Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials...

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Frans Lindelöw Group Executive Management Berlin, 13 June 2008 Goldman Sachs Financials Conference “Sustaining profitability despite challenging funding conditions”

Transcript of Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials...

Page 1: Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials Conference “Sustaining profitability despite. ... Deposits and borrowings from the public

Frans LindelöwGroup Executive ManagementBerlin, 13 June 2008

Goldman Sachs Financials Conference

“Sustaining profitability despitechallenging funding conditions”

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate and (iii) change in interest rate level. This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

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Key effects from the credit crunch

The price on capital has increased in all markets

Increased focus on stable and diversified funding sources

Improved risk-adjusted lending margins

More risk avert investors and customers

More on-balance sheet lending – less off-balance sheet exposure

A gradual shift in credit cycle

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Price on capital has increased

Risk premium on European corporate bonds*

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Jan Feb Mar Mar Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Spreads between interbank rates and treasuries continues to be significantly higher level than pre-crises-level

Corporate credit spreads coming down from extreme levels – will not reach spring 2007-level

Increased risk recognition in pricing of credits

Significant higher risk awareness among investors

Spread between Euro Libor 3m and Euro T-bill 3m

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May

* iTraxx Europe index comprises 125 European entities

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More on balance sheet lending – less off-balance sheet exposure

Traditional banking back in fashion – more on balance sheet lending

Segments of off-balance sheet banking have disappeared – e.g. SIV-financing

‘Originate-to-distribute-model’ under heavy fire – capital requirements to increase on all type of securitization

Increased capital requirements – strong balance sheets

Well diversified portfolios a strength

Increased focus on credit quality – ‘Originate-to-distribute-model’did not encourage firm credit standards

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Increased focus on stable and diversified funding sources – Nordea benefiting from well recognized name

40

34

55

254

28

Loans and receivables to thepublic

Loans and receivables tocredit institutions

Shares and Derivatives

Interest-bearing securities

Other

32187

40

41

101

141

31

Deposits and borrow ingsfrom the publicDebt securities in issue

Deposits by credit institutions

Derivatives

Liabilities to policyholders

Subordinated liabilities

Equity

Other

Matchedfunding

Total assets, EURbn Total liabilities and equity, EURbn

Loans to the public financed by deposits from the public and mainly covered bondsSatisfactory loans to deposit ratio end March – adjusting for mortgage portfolioEquity EUR 17.8bn end March

*

*Mainly covered bonds

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Deposits from the public

53%

Danish covered bonds

13%

Swedish covered bonds

9%

EMTN2%

MTN2% CD

11%CP5%

Deposits by credit inst.

(net)2%

Subordinated3%

Multiple funding sources in NordeaStrong and well diversified funding base including a stable household deposit base

Loans to deposit 129%*

Largely normal funding operationsNordea benefiting from a well recognisedname and high rating (Aa1/AA-/AA-/AA)

Short-term funding and covered bond markets in the Nordic countries continues to be fully operational

Issuance of a new Euro covered bond in beginning of April at mid swap +11bps, only somewhat higher than previous issue in November

Mid May Nordea issued a 2 year EUR 2.5bn bond at Libor +43bps

No maturing subordinated debt during 2008*Including covered bonds

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Improved lending margins in Q1 reflecting shift in risk

80,4 83,5 84,1 88,092,1 94,7 97,5

101,9106,3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/080,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

Volume Margins

EURbn %Corporate lending

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More risk avert customers…

Nordea Household savings net sales, by product group 4 quarters rolling, EURbn

• Strong increase in net sales of savings product since 2005

• In 2007 and 2008 sales was mainly seen on savings accounts - driven by increased yields, risk awareness and successful savings campaigns

• Market turmoil has lead to outflows from equity funds within Asset management

-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,0

Q1/05

Q2/05

Q3/05

Q4/05

Q1/06

Q2/06

Q3/06

Q4/06

Q1/07

Q2/07

Q3/07

Q4/07

Q1/08

Funds Equities and Bonds Savings AccountsStructured Products Life & Pensions All Products

Best offer on saving accounts

SE DK FI NO

Q1/06 1.75% 2.00% 2.80% 2.35%

Jun 08 5.00 5.00% 5.00% 6,35%

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…but outflow in managed assets the last year

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

European Fund Dist. Private Banking Retail fundsInstitutional clients Life & Pensions Total net inflow

Net inflow EUR m

• Strong sales in institutional client activities in Q1 2008

• Retail funds affected by financial market volatility since summer 2007 together with substitution to account products with attractive terms

• European Fund Distribution outflow concentrated to two large value funds

• Historic strong net inflow development in Private Banking but the equity market downturn affected in Q1 2008

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Higher interest rates – also supporting flows from current account to savings accounts…

41 41 44 45 45 47 49 52

21 21 21 20 21 21 20 19

32 33 34 35 37 39 41 43

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108

EURbn

Corporate deposits Transaction accounts Savings accounts

Total deposits Nordic Banking

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…leads to slightly lower average margins on household deposits

51,4 53,3 54,2 54,7 55,257,9 59,8 61,2 62,1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

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60

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Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/080,5

0,7

0,9

1,1

1,3

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1,7

1,9

2,1

2,3

2,5

EURbn%

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Net loan losses of EUR 21m was recorded in the first quarter, following 15 consecutive positive quarters

New provisions remained at an unchanged level while the amount of recoveries has decreased

Credit quality in the well diversified lending portfolio remain strong – no specific areas of concern

A gradual shift in the credit cycle

Loan losses, EURm

126101 98

141

-140 -129 -111

-13 -28 -6

151

-120-157

21

-13

Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08Gross loan losses ReversalsNet loan losses

