Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” Eraitfind.or.kr/smartkorea/2008/T3_2.pdf ·...

of 21 /21
© 2008 IDC Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” Era October 30, 2008 In-Hyung Baik Associate General Manager

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” Eraitfind.or.kr/smartkorea/2008/T3_2.pdf ·...

  • © 2008 IDC

    Enterprise IT in the “Post-Disruption” EraOctober 30, 2008In-Hyung BaikAssociate General Manager

  • © 2008 IDC

    AgendaAgenda

    2

    § Post-disruption

    § Building an alternative IT spending scenarioü Worldwide IT Market outlookü Korea IT Market outlook

  • © 2008 IDC

    Dis-rup-tionDis-rup-tion

    3

    a situation in which something is prevented from continuing in its normal way because of problems and difficulties

    Disruptive Routes to Market

    Disruptive Customers

    Disruptive Offerings

    Three Dimensions of Disruption

    ü

  • © 2008 IDC

    Line-of-Business ExecutivesLine-of-Business Executives

    What they want from their CIO/Senior IT Management

    3. Understand our business better

    4. Speed up (business) project delivery

    2. Make IT more dependable and secure

    1. Deliver more high-business value services

  • © 2008 IDC

    What’s New …What’s New …

    Next-Gen SIs(SaaS-based)

    Business Services

    Innovation Communities

    Mobile Internet

    (Online)

    Appliances

    Everything-as-a-Service(Apps, Information, Infrastructure)

    Dynamic IT/SOA

    SMB Long Tail

    BRIC… and Beyond

    Rising LOBInfluence

    Consumer MarketInfluence Mobile Internet

    (Online)

    Appliances

    Everything-as-a-Service(Apps, Information, Infrastructure)

    InnovationCommunities

  • © 2008 IDC

    Everything-as-a-ServiceEverything-as-a-Service

    • Software

    • Services

    • Hardware

    • Software

    • Services

    • Hardware

    OfferingDelivery

    Model

    “as”

  • © 2008 IDC

    Market Makers (& Ecosystems) Jump Feet First Into “Everything-as-a-Service”

    Market Makers (& Ecosystems) Jump Feet First Into “Everything-as-a-Service”

    • Market makers – notably IBM and Microsoft – will move strongly into Software-as-a-Service

    § Cisco and Google also

    • Other Segments Accelerate Online Shift

    § (Web 2.0) Data Center-as-a-Service

    § Storage-as-a-Service

    § BI-as-a-Service

    • Ecosystems shift online: new tools, new players

    § Online solution configurators are critical

    § Next-generation “-aaS” SIs

  • © 2008 IDC

    “Software as a Service”“Software as a Service”

    § SaaS Tipping Point in '07

    üIBM will create an online marketplace on WebSphere

    üSAP, Microsoft will accelerate SaaS strategies

    üLots of SaaS startups

    § LOBs “get it”…

    Q: Support concept of purchasing software as a business/hosted service?

    CIO

    No

    Yes

    LOB

    No Yes

  • © 2008 IDC

    No/Low-Skill Appliances for On-PremiseNo/Low-Skill Appliances for On-Premise

    • Next-generation appliances(“appPods”)

    • One (or two) server market-makerswill introduce this model in a big way in ’08

    § And … the leading SaaS disrupters will participate!

    § Internet-connected§ Pre-integrated, downloadable software

    appliances § No/low on-site skills needed

  • © 2008 IDC

    The (Mobile) Last MileThe (Mobile) Last Mile

    • A Flood of “Web Gadgets”

    •Open Mobile Internet

    § Many major mobile network operator networks will open upin ’08/’09

    § Intel is placing big bets in ’08, ’09

    § 1–2 palms wide, wireless Web-connected, consumer-priced, good at one or two things

  • © 2008 IDC

    Convergence 1.0 not same as Convergence 2.0

    § Convergence 1.0 is on mobile device level

    – Mobile device appropriates attributes of other consumer electronic devices

    – Networks remain distinct, easy to control

    § Convergence 2.0 is on the network level

    – All consumer electronic devices may directly connect to the network

    – Common IP protocol makes it difficult for operator to exercise control

    § Convergence impact on operator control unclear

    – Dual-mode devices may erode operator control

    ©2007 IDC 11

    Convergence 1.0 & 2.0Convergence 1.0 & 2.0

  • © 2008 IDC

    Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?

