Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and BeyondG: ConclusionsBrian KellyIndependent researcher/consultant at

UK Web Focus Ltd.Tony HirstSenior lecturer at The Open UniversityContact DetailsBrian Kelly Tony HirstEmail: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.comTwitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemediaBlog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/Slides and further information available at

http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/

UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

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G: Conclusions

Contents • Recap:

Thinking differently Delphi process Risk and opportunities framework Action brief Business case

• Other sources of information• Your feedback

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G: Conclusions

Thinking DifferentlySome tools and techniques

• “What did you notice for the first time?”• Trend analyses (pros and cons)• How did we get here?• The history of the world backwards• “Did you try the library?”• Listening to experts• Asking the audience

Slides available which describe these tools

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Delphi Process

Open methodology.Used by:

• NMC Horizon reports

• Cetis workshops

• …

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Two page summary

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G: Conclusions

Risk and Opportunities FrameworkRemember:

• There are risks and opportunities• There are risks in doing nothing (missed

opportunities)• There are risks in continuing to use existing

technologies (remember mainframe computers, dBase, …)

Need to explicitly address risksApproaches described in “Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web”:

• Summarise risks• Summary risks of not adopting technology• Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting)

risks• Document biases and prejudices• Provide evidence base

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Action BriefAction brief planning template:

Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______

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As described on the Hyperlinked Library MOOC:Ideas in the form of action briefs can create a starting point for a new service or plan.Imagine, for example, that you have been placed in charge of a new initiative. You must create a planning document for the team or administrators that will join you on the project. Think of this document as a roadmap for future meetings/actions to get the technology or service implemented.  

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Making the CaseRemember need:

• To convince managers of reasons for providing resources to investigate new developments

• To demonstrate that you have appreciated risks and formulated risk mitigation plans

• To be aware of competing areas which are seeking resources

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LimitationsWhat are the limitations of the approach?

• User resistance (e.g. Google Glass)

• Trends being ‘spun’• Vested interests• Perpetuating existing

systems• Over-emphasis on

technical meritsWhat else?

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G: Conclusions

Warning From The Past

Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web

In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation

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G: Conclusions

The Serenity Prayer

• The Serenity Prayer

Serenity Prayer

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G: Conclusions

Do it For Yourself (1)Do it for yourself!

• Slides for full-day workshop available with Creative Commons licence

• Slides also on Slideshare

Workshops at ILI 2013 & 2015 conferences:• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/

Time Title

10.00 A: Introduction

10.15 B1: Exploring Emerging Technologies & Technology-related Areas

10.30 B2: What Is The Library?

C: Future Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques

11.20 Coffee

11.40 D: Using the NMC Delphi Methodology

12.30 Lunch

14.00 E: Scenario Planning

14:30 F1: Making the Case

15.30 Coffee

16.00 F2: Report back

16.45 G: Review and Conclusions

17.00 Finish

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G: Conclusions

Do it For Yourself (2)Do it for yourself!

• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available under a Creative Commons licence

Half-day workshops at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences:• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-

workshop/• http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-

workshop/Also abbreviated version for use in plenary talks:

• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/jibs-2015/

As described

Institutional planning

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Additional ResourcesReports:

• Jisc horizon scanning reports

• IFLA Trend Reports (for members)

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G: Conclusions

MOOC for Futurists

Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends!

https://learn.canvas.net/courses/292

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G: Conclusions

The Association of Professional Futurists

See http://apf.org/

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G: Conclusions

Questions?