

duringtheyear.AccordingtoVietnameseForeignMinistrysources,Vietnam

andChinaagreedtosettletheirdifferencesthroughpeacefulnegotiation

andrefrainfromanyactiontocomplicatethesituation,violenceorthreatof

useofviolence.60

Significantly,VietnamandChina agreed to bilateral discussions on

mattersthatdidnotaffectthirdparties,suchasthewatersat themouthoftheGulfofTonkin.VietnamwantedtoincludetheParacelIslandsinbilateral

discussionbutChinarefused.VietnamandChinaalsodifferedonthequestion

ofmultilateralnegotiations.AccordingtoVietnam:

IssuesthatarerelatedtoothercountriesandpartiesliketheSpratlyIslands

cannotbesettledbyVietnamandChina;theyrequiretheparticipationof

other concernedparties. For issues that arenotonly related tocountries

thatbordertheEastSeasuchasmaritimesafetyandsecurity,theymustbe

negotiatedandsettledbyallcountriesthatsharethiscommoninterest. 61

ChinaandVietnamheldtwofurtherworking-levelroundsofdiscussions.AttheseventhandmostrecentroundonAugust1,aVietnamesespokesperson



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notedthatthetwosidesreachedpreliminaryconsensusonsomeprinciples

andthattheeighthroundofdiscussionwouldbeheldlaterintheyear.62

During the eightmonths of2011,ChinaandVietnam exchanged fivehigh-level visits. In February 2011, immediately after EleventhNational

Congress of theVietnamCommunist Party, thenew Secretary General,

NguyenPhuTrong,dispatchedaspecialenvoy,HoangBinhQuan,toBeijing.

QuanmetwithHuJintao,President andGeneralSecretary oftheChinese

CommunistParty,andbriefedhimontheoutcomeofthepartycongress.Quan

alsoextendedaninvitationtoHuandotherChinesepartyandstateleadersto

visitVietnam.Inreturn,HuextendedaninvitationtoSecretaryGeneralTrong

tovisitChina.63IndeferencetoChina,TrongwillvisitBeijingfirst.

InApril,Senior LieutenantGeneralGuo Boxiong, vice chairmanof

ChinasCentralMilitaryCommission, visited Hanoi at the invitation of

GeneralPhungQuangThanh,MinisterofNationalDefence.Lt.Gen.Guo

wasalsoreceivedbyPrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungandpartySecretary

GeneralNguyenPhuTrong.PrimeMinisterDungproposedthetwosides

talk and seek fundamentaland long-lastingmeasures that both sidesare

abletoacceptfortheEastSea[SouthChinaSea]issue64Thejointpress

communiquissuedaftertheconclusionofGuosvisitoutlinedanumberof

cooperativemilitaryactivities,includingincreasingthescopeofjointnaval

patrolsintheGulfofTonkin,butnomentionwasmadeoftheSouthChina

Sea.65ImmediatelyafterGeneralGuosvisit,Vietnamhostedameetingofthe

headsofthegovernmentdelegationsonboundarynegotiationsbetweenChina

andVietnam(18-19April).Thesediscussionswereheldatdeputyminister

level.ChinasForeignMinistryreportedthatthetwoviceministerspledged,

toproperly handlemaritime disputes through friendly consultations and

exploresolutionswithapositiveandconstructiveattitude.66AVietnamese

spokespersonrevealedthatthetwosidesagreedtheywillsignanagreement

onthefundamentalguidelinestosettlethemaritimeissuesbutnegotiations

arestillcontinuingandnodatehasbeensettosigntheagreement. 67

Thefourthhigh-levelmeetingtookplaceinSingaporeinJuneonthe

sidelines of the Shangri-laDialogue and involved the two defenceminis-

ters,LiangGuanglie and PhungQuangThanh.Thismeeting took place

under the shadow of the 26May cable-cutting incident.MinisterThanh

expressed the concernofVietnamesepartyandstateleadersoverwhathe

termed a pressing incident and then offered the conciliatory comment

thatSometime,regrettablecaseshappenwhicharebeyondtheexpectation

ofbothsides.68MinisterLiangrepliedthatChinadidnotwantasimilar

incident tooccur in the future.He noted inparticular that the Peoples

LiberationArmywasnotinvolvedintheincident.Fourdayslaterasecondcable-cuttingincidentoccurred.



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InJune,Vietnamdispatcheda secondspecialenvoytoBeijing,Deputy

Minister of ForeignAffairs HoXuanSonwhomet withhis counterpart,

ZhangZjijun.AjointpressreleaseissuedattheconclusionoftheirtalksonJune25stated,interalia,thetwosideslaidstressontheneedtosteerpublic

opinionalongthecorrectdirection,avoidingcommentsanddeedsthatharm

friendshipandtrust69

On11May,theHaikouMunicipalGovernment,Hainanprovince,issued

anannouncementimposingChinasannualunilateralfishingbanintheSouth

ChinaSeafrom16May1Augustostensiblytoprotectdwindlingfishstocks

during thespawningseason.Vietnam immediately issuedaverbalprotest:

ChinasunilateralexecutionofafishingbanintheEastSeaisaviolation

ofVietnamssovereigntyovertheHoangSa[Paracel]archipelago,aswell

as thecountrys sovereignty and jurisdiction over itsexclusive economic

zoneandcontinentalshelf 70Vietnamalsoprotestedthedeploymentofa

ChineseFisheryAdministrationVessel,Leizhou44261,topatrolinthewaters

aroundtheParacelIslandsfrom5-25May.Vietnamaccusedthepatrolboat

ofcausingdifficultiesfornormalfishingactivitiesconducedbyVietnamese

fishermenintheirtraditionalfishinggroundandmakingthesituationatsea

morecomplicated.71

VietnameselocalauthoritiesreportedthearrivalofChinesefishingboats

inVietnamesewatersingreaternumbersthatinthepast.TheheadofPhu

YenProvinceBorderGuardHeadquartersstated that, everydaybetweenonehundredandtwentyandonehundredandfiftyfishingboatsofChina

wereoperatedwithinwatersfromDaNangCitytotheTruongSa[Spratly]

ArchipelagoPreviouslyChinesefishingboatshaveviolatedourwaters,but

thiswasthefirsttimethereweresomanyboats.72Thenumbersreportedly

rosetotwohundredonsomeoccasions.Vietnamesefishermenformedfishing

teamsoffivetotenboatsforprotectionbecauseofintimidationfromlarger

Chinesecraftthatsometimesusedweaponstothreatenthem.TheVietnamese

governmentiscurrentlyconsideringaproposalbytheMinistryofAgriculture

and RuralDevelopment tobuild ten fishery patrol boats at a totalcost

estimatedatUSonehundredandtwomilliondollars.

