Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Church
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Transcript of Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Church
Shepherd of the ValleyLutheran Church
University of Mary Fargo, ND
The Consultant Team Mark Fitzloff Team Leader Josh Kadrmas Statistical Analysis Gene Windhorst Statistical Analysis Steve Stenerson Market Analysis Peter Engebretson Market Analysis Matt Sagaser Finance Analysis Kresha Wiest Finance Analysis Patrick Rein Finance Analysis Paul Freeman Marketing Analysis Myra Very Chief Editor and Legal
Agenda Introduction & Overview Statistical Analysis Market Analysis Financial Analysis Legal Analysis Business Recommendations Conclusion
16%
2%2%7%
40%
3%
WELS
0.2%
30%
ELCA
Catholic
WELS
MO Synod
United Methodist
Presbyterian
Other
Unclaimed
F/M Metro Area – Religious Affiliations
Statistics-F/M Metro Area – Growth
Population GrowthSource: US Census
Year Fargo Moorhead West Fargo Metro Area
1960 47,000 N/A 3,328 106,027
1970 53,365 (+14%) 29,687 5,161 (+55%) 120,261 (+13%)
1980 61,383 (+15%) 29,998 (+1%) 10,099 (+96%)
137,574 (+14%)
1990 74,084 (+20%) 32,295 (+8%) 12,287 (+22%)
153,296 (+11%)
2000 90,599 (+22%) 32,177 (-0.4%) 14,940 (+22%)
174,367 (+14%)
2004(est.) 91,048 (+0.5%)
33,390 (+4%) 17,581 (+18%)
178,242 (+2%)
F/M Metro Area – Households
Household MakeupSource: US Census (2000) & City of Fargo
Fargo Moorhead West Fargo
Total households 39,268 11,660 5,771
Family households 20,724 (53%)
7,036 (60%) 4,091 (71%)
Non-family households 18,544 (47%)
4,624 (40%) 1,680 (29%)
Average size (household)
2.20 2.43 2.59
Median Income $35,510 $34,781 $44,542
F/M Metro Area – FamiliesFamily MakeupSource: US Census (2000) & City of Fargo
Fargo Moorhead West Fargo
Family 20,724 (53%) 7,036 (60%) 4,091 (71%)
Married Couple Family
16,407 (42%) 5,515 (47%) 3,308 (57%)
Female Householder, no husband present
3,078 (7%) 1,148 (10%) 572 (10%)
Average size (family)
2.91 3.04 3.09
Median Income $50,486 $49,118 $51,765
Table 2: Target Population - Children under the Age of 5 City # under age 5 % under age 5 Fargo 5,763 6.4 Moorhead 1,870 5.8 West Fargo 1,109 7.4 Total 8,742 6.3 Source: US Census (2000 Census)
Child Population
F/M Metro Area – Children
Market Research – Demand Common characteristics of
successful preschools:Smaller class sizes
15 – 20 students 2 teachers
Clean and bright facilities that are child friendly
Concerns on safety and security Strong academic emphasis
Market Research – Demand Highest market demand is for extended
daycare and preschools West Fargo currently does not have any
Christian preschools. Preschool will be the strongest point of
entry into the existing market.
Market Research – Strategy Word of mouth…
Positive or Negative Program directors
Competitive benchmarking Start the marketing campaign early in the
summer months. Use strong emphasis on the Christian focus
of this preschool.
Financial Analysis - Overview Revenue Expenses Breakeven analysis Risk
Financial Analysis – Revenue Recommended Tuition
Two-day/week session = $75/month Three-day/week session = $95/month One-time registration fee = $25
Non-tuition revenue options Planned giving, fundraising, donations, grants, and
Stewardship programmed monies.
No funding from a lending institution required
Financial Analysis – Expenses Start Up Cost - $8k - $10k
10 Students/SessionAnnual Revenue = $32k
Annual rate of return expected at 8%Annual Operating Expense = $31k
Break Even Graph - SOTV Preschool Program
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Students
Re
ve
nu
e
Revenue
Total costs
Fixed costs
Linear (Total costs)
Linear (Revenue)
Linear (Fixed costs)
Financial Analysis – Breakeven Break Even is 8 students per ½ day
session
Financial Analysis - Risk
Squared
DeviationRate 2nd Year First Year Times
Probability Price Fixed Cost students NPV Probability
25% $994.50 30,223 52 $179,419 7,067,848,970
50% $765.00 43,175 40 $2,331 40,024,40525% $535.50 56,128 28 ($138,969) 5,643,540,252
12751413627
Expected NPV = sum, prob times NPV $11,278Standard Deviation = Sq Root of column I sum $112,922Coefficient of Variation = Std Dev / Expected NPV 10.01
Scenario
Best CaseBase Case
Worst Case
Legal Analysis Federal/State
ND Codified Law Title 15.1 Inspection, qualification, accreditation of facility Licensing of the teacher (B-3 license to supervise student teachers) Curriculum Nutrition
North Dakota Early Childhood Services Chapter 75-03-11 Teacher to student ratio for preschool is 1:11 (kindergarten is 1:20) Teacher’s aid qualifications General guidelines (safety, lighting, etc.)