    Telecom

    Internet

    Media

    § Telecom, broadcasting media, and the Internet — all converging and competing in the same content delivery space

    § Result is collision of worldviews, business models (e.g., ad-based v. subscription-based)

    § Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space

    § Seek to lead, and shape necessary eco-system

    § Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction” force players to experiment with new business models

    §Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors — all jostling for dominance

    § User experience emerges as new battleground

  • © 2008 IDC

    The New “Innovation Infrastructure”The New “Innovation Infrastructure”

    •“Collaboration”(connect the brains)

    § Enterprise social networking

    § 14% have deployed, 27% additional plan in ‘08

    • “+ Information”(generate & analyze the information)

    § 10X growth in 5 years

    § Will flip “enterprise information” to primarily externally-sourced

    •“= ‘Eureka 2.0’”

    § IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Google

    § HP, EMC, Cisco, Adobe, Symantec, et al.

  • © 2008 IDC

    Essential Guidance

    Business

    Relevance& Value

    Adopt

    Quickly

    Access toInformation

    Affordable& Open

    Innovative

    IdeasSupport New

    Innovation Models

    Simple to Adopt& Affordable

    Solutions-packaged

    Mobile/

    Accessible

    New Information& InnovationInfrastructure

  • © 2008 IDC

    New Design Pointsfor the “Post-Disruption” MarketplaceNew Design Pointsfor the “Post-Disruption” Marketplace

    Post-DisruptionPre-DisruptionSmall/Medium, Consumers

    Emerging Economies

    IT “Embedded” in Business Service

    Business-Value-Oriented Partners

    Huge Partner Communities

    IT Vendor as the OEM

    Install-Oriented Partners

    Moderate-sized Partner Programs•PartnerRelationships

    Online & On-Premise: “Boundary-less”

    Simple to Adopt and Use

    “Solutions-Integrated” (iPod/iTunes)

    Mobility = the Rule

    A World of Information (and Insights)

    On-Premise

    Solutions “piece parts”

    Complex to Adopt and Use

    Mobility = the Exception

    “Corporate” Information

    Developed Economies

    Large Enterprises

  • © 2008 IDC

    New Alternative WW ScenarioNew Alternative WW Scenario

    16

  • © 2008 IDC

    7.3%

    5.6%4.1%4.3% 3.9%

    9.5%

    2.3%

    3.8%2.7%

    0.4%1.2% 1.2%

    US WE APxJapan Japan WW Korea

    Q2 Black Book

    Downside Scenario

    Source: IDC Q2 2008 Worldwide Black Book, GRO estimates 17

    2009 IT Spending2009 IT Spending

    New WW GDP

    Scenario2.8%

    1.9

    %

    2009 Old 2009 New

  • © 2008 IDC

    -3.0%

    3.6%

    9.2%8.7%

    -0.5%

    12.8%

    7.1% 7.1%

    5.1%

    7.1%

    1.4%

    0.3%

    2.5%1.7%

    -4.0%

    0.0%

    4.0%

    8.0%

    12.0%

    PC Peripherals Server Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services

    18

    2008 & 2009 IT Spending by Product2008 & 2009 IT Spending by Product

    Korea

    -1.3%

    4.4%

    5.4%

    7.3%

    3.6%

    9.8%

    -0.8%-0.5%

    3.6%3.7%

    0.6%0.5%0.4%

    5.7%

    -4.0%

    0.0%

    4.0%

    8.0%

    12.0%

    PC Peripherals Server Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services

    WW2008

    2009

  • © 2008 IDC

    Key Message

    § IT spending reductions are reasonable

    ü IT spendings will not drop to zero or below as they were after dot.com bust and 9.11 terror

    ü Alignment of IT and business

    ü IT projects are multi-year base

    § About $3 billion of IT spending will be cut by directly afflicted financial services firms in 2009, not so much in the overall scheme of a global IT spending($1.5 trillion)

    § A much bigger impact will be felt from lower economic activities, lower consumer spending, falling home prices, and lower exports to the US

  • © 2008 IDC

    Key Message(cont.)

    § Some IT projects will get cut or postponed – the strongest impact may be on project-based IT services. IT budget scrutiny will increase

    § Belt tightening will actually drive faster migration to new tech., virtualization, SaaS, IP-based Tele., enterprise web2.0 app.

    § Server markets will see slower growth from financial services sector directly

    § Inasmuch as new regulations are put in place, there will be more spending on software and services to enforce compliance