Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials...
Transcript of Goldman Sachs Financials Conference - Nordea · 2008. 6. 13. · Goldman Sachs Financials...
Frans LindelöwGroup Executive ManagementBerlin, 13 June 2008
Goldman Sachs Financials Conference
“Sustaining profitability despitechallenging funding conditions”
2
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate and (iii) change in interest rate level. This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.
3
Key effects from the credit crunch
The price on capital has increased in all markets
Increased focus on stable and diversified funding sources
Improved risk-adjusted lending margins
More risk avert investors and customers
More on-balance sheet lending – less off-balance sheet exposure
A gradual shift in credit cycle
4
Price on capital has increased
Risk premium on European corporate bonds*
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan Feb Mar Mar Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Spreads between interbank rates and treasuries continues to be significantly higher level than pre-crises-level
Corporate credit spreads coming down from extreme levels – will not reach spring 2007-level
Increased risk recognition in pricing of credits
Significant higher risk awareness among investors
Spread between Euro Libor 3m and Euro T-bill 3m
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May
* iTraxx Europe index comprises 125 European entities
5
More on balance sheet lending – less off-balance sheet exposure
Traditional banking back in fashion – more on balance sheet lending
Segments of off-balance sheet banking have disappeared – e.g. SIV-financing
‘Originate-to-distribute-model’ under heavy fire – capital requirements to increase on all type of securitization
Increased capital requirements – strong balance sheets
Well diversified portfolios a strength
Increased focus on credit quality – ‘Originate-to-distribute-model’did not encourage firm credit standards
6
Increased focus on stable and diversified funding sources – Nordea benefiting from well recognized name
40
34
55
254
28
Loans and receivables to thepublic
Loans and receivables tocredit institutions
Shares and Derivatives
Interest-bearing securities
Other
32187
40
41
101
141
31
Deposits and borrow ingsfrom the publicDebt securities in issue
Deposits by credit institutions
Derivatives
Liabilities to policyholders
Subordinated liabilities
Equity
Other
Matchedfunding
Total assets, EURbn Total liabilities and equity, EURbn
Loans to the public financed by deposits from the public and mainly covered bondsSatisfactory loans to deposit ratio end March – adjusting for mortgage portfolioEquity EUR 17.8bn end March
*
*Mainly covered bonds
7
Deposits from the public
53%
Danish covered bonds
13%
Swedish covered bonds
9%
EMTN2%
MTN2% CD
11%CP5%
Deposits by credit inst.
(net)2%
Subordinated3%
Multiple funding sources in NordeaStrong and well diversified funding base including a stable household deposit base
Loans to deposit 129%*
Largely normal funding operationsNordea benefiting from a well recognisedname and high rating (Aa1/AA-/AA-/AA)
Short-term funding and covered bond markets in the Nordic countries continues to be fully operational
Issuance of a new Euro covered bond in beginning of April at mid swap +11bps, only somewhat higher than previous issue in November
Mid May Nordea issued a 2 year EUR 2.5bn bond at Libor +43bps
No maturing subordinated debt during 2008*Including covered bonds
8
Improved lending margins in Q1 reflecting shift in risk
80,4 83,5 84,1 88,092,1 94,7 97,5
101,9106,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/080,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
Volume Margins
EURbn %Corporate lending
9
More risk avert customers…
Nordea Household savings net sales, by product group 4 quarters rolling, EURbn
• Strong increase in net sales of savings product since 2005
• In 2007 and 2008 sales was mainly seen on savings accounts - driven by increased yields, risk awareness and successful savings campaigns
• Market turmoil has lead to outflows from equity funds within Asset management
-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,0
Q1/05
Q2/05
Q3/05
Q4/05
Q1/06
Q2/06
Q3/06
Q4/06
Q1/07
Q2/07
Q3/07
Q4/07
Q1/08
Funds Equities and Bonds Savings AccountsStructured Products Life & Pensions All Products
Best offer on saving accounts
SE DK FI NO
Q1/06 1.75% 2.00% 2.80% 2.35%
Jun 08 5.00 5.00% 5.00% 6,35%
10
…but outflow in managed assets the last year
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08
European Fund Dist. Private Banking Retail fundsInstitutional clients Life & Pensions Total net inflow
Net inflow EUR m
• Strong sales in institutional client activities in Q1 2008
• Retail funds affected by financial market volatility since summer 2007 together with substitution to account products with attractive terms
• European Fund Distribution outflow concentrated to two large value funds
• Historic strong net inflow development in Private Banking but the equity market downturn affected in Q1 2008
11
Higher interest rates – also supporting flows from current account to savings accounts…
41 41 44 45 45 47 49 52
21 21 21 20 21 21 20 19
32 33 34 35 37 39 41 43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108
EURbn
Corporate deposits Transaction accounts Savings accounts
Total deposits Nordic Banking
12
…leads to slightly lower average margins on household deposits
51,4 53,3 54,2 54,7 55,257,9 59,8 61,2 62,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/080,5
0,7
0,9
1,1
1,3
1,5
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
EURbn%
13
Net loan losses of EUR 21m was recorded in the first quarter, following 15 consecutive positive quarters
New provisions remained at an unchanged level while the amount of recoveries has decreased
Credit quality in the well diversified lending portfolio remain strong – no specific areas of concern
A gradual shift in the credit cycle
Loan losses, EURm
126101 98
141
-140 -129 -111
-13 -28 -6
151
-120-157
21
-13
Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08Gross loan losses ReversalsNet loan losses