AlthoughVietnamesefishermenvowedtodefythebantheVietnamese

presshasnotreportedanymajorincidentsofharassmentordetention.73On

1June,however,itwasreportedthatChinesemilitaryvesselsthreatenedto

usetheirgunsagainstaVietnamesefishingboatoperatinginwatersnearthe

Spratly archipelago.74Amore serious incident took placeon July 5when

armedChinese naval troops reportedly beat the skipper ofaVietnamese

fishingboat,threatenedthecrew,andthenforcedtheboattoleavecontested

watersneartheParacalIslands.75

On26May,threeChinaMaritimeSurveillanceshipsaccostedtheBinhMinh 02, aVietnamese seismicsurvey shipoperating inBlock148, inan



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incidentthatlastedthreehours.ChinaMaritimeSurveillanceshipNo.84cut

acabletowingseismicmonitoringequipment.76ThenextdayVietnamlodged

adiplomaticprotestwithChinasAmbassadorclaimingthattheactionsoftheChinaMaritimeSurveillanceshipsviolatedinternationallawandVietnams

sovereignty.77Vietnamalso sought compensation for thedamagecaused.

TheBinh Minh 02returnedtoportforrepairsandresumeditsoilexploration

activitiesaccompaniedbyanescortofeightships.78

Somenewsmediaerroneouslyreportedthatthiswasthefirstinstance

inwhichtheChinesehadcutthecableofaVietnameseexplorationvessel.

AccordingtoDoVanHau,aseniorPetroVietnamofficial,Whenweconduct

seismicsurveyanddrillingoperations,the[China]haveaeroplanesflyingover

tosurveyouractivities,theyharassuswiththeirvessels,andinextremecases

theycutour[exploration]cables.79TheVietnamesepressreportedthatwhen

Vietnameseconducedcontinentalshelfsurveysin2008,Chinesevesselsalso

cutVietnameseshipssurveycablesandfurtherobstructedVietNamfrom

conductingoilandgasexplorationintheEastSea80

China responded toVietnams proteston 28Maywith the following

statement:WhatrelevantChinesedepartmentsdidwascompletelynormal

marinelaw-enforcementandsurveillanceactivitiesinChinasjurisdictional

area.81Vietnam retortedon29May, the areawhereVietnam conducted

explorationactivities situatesentirely in the exclusive economiczone and

the two hundrednauticalmile continentalshelfofVietnam inaccordancewiththe1982UnitedNationsConventiononLawoftheSea.Itisneithera

disputedareanorisitanareamanagedbyChina.Chinahasdeliberately

misledthepublicintothinkingthatitisadisputedarea. 82Chinaresponded

inkind:the law enforcementactivitiesbyChinesemaritimesurveillance

shipsagainstVietnamsillegallyoperatingshipsarecompletelyjustified.We

urgeVietnam to immediatelystopinfringementactivities andrefrainfrom

creatingnewtroubles.83

On9June,accordingtoVietnamsMinistryofForeignAffairs,asecond

premeditatedand carefully calculated incident occurredwhenChinese

fishingboatNo. 62226equippedwitha cablecuttingdevicesnared the

cableoftheViking IIseismicsurveyshipoperatinginsurveyBlock136-03in

thevicinityofVanguardBank(TuChinh).84Viking IIisregisteredinNorway

andwasoperatingundercharterwithPetroVietnam.85TwoChinaMaritime

SurveillanceshipsandotherChinesefishingcraftcametoassistthedistressed

fishingboat.AccordingtoNguyenPhuongNga,theofficialForeignMinistry

spokesperson,Chinassystematicactswereaimedatturninganundisputed

regionintooneofdispute,tocarryoutitsambitiontomakeChinasnine-dash

lineclaimareality.86

EarliertheViking IIhadbeeninvolvedinseparateincidentson29Mayand31May inwhichChineseboats theFei Sheng No. 16andVessel



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No.B12549 attempted toapproach its reardeck and interferewith its

operations. Security escortswith theViking II successfullyblocked their

approaches.87

Chinese authoritiesclaimed that theViking II incidentoccurredwhen

armedVietnamese ships chasedChinese fishing boats from theWan-an

(Vanguard)Bank.OneoftheChineseboatsbecameentangledinthecableof

theViking IIshipoperatinginthesamearea.TheChineseboatwasdragged

formorethananhourbeforetheentanglednetcouldbecut.Accordingtothe

ChineseForeignMinistryspokesperson,HongLei,TheVietnameseshipput

thelivesandsafetyoftheChinesefishermeninseriousdanger.Vietnamese

ForeignMinistryofficials lodgeda protestwithChinese Embassyon the

afternoonoftheincidentandannouncedthattheVietnamNationalOiland

GasGroupwouldbeseekingcompensationfordamages.88

On 9 June,PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDung responded togrowing

domesticpressure bymaking anunusually strong statement indefence of

national sovereignty.Dung said: We continue to affirm stronglyand to

manifestthestrongestdeterminationofalltheParty,ofallthepeopleandof

allthearmyinprotectingVietnamesesovereigntyinmaritimezonesofthe

country.Dungalsoreaffirmedtheincontestablemaritimesovereigntyof

Vietnamtowardsthetwoarchipelagos,theParacelandSpratlys.89Onthe

sameday, PresidentNguyenMinhTriet,visitingCoTo island offQuang

NinhprovinceneartheChinaborder,statedthatVietnamwasdeterminedtoprotectitsislandsandwearereadytosacrificeeverythingtoprotectour

homeland,ourseaandislandsovereignty.90

On9 June, after the ChineseAmbassador to the Philippines called

onVietnam and the Philippines to ceaseoil explorationand after China

announced itwouldbeconducting routine navalexercises in theWestern

Pacific,91 Vietnam raised the stakes byannouncing a live-fire exercise.

VietnamsNorthernMaritimeSafetyCorporationissuedanoticethattwolive

firingexerciseswouldbeheldon13JuneinthewatersnearHonOngIsland.

Theexerciseswouldlastforatotalofninehoursandbeconductedduringthe

periodeightam-noonandsevenpm-midnightlocaltime.Thenoticefurther

declared,Allvesselsaretorefrainfromengaginginactivitiesinthearea

duringthelive-fireperiod.92HonOngIslandislocatedapproximatelyforty

kilometresoffQuangNamprovinceincentralVietnam.

VietnamsForeignMinistrycharacterizedthelive-firingexercisesasa

routineannual trainingactivityoftheVietnamnavy inthe areawherethe

Vietnamnavyregularlyconductstraining[activities]thatareprogrammedand

plannedannuallyforunitsoftheVietnamPeoplesNavy.93Vietnamdidnot

specifyhowmanyshipswouldbeinvolved.Thefirstphaseoftheexercise

involvedcoastal artillerywhile the second part of the exercise involvedmissilecorvettesfiringtheirdeckgun.



