Hindalco Industries Ltd Board Meeting
Transcript of Hindalco Industries Ltd Board Meeting
November 10, 2011
Hindalco Industries LtdInvestor Presentation
Q2 FY12
2
Highlights & Financial Performance
Performance Review & Outlook
Presentation Structure
Projects Update
Highlights and Financial
Performance
3
4
H1 FY12: Highlights
Aluminium
India
India
Copper
smelter
Novelis
Steady performance despite severe cost
pressures
Projects progressing well
Strong operating performance though
production impacted by shutdown
EBIT
5%
EBIT
14%
Momentum continues on the back of
higher EBITDA per ton
Adj.
EBITDA
10%
Standalone Results at a glance…
5
` Cr H1 FY11 H1 FY12 Change (%)
Net Sales 11,038 12,303 11
PBITDA 1682 1,890 12
PBT 1,229 1,407 14
PAT 968 1,147 18
EPS (`) 5.06 5.99 18
` Cr Q2 FY11 Q2 FY12 Change (%)
Net Sales 5,860 6,272 7
PBITDA 780 845 8
PBT 556 604 9
PAT 434 503 16
EPS (`) 2.27 2.63 16
Performance Review & Outlook
6
Key Business Drivers and Impact
Driver
Change ( %)
H2 FY 12 Vs H2 FY 11
Impact
Aluminium LME
Average20
Copper TC/RC >20
Exchange
Rate (`/$)(2)
Indian coal prices 30
7
Al: Business Environment
8
2089 2343 2500 2603 2399
97,097
1,05,110
1,13,1761,16,387
1,09,754
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
Q2 FY11
Q3 FY11
Q4 FY11
Q1 FY12
Q2 FY12
LME$/t `/t
Input prices continued to remain
strong…..
India specific challenges:
Coal cost increase
Regional disturbances affecting
production
Monsoon rains impacting raw material
quality & availability
While LME has started to
soften….
Cost pressures have
continued …
Aluminium Demand: Perceptible
slowdown
9
Global demand holding steady so far …
Daily World Al. Consumption (kt)
109 132128
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
r-09
Ma
y-0
9
Ju
l-09
Se
p-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Mar-
10
Ma
y-1
0
Jul-10
Se
p-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
r-11
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
l-11
Se
p-1
1
But projections suggest slowdown
in world consumption growth
2011
(Est.)
9.1%
2012
(Jul.
proj.)
8.6%
2012
(Oct.
proj.)
6.5%
Source: Industry estimates
Growth moderation in India
Stagnant demand in H1 FY 12
Demand uncertainty
across several segments,
Especially rate sensitive
Al: Operational Performance
10
688 667
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
Alumina (kt)264
284
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
Aluminium (kt)
69.93
Alumina production affected by
bauxite availability & quality …
… Metal production up 8%
But we sold more specials
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
51% 38%
49% 62% Specials
Standard
Composition of Hydrate / Alumina sales
Maximize domestic sale of metal
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
87% 89%
ExportDomestic
Aluminium Business: Financial Performance
11
Q2 FY11 Q2 FY12 Change
(%)
Net Sales &
Operating Revenue1,911 2,213 16
EBIT 424 429 1
(` cr)
H1 FY11 H1 FY12 Change
(%)
Net Sales &
Operating Revenue3,778 4,306 14
EBIT 976 1,028 5
(` cr)
LME outlook remains clouded
12
Continued
excess supply
conditions
• World production expected to exceed demand
by 0.8 mn tones in 2011, 1.2 mn tones in 2012
Macro risks
accentuated
• Recurring episodes of risk aversion
• Vulnerability of Europe and US to negative
events
Cost pressures
• Upward shift in cost curve likely to provide a
floor to LME
• 90th percentile of cost curve at $2,500; may lead
to closures if LME remains ~2,200 for long
Large
overhang of
inventory
• Global inventory ~86 days of consumption
• However, financing deals likely to survive for
now as interest rates remain low
Novelis H1 Performance
13
1,483 1,489
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
Shipments nearly flat …(kt)
Adj. EBITDA up 10%
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
H1 FY11H1 FY12
554
607($ mn)
Shipments Down 2% to 720 Kilotonnes
Net Sales Up 14% to $2.9 Billion
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Up 3% to $301 Million
Free Cash Flow Before CapEx of $237 Million
Liquidity of $993 Million
Net Income of $120 Million
Three large mill expansions (Brazil 220 kt, Korea 350 kt and North
America 200 kt) on track and budget
Novelis Update (Q2 FY12)
14
Strong Second Quarter Results
15
(Millions)
Novelis: Adjusted EBITDA Trend
Driving Consistent & Predictable Results
291 238
280306 301
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12
TTM EBITDAQuarterly EBITDA
Qu
art
erl
yT
TM
Copper: Operational Performance
Impact of lower production was offset
by …
170
148
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
Cathode Production (kt)
Copper production down 13%
16
Stronger Tc/Rc
Higher by-product credits
Copper Production lower due to
planned shutdown
Focused Marketing approach
Delivered robust performance despite internal challenges
Copper Business: Financial Performance
17
Q2 FY11 Q2 FY12 Change
(%)
Net Sales &
Operating Revenue3,951 4,062 3
EBIT 129 148 15
(` cr)
H1 FY11 H1 FY12 Change
(%)
Net Sales &
Operating Revenue7,265 8,002 10
EBIT 253 293 16
(` cr)
ABML Update
18
Nifty Sulfide Production declined 23%
due to sharp fall in ore grade
29,491
22,562
2.83
2.32
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
Ore Grade (%)
44.6
14.9
H1 FY11 H1 FY12
EBIT - impacted by lower
production, cost pressures and
AUD strength
AUD (Mn)
Mt Gordon operations re-started in June, ramp-up in progress
Cu in conc. (Tones)
Copper: Consumption moderating but Tc/Rc
likely to be under pressure
19
1.2
6.2
20
14.114.1
29.528.2
21.119.2
15.912.312.3
9.0
Far East Spot TCRC (c/lb)
LME under pressure due to macro
risks and growth concerns
World refined copper consumption
expected to grow 4.4% in 2011 (vs.
