Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” Eraitfind.or.kr/smartkorea/2008/T3_2.pdf ·...
Transcript of Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” Eraitfind.or.kr/smartkorea/2008/T3_2.pdf ·...
© 2008 IDC
Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” EraOctober 30, 2008In-Hyung BaikAssociate General Manager
© 2008 IDC
AgendaAgenda
2
§ Post-disruption
§ Building an alternative IT spending scenarioü Worldwide IT Market outlookü Korea IT Market outlook
© 2008 IDC
Dis-rup-tionDis-rup-tion
3
a situation in which something is prevented from continuing in its normal way because of problems and difficulties
Disruptive Routes to Market
Disruptive Customers
Disruptive Offerings
Three Dimensions of Disruption
ü
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Line-of-Business ExecutivesLine-of-Business Executives
What they want from their CIO/Senior IT Management
3. Understand our business better
4. Speed up (business) project delivery
2. Make IT more dependable and secure
1. Deliver more high-business value services
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What’s New …What’s New …
Next-Gen SIs(SaaS-based)
Business Services
Innovation Communities
Mobile Internet
(Online)
Appliances
Everything-as-a-Service(Apps, Information, Infrastructure)
Dynamic IT/SOA
SMB Long Tail
BRIC… and Beyond
Rising LOBInfluence
Consumer MarketInfluence Mobile Internet
(Online)
Appliances
Everything-as-a-Service(Apps, Information, Infrastructure)
InnovationCommunities
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Everything-as-a-ServiceEverything-as-a-Service
• Software
• Services
• Hardware
• Software
• Services
• Hardware
OfferingDelivery
Model
“as”
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Market Makers (& Ecosystems) Jump Feet First Into “Everything-as-a-Service”
Market Makers (& Ecosystems) Jump Feet First Into “Everything-as-a-Service”
• Market makers – notably IBM and Microsoft – will move strongly into Software-as-a-Service
§ Cisco and Google also
• Other Segments Accelerate Online Shift
§ (Web 2.0) Data Center-as-a-Service
§ Storage-as-a-Service
§ BI-as-a-Service
• Ecosystems shift online: new tools, new players
§ Online solution configurators are critical
§ Next-generation “-aaS” SIs
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“Software as a Service”“Software as a Service”
§ SaaS Tipping Point in '07
üIBM will create an online marketplace on WebSphere
üSAP, Microsoft will accelerate SaaS strategies
üLots of SaaS startups
§ LOBs “get it”…
Q: Support concept of purchasing software as a business/hosted service?
CIO
No
Yes
LOB
No Yes
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No/Low-Skill Appliances for On-PremiseNo/Low-Skill Appliances for On-Premise
• Next-generation appliances(“appPods”)
• One (or two) server market-makerswill introduce this model in a big way in ’08
§ And … the leading SaaS disrupters will participate!
§ Internet-connected§ Pre-integrated, downloadable software
appliances § No/low on-site skills needed
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The (Mobile) Last MileThe (Mobile) Last Mile
• A Flood of “Web Gadgets”
•Open Mobile Internet
§ Many major mobile network operator networks will open upin ’08/’09
§ Intel is placing big bets in ’08, ’09
§ 1–2 palms wide, wireless Web-connected, consumer-priced, good at one or two things
© 2008 IDC
Convergence 1.0 not same as Convergence 2.0
§ Convergence 1.0 is on mobile device level
– Mobile device appropriates attributes of other consumer electronic devices
– Networks remain distinct, easy to control
§ Convergence 2.0 is on the network level
– All consumer electronic devices may directly connect to the network
– Common IP protocol makes it difficult for operator to exercise control
§ Convergence impact on operator control unclear
– Dual-mode devices may erode operator control
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Convergence 1.0 & 2.0Convergence 1.0 & 2.0
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Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?