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On11June,theGlobal Times,anEnglish-languagenewspaperpublished

bytheChineseCommunistParty,editorializedthatVietnamsconductofa

live-firingexerciseswasthelowestformofnationalismtocreateanewen-mitybetweenthepeopleofthetwocountries.Hanoiseemstobelookingto

dissipatedomesticpressureandbuckupmoraleathome,whileatthesame

timefurtherdrawingintheconcernofinternationalsocietyovertheSouth

ChinaSeadispute.94The editorial stated thatChinahas never sought to

politicallyblackmailsmallercountries.Butwhenasmallcountryturnsthat

aroundandtriestoblackmailChina,theChinesepeoplewillontheonehand

feelratherangry,whileontheotherhandfinditquiteamusing.Inconclu-

sion,theeditorialopinedIfVietnaminsistsonmakingtrouble,thinkingthat

themoretroubleitmakes,themorebenefitsitgains,thenwetrulywishto

remindthoseinVietnamwhodeterminepolicytopleasereadyourhistory.

Chinas newwave of aggressive assertiveness provoked a patriotic

responseamongstudentsandawidersectionoftheVietnamesecommunity.

UsingFacebook and other social networking site theymounted eleven

anti-China demonstrations inHanoicommencingSunday 5 Junewhen an

estimated three hundredVietnamese gathered near theChineseEmbassy,

Onthesamedayacrowdestimatedatnearly1,000toseveralthousand

gatheredinHoChiMinhCity.95Onthefollowingweekend,12June,two

hundred demonstrators took to thestreets ofHanoiwhile another three

hundredmarchedinHoChiMinhCityinarepeatofthepreviousweekendsprotests.96The protestorsheldplacardsreadingDownwithChina,The

Spratlys andParacelsbelong toVietnamandStopViolatingVietnams

Territory.Police interventionprevented a third demonstrationfrombeing

heldinHoChiMinhCitywhilepeacefuldemonstrationscontinuedinHanoi

ontheweekendsof19and26June.Onthefollowingtwoweekendsthepolice

intervenedandbrokeupthedemonstrationsbydetainingprotestersnodoubt

followinggovernmentinstructionstofulfilVietnamscommitmenttoChina

tosteerpublicopinion.NodemonstrationsoccurredonSunday31July.

Despitepoliceinterventiontheanti-Chinaprotestscontinuedthereafterbut

withreducednumbers.On18AugusttheHanoiPeoplesCommitteeissued

adirectiveorderingahalttopublicdemonstrations,whenacrowdofnearly

fiftyprotestersdefiedthisbanonthefollowingweekend,thepoliceintervened

onceagainanddetainedfifteenactivists.97

During earlyJune,growingenmity betweennationalists inChinaand

Vietnam spilledover into cyberspace.According toNguyenMinhDuc,

directorof the BachKhoa Internetwork SecurityCentre,more than two

hundredVietnamesewebsitesweresubjecttocyberattacks.Amongthesites

affectedwerethoseoftheministriesofAgricultureandRuralDevelopment

andForeignAffairswherehackerssucceededinpostingChineseflagsandslogans.98



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6.Shangri-LaDialogue

ManyofthemajorincidentsintheSouthChinaSeainthefirsthalfof2011

occurredprior to the annualmeetingof the Shangri-LaDialogueheld inSingaporefrom3-5June.DefenceMinistersraisedSouthChinaSeaterritorial

disputesinallplenarysessionsatthedialogue.MalaysiasPrimeMinister

DatoSriNajibTunRazak,whogavetheopeningkeynoteaddress,offered

theupbeatassessmentthatASEANandChinawillsoonbeabletoagreeon

amorebindingcodeofconducttoreplacethe2002DeclarationonConductin

theSouthChinaSeaandthatoverlappingclaimsintheSouthChinaSea

havegenerally beenmanagedwith remarkable restraint.He thenoffered

thisinsightintoMalaysiaspolicy:Iremainfullycommittedtothecommon

ASEANpositionintermsofourengagementwithChinaontheSouthChinaSea, I amequally determined toensureour bilateral relationship remains

unaffectedand,infact,continuestogofromstrengthtostrength.99

USSecretaryofDefenseRobertGates,whilenotmentioningtheSouth

ChinaSea specifically, stated thewell-known position that theUShada

nationalinterestinfreedomofnavigationHealsostressedtheimportance

of customary international lawas aguide for the appropriate use of the

maritimedomain, and rights ofaccess to it.100 ChinasDefenceMinister

putonrecordhiscountryscommitmenttomaintainingpeaceandstability

inSouthChinaSea.Henotedthat,atpresent,thegeneralsituationintheSouthChinaSearemainsstable.101

Incontrast,VietnamsDefenceMinisterspokeindetailaboutthelegal

basisforactivitiesatseatofacilitatecooperationfordevelopmentanddeter

actionsthatriskourcommoninterests,regionallyandnationally.Minister

ThanhspecificallyraisedtheBinh Minh 02cable-cuttingincidentthathad

raised considerableconcern on themaintenanceofpeaceand stability in

theEastSea.Heendedhisremarksonthisincidentwiththesewords:We

trulyexpectnorepetitionofsimilarincidents.102Fourdayslaterasecond

cable-cuttingincidentoccurreddespiteGeneralLiangsprivateremarkscited

above.

The PhilippineSecretary ofNationalDefence,Voltaire Gazmin, re-

portedlywatereddowncommentson theSouthChinaSea inhisdrafttext

beforedelivery.103Hisaddressbeganbydeclaringthat,maritimesecurityis

oneofourforemostconcerns.Inanobviousreferencetothe2MarchReed

Bank incidentGazmin stated that the actions by other states make the

Philippinesworryandconcerned.Theseactionsnecessarilycreateinsecurity

notonlytothegovernmentbutmoredisturbinglytoordinarycitizenswho

depend on themaritimeenvironment for their livelihood. He then gave

detailsof recent incidents involvingChinese vesselswithoutmentioningChinabyname.104



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Malaysias DefenceMinisterDatuk Seri DrAhmadZahidHamidi

drewattention todisputesin theSouthChinaSeageopolitics,SeaLines

ofCommunication,securityandcompetitionoverpetroleumresources.Hearguedthatthe2002DOCneededtobesupportedbyactualactivitiesthat

canpromoteconfidencebuildingamongtheclaimantsandsuggestedthat

claimant countries in the SouthChinaSeawork towards identifyingand

realizingactualconfidence-building(CBM)activitiesthatwouldhelpalleviate

someofthetensioninthearea.105

7.Conclusion

ChinasaggressiveassertionofsovereigntyovertheSouthChinaSeainthe

firsthalfof2001has raised the security stakes for SoutheastAsianstates

andallmaritimepowersthatsailthroughthesewaters.Ensuringthesecurity

oftheSouthChinaSeaisnowaninternationalissuethatmustbeaddressed

multilaterallybyallconcernedstates.

