Pronosticos Ado

8/17/2019 Pronosticos Ado

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“AÑO DE LA DIVERSIFICACIÓN PRODUCTIVA Y DELFORTALECIMIENTO DE LA EDUCACIÓN”

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL HERMILIO VALDIZÁN

FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS AGRARIAS

E.A.P. INGENIERIA AGROINDUSTRIAL

PRONOSTICOS (A.D.O)

ALUMNO: PICON MAYS, ABRAHAM ALDAIR

CURSO: ADMINISTRACION DE OPERACIONES

DOCENTE: ING. ESPINOZA BENANCIO, KLINTON

http://www.unheval.edu.pe/http://www.unheval.edu.pe/


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LEMA, VISION Y MISISON

VISION“Ser una unidad académica líder

en la región formando profesionales agroindustriales desólida preparación cientíca ytecnológica conresponsabilidad social”

MISIO“Ser una unidad acad

región formando agroindustriales de sólidcientíca y tecnológica c responsabilidad social”


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PRONOSTICOun “pronós!"o# $or%u&' un "ono"!%!(no pro)')&( so)r( un (*(n


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QUE ES EL PRONOSTICO “A

En (& &(n+u'( -( (%pr(s', s( su(&( (n(n-(r "o%o (s!%'"!ón 'n!"!p'-' -(& *'&or -( un' *'r!')&(

P! "#"$%&:

&' -(%'n-' -( un pro-u"o. En (& "on(o -( &' “-!s"!p&!n' (s &' Prosp("!*', (n un' pr!%(r' 'pro!%'"!ón '& "on"(po &'s s!+u!(n(s s(""!on(s3, un pronós!"o pu(-( -(0n!rs( "o%

-( &' 'p&!"'"!ón -( un %4o-o -( pr(-!""!ón 2"o%o &' (r'p(n 1u( p'r!(n-o -( -((r%!n'-'s s(r!(s -( -'os 2"u5' s(&r('&!7'rs( '%)!4n s(+8n r(+&'s %(ó-!"'s3, s( $or%u&' un'(n (& $uuro "on (& o)(!*o -( (*'&u'r &' o"urr(n"!' pro)')&'"on("!%!(no o (& -(s'rro&&o -( un' (n-(n"!'.


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VENTA'AS DEL PRONOST

Apo5' &' o%' -( -("!s!on(s (n -!s!n's 6r('s -( &'(%pr(s's9 (& pronós!"o -( *(n's '5u-'r6 ' -!s(:'pro-u""!ón, (& pronós!"o -( (*o&u"!ón -( pr("!os -( %'su%!n!sros (". s(r*!r6 '& p&'n!0"'-or, '& su%!n!sr'r un"on+ru(n( 5 ('"' ;1u( u!&!7' %o-(&os %'(%6!"os -'os


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FINALIDAD DE LOS PRONÓS

L' 0n'&!-'- -( &os pronós!"os (s pr(-("!r (& -(s'rro&&o $uuro 2-( un(nornos (".3 p'r' '5u-'r ' &' o%' -( -("!s!on(s 2-( p&'n!0"'"!ón-( 'po5o, "onr'%(-!-'s u or's '""!on(s 1u( !n=u5'n, (n %'5orso)r( &' (n-(n"!' -(& o)(o p&'n!0"'-o.

Con r(sp("o ' (s' 0n'&!-'-, (& "on"(po -( pronós!"o pu(-( pr("!s'rs“-!$(r(n"!'# (nr( !n*(s!+'"!ón 5 pronós!"o9

En (& "'so -( &' !n*(s!+'"!ón 2)8s1u(-' -( "ono"!%!(nos3 (n“po&/!"'#, “"!(n"!'# o “("ono%/'#, (& puno -( p'r!-' (s &' !n$or(s'-o -(& o)(o

2(n !n*(s!+'"!ón "!(n/0"'9 (& “s'( o$


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PRONOSTICOS


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PRONOSTICOS


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IMPORTANCIA ESTRATGICPRONÓSTICO

E& o)(!*o -( un pronós!"o (s r(-u"!r &' !n"(r!-u%)r( '"(r"' '"on("(r (n (& $uuro propor"!on'n-o !n$or%'"!ón "(r"'n' ' &' r('&o%'r -("!s!on(s.

