National Circumstances and Greenhouse Gas Inventory InformationDenmark's experience with reporting in NC3

by Erik RasmussenDanish Environmental Protection Agency, Ministry of the Environment

UNFCCC Workshop onThe Preparation of the Fourth National Communication from Annex I Parties

30 September – 1 October 2004Dublin, Ireland

This presentation:

1. Institutional arrangements

2. GHG emission trends in Denmark

3. Key drivers behind Denmark’s GHG emission trends

4. Consistency of time series and reporting of PAMs

5. The In-Depth Review

1. Institutional arrangements

GHG inventories in NC3

• The National Environmental Research Institute• Co-ordinate and compile the GHG emission inventory, and submit it to the UNFCCC

and the EC• Estimates emissions from energy, industry, solvents, agriculture and waste

• The Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (now just: “F&L”)• Input on carbon emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry

• The Danish Environmental Protection Agency (via a consulting company)• Emissions related to consumption of fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6)

CoverageDenmark:• All gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6)• All sectors (CORINAIR -> IPCC/UNFCCC -> 6 Economic sectors)

Greenland and Faroe Islands:• Greenland (CO2 from energy) and Faroe Islands (CO2, CH4 and N2O)

2a. GHG emission trends in Denmark

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Energy

Energy industries

Energy use in industries

Transport

Energy use in other sectors

Industrial processes

Land-use change and forestry

Total emissions w ithout LUCF

International bunkers

Carbon dioxide emissions, percentage change from 1990, by source

Source: FCCC/IDR.3/DNK

2b. GHG emission trends in Denmark

Methane emissions, percentage change from 1990, by source

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Agriculture

Enteric fermentation

Manure management

Waste

Total emissions

Source: FCCC/IDR.3/DNK

2c. GHG emission trends in Denmark

Nitrous oxide emissions, percentage change from 1990, by source

- 2 5

- 1 0

5

2 0

3 5

5 0

1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

En e r g y

A g r ic u ltu r e

T o ta l e m is s io n s

Source: FCCC/IDR.3/DNK

2d. GHG emission trends in Denmark

Fluorinated gases emissions in Gg, inventories 1990-2001 and projections 2002-2017

0100200300400500600700800900

KP

Bas

e Y

ear

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

HFCs PFCs SF6

3a. Key drivers behind Denmark’s GHG emission trends

• Inter-annual weather variations: ±(10-20)% in CO2 from energy• Temperature: If low --> Increase in emissions• Precipitation: If low in the other Nordic countries -> Increase in emissions

• Long-term trend 1990-2001 when adjusted: -12 % (GDP: + 27%)

- Due to decreases from:• Fuel switching from coal to natural gas and renewables (biomass and wind) in

the energy industry• Increased share of CHP• Energy efficiency improvements in energy end-use sectors• Improved manure and fertiliser management in the agricultural sector (APAE)• Improved efficiency in milkproduction and shift from dairy cattle to pigs

- Despite increases in:• Transport emissions (both CO2 and N2O)• Emissions of F-gases

4a. Consistency of time series and reporting of PAMs

GHGs emissions and projections (Gg CO2 equivalents) KP Base Year 1990 1991 1992

Denmark's Total national Emissions and Removals (KP Net Emissions)in the base scenario ("with measures", i.e. implemented and adopted measures)calculated in accordance with the legal commitment under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement

69518 69217 79909 73456

Denmark's Total KP Removals 0 0 -1 -3

Total Emissions/Removals with LUCF (CC Net Emissions with Greenland & Faroe Islands) 67024 67472 78125 71625Greenland's Total Emissions/Removals (preliminary data and for CO2 only) 624 624 609 594Faroe Island's Total Emissions/Removals (preliminary data and for CO2, CH4 and N2O only) 0 750 725 693

Denmark's Total Emissions/Removals with LUCF (CC Net Emissions without Greenland & Faroe Islands) 66400 66099 76791 70338Denmark's Total Emissions without LUCF 69518 69217 79910 73459

1. Energy 52386 52386 63114 57142 A Fuel Combustion Activities (Sectoral Approach) 52052 52052 62495 56513 1 Energy Industries 26502 26502 35554 30488 a Public Electricity and Heat Production 25070 25070 34025 28744 b Petroleum Refining 908 908 993 1127 c Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries 524 524 536 618 2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction 5676 5676 6087 5947 a Iron and Steel 0 0 0 0 b Non-Ferrous Metals 0 0 0 0 c Chemicals 0 0 0 0 d Pulp, Paper and Print 0 0 0 0 e Food Processing, Beverages and Tobacco 0 0 0 0 f Other (please specify: (1) Boilers, gas turbines, stationary engines and (2) Industry mobile sources and machinery) 5676 5676 6087 5947 3 Transport 10608 10608 11129 11275 a Civil Aviation 220 220 199 195 b Road Transportation 9537 9537 9973 10162 c Railways 301 301 306 323