Threemajor incidents mark the new wave ofChinese aggressive

assertiveness.On 2MarchChinese patrol boats operatingwithin the

PhilippinesKalayaanIslandGroupapproachedaPhilippineseismicsurvey

shipinwatersoffReedBankandorderedittoleavethearea.On26May,

threeChinaMaritimeSurveillanceshipsaccostedaVietnamesestate-owned

oilexplorationvesseldeepwithinVietnamsdeclaredExclusiveEconomicZone (EEZ).The vessel was ordered to leave the area after a Chinese

shipdeliberatelycut its submerged surveycable.Andon9June,a second

VietnameseexplorationvesselwasaccostedbyChineseboatsleadingtoan

allegedsecondcable-cuttingincident.

InMay2009,whenMalaysiaandVietnam fileda jointsubmission to

theUnitedNationsCommissionontheLimitsofContinentalShelf,China

lodged aprotestaccompaniedbyamap.TheChinesemap containednine

dashmarksinaroughU-shapecoveringvirtuallyalloftheSouthChinaSea.

ChinaclaimsindisputablesovereigntyovertheSouthChinaSea.Yetithasnevermadeclearthebasisofthisclaimdespitetwodecadesofentreatiesby

regionalstates. Itisunclearwhat it is thatChinaisclaiming.DoesChina

claimsovereigntyoveralltherocksandfeatureswithinthesedashmarks?Or

isChinaclaimingtheSouthChinaSeaasitsterritorialwaters?

SomemaritimespecialistsspeculatethatChinasclaimisbasedonthe

ninerocksitoccupiesintheSpratlyarchipelago.Inotherwords,Chinaclaims

thattherocksareinfactislandsininternationallawandthusattractatwo

hundrednauticalmile(threehundredandseventykilometers)EEZ.Thisis

alegalfiction.Islandsmustbeabletosustainhumanhabitationandhavean

economicfunction.Rocks,whichdonotmeetthesecriteria,cannotclaimanEEZorcontinentalshelf.



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ChinasdashmarkscutintotheEEZsthathavebeendeclaredbyVietnam

andthePhilippinesTheseEEZsarebasedfirmlyininternationallaw.Both

stateshavedrawnstraightbaselinesaroundtheircoastsandthenextendedtheirclaimfromthesebaselinesseawardouttotwohundrednauticalmiles.

UndertheUnitedNationsConventiononLawoftheSealittoralstateshave

sovereigntyoverthesewatersintermsofexploitationofnaturalresources

suchasfisheriesandoilandgasdepositsontheoceanfloor.

InNovember 2002, China andASEAN reached agreement on a

DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea.Thiswasanon-

bindingdocumentinwhichthesignatoriespledgednottouseforcetosettle

their sovereignty disputes.TheDOC,whichcontains numerous proposed

confidence-buildingmeasures,hasneverbeenimplemented.

Chinese assertiveness inpushing its sovereignty claims in the South

China Sea in 2009 and 2010 provoked an internationalbacklash.South

China Seadisputes featured prominentlyat theASEANRegional Forum

andattheinauguralASEANDefenseMinistersMeetingPlusin2010.China

was outmanoeuvreddiplomaticallyand sought to limit further damage by

agreeing to revive theheretofore-moribundASEAN-China JointWorking

Group toImplement theDeclarationonConduct ofParties.Thisworking

grouphadbeenstalledoverChinasinsistencethatterritorialandsovereignty

claimscouldonlybesettledbilaterallybythestatesconcerned.Chinaalso

objectedtoaclauseinthedraftguidelinestoimplementtheDOC,drawnupbyASEAN,thatmentionedASEANmemberswouldgatherfirsttoworkout

acommonpositionbeforemeetingwithChina. InJuly2011,ASEANand

Chinafinally reachedagreementonthe guidelines to implement theDOC

afterASEANquietlydroppedtheoffendingclause.106

According toanassessment bya veterancommentator: Hard-headed

strategistsinSoutheastAsiaknowthatadoptingtheimplementingguidelines

ishardlyaconstraintonChinasincreasinglyaggressivebehaviorintheSouth

ChinaSea.TherealrestraintonChinaisthepresenceoftheU.S.Navyand

theneedtohavestableU.S.-Chinarelations.107

ASEAN,underthechairmanshipofIndonesia,hasbeenpushingChina

toupgradetheDOCintoamorebindingCodeofConduct.Someregional

diplomats are hopeful that an agreement can be reachedby the tenth

anniversaryoftheDOCinNovember2012.Thisisunlikelytobeachieved

unlessASEANmaintainsitsunityandcohesionandadoptsacommonstance.

ItiscleartherearenervousNelliesamongitsmembers.

In the early tomid-1990s,whenChinabegan to occupy rocks in the

SpratlysincludingthecelebratedMischiefReef,securityanalystsdescribed

Chinesestrategyascreepingassertivenessandtalkandtake.Theevents

duringthefirsthalfof2011arebestdescribedasaggressiveassertiveness.ChinaappearstobepayingbackVietnamforitsroleininternationalizingthe



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SouthChinaSeawhenitwasChairofASEAN.ChineseactionsintheReed

BankareaaredesignedtoexposeambiguitiesintheUS-PhilippinesMutual

SecurityTreatyoverwhetherornottheKalayaanIslandGroupiscoveredbythistreaty.

ASEANandtheinternationalcommunity,bothofwhichrelyontransit

through the SouthChinaSea,mustdiplomaticallyconfrontChinaover its

aggressiveassertiveness.Theyshouldbringcollectivediplomaticpressureto

bearonChinatofaithfullyimplementtheguidelinestoimplementtheDOC

adoptedbetweenASEANandChinainBaliinJuly2011.ASEANshouldalso

seekendorsementforitsdiplomaticpositionattheEastAsiaSummittobe

heldinNovember2011.

Meanwhile,boththePhilippinesandVietnamshouldcontinuetoenhance

theircapacitytoexertnationalsovereigntyovertheirEEZs.Theirweakness

onlyinvitesChinatoactmoreassertively.On11June,NguyenPhuongNga,

spokesperson for theMinistry ofForeignAffairs, responded toaquestion

aboutapossiblerolefortheUnitedStatesandothercountriesinresolving

SouthChinaSeadisputes,byreplying,Maintainingmaritimepeace,stability

securityandsafetyintheEasternSeaisinthecommoninterestsofallnations

withinandoutsidetheregion.Everyeffortbytheinternationalcommunity

toward peaceand stability in the Eastern Sea iswelcome.108Itisinthe

interestoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesaswellasIndiatoassistbothnations

incapacitybuildingintheareaofmaritimesecurity.Atthesametimethiscoalitionoflike-mindedstatesshouldbackASEANinitseffortstosecure

agreementon acode of conduct for theSouthChinaSea. IfChina is not

forthcoming,ASEANmembersthemselvescoulddrawupaTreatyonaCode

ofConductintheSouthChinaSea,andafterratification,openittoaccession

bynon-memberstates alongthe linesoftheASEANTreaty ofAmityand

CooperationandtheSoutheastAsianNuclear-FreeWeaponsZoneTreaty.

