JPI Climate GB, AmsterdamMay 10th 2012

Sylvie JoussaumeChair of ENES Board

Coordinator of IS-ENES

ENEShtt //http://enes.org

A network of European groups in climate/Earth system modelingLaunched in 2001 by Guy Brasseur (MOU)

M h 40 f d i bli d i d i l ldMore than 40 groups from academic, public and industrial world

Main focus : discuss strategy to accelerate progress in li t /E th t d lli d d t diclimate/Earth system modelling and understanding

Several EU projectsSeveral EU projectsFP6: PRISM, FP6: ENSEMBLES,

FP7: METAFOR, COMBINE, IS-ENES, EUCLIPSE, EMBRACEIS-ENES2, SPECSIS ENES2, SPECS

Collaboration with PRACE

Scientific Board : S Joussaume J C André J Mitchell T Palmer Scientific Board : S. Joussaume, J.C. André, J. Mitchell, T. Palmer, J. Marotzke, R. Budich, A. Navarra, P. Kabat, B. Lawrence

IS-ENES : Infrastructure for ENES IS-ENES : Infrastructure for ENES FP7 project « Integrating Activities »

1rst phase: 2009-20122nd phase: 2013 2016

http://is.enes.org/

2nd phase: 2013-2016

Infrastructure :Models and their environment

Users : The ENES communityModels and their environment

Model dataInterface with HPC ecosystem

The ENES communityRegional climate models

Impact studies

Europe : 7 global climate modelsCMCC, COSMOS, EC-Earth, Hadley, IPSL, Meteo-France , NorESM

Support to international databases : CMIP5 & CORDEX

Objectives:Foster the integration of the European ESM communityFoster the development of ESMs pFoster high-end simulations Foster application of ESM simulations for climate change impacts

Foresight exercice to prepare the strategy

Foresight meetingsMontvillargennes, March 2010 & Hamburg, Feb 2011

Writing team: J. Mitchell, R. Budich, S. Joussaume, B. Lawrence & J. Marotzke

52 contributors from BE, CZ, DE, DK, FI, FR, IT, NO, SE, SP, UK

Drivers : Science & Society

From understanding to the development of “Climate Services”

K i tiKey science questionsWhat is needed to provide reliable predictions of regional changes in

climate? How predictable is climate ? What is the sensitivity of climate (feedbacks, nonlinear behaviours) ? C d l d d t d l i l i t l i l l ? Can we model and understand glacial-interglacial cycles ? Can we attribute observed signals and understand processes ?

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

A grand Challenge : g gtowards 1 km scale global model

Issues:Resolving deep convective cloudsAvoiding regional model biases

P.L. Vidale pers comm

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

Another important Challenge : Estimate uncertaintiesEstimate uncertainties

Issues: Internal : decadal predictionp

Model: need for diversityScenarios: socio-economic issue

internali

20 40 60 80 yrs

scenario

d lmodelHawkins and Sutton, BAMS, 2009

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

For both Challenges:

Very demanding on high-Very demanding on high-performance computing

Need large data storage

EO, Data Assim

Revisit climate models

Data Assim.

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

RECOMMANDATIONS

HPCAccess to world-class HPC

d d f li l d di d liadapted for climate at least up to dedicated to climateNeed for an integrated HPC ecosystem: European & NationalCollaborate with PRACE EU InfrastructureC C

MODELSMODELS

Strengthen European collaboration for model developmentSt e gt e u opea co abo at o o ode deve op e tMaintain scientific diversity but harmonise technical developments

Prepare models for future HPC architectures (highly parallel)Improve model parameterisations

8

Temperature change (°C)Historical and RCP8.5 – European models

IPSLCMIP5

6

4METOHADGEM2

2

MPI M0

MPI-M

1850 1900 1950 210020502000

CNRMClimate change projections

UIB

CMIP5: Strong international effort

C 8 5 NORESMRCP8.5(2021-2040) minus (1986-2000)

8

Temperature change (°C)Historical and RCP8.5 – European models

IPSLCMIP5

6

4METOHADGEM2

2

MPI M0

MPI-M

1850 1900 1950 210020502000

CNRMClimate change projections

UIB

CMIP5: Strong international effort

C 8 5 NORESMRCP8.5(2021-2040) minus (1986-2000)

Decadal prediction

Jan-Nov 2011 predicted temperature anomalies, start date 1 Jan 2011

D S ith d A S if

No initialisation

D. Smith and A. Scaife

J. Marotzke pers comm

IS-ENES, Circle2 Eranet and EEAData needs for the impact community

Copenhaguen 11-12 january 2011Copenhaguen, 11 12 january 2011

Access to both global and regional climate change simulations

Need for processing tools and processed data

Provide guidance on uncertainties and how to use climate models resultsProvide guidance on uncertainties and how to use climate models results

Eventually provide different sources of information in one linked system (virtual portal)(virtual portal)

Improve access to data and training

IS-ENESENES Portal Interface for the Climate Impact Communities

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

DATADATAIntegrate distributed databases

CMIP5 & CORDEX, metadata & common standardsLarge data storage commensurate with HPCDevelop interoperability with observationsDevelop interface with the impact communities

WORKFORCE

Develop interface with the impact communities

Strengthen the network: Share developmentsDevelop training: Earth System science, computingN d f hNeed for human resources

ENES: Develop the European infrastructure for climate modellingwithin international collaboration

Infrastructure strategy for ENESfor the next 10 yearsfor the next 10 years

Recommandations:

1) Access to world-class HPC for climate

2) Develop the next generation of climate models

3) Set up data infrastructure (global and regional models) for large range of users from impact communityrange of users from impact community

4) Improve physical network (eg link national archives)

5) Strengthen european expertise and networking5) Strengthen european expertise and networking

Input to IS-ENES2

ENESENESTowards a European Climate Infrastructure Initiative :

a sustainable virtual laboratory

Thank you Thank you

Credits: SeaWiFS Project NASA/GSFC & Orbimage

IS-ENES2 Second Phase of ENES InfrastructureSecond Phase of ENES InfrastructureNew proposal submitted 23 Nov 2011

4 years /2013-2016

Objectives:Foster the integration of the European ESM community

Governance, update of strategy (evaluation), training

Foster the development of ESMs pNetwork on future models, stimulate common developments

Service on ESMs

Foster high-end simulations Prepare multi-model, multi member HR simulations,

prepare for exascale develop coupled benchmarksprepare for exascale, develop coupled benchmarks

Foster application of ESM simulations for climate change impactsimpactsDissemination of global & regional model data, portal for impact

community, enhance interactions with users (incl corporates)

Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap

A grand Challenge : A grand Challenge : towards 1 km scale

global climate model

h //

Access to distributed ESM data networkCMIP5 experiments

http://is.enes.org

IPSL

EC-EARTHEU FP7 : IS-ENES E

CNRM& METAFOR

CMCC

NORESM

Earth System GridAdapted from Taylor,

WGCM, 2010

Requested : 2.3 Pb

Earth Syst m Gr ,

CMIP5: Decadal hindcast of surface air temperaturePredicted versus observed detrended temperature

for different start dates (from 1960 to 2005)for different start dates (from 1960 to 2005)

Year 1 Year 2-5 Year 6-9

• Multi-model mean

+ Ensemble mean of individual models

Colours Different start dates