Telecom
Internet
Media
§ Telecom, broadcasting media, and the Internet — all converging and competing in the same content delivery space
§ Result is collision of worldviews, business models (e.g., ad-based v. subscription-based)
§ Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space
§ Seek to lead, and shape necessary eco-system
§ Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction” force players to experiment with new business models
§Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors — all jostling for dominance
§ User experience emerges as new battleground
© 2008 IDC
The New “Innovation Infrastructure”The New “Innovation Infrastructure”
•“Collaboration”(connect the brains)
§ Enterprise social networking
§ 14% have deployed, 27% additional plan in ‘08
• “+ Information”(generate & analyze the information)
§ 10X growth in 5 years
§ Will flip “enterprise information” to primarily externally-sourced
•“= ‘Eureka 2.0’”
§ IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Google
§ HP, EMC, Cisco, Adobe, Symantec, et al.
© 2008 IDC
Essential Guidance
Business
Relevance& Value
Adopt
Quickly
Access to
Information
Affordable& Open
Innovative
IdeasSupport New
Innovation Models
Simple to Adopt
& Affordable
Solutions-
packaged
Mobile/
Accessible
New Information& InnovationInfrastructure
© 2008 IDC
New Design Pointsfor the “Post-Disruption” MarketplaceNew Design Pointsfor the “Post-Disruption” Marketplace
Post-DisruptionPre-Disruption
Small/Medium, Consumers
Emerging Economies
IT “Embedded” in Business Service
Business-Value-Oriented Partners
Huge Partner Communities
IT Vendor as the OEM
Install-Oriented Partners
Moderate-sized Partner Programs•PartnerRelationships
Online & On-Premise: “Boundary-less”
Simple to Adopt and Use
“Solutions-Integrated” (iPod/iTunes)
Mobility = the Rule
A World of Information (and Insights)
On-Premise
Solutions “piece parts”
Complex to Adopt and Use
Mobility = the Exception
“Corporate” Information
Developed Economies
Large Enterprises
© 2008 IDC
New Alternative WW ScenarioNew Alternative WW Scenario
16
© 2008 IDC
7.3%
5.6%4.1%4.3% 3.9%
9.5%
2.3%
3.8%2.7%
0.4%1.2% 1.2%
US WE APxJapan Japan WW Korea
Q2 Black Book
Downside Scenario
Source: IDC Q2 2008 Worldwide Black Book, GRO estimates 17
2009 IT Spending2009 IT Spending
New WW GDP
Scenario2.8
%
1.9
%
2009 Old 2009 New
© 2008 IDC
-3.0%
3.6%
9.2%8.7%
-0.5%
12.8%
7.1% 7.1%
5.1%
7.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2.5%1.7%
-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
PC Peripherals Server Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services
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2008 & 2009 IT Spending by Product2008 & 2009 IT Spending by Product
Korea
-1.3%
4.4%
5.4%
7.3%
3.6%
9.8%
-0.8%-0.5%
3.6%3.7%
0.6%0.5%0.4%
5.7%
-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
PC Peripherals Server Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services
WW2008
2009
© 2008 IDC
Key Message
§ IT spending reductions are reasonable
ü IT spendings will not drop to zero or below as they were after dot.com bust and 9.11 terror
ü Alignment of IT and business
ü IT projects are multi-year base
§ About $3 billion of IT spending will be cut by directly afflicted financial services firms in 2009, not so much in the overall scheme of a global IT spending($1.5 trillion)
§ A much bigger impact will be felt from lower economic activities, lower consumer spending, falling home prices, and lower exports to the US
© 2008 IDC
Key Message(cont.)
§ Some IT projects will get cut or postponed – the strongest impact may be on project-based IT services. IT budget scrutiny will increase
§ Belt tightening will actually drive faster migration to new tech., virtualization, SaaS, IP-based Tele., enterprise web2.0 app.
§ Server markets will see slower growth from financial services sector directly
§ Inasmuch as new regulations are put in place, there will be more spending on software and services to enforce compliance