Notes

+ This isarevisedversionofapaperoriginallydelivered to theConferenceon

MaritimeSecurityintheSouthChinaSea,sponsoredbytheCenterforStrategic

andInternationalStudies,Washington,D.C.,20-21June2011.

* DrCarlyleA.ThayerisEmeritusProfessor in theSchool ofHumanitiesand

SocialSciences,UniversityofNew SouthWales (UNSW) at theAustralian

DefenceForceAcademy (ADFA),Canberra,Australia. ProfessorThayerwas

educatedatBrown,receivedanMAinSoutheastAsianStudiesfromYaleanda

PhDininternationalrelationsfromtheAustralianNationalUniversity(ANU).

HejoinedtheUNSWin1979andtaughtfirstinitsFacultyofMilitaryStudies

attheRoyalMilitaryCollege-Duntroonbeforetransferringtotheacademicstaff

atADFA(1985-2010).ProfessorThayerscareerincludesvisitingappointmentswiththeDepartmentofPoliticalandSocialChangeatANU(1992-94);theAsia



22/30


PacificCenterforSecurityStudiesinHawaii(1999-02);andDeakinUniversity

astheiron-siteacademicco-ordinatorattheCentreforDefenceandStrategic

StudiesattheAustralianDefenceCollege(2002-04).Thayerhasbeenhonoured

byappointmentastheC.V.StarrDistinguishedVisitingProfessorattheSchool

ofAdvancedInternationalStudiesatJohnsHopkinsUniversity(2005)andthe

InauguralFrancesM.andStephenH.FullerDistinguishedVisitingProfessor

atOhioUniversity(2008).Heistheauthorofover400publicationsincluding

Southeast Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperation(2010).

1. Theauthorhasdiscussedthesedevelopmentsindetail,see:CarlyleA.Thayer,

RecentDevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea:ImplicationsforPeace,Stability

andCooperationintheRegion,inTranTruongThuy(ed.),The South China

Sea: Cooperation for Regional Security and Development Proceedings of the

International Workshop Co-organized by the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

and the Vietnam Lawyers Association, 26-27 November 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam,

Hanoi:NhaXuat BanTheGioi, 2010, pp.125-138; andCarlyleA.Thayer,

RecentDevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea:ImplicationsforRegionalPeace

andProsperity,paperpresentedtothe2ndInternationalWorkshopontheSouth

ChinaSea:CooperationforRegionalSecurityandDevelopment,co-sponsored

bytheDiplomaticAcademyofVietnamandtheVietnamLawyersAssociation,

NewWorldSaigonHotel,HoChiMinhCity,12-13November2010.

2. CarlyleAThayer,Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Grounds for

Cautious Optimism?,RSISWorkingPaperNo.220,Singapore:S.Rajaratnam

SchoolofInternationalStudies,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,

14December2010.

3. QuotedinAgenceFrance-Presse,ChineseNavyLessAssertivein 2011:US

admiral,12April2011.

4. KaviChongkittavorn,DifferencePerceptionsofaRisingChina,The Nation,

6June2001.

5. Aquino toRaise JointSouthChinaSeaOilProbe toASEAN,Zamboanga

Today Online,12March2011.

6. Reuters,VietnamAccusesChinaofHarassingAnotherBoat,9June2011.

7. AureaCalica,PalaceinNoHurrytoFileChinaProtest,The Philippine Star,

21May2011.

8. UnitedPressInternational,VietnamAllegesHigh-SeasInterference,10June

2011.

9. MichaelRichardson,ChinaBringsOut the BigRig inEnergyRace,The

Australian Financial Review, 1 June 2010, andMichaelRichardson, China

StepsUpDrilling,Intimidation,The Japan Times,1June2011.

10. PiaLee-Brago,ChinaBuildinginPHLWaters;DFASummonedEnvoy,The

Philippine Star,2June2011.

11. Bernama,TalkstoRevolveClaimsoverSpratlys,New Straits Times,19April

2011.

12. Reuters,ChinaEyesEnergy,BankDealswithMalaysia,Indonesia,21April2011.



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13. NajibandChinesePremiertoDiscussTerritorialClaims,The Star Online,26

April2011.

14. PremierWenShowsGreatInterestinChina-MalaysiaTies,The Star Online,

27April2011.

15. MaxDeLeonadEstrellaTorres,BusinessStepsIntoEndSpratlysRow,ABS-

CBNNews,3June2011.

16. JerryE.Esplanada andTaraQuismundo,AbidebyUNPact,ChinaTold,

Philippine Daily Inquirer,3June2011.

17. TessaJamandre,ChinaFiredatFilipinoFishermeninJacksonAtoll,ABS-CBN

News,3June2011.

18. AureaCalica, PHL toTakeChinese Incursionsto theUnitedNations,The

Philippine Star,4June2011.

19. JimGomez,ChinaWarnsNeighbors:StopOilSearchinSpratlys,Associated

Press,9June2011.

20. BritishBroadcastingNews(BBC)News,Asia-Pacific,PhilippinesHaltsTests

afterChinaPatrolChallenge,8March2011;NicholasHeathandDanielTen

Kate, VietnamSays ChineseBoatHarassedPetroVietnam Survey Ship,

BloombergBusinessweek,9June2011;AureaCalica,PalaceinNoHurryto

FileChinaProtest,The Philippine Star,21May2011;andTessaJamandre,

ChinaFired atFilipino Fishermen in JacksonAtoll,ABS-CBNNews, 3

June2011.TheSampaguitagasfieldintheReedBankisestimatedtocontain

between3.4trilliontotwentytrillioncubicfeetofnaturalgas;Carpsamong

theSpratlys,The Economist,10March2011,onlineedition.


News,3June2011

22. AFP,ChinaStakesClaimonDisputedIslandsafterSpats,9March2011,and

AureaCalica,PalaceinNoHurrytoFileChinaProtest,The Philippine Star,

21May2011.

23. CoastGuardtoSecureOilExplorationinKalayaanIslandGroup,GMANews

TV,19April2011.TheKIGcontainsninegeologicalfeatures:Balagtas(Irving

Reef),Kota (Loaita), Lawak(Nanshan),Likas (WestYork),Pag-asa (Thitu),

Panata (Lankiam), Parola (NortheastCay), Patag Island (Flat Island is also

consideredapartoftheSpratlys)andRizal(CommodoreReef).