2014 2015 2016 2017 2008-2012 2013-2017

78446 77795 77505 77517 80061 78306

-400 -441 -479 -503 -283 -444

74988 74337 74047 74059 76603 7484878846 78236 77984 78019 80344 78750

65360 64874 64766 64908 66451 6539464516 64070 63967 64110 65595 6457434184 33582 33314 33290 36055 3408231080 30525 30280 30255 32556 30977

995 995 995 995 995 9952109 2063 2040 2040 2504 21107689 7795 7895 7992 7212 7790

0 00 00 00 00 0

7689 7795 7895 7992 7212 779014785 14851 14924 15003 14416 14856

237 243 250 257 211 24314116 14176 14243 14314 13773 14181

204 204 204 204 204 204

4b. Consistency of time series and reporting of PAMs

Table from NC3 showing how the IPCC sectors have been aggregated intothe 6 economic sectors described in Chapter 4 on Policies and Measures and Chapter 5 on projections of NC3:

Sector in NC3 Sources/Sectors in the IPCC/UNFCCC CRF formatEnergy Includes production,

conversion and distribution.1A1: Fuel Combustion in Energy Industries1B : Fugetive Emissions from Fuels

Transport Military included here. 1A3: Fuel Combustion in Transport1A5: Other (Fuel Combustion in Military Transport)

Business sector Includes manufacturing,service and trade and theindustrial gases.

1A2 : Fuel Combustion in Manufacturing Industries and Construction1A4a: Fuel Combustion in Commercial/Institutional2 : Industrial Processes3 : Solvent and other Product Use

Agriculture,forestry andfisheries

1A4c: Fuel Combustion in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries4 : Agriculture5 : Land-Use Change and Forestry

Domestic sector 1A4b: Fuel Combustion in Residential

Waste Only includes methane fromSolid Waste Disposal, becauseemissions from WasteIncineration with energy use isincluded under ”Energy” inaccordance with IPCC.

6 : Waste

4c. Consistency of time series and reporting of PAMs GHGs emissions and projections KP Base Year 1990 1991 1992

Sector aggregation in Climate 2012 (estimates for Denmark in accordance with the Climate Convention):Emissions and removals:Energy (production, conversion and distribution) 26836 36173 31118Transport (military mobile fuel use is included here) 10728 11420 11418Agriculture and forestry (mobile fuel use in fisheries is included here) 13722 13580 12848Trade, industry and services (secondary and tertiary industries) 8266 8789 8678Households 5236 5492 4916Waste 1310 1338 1361Total 66099 76791 70338

Distribution by sectors:Energy (production, conversion and distribution) 40,6 47,1 44,2Transport (military mobile fuel use is included here) 16,2 14,9 16,2Agriculture and forestry (mobile fuel use in fisheries is included here) 20,8 17,7 18,3Trade, industry and services (secondary and tertiary industries) 12,5 11,4 12,3Households 7,9 7,2 7,0Waste 2,0 1,7 1,9Total 100,0 100,0 100,0

Trends in compare to the CC base year 1990 (=index 100):Energy (production, conversion and distribution) 100 135 116Transport (military mobile fuel use is included here) 100 106 106Agriculture and forestry (mobile fuel use in fisheries is included here) 100 99 94Trade, industry and services (secondary and tertiary industries) 100 106 105Households 100 105 94Waste 100 102 104Total 100 116 106

2017 2008-2012 2013-2017

34087 36910 3490215220 14643 15076

9807 10018 984910857 10413 10783

3844 4046 3894583 914 684

74399 76943 75188

45,8 48,0 46,420,5 19,0 20,113,2 13,0 13,114,6 13,5 14,3

5,2 5,3 5,20,8 1,2 0,9

100,0 100,0 100,0

127 138 130142 136 141

71 73 72131 126 130

73 77 7445 70 52

113 116 114

5. The In-Depth Review

Compliance with the guidelines:• The review team noted that the inventory section of the NC3 conforms with the UNFCCC Guidelines.• It includes a summary of the reporting tables with emission estimates and emission trends.• The factors and drivers underlining emission trends are clearly explained.• The inventory data reported in the NC3 are consistent with the data from the 2003 inventory submission and the review team did not identify any differences between the two data sets.

Emission sources:• In terms of emission sources, the inventory includes estimates of all major sources as required by the IPCC guidelines.• Sources that are not yet encompassed: limestone and dolomite use, soda ash production and use, asphalt roofing, road paving with asphalt, nitric acid production, pulp and paper, agricultural soils (CH4 emissions), forest and grassland conversion, abandonment of managed lands, and CO2 emissions and removals from soil. • The review team encouraged Denmark to include potentially missing sources in the inventory and to provide a clear explanation of why they are not included.• The review team noted some inconsistencies in the use of notation keys.

Thank you for your attention !