Techno-economic study of hydrogen as a heavy-duty truck fuel · Fuel cell El.motor Battery...

Techno-economic study of hydrogen as a heavy-duty truck fuel

A case study of Oslo – Trondheim transport corridor

By Janis [email protected]

o Backgroundo Methodologyo The trucko The infrastructureo Summary & Outlook

Norway's greenhouse gas emissions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tho

use

nd

to

n C

O2

-eq

Year

Norwegian total emissions

Background

27%

23%17%

14%

9%

5%

3%2%

Greenhouse gas emissions 2018

Oil and gas extraction

Manufacturing industries and mining

Road traffic

Aviation, navigation, fishing, motorequip. etc.

Agriculture

Other

Energy supply

Heating in other industries andhouseholds

7.6%

Sources:Miljødirektoratet. (2018). Norske utslipp av klimagasser. Retrieved from https://www.miljostatus.no/tema/klima/norske-klimagassutslippMiljøstatus. (2019, 2019/03/19/). Nasjonale miljømål. Retrieved from https://www.miljostatus.no/nasjonale-mal

3

Emission free HD transport

4Background

H2

Battery powered

Biodiesel powered

Hydrogen powered

[1] H2 Energy. (n.d., 2019/06/24/). Our Business Fields Retrieved from https://h2energy.ch/en/business-fields-2[2] Scania. (2017, 2019/04/20/). Hydrogen a fuel of the future? Retrieved from https://www.scania.com/group/en/hydrogen-a-fuel-of-the-future[3] Hyundai. (2019). Green Hydrogen Allows Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility and Hydrospider … [Press release] Retrieved from https://www.hyundainews.com/en-us/releases/2875[4] Nikola (Producer). (2019, 2019/04/16/). Nikola World 2019. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dc8J3iSLw4

Scania demo truck for Asko [2] Nikola serial produced truck [4]

Esoro demo truck in Switzerland [1] Hyundai serial produced truck[3]

2016 2020

2019 2022?

https://h2energy.ch/en/business-fields-2

https://www.scania.com/group/en/hydrogen-a-fuel-of-the-future

https://www.hyundainews.com/en-us/releases/2875

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dc8J3iSLw4

Case study

5

1 Source: https://www.ssb.no/transport-og-reiseliv/statistikker/godstrans2 TØI report “Forecasts for Norwegian freight transport, 2016-2050”3 When using national forecast by Norwegian Environment Agency

Now

Yearly transport of cargo

932 000 tons (average last 10 years)1

Trips per working day

~260

Zero emission trucks

0

2030

1 149 0002

~330

~1003

Background

https://www.ssb.no/transport-og-reiseliv/statistikker/godstrans

Research questions

• What is an optimal design of Fuel Cell Electric Truck (FCET) in the transport corridor between Oslo and Trondheim?

• What is the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of an FCET in comparison with other net-zero carbon dioxide fuels such as biodiesel?

• What is the best techno-economic design and scale-up of hydrogen refueling infrastructure in the corridor, dependent on hydrogen demand (fleet size)?

6Background

Approach

8

Truck energy demand

Truck component design

Model different HRS and electrolyzers

TCO for 2020 & 2030

Evaluate created models

Find LCOH for different scenarios in

2020 & 2030

The truck The Infrastructure

Combine results and conclude upon

feasibility in 2020 & 2030

Number of trucks as free variable

LCOH as free variable

Assumption for truck

10

Source: https://www.volvotrucks.no/no-no/trucks/volvo-fh16/media-gallery.html

• The freight is done with a semi-trailer truck (50 ton)

• The first owner will use the truck for 6 years

• Discount rate of 8%

• A hybrid truck with fuel cell and battery

The truck

El.motorFuel cell

Battery

Electrical energy

Mechanical energy

Fuel

Hydrogen storage

Truck Energy flows

Power and energy demand for a truck

11

FuelEnergy demand

per trip

FCET 729 kWh

Biodiesel 850 kWh

Due to regeneration the hybrid truck requires

10,6% less energy

Efficiency of stack or engine

Fuel demand

55% 40 kg

43% 208 l

The truck

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met

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ea le

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Km from Oslo

Altitude and truck (50 ton) traction power for Oslo - Trondheim route

Altitude (m)

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

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Km from Oslo

Altitude and truck (50 ton) traction power for Oslo - Trondheim route

Altitude (m) Traction power (kW)

12

Sized components Size

Max traction power 402 kWmech

Fuel cell 200 kWel

Battery 100 kWh

Fuel tank 46 kgH2

The truck

Truck specifications

Source: Scania. (2017, 2019/04/20/). Hydrogen a fuel of the future? Retrieved from https://www.scania.com/group/en/hydrogen-a-fuel-of-the-future

Truck CAPEX & OPEX

13The truck

Biodiesel FCET

Maintenance NOK/km 1.27 [1] 0.91 [1,2]

Tires, washing and requisites NOK/km 1.42 [1] 1.42 [1]

Road taxes NOK/km 0.71 [3] 0

Fuel 13.8 NOK/l [4] Free variable

[1] Grønland, S. E. (2018). Kostnadsmodeller for transport og logistikk – basisår 2016 (TØI rapport 1638/2018). Retrieved from TØI: https://www.toi.no/publikasjoner/kostnadsmodeller-for-transport-og-logistikk-basisar-2016-article35060-8.html[2] Zhao, H., Wang, Q., Fulton, L., Jaller, M., & Burke, A. (2018). A Comparison of Zero-Emission Highway Trucking Technologies (UC-ITS-2017-50). Retrieved from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1584b5z9[3] Fjellinjen (2019, 2019/08/11) Bompengekalkulator - Takster fra 1. juni 2019 Retrieved from https://www.fjellinjen.no/privat/bompengekalkulator/[4] Circle K. Norge. (2019, 2019/06/21/). Prishistorikk for truckdiesel Retrieved from https://m.circlek.no/cs/Satellite?c=Page&childpagename=NO1%2FLayout&cid=1334077141669&p=1334077141669&packedargs=lang%3Dno_NO%26site%3DNO1&pagename=NO1Wrapper