24. PhilippineMission totheUnitedNations, letter tothe SecretaryGeneral of

heUnitedNations,11-00494,No.000228,NewYork,5April2011.Seealso:

AFP,PhilippinesProtestsChinasSpratlysClaimatUN,13April2011;Tessa

Jamandre,PHLProtestsChineseMapClaimingSpratlyIslands,GMANews

TV,13April2011;andJerryE.Esplanada,PHRunstoUNtoProtestChinas

9-DashLineSpratlysClaims,Philippine Daily Inquirer,15April2011.

25. QuotedbyTessaJamandre,ChinaAccusesPHofInvasion,ABC-CBNNews,

19April 2011,andTeresaCerojano,BeijingCountersManilasUNProtest,

SaysPhilippinesStarted to Invade Spratlys in1970s,AssociatedPress, 19

April2011.

26. TheChineseNoteVerbale specificallymentioned theLaw of thePeoples

RepublicofChinaonTerritorialSeaandContiguousZone(1992),theLawon



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theExclusiveEconomicZoneandtheContinentalShelfofthePeoplesRepublic

ofChina(1998)aswellasthe1982UNConventiononLawoftheSea.


News,3June2011.

28. ChineseJets Intruded into PHSpaceAFP, Philippine Daily Inquirer,20

May2011;TwoUnidentifiedAircraftSeenoverSpratlysAFP,GMANews

TV,21May2011;AFPValidatesKalayaanIslandsAircraftSightingIncident,

PhilippineInformationAgencyPressRelease,23May2011;andJimGomez,

China,PhilippinesWarnRivalsonSpratlys,The China Post,24May2011.

29. TessaJamandre,ChinaFiredatFilipinoFishermeninJacksonatoll,ABS-CBN

News,3June2011.

30. Jun Pasaylo, China SurveillanceShipsRoamPhlWaters,The Philippine

Star,1June2011;SimoneOrendain,PhilippinesSeeksAnswersaboutLatest

SouthChinaSea Incident,VoiceofAmericaNews,1 June2011;KatherineEvangelista,PhilippinesMilitarytoActwithDiplomacyoverSpratlysDispute

DefenseChief,Philippine Daily Inquirer,1June2011;JohanaPaolad.Poblete,

PhilippinesPreparingIssuesforUNaboutChinaIntrusions,Business World,

2June2011reports;ChinaDeniesInvasionofSouthChinaSea,ABS-CN

News,2June2011;AFP,PhilippinesGovtProteststoChinaoverOilPlans

inSouthChinaSea,The China Post,2June2011;andJerryE.Esplanadaand

TarraQuismundo,AbidebyUNPact,ChinaTold,Philippine Daily Inquirer,

3June2011.

31. QuotedbyGMANews,DFAConveysProtesttoBeijingoverChineseVessels,

GMANewsTV, 4 June2011.Seealso: PiaLee-Brago,ChinaBuilding inPHLWaters;DFASummonedEnvoy,The Philippine Star,2June2011.Tessa

Jamandre, ChinaFired atFilipinoFishermen in JacksonAtoll,ABS-CBN

News,3June2011reportednoNoteVerbalewasgiventotheChineseCharge

dAffairesatthe31Maymeeting.

32. GMANews,DFA:StrongerSeaCodetoPreventRepeatofMischiefReef,

GMANewsTV,2June2011,andChinaDeniesIncursionintoWestPhilippine

Sea,The Philippine Star,3June2011.

33. DonaZ.Pazzibugan, Chinese Intrusions inPH-Claimed Parts ofSpratlys

Alarming,SaysGazmin,Philippines Daily Inquirer,2June2011.

34. PiaLee-Brago,ChinaBuildinginPHLWaters;DFASummonedEnvoy,ThePhilippineStar,2June2011.

35. QuotedbyAdiantoP.Simamora,SBY,AquinoAgreeonTalksoverSpratlys,

The Jakarta Post,9March2011.

36. ReginaBengco,PeaceinSpratlysIsAllTheyWant,Malaya.Com,2June2011;

Shirley Escalante, Philippines,BruneiPush forDialoguetoSettleSpratley

IslandsDispute,Australia NetworkNews, 3 June2011 andChinaDenies

IncursionintoWestPhilippineSea,The Philippine Star,2June2011.

37. Johanna Paolad.Poblete,PhilippinesPreparing IssuesforUNaboutChina

Intrusions,Business World,2June2011.

38. AdoptionofTerritorialGuidelinesUrged,Manila Bulletin,2June2011.

39. Johana Paolad.Poblete,Philippines Preparing Issues for UN aboutChinaIntrusions,Business World,2June2011;AmitaO.Legaspi,PalacePrepares



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Spratlys IncursionsReport,GMANewsTV, 3 June 2011;andJimGomez,

PhilippinesPlansNewUNProtestasChinaDeniesAggressiveActsinSpratly

Islands,AssociatedPress,3June2011.

40. GMANews,DFA:StrongerSeaCodetoPreventRepeatofMischiefReef,

GMANewsTV,2June2011.

41. JaimeLaude,AFPtoMaintainPresenceinSpratlys,The Philippine Star,29

March2011.

42. JonGrevatt, Philippines to InvestUSD183million inDefence ofSpratly

Islands,Janes Defence Weekly,30March2011;Reuters,PhilippinesStepsUp

PresenceinSouthChinaSea,28March2011andAssociatedPress,Philippines

toBolsterWatch inDisputedSpratlys,BloombergBusinessweek,28March

2011.

43. Philippines Set toDeployNew PatrolShip toKalayaan Islands,Manila

Bulletin, 14April 2011, andAFP, Philippines toBoosts Spratly Patrols,ChannelNewsAsia, 15April 2011.TheUSCGCHamilton, aWeatherHigh

EnduranceCutter,was renamed theBRPGregorio del Pilar andwill be the

largestshipinthePhilippinenavy;MarichuA.Villanueva,KeepingPhlNavy

afloat,The Philippine Star,16May2011.

44. Reuters,PhilippinesSaysWillSpend$255minonMilitaryHelicopters,Boats,

13April2011.

45. KatherineEvangelista,PhilippinesEyeSubmarinestoBoostNavy,Philippine

Daily Inquirer,17May2001.

46. ChinaDeniesIncursionintoWestPhilippineSea,The Philippines Star,3June

2011.47. MichaelLimUbac,PhilippinesShopsforUSMilitaryGear,Philippine Daily

Inquirer,5June2011.

48. ShirleyEscalante,PhilippinesIncreaseSecurityforOilExploration,Australia

NetworkNews,28April2011.

