Inside Out & Upside Down Four IT ‘Truths’ Not to Trust – Because They Don’t Lead to the Future That’s Now

Peter Coffee VP for Strategic Research

pcoffee@salesforce.com @petercoffee

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.

Substantially wrong

Growing speed/falling cost of connection more data collection.

Sometimes wrong

Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).

Increasingly wrong

Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.

Dangerously wrong

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore was a hardware guy.

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore was a hardware guy.

It’s what we do with the transistors that matters now.

“In the second quarter of 2016, Intel will

release the Broadwell-EX chips with 24 cores plus HyperThreading, and support

for four channels of DDR4 memory per CPU.” – itworld.com

In Case It’s News, There’s a Data Thing Going On

“More, Faster, Cheaper” is Not Sufficiently Different

It’s not about the MIPS (millions of instructions/sec.)

It’s about the BORPS (billions of records/second)

Data-intensive systems have many points of failure and must be designed for resilience

Say hello to MapReduce, Hadoop, HPCC, Thor and Roxie

glennlockwood.com

Recognition, Mining and Synthesis

“Intel is helping to change our view of sports with two new technologies: Curie and freeD.

“If you were watching Super Bowl 50, then you've seen freeD in action. When the offense scored a touchdown, CBS showed a 360 shot of the play, letting you see the TD from virtually any angle.

“Instead of a capturing a 2D pixel, the cameras send information back to Intel's data center, which will transform the captured images into a 3D ‘voxel’…” - cnn.com, February 2016

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.

Substantially wrong

Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.

Sometimes wrong

• Reflex arc jerks finger away from hot pipe before brain receives the signal of pain.

Simple Things, Quickly, Need Nearby Decision and Action

• Reflex arc jerks finger away from hot pipe before brain receives the signal of pain. Brain says, “I should put ice on that.”

Mid-Complexity, Isolated Actions: Next Level Up

• Reflex arc jerks finger away from hot pipe before brain receives the signal of pain. Brain says, “I should put ice on that” – then thinks, “That should not be that hot, I’m filing a ticket with maintenance.”

• Immediate local action; rapid analysis and follow-up; collaborative reporting and remediation

• Our networks of things also need stratified processing & response

Aggregation, Analysis, Learning, Proaction: Global Networks

Perhaps we should stop saying “‘Internet’ of Things”

“The Internet” is not “the Web,” which is defined by HTTP…

…but “the Internet” does have a specific meaning: the routing of TCP/IP packets by DNS.

MQTT is a machine-to-machine (M2M)/“Internet of Things” connectivity protocol: extremely lightweight publish/subscribe messaging, useful where small code footprint required and/or bandwidth at a premium.

UDP, DTLS, DDS, Weightless…and many other* options

Your body doesn’t have just one messaging system. Neither will the IoT.

* postscapes.com/internet-of-things-protocols

Mash-ups from Web &

AppExchange

Native Desktop Connectors

Integration Tools

AppExchange Apps

ERP

Any System

Finance

Systems of Record

Experience Design Clouds of Computation, Relationship, and Transaction

Salesforce

Connected Devices and Processes

Cooperation, but Differentiation: Two Classes of Cloud

Clouds of Measurement, Notification and Action

Process Quality Manager (PQM) Usage-based Services

The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

Process Quality Manager (PQM) Usage-based Services

The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

Process Quality Manager (PQM) Usage-based Services

The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

The two key features of Snapdragon 2100 are reduction in size and increase in power efficiency.

• 30% smaller than Snapdragon 400

• Uses 25% less power

• Integrated, low power sensor hub

• Four Cortex-A7 cores at max 1.2 GHz

• Adreno 304 GPU for OpenGL ES 3.0

• Wirelessly tethered

• Bluetooth

• Wi-Fi

• Connected

• 4G/LTE

• 3G

www.androidauthority.com/snapdragon-wear-2100-672774

Progress in Core Technology Continues to Accelerate

This is Acceleration, Not Saturation

“This has to level off” “That’s too conservative” “You’re both clueless”

Every Device Connected & Intelligent

“We built a connected freezer with the Salesforce1 Platform so we can keep in touch with researchers in real time and better anticipate their needs. Now we can better support them to solve their problems.”

New England Biolabs/Xively

http://www.salesforce.com/customers/stories/new-england-biolabs.jsp

It Stops Being “Wearable Tech”: It’s Just What We Wear

“Truck drivers at Rio Tinto's coal mines in Hunter Valley, Australia, for example have been using a device called ‘SmartCap’ which looks like a regular baseball cap but has sensors to detect the alertness.

