Nils-Axel Morner

8/9/2019 Nils-Axel Morner

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No Alarming Sea Level Rise Nature

against IPCC Observations vsModels

Nils-Axel Mrner

Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden

[email protected]

President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)

Leader ofthe Maldives Sea Level Project(2000-2009+) Co-

ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)


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most Changes have Pros and Cons

Global Warming in particular

but there is nothing good to come from

A Rapid Sea Level Rise

Therefore this is

the Only Real Threat

though, in fact,

Utterly Wrong !

quod erat demonstrandum


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This is what it is all about

Observational facts or Model output

?


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the motivation behind sea level claims differs significantly


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We have done very detailed sea level studis in

The Maldives

(doomed to be flooded in 50-100 years)

sea has been higher before

sea fell ~20 cm in the 1970s sea has remained stable for the last 30 years


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Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100

No reasons for any alarm. Sea

level has been stable for the last 30 years. Maximum future

change may be a return to a pre-1970 level


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Presidentin water

Cabinet under water

Past-Present-Future sea level changes

no threat at all !


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I recently investigated the situation in Bangladesh

(Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63, 2010)

Bangladesh

(doomed to experience terrible disasters)

sea is not rising, but stable

it even fell a little some 40-50 years ago

similar trends are recorded in India and

the Maldives


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Coastal Erosion !Sea is Rising !

The IPCCers say


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Coastal Erosion yesBut No Rise in Sea Level

As clearly indicated by the root system

spreading horizontally at

just the same level as in the forest behind


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Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh

There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh


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A presently ongoing rapid sea level rise has been claimed for

Tuvalu and Vanuatu

the truth is quite different:

sea has remained stable in Tuvalu

sea has also remained stable in Vanuatu


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Tuvalu tide gauge record

8 years of slow rise (instalaton subsidence?) is followed by

22 years of stability i.e. no sea level risethe 3 low levels represent ENSO-events


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North-west Europe isanother excellent test area

there is a eustatic curve for 1690-1970 sea has not risen in the last 40-50 years

No Rapid Sea Level Rise can

be traced


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Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (for NW Europe)

(from Mrner, 1973)


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From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm blue line

the Earths rate of rotation (LOD) 10 cm green


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COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD

A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of a

long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and a

sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering


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Satellite AltimetryA wonderful new tool to measure the

ocean level but

from where does the tilt come?

in 2000: variability around a stable zero

in 2003: a tilt of 2.3 mm/yrs


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Satelite Altimetry

by 2000 a stable trend

by 2003 a rising trend

due to personal calibration


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It exhibits a clear dominance of the 18.6 years tidal cycle

around a stable zero-level

50 years sea level record from French Guiana-Surinam

Satellite altimitry gives a rise of ~3 mm/yr in this area

there is a message in the difference


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The rate of glacial eustatic rise

after LGM was ~10 mm/yr and

sets the ultimate limit of

possible sea level changes in thepresent century (yellow).


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Thermal Expansion


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CONCLUSIONSNo sea level rise recorded:

in the Maldives in Tuvalu

in Vanuatu

in Bangladesh

in Qatar

in Venice

in NW Europe

Thermalexpansion is

small


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A: sea level changes based on observational facts B:

selected tide-gauge records (IPCC) C:

Topex/Poseidon record after personal calibration

D: Topex/Poseidon withoutpersonal calibration


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If sea level would be rapidly rising following the law of angular

momentum the Earth should experience a deceleration. This is

NOT the case Why is this?

because Sea is Not Rising of course


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CONCLUSIONS

the observational records (curve

A) is correct the IPCC models (curves B-C)are wrong


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without a flooding conceptthere is not much of a threat left in IPCC

the tiger has lost its teeth

maybe it was not even a real tiger

just a blown-up balloon-dummy

D t th t i fl ti f th t


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Dont worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past

nothing more, nothing less just the same old story


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190 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate out of 534 papers totally

Mrner, N.-A., 2007

The Greatest Lie Ever Told.1st ed. 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd ed. 2010, 20 pp.

for saleduring the meeting


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References(just a few selected)

Mrner, N.-A., 2004. Changing sea levels. In:Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences(M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 229-232.

Mrner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global PlanetaryChange, 40, 49-54.

Mrner, N.-A., 2007. Sea level changes and tsunamis, environmental stress andmigration overseas. The case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales

Asienforum, 38, 353-374.

Mrner, N.-A. 2010. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level andits changes with time. Quaternary International, on line January 25, 2010.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044

Mrner, N.-A., 2010. Sea level changes in Bangladesh. New observational facts.Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63.

Mrner, N.-A., 2010. Solar Minima, Earths Rotation and Little Ice Ages in thePast and in the Future. The North Atlantic European case. Global PlanetaryChange, in press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044

Nils-Axel Morner

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