RPSEA Overview and Project Status

RPSEA Overview and Project Status

NCAR Earth System LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research

NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy for America

Greg Holland

1

Workshop ScheduleMonday 8 March: Overview and Methodology13:00-15:00 Overview and Project Status

13:00-13:40 Progress Overview (Greg Holland)13:40-14:05 Offshore Industry Perspective (Cort Cooper)14:05-14:35 GFDL Research (Tom Knutson)

14:35-15:00 Other Recent Research (Greg Holland) 15:00-15:20 Afternoon Tea 15:20-17:00 Methodology

15:20-15:45 Model Set-up (Cindy Bruyere)15:45-16:10 Sensitivity Studies (James Done)16:10-16:35 Comparison with Other Studies (Greg Holland)

16:35-17:00 Hurricane Intensity (Greg Holland)17:00-17:30 General Discussion17:30-18:30 Reception at NCAR,19:00 Dinner at Dushanbe 2Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

Workshop ScheduleTuesday 9 March: Results and Future Work08:30-10:35 Results Part 1

08:30-08:55 Identifying Model Hurricanes (Asuka Suzuki) 08:55-09:20 Hurricane Frequency (Asuka Suzuki)09:20-09:55 Statistical Downscaling (Cindy Bruyere)09:55-10:25 Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling (Asuka Suzuki )

10:30-11:00 Morning Tea 11:00-11:45 Results Part 2

10:45-12:00 Importance for Offshore Energy Industry (James Done)

11:45-13:00 Lunch (provided) and also a brief tour of NCAR for those who are interested

13:0-15:00 Wrap UpGeneral Discussion (Cort Cooper, Chair)Next Stages (Greg Holland, Chair)

15:00-16:00 Afternoon Tea and Informal Discussion, then close

3Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

Project Overview and Status


Task 1: Model Set-Up and Initial Testing

1. Analysis of 1995-2005 period. Done

2. Test and further develop and test two statistical downscaling approaches:

• Hurricane Genesis Potential (GP) climatological relationship of Emanuel and Nolan (2004); Done

• Development of a new downscaling technique to help specify the climatology of the more intense hurricanes using modeling simulations at 12 and 4 km resolution; Done


Genesis Potential IndexGP 105 RH 850

30

3 Vpot

70

3

1 0.1Vshear 2

absolute vorticity

Vpot potential intensity

Vshear shear between 850hPa and 200hPa

Emanuel and Nolan (2004)Camargo (2007)

Presentation on statistical downscaling by Cindy Bruyere


Channel Model Simulations

Observation1995 - 2000

Regional Model1995 - 2000

Presentation by James Done on model sensitivity and uncertainty


Task 2: Intermediate Testing

• 50-y simulations of current climate and comparisons of both atmosphere and GOM ocean: Done– Compare multiyear-trends in wind

shear in the North Atlantic hurricane latitudes of the free-running results to that in the assimilating results; Done, led to bias correction to CCSM

– Compare multi-year trends in mixed-layer ocean temperature. Done


Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisCCSM

Windshear Bias in CCSM

Presentation on model set up by Cindy Bruyere and comparison with other studies by Greg Holland

9

Regional Model: New Results

Presentation by Asuka Suzuki on Frequency


Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts

WRF12 kmWRF

36 km Imag

e by

Ste

ve D

ayo

@U

CA

R

CCSM ~ 150 km

CC

SM ~

150

km


Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts

• 11-y Time slices: 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055:– 36 km resolution; Done– 12 km resolution; Under way at

Argonne NL– Selected 4-km simulations; Awaiting 12

km

• New Task: 25 km global simulation with full CCSM. On hold


Additional Work

• New approach to identifying tropical cyclones in model simulations; Done

• Application of the Emanuel Statistical Downscaling method to hurricanes; Done

Presentations by Asuka Suzuki on cyclone identification and Emanuel Model, and by Cindy Bruyere on statistical downscaling.


Additional Work

• Development and application of the Willis Hurricane Index; Done

• Application of Extreme Value Theory to assessing intense hurricane changes based on model output. Done


Willis Hurricane Index

Average WHI vs Losses

R2 =0.91

3 2( ) 5( ) 5( )65 50 1525 65,

7, 7,

m h t

t m

t t

v R vWHI

For v and v

If v v

Presentation on Importance to Offshore Energy Industry by James Done


Application of EVT to NRCM Predictions

PE69=Cat5PE58-Cat4,5PE48=Major HurricanesPE32=Hurricanes

Presentation on extreme value theory by Greg Holland


Additional Work

• Paper to the Offshore Technology Conference 2010 (May):– Holland, G.J., J. Done, C. Bruyere, C. Cooper and A.

Suzuki, 2010: Model Investigations of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Future Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone Activity. OTC Metocean 2010

• Special Industry Session at the American Meteorological Society Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference (May)– Afternoon and evening sessions, 10 presentations and a

panel discussion.17Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

Overall Results


Impact on Gulf

Caveat on small size of area, which amplifies uncertainty.

Damage expected to stay reasonably stable, due to reduction in size countering increased intensity

Genesis Locations

25%

Summary• The required task list is largely

completed except for completion and analysis of the 12/4 km simulations, which are well on the way:• Task 1: Model Setup and Initial Testing is

completed• Task 2: Intermediate Testing is completed• Task 3: 50-y Forecasts: 36 km completed, 12

and 4 km under way, 25 km global on hold, all statistical downscaling completed.

• Additional work: Emanual downscaling, Willis Hurricane Index, Extreme value theory application, conference papers and sessions.

• New completion date of December 2010 will enable considerable further work and analysis to be provided

Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

RPSEA Overview and Project Status

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