49. ChristineO.Avendano,DonaPazzibuganandJeromeAning,PalaceSeesNo

TerrorBacklashagainstAquinoVisittoShip,Philippine Daily Inquirer,16May

2011.

50. QuotedbyChina,PHAgreetoHoldRegularTalksonSpratlys,ABS-CBN

News,23May2011;ChristineO.AvendanoandDonaZ.Pazzibugan,Peaceful

SpratlysResolutionReaffirmed,Philippines Daily Inquirer, 24May 2011;SimoneOrendain, Philippines,ChinaSupport DiscussiononSouthChina

Sea,VoiceofAmericaNews,24May2011;JimGomez,China,Philippines

WarnRivals onSpratlys,The China Post, 24May 2011;and JimGomez,

China,PhilippinesDefenseChiefsDiscussSpratlys,AssociatedPress,4June

2011.

51. WillardCheng,Philippines,ChinaOKSouthChinaSeaDialogue,ABS-CBN

News,23May2011.

52. AFP,PhilippinesWarnsofArmsRaceinSouthChinaSea,24May2011,and

WilliamB.Depasupil,PhilippinesWarnsofArmsRaceinSouthChinaSea,

Manila Times,25May2011.

53. Pia Lee-Brago, ChinaWelcomesDialogue toEnd NanshaDispute,ThePhilippine Star,25May2011.



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54. Statementof theDepartmentofForeignAffairson thePresenceofChinese

VesselsintheWestPhilippineSea(SouthChinaSea),4June2011.

55. QuotedbyXinhua,ChinaRejectsPhilippinesAccusationonSouthChinaSea

issue,7June2011;AFP,ChinaSaysPhilippinesHarmingItsMaritimeRights,

ABS-CBNNews,7June2011;Reuters,ChinaScoldsPhilippinesoverDisputed

Waters,8June2011.


Press,9June2011.


Press,9June2011.

58. Quotedin ARules-BasedRegime intheSouthChinaSeaby:AlbertF.Del

Rosario,SecretaryofForeignAffairs,PublicInformationServiceUnit,7June

2011.

59. AmitaO.Legaspi,PalacePreparesSpratlysIncursionsReport,GMANewsTV,3June2011.

60. Answer fromVietnamMinistry of ForeignAffairsSpokespersonNguyen

PhuongNga toQuestions byGregTorode South China Morning Post,

December2010;see:GregTorodeandMinnieChan,ChinaRefusestoYield

onParacels,Sunday Morning Post[HongKong],12December2010.

61.Ibid.

62. Vietnam,ChinaAgree toResolveSea Dispute throughPeacefulMeans,

VietnamNewsAgency,3August2011.

63. ChinesePresidentVowstoFurtherTieswithVietnam,Xinhua,18February

2011,andChinasHuJintaoInvitesNguyenPhoTrong,VoiceofVietnam

News,19February2011.

64. PartyLeadersMeetingwithChineseGeneral,VietnamNewsAgency,14April

2011.

65. LiQiong, China,Vietnam Issue JointPressCommuniqu onCMCVice

ChairmanGuoBoxiongsVisittoVietnam,Xinhua,17April2011.

66. VietnamesePrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungMeetswithChineseViceForeign

MinisterZhangZhijun,MinistryofForeignAffairsofthePeoplesRepublicof

China,20April2011.

67. QuotedinAgenceFrancePresse,Vietnam,ChinaVowtoWorkonDisputedSea

Pact,21April2011,andDeutschePresse-Agentur,VietnamandChinaPledge

toSettleSouthChinaSeaDisputes,20April2011.68. EastSeaIncidentaPressingIssue:VietnameseDefenseMinister,Thanh Nien

News,4June2011.ChinesenewsmediadistortedMinisterThanhsremarksby

reportingthathe agreedtoresolveheirdifferencesover theSouthChinaSe

throughbilateralefforts,andthatnothirdpartyshouldbeallowedtointerferein

sucheffortsorusetheissuetoharmthebilateralrelations,see:ChineseDM

MeetswithVietnameseCounterpartinSingapore,Xinhua,4June2011.

69. MinistryofForeignAffairs, VietNam-China JointPressRelease, June 26,

2011.(Accessed27June2011)

70. VietnamOpposesChinasFishingBaninEastSea,VoiceofVietnamNews,

14May2011.

71. ChineseShipViolatesVietnamsSovereignty,VietnamNewsAgency,13May

2011.



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72. Chinese Fishing BoatsViolateVietnamWaters;GovtMulls PatrolBoats,Thanh Nien News,29May2011.

73. DeutschePresse-Agentur, VietnamDefiant onFirstDay ofChinese Fishing

Ban,16May2011.

74. AnDienandMinhHung,EastSeaUndercurrents,Thanh Nien News,10June

2011.

75. Vietnam:ChineseSoldiersAttackFishermen,AssociatedPress,13July2011.

76. BaoCaoSuCoTauTruongQuocCatCapThuDiaChanCuaTauBinhMinh

02VaoLuc5H58Ngay 26/05/2011,andReuters, VietnamSaysChinese

BoatsHarassedOilExplorationShip,27May2011.Theincidenttookplace

116nauticalmilesofftheDaiLanhCapeonthecoastofPhuYenprovinceat12

degrees4825northlatitudeand111degrees2648eastlongitude.

77. VNCondemnsChineseIntrusion,VietnamNewsAgency,28May2011.

78. DeutschePresse-Agentur,VietnamStandsGroundinSeaDispute,SurveyshipTakesUpWork, 6 June2011;AgenceFrancePresse, Vietnam complains

toChinaas sea tensions rise,9 June 2011;andNicholasHeathandDaniel

TenKate,VietnamSaysChineseBoatHarassedPetroVietnamSurveyShip,

BloombergBusinessweek,9June2011.

79. BenBlandandKathrinHille,VietnamandChinaOilClashesIntensify,The

Financial Times,27May2011.

80. National,WorldSecurityCloselyLinked:Minister,Viet Nam News,7June

2011.VietnamesesourcestoldtheauthorthereasonVietnamdidnotprotestthe

2008incidentwasbecausetheVietnamesesurveyvesselwasoperatingbeyond

VietnamsEEZ.

81. QuotedinReuters,ChinaReprimandsVietnamoverOffshoreOilExploration,

28May2011.

82. VietnamDemandsChinaStopSovereigntyViolations,Thanh Nien News,29

May2011.

83. QuotedbyHuyDuong,ThePhilippinesandVietnamattheCrossroad,Manila

Times,9June2011.

84. IanTimberlake, SeaSpat RaisesChina-VietnamTensions,AgenceFrance

Presse,9 June 2011.TalismanEnergy Inc., a Canadian companybased in

Calgary, announced inApril 2011 that itwould conduct amajor seismic

programmeinthisarea;NicholasHeathandDanielTenKate,VietnamSays

ChineseBoatHarassedPetro-VietnamSurveyShip,BloombergBusinessweek,9June2011.