Truck type Purchase price (NOK)

Biodiesel 1 152 175

FCET 2020 1 936 340

FCET 2030 1 361 893

https://www.toi.no/publikasjoner/kostnadsmodeller-for-transport-og-logistikk-basisar-2016-article35060-8.html

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1584b5z9

https://m.circlek.no/cs/Satellite?c=Page&childpagename=NO1/Layout&cid=1334077141669&p=1334077141669&packedargs=lang%3Dno_NO%26site%3DNO1&pagename=NO1Wrapper

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

14The truck

𝑇𝐶 Τ𝑂 𝑘𝑚 =𝐼𝑃𝐶 −

𝑅𝑉1 + 𝑟 𝑛 ∗ 𝐶𝑅𝐹 +

1𝑛σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐴𝑂𝐶

1 + 𝑟 𝑡

𝐴𝐾𝑇

AKT = Annual Kilometers TravelledAOC = Annual Operation CostsCRF = Capital Recovery FactorIPC = Initial Purchase Cost

Source: Wu, G., Inderbitzin, A., & Bening, C. (2015). Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles: A probabilistic analysis and projection across market segments. Energy Policy, 80, 196-214. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.004

Annualized CAPEX OPEX

n = years of ownershipr = discount rateRV = Rest value

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NO

K/k

m

Cost of hydrogen (NOK/kgH2)

Total cost of ownership depending on hydrogen retail price

TCO H2 truck 2020

TCO Biofuel truck

Comparison of TCO

15The truck

The most sensitive parameters:• Economic lifetime (6 years)• Annual mileage (81 100 km)• CAPEX (1 839 144 NOK)

Comparison of TCO

16The truck

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Total cost of ownership depending on hydrogen retail price

TCO H2 truck 2020

TCO H2 truck 2030

TCO Biofuel truck

Location

18The infrastructure

Location is chosen based on:• A full tank is enough for a one-way trip• Allow the truck to make deliveries nearby

the cities• Allows refilling during obligatory rest period

in the middle of the route• Have resilience

Supply chain

19

Electrolysis (Ely)

PEM or Alkaline

Distributed or centralized production

Hydrogen Refueling Station (HRS)

350 or 700 bar

Transport

In case fueling station and electrolysis is

separated

The infrastructure

Supply chain

20

Electrolysis (Ely)

PEM or Alkaline

Distributed or centralized production

Hydrogen Refueling Station (HRS)

350 or 700 bar

The infrastructure

Cheapest option:

Electrolyzer set-up

21

Electrolyzer unit

Storage 350 bar

Compressor

Electrolyzer

The infrastructure

450 bar

Cooling(Optional)

Hydrogen refuelling station – 350 bar

Levelized Cost Of Hydrogen

22

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐻 =σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐼𝑡 +𝑀𝑡 + 𝐸𝑡

1 + 𝑟 𝑡

σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐻𝑡

1 + 𝑟 𝑡

It = Investment costs year tMt = Maintenance cost year tEt = Energy costs year t

Ht = Hydrogen produced year tN = Lifetime (30 year)r = Interest rate (8%)

The infrastructure

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LCO

H (

NO

K/k

gH2

)

Refueling events per HRS & day

700 bar 2020

350 bar 2020

LCOH based on local electrolyzer


The most sensitive parameters:• Amount of trucks• Interest rate (8%)• Electricity price

(0.36 NOK/kWhel)

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LCO

H (

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K/k

gH2

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700 bar 2020

350 bar 2020

700 bar 2030

350 bar 2030

LCOH based on local electrolyzer


The most sensitive parameters:• Amount of trucks• Interest rate (8%)• Electricity price

(0.36 NOK/kWhel)

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LCO

H (

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gH2

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700 bar 2020

350 bar 2020

Profitability depending on infrastructure


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700 bar 2020

350 bar 2020



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2020 Scenario

350 bar

700 bar

TCO H2 truck 2020

TCO Biofuel truck


Summary and Outlook 28

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2030 Scenario

350 bar 2030

700 bar 2030

TCO H2 truck 2030

TCO Biofuel truck





Infrastructure

2020 2030

Tru

ck

2020 N/A N/A

203035 refuelings per day and station

5 refuelings per day and station

Infrastructure

2020 2030

Tru

ck

2020- 9 937

kNOK/year- 3 755

kNOK/year

2030- 1 412

kNOK/year4 771

kNOK/year

• 15 trucks refueling daily per HRS• 3 HRS stations• Truck fleet of 72 units in total

Price parity with biodiesel (HVO) Feasibility in comparison with biodiesel (HVO)

Summary & Outlook

31

• Based on current theoretical cost levels FCET are not competitive with HVO fueled trucks.

• There are expected price reduction both for trucks and infrastructure that could make FCET an attractive option. • For example in 2030 it is forecasted that a HRS serving 5 trucks would become a feasible option

both for truck and HRS owner.

• Considering the future expected price reduction, short term subsidies should be considered to help to meet national emission reduction targets.

• Strongest gains from economy of scale is found for HRS serving up to 10-15 trucks

• Production of hydrogen at HRS is the least cost option, due to high transport costs

• Demand ramp-up is not included in the calculation. It would increase LCOH.

Summary and Outlook

Thank you for your attention!

Questions?

Janis [email protected]

Techno-economic study of hydrogen as a heavy-duty truck fuel · Fuel cell El.motor Battery...

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