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Well diversified lending portfolioShare of total lending, EUR 254bn

Household43%

Corporate55%

Public sector

2%

Well-diversified lending mix measured by customer segments and industry

Stable industry split over time

Stronger growth in corporate lending than household lending the last six months

Lending to corporates, EUR 139bn

28%

4%5%

5%4%10%15%

11%8%

10%

Real estate

Contstruction

Agriculture & Fishing

Transport &CommunicationShipping

Trade & Service

Manufacturing

Financial operations

Renting, Consulting andother services Other

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Robust business model and outstanding platform to leverage from

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Nordea – with an outstanding position to leverage from

Corp. lending % # Market rank

HH lending % % Share of Group income (size of bubbles)

Strong distribution powerMore than 1,300 branches

A unique customer baseApprox. 10 million personal customers700,000 corporate customers

Financial strengthEUR 14.5bn in Tier 1 capital

Economies of scaleCost base/RWA 2.0% (average among Nordic peers 2.3%)

Finland21%# 1

Norway11%# 2

Denmark22%# 2

Sweden22%# 2-3

Global, European,

Other*)19%

New European

Mark

ets

5%

*) Includes mainly International Private Banking and Funds, Shipping and Oil Services, Financial Institutions Divisions and other operations and Group Functions

Strong funding position

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6.8

7.7 7.98.3 8.2

7.0 7.26.8

7.27.1

0

1

2

3

4

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6

7

8

9

Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

Tier 1 Basel I Tier 1 Basel II excl. transition rules Tier 1 Basel II

Strong capital position%

Tier 1 ratio excl. transition rules 8.2%

Tier 1 ratio 7.2% incl. transition rules (7.0% in Q4)

Changed transition rules leads to an increased Tier I ratio

Approval of IRB approach for Retail portfolio is expected late 2008

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Clear growth strategy towards Great Nordea

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A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives

Household strategy

• Expanded distribution capacity in Poland

• Russia – broaden focus to include all segments

• Selective growth in the Baltic countries

Based on strong competencies

• Free up time for sales• Unify customer processes• Employer branding and recruitment, talent management and leadership competencies

• Added advisory capacity

• Capture internal pool of potential customers

• New Corporate Merchant Banking concept

• Cash equity and corporate finance

• Growth in sale of value-added capital markets products

• Migration to premium segments

• Attract new customers to premium segments

• Focus on Sweden

Private banking Corporate strategy

• Reinforced #1 position in shipping

• Reinforced strong international position in Private Banking and Fund Distribution

Selective growth strategy

Existing Nordic customers and new customersSelected global and European business lines

New European Markets

Next level of efficiency to support sustainable growth

• Unify product delivery processes• Next phase of improvements cross units

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Significant potential in migrating household customers to higher segments

* Nordea services approx 2 million customers outside customer programmes** Excl children under 18 years*** Changed customer definitions from Q108 – mainly affecting Private Banking segment

Gold and Private banking customers are engines for revenue growth

A Gold customer generates 7 times higher income than a Bronze customer and a Private banking customer 4 times a Gold

Approx. 1 million potential Gold customers in the customer base – strong source for further growth

2.4

1.2

3.7

Income (Index)

Customers * (millions)

Number of customers

2.5x3x

4x

1200

300

100 40

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Private Banking Gold** Silver Bronze 0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Income per customer Q1 2008 (Silver customer = 100)***

0.08

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Strengthening the corporate offering

Service model combining Nordea’s strong product capabilities with local presence

The customer team concept – Corporate Merchant Banking and Large Corporate

Individual solutions involving relationship managers and specialists from all relevant Nordea units

The relationship manager – medium and small corporate segments

One single point of contact for customers

Key initiatives:Corporate Merchant Banking

Corporate Finance and Cash Equity

Structured market products

Launching new concept to segment small

Total income corporate customers, EURm

759

897

Q1/07 Q1/08

18%

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New European Markets total income, EURm

40

6368

94

83

Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08*

Strong business development in all segments within New European Markets

* Orgresbank consolidated from Q2 2007

An increasingly important component in the long-term growth strategy

Selective growth strategy on track11 new branches opened in Poland in Q1 2008Continued prudent credit policies in New European Markets enable Nordea to grow with stable credit quality

Income up 135% - 40% in Poland and the Baltic countries

Close to 5% of Group income

Total lending up 71% in Poland and the Baltic countriesTotal number of customers increased with 30%

Number of gold customers up 66%

Cost/Income ratio continues to improve (from 60% to 53%) despite investments in branch network

C/I in line with Nordic Banking

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A clear strategy for growth

Existingbusiness

Nordicgrow th

initiatives

NewEuropeanMarkets

Global andEuropean

nichebusinesses

Volume andsalary

increases +inflation

Investmentsin New

EuropeanMarkets

Investmentsin Nordicgrow th

initiatives

Improvedefficiency

Profitgrow th

Revenue growth Cost growth Risk-adjusted profit

7-10% 4-8% >10%

TargetCAGR 7 years horizon

Bringing Nordea from Good to Great

2007- 2008

Page 24: Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials Conference “Sustaining profitability despite. ... Deposits and borrowings from the public

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Key messages

Limited impact from market turmoil

Well diversified funding sources

Increased funding costs leads to a re-pricing of the lending book and is not hurting lending margins

Changed customer behavior – effecting the revenue structure but Nordea is maintaining a strong overall position on the savings market

Growth strategy on track – selective organic growth in focus

Page 25: Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials Conference “Sustaining profitability despite. ... Deposits and borrowings from the public

Frans LindelöwGroup Executive ManagementBerlin, 13 June 2008

Goldman Sachs Financials Conference

“Sustaining profitability despitechallenging funding conditions”