Late Holocene and Present Sea Level Changes

Nils-Axel Mörner

President (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution

Leader of the Maldives Project (from 2000-2005 on); an international research project among sea level specialists

Co-ordinator of the INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1998-2003)

Head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, Sweden

In the hot international sea level debate for 35 years

morner@pog.nu (www.pog.su.se/sea) www.pog.nu

Many variables control the stability of a shoreline

Sea Level Rose for glacial eustatic reasons up to

about 5000 BP.

after that, global sea level has been dominated by the redistribution

of ocean water masses (and by that ocean stored energy)

In a feed-back couplingin the interchange of angular momentum

(rate of rotation)between the hydrosphere and solid Earth

by that driving the ocean surface circulationand its redistribution of

water masses & heat(sea level & paleoclimate)

“Horizontal Eustasy”

Ocean Level RedistributionI have argued for over 20 years

that sea level is changing drastically

due to redistribution of water masses

over the globeand even claimed that thisis the dominating factor

for the last 5000 years

Satellite altimetryrecords this differential

distribution of water massedbetween 1993 and 2000

Despite the factthat we do not

accept the proposedon-going rise in sea level

Present-to-Future Sea Level Changes: methods used and values obtained

The combined observational records (in mm/year) for the last 300 years.It shows variations – ups and downs – but no trend.

For year 2100, INQUA gives predictions in line with this record,whilst the IPCC scenarios lie far above – way off – observational data

The new sea level curve of the Maldives; present level reached ~4000 BP, sea level strongly oscillating for regional dynamic reasons, a drop in sea

level ~1970, no rise in the last 30 years.

At ~1970

Sea Level fell some 20 cm

Causing erosion

with sand deposition

outward, downward

Leaving an old fossil shore and

an old overgrewing surface of grey weathered corals.

The present shore

has remained stable

for ~30 years

Exploring some notorious sites

claimed to be in a ”flooding mode”

The Maldives: No rise but stability and fall ~1970

Tuvalu: No rising trend (tide gauge date from 1978)

Vanuatu: No rising trend (tide gauge data from 1993)

Venice: No acceleration (rather the opposite ~1970)

Eastern Mediterranean: Rise due to precipitation increase

Satellite altimetry is a new and important means of recording sea level.The 1993-1999 record show NO rising trend.

Just a variability around a zero level (blue) + a major ENSO event (yellow).

This data set was presented on the TOPEX/POSEIDON web-page, in their publications, and used by me in my paper in Global and Planetary Changes, vol. 40, 2004, p. 49-54

In 2003, a totally new record appeared on the web-pageNow there was a trend of 2.3 mm/year.

This trend, however, comes from selected tide gauge recordsnot satellite altimetry measurements

The ”flooding scenario” of IPCC does not concur with observational sea level facts. Therefore, it must be called-off as a mistake.

Today, we favour a 2100 value of +5 cm +15 cm

There is no global sea level rise going onthat will flood islands and low-lying coasts in the near-future

It is high time to face available observational facts,discard untenable model scenaria

and start discussing real threats in the real world

Today I launch a short book

entitled:

The Greatest Lie Ever Told

unfortunately I have to charge

15 Australian dollars for it