85. Reuters,VietnamAccusesChinaofHarassingAnotherBoat,9June2011.

86. QuotedbyUnitedPressInternational,VietnamAllegesHigh-seasInterference,

10June2011.

87. AnDienandMinhHung,EastSeaUndercurrents,Thanh Nien News,10June

2011.

88. IanTimberlake, SeaSpat RaisesChina-VietnamTensions,AgenceFrance

Presse,9June2011,andReuters,ChinaAccusesVietnaminEscalatingSea

Tensions,10June2011.

89. InterviewwithThanhNienquotedbyAgenceFrancePresse,VietnamPMSays

SeaSovereigntyIncontestable,9June2011,andDeutschePresse-Agentur,

VietnamsTopLeadersAddFiretoSouthChinaSeaDisputes,9June2011.



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90. DeutchePresse-Agentur,VietnamsTopLeadersAddFiretoSouthChinaSea

Dispute,9June2011.

91. BenBlanchardandMichaelMartina,ChinaSaystoHoldRoutineNavyDrills

inWesternPacific,Reuters,9June2011.

92. BaoDamAnToanHangHaiMienBac (NorthernMaritimeSafetyCorpora-

tion), Ve viec ban dan that tren vung bienQuang Nam, So 107/TBHH-

CT.BDATHHMB,9June2011.

93. QuotedbyJohnRuwitch,VietnamWelcomesInternationalHelpasSeaDispute

Escalates, Reuters, 11 June 2011.See also:MargieMason,VietnamPlans

Live-FireDrillafterChinaDispute,AssociatedPress,10June2011;Agence

FrancePresse,VietnamtoHoldLive-FireDrillasChinaRiftGrows,10June

2011;andDeutschePresse-Agentur,NavyOfficialSaysLive-FireDrillsWell

insideVietnamsTerritory,11June2011.

94. QuotedbyAssociatedPress, ChineCommunist PartyNewspaper CautionsVietnam,11June2011.

95. ChineseAggressionin theSouthChinaSea Persists,SaysVietnamForeign

Minister,IB Times,9June2011;Reuters,VietnamAccusesChinaofHarassing

Another Boat, 9 June 2011; andIanTimberlake, FacebookEffect Stirs

Vietnam-ChinaTensions,AgenceFrancePresse,10June2011

96. DeutschePresse-Agentur, VietnameseDemonstrate against Chinaas Sea

DisputesHeatsUp,12June2011;Reuters,VietnamAllowsSecondAnti-China

ProtestinHanoi,12June2011;andAgenceFrance-Presse,ProtestersRally

aheadofVietnamFireDrills,The Standard,13June2011.SomeVietnamese

universitieswarnedtheirstudentsnottotakepartinanti-Chinademonstrations.A notice at the IndustrialUniversity inHoChiMinh City, for example,

threatenedtoexpelstudentswhotookpartinanti-Chinademonstrations;see:

JohnRuwitch,VietnamAllowsSecondAnti-ChinaProtestinHanoi,Reuters,

12June2011.

97. VietnamIssuesUltimatumtoAnti-ChinaProtesters,DeutschePresseAgentur,

18August2001,andMarianneBrown,VietnamSecurityForcesDetainAnti-

ChinaProtesters,VoiceofAmericaNews,21August2011

98. AFP,VietnamComplainstoChinaasSeaTensionsRise,9June2011,andIan

Timberlake,VietnamtoHoldLive-FireDrillasChinaRiftGrows,10June

2011.99. Dato SriNajibTunRazak,KeynoteAddress,The 10th IISSAsian Security

SummittheShangri-LaDialogue,3June2011.

100.RobertM.Gates,EmergingSecurityChallengesintheAsia-Pacific,The10th

IISSAsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,4June2011.

101.LiangGuanglie,Chinas InternationalSecurityCooperation,The10thIISS

AsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,5June2011.

102.PhungQuangThanh,RespondingtoNewMaritimeSecurityThreats,The10th

IISSAsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,5June2011.

103.Confidential sourcewho spokewith SecretaryGazmin at the Shangri-La

Dialogue.

104.VoltaireGazmin,RespondingtoNewMaritimeSecurityThreats,The10thIISSAsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,5June2011.



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105.Bernama, ComprehensiveEffortsNeeded to Ensure RegionalMaritime

Security,The Star Online,5June2001.

106.Asof this writing the guidelines have notbeen released.According to a

confidentialsourcewhoattendedtheASEANrelatedmeetingsinBali,thenew

guidelinesstate,ThepartiestotheDOCwillcontinuetopromotedialogueand

consultationsinaccordancewiththespiritoftheDOC.Privateemailreceived

22July2011.

107.BaryWain,ASouthChinaSeaCharade,The Wall Street Journal,21August

2011.

108.QuotedbyJohnRuwitch,VietnamWelcomesInternationalHelpasSeaDispute

Escalates,Reuters,11June2011.

ReferencesGates, RobertM. (2011), Emerging SecurityChallenges in theAsia-Pacific,

presentationtothe10thIISSAsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,4

June.

Gazmin,Voltaire (2011), Responding to NewMaritimeSecurityThreats,


June.

LiangGuanglie(2011),ChinasInternationalSecurityCooperation,presentationto

the10thIISSAsianSecuritySummittheShangri-LaDialogue,5June.

NajibTunRazak,DatoSri(2011),KeynoteAddressatthe10thIISSAsianSecurity

SummittheShangri-LaDialogue,3June.PhungQuangThanh (2011), Responding toNewMaritimeSecurity Threats,


June.

Thayer,CarlyleA.(2010),RecentDevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea:Implications

forPeace,StabilityandCooperationintheRegion,inTranTruongThuy(ed.),

The South China Sea: Cooperation for Regional Security and Development

Proceedings of the International Workshop Co-organized by the Diplomatic

Academy of Vietnam and the Vietnam Lawyers Association, 26-27 November 2009,

Hanoi, Vietnam,Hanoi:NhaXuatBanTheGioi,pp.125-138.

Thayer, CarlyleA. (2010), RecentDevelopments in the South China Sea:

Implications for RegionalPeaceand Prosperity, paperpresented to the 2nd

InternationalWorkshopontheSouthChinaSea:CooperationforRegionalSecurity

andDevelopment,co-sponsoredbytheDiplomaticAcademyofVietnamandthe

VietnamLawyersAssociation,NewWorld SaigonHotel,HoChiMinh City,

Vietnam,12-13November.

Thayer,CarlyleA(2010),RecentDevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea:Grounds

forCautiousOptimism?,RSISWorkingPaperNo.220,Singapore:S.Rajaratnam

SchoolofInternationalStudies,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,14

December.



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Thayer China's New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea

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