L' $or%u&'"!ón -( pronós!"o 2o pro5(""!ón3 (s un' 4"n!"' p'r' u!p's'-'s "on &' 0n'&!-'- -( pr(-("!r (p("'!*'s -(& $uuro.

En &'s or+'n!7'"!on(s &os pronós!"os s( u!&!7'n p'r' r(s propós

>3 D("!-!r s! &' -(%'n-' (s su0"!(n( p'r' us!0"'r &' (nr'-' '& %(

?3 D((r%!n'r &'s n("(s!-'-(s ' &'r+o p&'7o -( &' "'p'"!-'- p!ns'&'"!on(s.

@3 D((r%!n'r &'s =u"u'"!on(s ' "oro p&'7o (n &' -(%'n-' p'r' &'pro-u""!ón, &' pro+r'%'"!ón -( &' $u(r7' -( r')'o, &' p&'n('"!ón

5 or's n("(s!-'-(s.


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CARACTERISTICAS DE LADEMANDA D(%'n-'9 C'n!-'- -( un )!(n -( "onsu%o 1u( s( -(s(' "o%un %(r"'-o.

E!s(n -os !pos -( -(%'n-'9

>. D(%'n-' -(p(n-!(n(9 Es &' -(%'n-' -( un pro-u"o o s(r*!-(r!*' -( &' -(%'n-' -( oros pro-u"os o s(r*!"!os.

?. D(%'n-' !n-(p(n-!(n(9 Es' -(%'n-' no s( -(r!*' -!r("'%-( oros pro-u"os.

Los pronós!"os -( &' -(%'n-' pu(-(n s(r "r("!(n(s o -("r("!(

(n(r n'ur'&(7' &!n('& o no &!n('&


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METODOS CUALITATIVO

S( +(n(r'n ' p'r!r -( !n$or%'"!ón 1u( no !(n( un' (sru)!(n -(0n!-'. Es( !po -( pronós!"o r(su&' 8!& "u'n--!spon!)!&!-'- -( !n$or%'"!ón


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C*+&,- - &- +"!/- 0" 1"

V'&or'"!ón. S( (n"u(nr' (nr( &os %4o-os -( pro

"o%8n%(n( u!&!7'-os, p(ro por -(s+r'"!' '%)!4

&os %(nos "on0')&(s. Y' 1u( (s6 )'s'-o (n &'

pro$(s!on'& -( "'-' p(rson', 5 %u"


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'+!-0 0" %223 "#"4+,

S(+8n (& In+. Ro+(r Co


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M5,0 D"&%62. !&!7' p'n(&(s -( (p(ros (sp("/0"os (n (& 6r(' p'r' &

-(s'rro&&' &' (n"u(s', -on-( "'-' (p(ro -(s'rro&&'

pronos!"o -(spu4s, (& "onuno -( pronós!"os +(n(r'-"o&("!*!-'- (s -!sr!)u!-o (nr( o-os &os (p(ros, &o "u'& p("'-' uno %o-!01u( sus pro5(""!on(s "on )'s( (n &' !n$or%'"-(%6s. L' !-(' (s o)(n(r, %(-!'n( &' r(p(!"!ón -( (s'p'sos, un "ons(nso '"(r"' -(& pronós!"o


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I1"*,27-423 0" $"!4-0

En"u(s' -(& %(r"'-o. Son "u(s!on'r!os (sru"

s( (n*/'n ' &os "&!(n(s po(n"!'&(s -(& %(r"'-o

so&!"!' su op!n!ón '"(r"' -( pro-u"os o

po(n"!'&(s, 5 %u"


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A-&78- 0" 424&* 0" 120

Es u!&!7'-o "u'n-o (& pro-u"o (s n"on"(po (s )'s'n( s!%p&(9 s( )'


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M5,0* 4+-,2,-,21*

Esos por (& "onr'r!o -( &os pronós!"os "u'&!'!*os, s! n("


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S"!2"* 0" ,2"$%

To-os &os pronós!"os -( s(r!( -( !(%po p'r(n, )6s!"'

supu(so "o%8n9 1u( &' -(%'n-' p's'-' s!+u( "!(ro p'

(s( p'rón pu(-( s(r 'n'&!7'-o po-r6 u!&!7'rs( p'

pro5(""!on(s p'r' &' -(%'n-' $uur', supon!(n-o 1

"on!n8' 'pro!%'-'%(n( -( &' %!s%' $or%'. C's! o-o

-( pronós!"os -( s(r!( -( !(%po !n(n'n "'pur'

%'(%6!"' &os p'ron(s su)5'"(n(s -( &' -(%'n-' p's'


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P!$"02* $312&"* *2$%

Co%o su no%)r( &o !n-!"', n'-' %6s 1u( (& pro%(-!o %&os 8&!%os p(r!o-os r("!(n(s -( &' -(%'n-' r('&. L' ("up'r' o)(n(r&os !(n( &' s!+u!(n( $or%'9

AnFA2nF>3FFA>n

Don-(9

(s (& pronós!"o.

