Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public

Driving Energy TransformationA look at energy trends to 2020

Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing

Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy

March 9, 2010

Today’s Presenters

Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy

Location: London, UK

Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing

Location: London, UK

Research and advisory arm of The Economist Group for business executives

650 analysts and industry specialists worldwide covering

• Analysis and forecasting for over 200 countries and territories

• Risk assessment

• Market sizing

• Industry data and trendsautomotive, consumer goods, energy, financial services, healthcare, technology

Familiar themes, unprecedented uncertainty

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Resource competitionResource nationalism

Policy uncertainty

Curbing & Pricing CO2

Energy security

EIU Energy Briefing – data tool


EnergyDeep-drill

EIU Energy Briefing – Deep drill


ObjectivesA dynamic tool to deal with uncertainty, complexityAdaptable to new information

Energy Briefing Deep-drill approach

EIU’s country-based approachIEA’s historic data for consistencyEIU Economic and Demographic ForecastsNational energy plans as reference pointEIU Country analysts change forecasts as new information emerges

Go to www.eiu.com/energydd

Country energy profiles in numbers

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts

China’s energy mix

Big picture – China’s key target


0

100

200

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400

500

600

700

800

2005 08 11 14 17 20

China USA

Not quite there (China, US Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

China’s 2020 target is 40-45% of 2005; At 34%, it falls short

US energy intensity declines by 23%

US – China: passing on the escalator


Overall energy consumption stays fairly flat but the US struggles to meet goal of 17% CO2 cut by 2020

China, already ahead of US as largest outright CO2 emissions, doubles CO2 by 2020 as it surges pastUS in outright energy consumption

CHINA: Rising gas keeps fossil fuel dominant


•Total energy consumption more than doubles to 3.6bn toe

•Fossil fuels’ combined share rises to 87% from 85%

•The rise is due to a nine-fold increase in gas consumption

•Coal remains dominant but its overall share drops from 64% to 61%

•Oil product demand rises 56% as the transportation sector expands

Nuclear, Wind share may grow more


•Electricity capacity to double by 2020

•Conservatively, Nuclear and Wind share will double –room to improve those targets

•Though Hydro grows 65%, its share falls

•Combustible fuels takes a growing share

Next leap forward

Zhang Guobao, boss of China’s National Energy Administration What might change?

•New “super ministry” created –National Energy Commission, headed by Prime Minister

•NEA 10-year plan to focus on 15% of total energy consumption from renewables

•Nuclear target may be increased –already raised twice but target share may rise to 5%

•More aggressive target for wind and other key renewables



A “BRICET” Example - Turkey

Without nuclear, the rise in electricity demand is to be met mainly from


Turkey – making small “green” gains

Relatively stable coal, oil and gas shares – renewables share grows from 8.4% to 10.25% in 2020. Wild cards are nuclear and privatisaion

Nuclear could have big impact

Taner Yildiz, Turkey’s energy ministerWhat could change?

•Nuclear could add as much as 9Gw, or 15% of electricity capacity, if Russian and Korean plans are completed

•Joint government ownership is likely, but the idea of public-private partnerships for nuclear has been floated

•Government is on track to have electricity fully privatised by 2013

•Turkey’s gas needs are projected to grow 47.5% by 2020


UK, gassing up

Natural gas takes up the slack as coal’s share declines


Ambitious targets


Coal economics

Drax Power Station – Selby, United Kingdom

•A belwether plant, accountsfor about 5% of UK capacity

•Most recently completed coal-firedPlant in UK

•Emits about 4% of UK CO2 emissions

•Has biomass co-firing capability of 500Mw

•Uneconomic to run biomass at CO2, subsidy prices


Questions and Answers

More Information?

Holly DonahueMarket Development [email protected] (212) 541 - 0596

Data and analysis from today’s presentation were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s energy briefing services. For more information on these services, please visit

www.eiu.com/energyddFor other services from the EIU including country analysis and forecasting, risk assessment, and economic data, please visit www.eiu.com

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Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public

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