14
Well diversified lending portfolioShare of total lending, EUR 254bn
Household43%
Corporate55%
Public sector
2%
Well-diversified lending mix measured by customer segments and industry
Stable industry split over time
Stronger growth in corporate lending than household lending the last six months
Lending to corporates, EUR 139bn
28%
4%5%
5%4%10%15%
11%8%
10%
Real estate
Contstruction
Agriculture & Fishing
Transport &CommunicationShipping
Trade & Service
Manufacturing
Financial operations
Renting, Consulting andother services Other
15
Robust business model and outstanding platform to leverage from
16
Nordea – with an outstanding position to leverage from
Corp. lending % # Market rank
HH lending % % Share of Group income (size of bubbles)
Strong distribution powerMore than 1,300 branches
A unique customer baseApprox. 10 million personal customers700,000 corporate customers
Financial strengthEUR 14.5bn in Tier 1 capital
Economies of scaleCost base/RWA 2.0% (average among Nordic peers 2.3%)
Finland21%# 1
Norway11%# 2
Denmark22%# 2
Sweden22%# 2-3
Global, European,
Other*)19%
New European
Mark
ets
5%
*) Includes mainly International Private Banking and Funds, Shipping and Oil Services, Financial Institutions Divisions and other operations and Group Functions
Strong funding position
17
6.8
7.7 7.98.3 8.2
7.0 7.26.8
7.27.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08
Tier 1 Basel I Tier 1 Basel II excl. transition rules Tier 1 Basel II
Strong capital position%
Tier 1 ratio excl. transition rules 8.2%
Tier 1 ratio 7.2% incl. transition rules (7.0% in Q4)
Changed transition rules leads to an increased Tier I ratio
Approval of IRB approach for Retail portfolio is expected late 2008
18
Clear growth strategy towards Great Nordea
19
A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives
Household strategy
• Expanded distribution capacity in Poland
• Russia – broaden focus to include all segments
• Selective growth in the Baltic countries
Based on strong competencies
• Free up time for sales• Unify customer processes• Employer branding and recruitment, talent management and leadership competencies
• Added advisory capacity
• Capture internal pool of potential customers
• New Corporate Merchant Banking concept
• Cash equity and corporate finance
• Growth in sale of value-added capital markets products
• Migration to premium segments
• Attract new customers to premium segments
• Focus on Sweden
Private banking Corporate strategy
• Reinforced #1 position in shipping
• Reinforced strong international position in Private Banking and Fund Distribution
Selective growth strategy
Existing Nordic customers and new customersSelected global and European business lines
New European Markets
Next level of efficiency to support sustainable growth
• Unify product delivery processes• Next phase of improvements cross units
20
Significant potential in migrating household customers to higher segments
* Nordea services approx 2 million customers outside customer programmes** Excl children under 18 years*** Changed customer definitions from Q108 – mainly affecting Private Banking segment
Gold and Private banking customers are engines for revenue growth
A Gold customer generates 7 times higher income than a Bronze customer and a Private banking customer 4 times a Gold
Approx. 1 million potential Gold customers in the customer base – strong source for further growth
2.4
1.2
3.7
Income (Index)
Customers * (millions)
Number of customers
2.5x3x
4x
1200
300
100 40
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Private Banking Gold** Silver Bronze 0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Income per customer Q1 2008 (Silver customer = 100)***
0.08
21
Strengthening the corporate offering
Service model combining Nordea’s strong product capabilities with local presence
The customer team concept – Corporate Merchant Banking and Large Corporate
Individual solutions involving relationship managers and specialists from all relevant Nordea units
The relationship manager – medium and small corporate segments
One single point of contact for customers
Key initiatives:Corporate Merchant Banking
Corporate Finance and Cash Equity
Structured market products
Launching new concept to segment small
Total income corporate customers, EURm
759
897
Q1/07 Q1/08
18%
22
New European Markets total income, EURm
40
6368
94
83
Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08*
Strong business development in all segments within New European Markets
* Orgresbank consolidated from Q2 2007
An increasingly important component in the long-term growth strategy
Selective growth strategy on track11 new branches opened in Poland in Q1 2008Continued prudent credit policies in New European Markets enable Nordea to grow with stable credit quality
Income up 135% - 40% in Poland and the Baltic countries
Close to 5% of Group income
Total lending up 71% in Poland and the Baltic countriesTotal number of customers increased with 30%
Number of gold customers up 66%
Cost/Income ratio continues to improve (from 60% to 53%) despite investments in branch network
C/I in line with Nordic Banking
23
A clear strategy for growth
Existingbusiness
Nordicgrow th
initiatives
NewEuropeanMarkets
Global andEuropean
nichebusinesses
Volume andsalary
increases +inflation
Investmentsin New
EuropeanMarkets
Investmentsin Nordicgrow th
initiatives
Improvedefficiency
Profitgrow th
Revenue growth Cost growth Risk-adjusted profit
7-10% 4-8% >10%
TargetCAGR 7 years horizon
Bringing Nordea from Good to Great
2007- 2008
24
Key messages
Limited impact from market turmoil
Well diversified funding sources
Increased funding costs leads to a re-pricing of the lending book and is not hurting lending margins
Changed customer behavior – effecting the revenue structure but Nordea is maintaining a strong overall position on the savings market
Growth strategy on track – selective organic growth in focus
Frans LindelöwGroup Executive ManagementBerlin, 13 June 2008
Goldman Sachs Financials Conference
“Sustaining profitability despitechallenging funding conditions”