(s (& p(r!o-o -( !(%po '"u'&, &o 1u( s!+n!0"' 1u( (sp'r' (& p(r!o-o -( !(%po '"u'&.

A (s &' -(%'n-' r('& (n (& p(r!o-o , 5

n (s (& nu%(ro -( p(r!o-os 1u( s( u!&!7'


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EEMPLO

Los pro%(-!os %ó*!&(s s!%p&(s por &o +(n(r'& no -()(n u!&!7'rs( p'r' pron"u'n-o &' !n$or%'"!ón "&'r'%(n( s!+u( '&+8n !po -( (n-(n"!' o p'rón "/"&!"o

E& 4r%!no %ó*!& !n-!"' 1u( "on$or%( s( !(n( -!spon!)&( un' nu(*' o)s(r*'!(%po, s( r((%p&'7' &' o)s(r*'"!ón %6s 'n!+u' -( &' ("u'"!ón 5 s( "'&"u&' Co%o r(su&'-o, (& pro%(-!o "'%)!'r6 (s -("!r, s( %o*(r6, '& !r 1u(-'n-oo)s(r*'"!on(s.

n pro%(-!o %ó*!& s!%p&( r(su&'r6 s!(%pr( %(nor 1u( &os -'os (n 'u%(n-'os (n -!s%!nu"!ón. Por &o 'no, s! 'p'r("(n '%p&!'s (&(*'"!on(s o "'%ó*!&(s s!%p&(s no s( -(s(%p(:'r6n )!(n. S( 'us'n %(or ' -'os "on p(

-'n-o '&+un' (s')!&!-'- $r(n( ' p(rur)'"!on(s '&('or!'s.


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P!$"02* $312&"* %0"!

Son )6s!"'%(n( &o %!s%o 1u( &os pro%(-!os %ó*!&(s s!%p&("on un' ("(p"!ón !%por'n(. Con &os pro%(-!os %ó*!&(s po(& p(so 's!+n'-o ' "'-' puno -( -(%'n-' p's'-o 1u( s( u"6&"u&o pu(-( *'r!'r. D( (s' $or%' (s pos!)&( 's!+n'r %'5or ' "!(ros punos -( !n$or%'"!ón, por &o +(n(r'& '& puno -( %6s r("!(n(. Por &o 1u( (& "r!(r!o 1u( supon( 1u( &os -r("!(n(s "on!(n(n %'5or !n$or%'"!ón 5 por &o 'no, !%por'n(s 1u( &os -'os %6s 'n!+uos, pu(-( pon(rs( (n pr6

un pro%(-!o %ó*!& pon-(r'-o.

L' ("u'"!ón )6s!"' p'r' "'&"u&'r pro%(-!os %ó*!&(s pon-(r's!+u!(n( 2&' *!(n( -( (!+


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S+-12/-423 "9%"42

E& su'*!7'-o (pon(n"!'& s!%p&( (s oro %4o-o u!&!7'-o p'r' su'*!7'r'&('or!'s (n (& p'rón -( -(%'n-'. L's -os $or%u&'s 2%'(%6!"'%(1u( s( (%p&('n %6s "o%8n%(n( p'r' "'&"u&'r&o son9

E& *'&or -( '&$' 3 s!(%pr( s( (n"u(nr' (nr( "(ro 5 uno, -'-o ' 1u( (no s( ':'-( n!n+un' p'r( -(& (rror 5 (& pronós!"o s!(%pr( (s (%!(nr's 1u( s! (1u!*'&( ' uno s( ':'-!r6 (& (rror "o%p&(o -(& prr('&!7'r/' n!n+un' su'*!7'"!ón.

S( ((%p&!0"'r' "on (& ((r"!"!o -( &' un!-'-9

!&!7'n-o "o%o J.?, J. 5 J. p'r' *(r "ó%o s( "o%por' (& pronós

-(& (rror.