“It provides an early warning for when a driver is approaching a ‘microsleep,’ designed to reduce fatigue-related accidents.”

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-07/wearable-technology-creeps-into-the-workplace

It Goes Beyond Smart Devices…to a Smart World

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.

Substantially wrong

Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.

Sometimes wrong

Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).

Increasingly wrong

You Can Work Hard Now, or Crunch Harder Later

Jim R. Wilson at pragprog.com

The Whole Idea of a Database Is Up for Grabs

“Blockchain is a technology for a new generation of transactional applications that establishes trust, accountability and transparency while streamlining business processes. We can re-imagine the world's most fundamental business interactions and open the door to invent new styles of digital interactions…to vastly reduce the cost and complexity of cross-enterprise business processes.

“The distributed ledger makes it easier to create cost-efficient business networks where virtually anything of value can be tracked and traded—without requiring a central point of control.”

The Whole Idea of a Database Is Up for Grabs

“Blockchains are the latest example of unexpected fruits of cryptography. Mathematical scrambling is used to boil down an original piece of information into a code, known as a hash. Any attempt to tamper with any part of the blockchain is apparent immediately—because the new hash will not match the old ones.

“In this way a science that keeps information secret (vital for encrypting messages and online shopping and banking) is, paradoxically, also a tool for open dealing.”

- The Economist, October 2015

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.

Substantially wrong

Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.

Sometimes wrong

Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).

Increasingly wrong

Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.

Dangerously wrong

The “Search” feature tells you something’s wrong

Tomorrow’s “app” extends a lexicon of APIs

Any dedicated UI is just a

“serving suggestion”

A Silo in Your Hand…is Still a Silo

Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”

dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”

blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/ dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”

blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/ dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”

blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/ dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

Between 1991 and 2005, over $7 billion was invested by Intel and computer manufacturers in advertising that carried the Intel Inside® logo. Intel turned a chip into a brand and that brand into billions in added sales. In 1991, before the start of the "Intel inside" branding program, Intel's market capitalization was about $10 billion. In 2003: $155 billion. Around 70% of home PC buyers and 85% of business buyers state a preference for Intel, saying they will pay a premium for the security and peace-of-mind offered by the brand.

Consider the implications of “[Your Brand] Inside”

Any “UI” May Soon Seem Quaint

Conversational commerce largely pertains to utilizing chat, messaging, or other natural language interfaces (i.e. voice) to interact with people, brands, or services and bots that heretofore have had no real place in the bidirectional, asynchronous messaging context. The net result is that you and I will be talking to brands and companies over Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, Telegram, Slack, and elsewhere before year’s end.

- Chris Messina

It’s time for conversational commerce

When Curves Cross, “The Right Thing” Changes

From IBM PC in 1981 to HP 6305 (most popular desktop) in 2015 • 4.77 MHz to 3.6 GHz: Compute speed has risen ~20% per year

• 64K to 4 GB: Memory has surged ~40% per year

• 160K to 500 GB: Mass storage tsunami ~50% per year

Desktop systems are burdened with too much state

• File system technology has not addressed new needs

• People can’t find stuff

• People keep redundant and inconsistent copies of stuff

• Governance falls short of rising demands

• People lose stuff

• People share stuff in unknown, unsafe, unauthorized ways

We didn’t build for where we wound up going

• 300 bps to 50 Mbps: Connectivity has grown by ~45% per year

Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.

Substantially wrong

Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.

Sometimes wrong

Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).

Increasingly wrong

Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.

Dangerously wrong

We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

It’s not just that “computers” will keep getting faster

It’s that every object & environment will be more computational

It’s not just that data collection will get faster, cheaper, & more global

It’s that we can push knowledge out to distributed intelligence

It’s not just that databases, as we know them, will get bigger

It’s that we can share truths and ask unanticipated questions

It’s not building “applications” more quickly to run anywhere

It’s giving people a richer experience…everywhere

We Know What We Need To Do Now

“Platform” is a strategy – not a procurement choice

Platform

Competitors Customer

Components Utilities

Value Added: Innovation Differentiation

Friction Reduced: Abstraction Commodification

Thank you

Peter Coffee

VP for Strategic Research

pcoffee@salesforce.com

@petercoffee

in/petercoffee

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