11.3% last year)
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000 LME Cu ($/t)
7,347
Spot TCRCs moving back to levels
prior to earthquake in Japan – on
account of mine strikes
Weak trend in spot TCRC may have
a bearing on contract negotiations
for 2012
Our three strategic pillars enabling us face
this challenging environment
20
Cost
Leadership
Balanced
PortfolioVAP Focus
Our Position on
cost curve getting
affected by India-
specific cost
rigidities
Expected to help in a
downturn
Novelis and India-
Copper far less
affected than
upstream businesses
Slowdown impacting
demand in certain
segments (India
FRP, copper rods)
Greenfield projects to
help re-affirm cost
leadership
We remain committed
to our medium-term
VAP targets
Conversion businesses
on even stronger
footing now than in
2008/09
Projects Update
21
Greenfield Projects Update
Project ProgressExpected
completion
Mahan Aluminium, MP
•Gearing for commissioning• 16,500 people at site •Forest clearance for coal block awaited• Applied for tapering linkage for coal
Early 2012
Utkal Alumina, Orissa
• 10,000 people at site• Boiler #1 hydrostatic test completed
Second half 2012
Aditya Aluminium, Orissa
•Construction progressing• ~7,000 people working on project• Financial closure for debt portion being pursued
Early 2013
Aditya Refinery, Orissa
• Majority land acquired• Construction power line energized
2014
Jharkhand Aluminium
• Land acquisition started• 55 MCM water allocated by State Govt
2015
22
Activity at Sites: Mahan smelter
Pot room “A” inside view Pot room “B” inside view
Central PassageAlumina Silos
23
Activity at Sites: Mahan CPP
24
Unit # 1 and 2 CHP TP-04
DM PlantCooling Tower
Activity at Sites: Utkal
Precipitation area STG1: EOT Crane erection
25
Predisilication Area Digestion area
Project Scope
Hirakud Smelter Expansion II213 ktpa to 360 ktpa, 500 MW additional power capacity
Belgaum special alumina 189 ktpa to 301 ktpa with coal-based co-gen
Brownfield Projects Update
Project Progress Expected completion
Hirakud Smelter Expansion I
• Strong progress• ~90% procurement completed• Civil work in advanced stage
Early 2012
Hirakud FRP• ~2,800 people at site• Placement of equipments in progress Early 2012
26
Brownfield projects on the drawing board
Activity at Sites: Hirakud FRP
Cold Mill Erection Cold Mill Coil Inspection System
Slitter FoundationHot Mill Table Roll Foundation
27
Thank you
28
29
Certain statements in this report may be “forward looking statements”
within the meaning of applicable securities laws and regulations. Actual
results could differ materially from those expressed or implied.
Important factors that could make a difference to the company’s
operations include global and Indian demand supply
conditions, finished goods prices, feed stock availability and
prices, cyclical demand and pricing in the company’s principal
markets, changes in Government regulations, tax regimes, economic
developments within India and the countries within which the company
conducts business and other factors such as litigation and labour
negotiations. The company assume no responsibility to publicly
amend, modify or revise any forward looking statement, on the basis of
any subsequent development, information or events, or otherwise.
Forward Looking & Cautionary Statement
Aluminium Production
In Tonnes Q2FY11 Q2FY12 Variance
Alumina 347,071 332,383 -4%
Metal 123,325 143,315 8%
FRP 54,042 52,439 -3%
Extrusions 9,637 7,154 -26%
Wire Rods 24,158 24,442 1%
Copper Production
Production lower due to bi-annual shutdown
Production Units Q2 FY11 Q2 FY12 variance
Copper Cathodes MT 94,104 74,588 (21%)
CC Rods : Own MT 43,274 33,972 (21%)