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EEMPLO


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TENDENCIA LINEAL

L' %(or $or%' -( pronos!"'r un' (n-(n"!' &!n('& s(r6 ' r(+r(s!ón s!%p&(


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R"&-42"* C-+*-&"*.

L's r(&'"!on(s "'us'&(s son &os 'n6&!s!s -( r(+r(s!ón 5 "orr(&'"!ón -((r%!n'r 'no &' n'ur'&(7' "o%o &' $u(r7' -( un' r(&'"!ón (nr( -os *'

En (& 'n6&!s!s -( r(+r(s!ón s( -(s'rro&&'r6 un' ("u'"!ón -( (s!%'"!ón, ' $ór%u&' %'(%6!"' 1u( r(&'"!on' &'s *'r!')&(s "ono"!-'s "on &' *'r!')&( -

L' *'r!')&( "ono"!-'. *'r!')&( !n-(p(n-!(n(

L' *'r!')&( 1u( r''%os -( pr(-("!r s( &&'%' *'r!')&( -(p(n-!(n( Y


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R"7!"*23 *2$%&"

L' r(+r(s!ón, "ono"!-' (n o"'s!on(s "o%o “&/n(' -( %(un' 4"n!"' (s'-/s!"' p'r' !n(n'r 'us'r un' &/n(' '"onuno -( punos %(-!'n( (& uso -(& %/n!%o (rror "(nr( &os punos r('&(s 5 &os punos so)r( &' &/n('. n' -(-( &' r(+r(s!ón (s 1u( p(r%!( -((r%!n'r ("u'"!on(s(n-(n"!'.

E& pr!%(r p'so p'r' -((r%!n'r s! (!s( un' r(&'"!ón (nr(

(s ('%!n'r &' +r60"' -( -'os o)s(r*'-os. A (s' +r60-!'+r'%' -( -!sp(rs!ón.

n -!'+r'%' -( -!sp(rs!ón s( pu(-( !-(n!0"'r *!su'&%1u( !n-!1u( s! &'s *'r!')&(s (s6n r(&'"!on'-'s.


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ORMLAS


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P'r' po-(r r('&!7'r nu(sro pronós!"o nos $'&' "'&"u&'r9

Don-(9 ' Y )

' or-(n'-' Y

) p(n-!(n( -( &' ("u'"!ón %(-!' -( &os *'&or(s -( &' *'r!')&( !n-(p(n-!(n(

Y %(-!' -( &os *'&or(s -( &' *'r!')&( -(p(n-!(n(


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EEMPLO

A %(nu-o 1u!(n(s


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R"7!"*23 $&,2%&"

L' pr!n"!p'& *(n'' -( &' r(+r(s!ón %8&!p&( (s 1u( nos p

%6s !n$or%'"!ón -!spon!)&( p'r' (s!%'r &' *'r!')&( -(

'&+un's o"'s!on(s &' "orr(&'"!ón (nr( -os *'r!')&(s p

!nsu0"!(n( p'r' -((r%!n'r un' ("u'"!ón -( (s!%'"!ón

(%)'r+o, s! '+r(+'%os &os -'os -( %6s *'r!')&(s !n

po-(%os -((r%!n'r un' ("u'"!ón -( (s!%'"!ón 1ur(&'"!ón "on %'5or pr("!s!ón.


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Mon!or(o 5 "onro& -( &os pron

Co%o &o !n-!"' (& pro"(so '-%!n!sr'!*o, (s' s(r/' &'

-on-( (n-r(%os 1u( *(r!0"'r nu(sros p(-!-os r('&(s 2*

nu(sros pronós!"os. S! (sos -!0(r(n -(%'s!'-o, nos !n

'p&!"'%os (& %(or %4o-o s! (so o"urr( $r("u(n(%(

(n-r(%os 1u( (%p(7'r -( nu(*o 5 pon(r (sp("!'&%(n

nu(sro -!'+r'%' -( -!sp(rs!ón p'r' o)s(r*'r &'s pos!)&(

(&(+!r (& %(or %4o-o -( pronos!"o


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Pronós!"os "on "o%pu'-o

n' '5u-' p'r' &' r('&!7'"!ón -( pronós!"os, (s (

"o%pu'-or' "o%o por ((%p&o (& uso -(& so$'r( O"(

s(


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