West Fargo Ordinances Playground (east alley)
Requires 6’ wood fence Parking lot
Requirement of 1 space per 3 seats for church, or 1 space per employee of largest shift, or Demonstrate agreement with local agency
Business Recommendations Overall Vision
Preschool through 12 gradeExtended careSummer care
Business Recommendations Current Facility Issues
Maximum capacity of 40 studentsFull Christian Day School
Hard to compete against established public/private schools
Extra curricular activities, band, and sports
Funding would rely heavily on congregation
Business Recommendations Progressive 20 year plan
Capitalize on current demand: Preschool Maximize growth Efficient use of current facility
Not sitting empty during week
Allow for substantial growth from community Start small and grow at a sustainable rate Additional considerations
Before & After School Care Summer Care (year-round employment for teacher)
Business Recommendations Progressive 20 year plan (continued)
Timeline- 1-2 years: Preschool 3-5 years: Preschool – Kindergarten with extended
care 5-7 years: Preschool – Grade 5 with extended care 7-10 years: Preschool – Grade 7 with extended care 10-15 years: Preschool – Grade 9 with extended care 15-20 years: Preschool – Grade 12 with extended care
Business Recommendations Develop an Image
Name First impression
Customer’s will remember Either draw them or send them to competition
Needs to be easy to remember Describing the essence of the school Suggestion, “Little Lambs Christian
Preschool” In line with with “Shepherd” theme
Business Recommendations Develop the Program
Focus on key areas Limit students to 15 to 20 per session Facility promoting clean child-friendly environment Sound security procedures Christ-centered academic value Strong curriculum
Business Recommendations Pricing and Financial Positioning
Startup costs: $8,000 to $10,000 Cut costs
Donations from area businesses Take inventory of volunteers
Pricing: At or below the competition
2 day/week 2 ½ hour session at $75 per month 3 day/week 2 ½ hour session at $100 per month
Tiered pricing Non-members pay full price Sister congregation members receive a 10% reduction and no
enrollment fee Members receive a 20% reduction and no enrollment fee discount
Business Recommendations Assessment of gross revenue:
Business Recommendations Assessment of expenses:
Preschool Students/Session 20 10
Variable
Summer Craft & Supplies $ - $ -
School Craft and Supplies 1,900 950
Summer Food and Beverage - -
School Food and Beverage - -
Total Variable $1,900 $950
Preschool Students/Session 20 10
Fixed
Principal or Director $ - $ -
Certified Teacher Salary 15,500 15,500
FT Teachers Aide Salary 12,000 -
Payroll Expenses for Aide and Teacher (Health & Life Ins, Pension, Taxes, Worker's Comp) 9,625 5,425
Summer Care Employees - -
Preschool Utilities Expense 1,800 1,800
Summer Care Utilities Expense - -
Liability Insurance 4,000 4,000
Advertising Expense 250 250
Total Fixed $43,175 $26,975
TOTAL COSTS $45,075 $27,925
Net Income (Loss) $18,125 $3,675
Business Recommendations Preschool Staffing
Maximum students at 20 per 1 session Student to Teacher ratio of 11 to 1 1 Teacher
B-3 license to supervise student teachers Student Teacher
$0 cost From area colleges Could cycle new student teachers throughout year
Teacher’s Aide Minimum requirements
Business Recommendations Sample Preschool Schedule
Business Recommendations - Before
77'-3"
72.0 in. x 36.0 in.
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Business Recommendations - After
77'-3"
48.0 in. x 30.0 in.
31.5 in. x31.5 in.
72.0 in. x 60.0 in.
48.0 in. x48.0 in.
Up
Up 0' 10.5" Rise: 10' 6" Run
Business Recommendations Additional Suggestions
Form volunteer task force Write policies and procedures Establish school calendar Build playground Marketing/Outreach Guided reading Music
Final Thought Starting a school is like planting
a tree…
In 20 years, this seed can become the largest tree in the forest!
Business Recommendations
Questions?