Economic Pulse

8/2/2019 Economic Pulse

1/26

march/april 2012

Te ts o eono ontons onoe e estte ets oun te wo

a cusn & Wee rese pubton

EcONOmic pUlSE

ThE amEricaS

Bette tes eTe ente aes egon eeene sowown n 2011, but uneng

unents e oong u...

pge 5

EmEa

reoe ee, not neeTe eston o te soeegn ebtn bnng ss t Euoen

eono e weene...

pge 11

aSia paciic

Sow gowt eTe as p eonos nsens one o te bgt sots n tsengng gob enonent...

pge 18

GlOBal

chaNGE, riSk aNd OppOrTUNiTiESTese e engng eono tes n t ts ont, no one s u etn owte EU n US soeegn ebt ssues w out...

pge 2


2/26

GlOBal pUlSEchaNGE, riSk aNdOppOrTUNiTiES

maria T. SicOlaEeute mngng detoaes rese

prEpariNG Or rEcOvEry

Tese e engng eono tes n t ts ont, no one

s u etn ow te EU n US soeegn ebt ses w

out. howee, tee s sense o onstne ots s we

ntte te gob eono to stengten ung te seon

o 2012.

2


march/april 2012 GlOBal pUlSE | ThE amEricaS | EmEa | aSia paciic

Continued on Page 3

View Video


3/26

We Euoe ens te jo onen on eeones n, wt soeegn et

tngs ut not on n nebte nge ountes but n soe oe ets s we, te

Euoen cent Bn n intenton monet un e uous wong on

soutons. in ts ut n oe seno, we en esonb otst ttoe ootuntes o gowt n Euoe w eege ung te seon o 2012.

o gob e estte ets, te tue s s: sow stt n 2012 oowe b

oeent n te seon o te e. in ou e Economic Pulse oest, tee

e bgt sots tns to stonge eonoes n se ets n ue to new

stteges beng eoe to nge nge. Oues oun te wo, o ee,

e not sttng st, s eonstte b te g oue o oe esng tt n te

st 12 onts. mn ogntons e tng ntge o sowe gowt eo

n ow nteest tes to estutue otoos n est oun stteges n

eton o te net enson e. Ts ten, w s use soewt,

s so eete to u oentu te n te e.

in cusn & Wees Global Ofce Forecast 2012-2013 eese st deebe, we

ojete enng n tes n 37 o te jo 60 tes we te. rent teswee eete to nese n 47 tes.

On te nust ont, te sote gob eono w e eetute suggs

eone, tu n Euoe. regon, te getest ootunt be oun

n Not ae wee su gowt s been te n sng onsue n

busness en s e to e to ge te oues n nust outut.

GlOBal aNd rEGiONal TrENdS

aoun te wo, goenent eeegng s beoe oon tee. Te US

ontnues to stugge wt ts ge buget et ung n eeton e n soutons

ut ow see we oe. howee, s we oe nto 2012, we e seen

sgns o so bo et oeent, wt ete oste sto et esonses.

Tougout te aes, new onet n s oes n ountes su s B

n meo w stute stonge en n te seon o te e. cn n

soe ountes n Sout ae e ee ost une to gob eonowoes n en on ete so goun wt ontnue, bet sowe gowt

eettons. howee, nutung n cn n meo ontnues to ee te

eets o te US sowown n wts eoe to estoe eot setos. B w

ost bot te Wo cu n 2014 n Os n 2016, n s g on n ete

n oote seens.

GlOBal EcONOmy: ExpOrTS aNd Gdp

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

LATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICEURO ZONEUS/CANADA

SHARE OF GLOBAL EXPORTSSHARE OF GLOBAL GDP

(Purchasing power parity)

PERCENTAGEO

FWORLDTOTAL

rEaliTy chEck: ExpOSUrE TO EUrOpEaN SOvErEiGN dEBT

US/CANADA, 5%

ASIA PACIFIC, 11% GERMANY, 21%

FRANCE, 33%

OTHER EUROPEAN, 30%

3

GlOBal pUlSE | ThE amEricaS | EmEa | aSia paciicEcONOmic pUlSE

OrEcaST2012

Continued rom Page 2


4/26

in as p, te obnton o o nttes n te oset o stonge

en n te West ung te seon o 2012 s e to e to stonge gowt

ung te n s onts o te e. See ountes nung aust n in

e ong to stute en b oweng nteest tes, w sou boost

tt n te seon . a to ts te t tt ass eenene on te US n

Euoe o te ontnues to ns. On 10% o te $20-ton apac eono s

ttbutbe to te US n Euoe.

inestos en nteeste n to-te ets oun te wo n, toug enes

e utous, equt es e oong o ootunst s, n nsune s e

b n te ge wt es oo o t o 2012. n, nfton oes not e

to be get onen n n egon.

cONclUSiONS

Oe, cusn & Wee s oete otst bout 2012 n beon. We

te st b s oue b eono unetnt, we see oste sgns s ootons

ontnue to eoston tesees to wn te gt o tent, sttege to eue se

n osts, ebe eoee-en woe stteges n stengten te e

estte oston to eet ong-te objetes n ngng wo.

GrOWiNG cONcErN: GrOSS dEBT aS % Gdp (2011)

0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0%

U.S.

U.K.

JAPAN

INDIA

EUROPE

CHINA

BRAZIL

drivErS O GrOWTh: EmplOymENT & maNUacTUriNG OUTpUT(peent nge, 2012)

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

MANUFACTURING OUTPUTEMPLOYMENT

LATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICEUROPEUNITED STATES

drivErS O GrOWTh: privaTE cONSUmpTiON & ixEd iNvESTmENT(peent nge, 2012)

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

FIXED INVESTMENTPRIVATE CONSUMPTION

LATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICEUROPEUNITED STATES



4


5/26

ThE amEricaS pUlSEBETTEr TimES ahEad

kEN mcarThySeno Eonost, Seno mngng detorese

Te ente aes egon eeene sowown

n 2011 s te Euoen n US ebt ses use

busnesses n nestos to beoe oe utous nt sowe te e o gowt n te US te

egons n e. But uneng unents e

ontng to bgte utue s we oe nto 2012.

EcONOmic pUlSEOrEcaST

2012

GlOBal pUlSE | ThE amEricaS | EmEa | aSia paciic

5

Continued on Page 6

Listen to podcast


6/26

6

GLOBAL PULSE | THE AMERICAS | EMEA | ASIA PACIFICMARCH/APRIL 2012

A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication

ate eteotng n te seon o 2011, gowt n te aes s eete to

eboun n 2012. in te US, e Gdp s oest to gow t 2.6% te, not get, but

sgnnt oeent oe te 1.7% nese eoe st e. in ton, te e

o gowt s ojete to eete s te e ogesses. B te out qute o

2012, e Gdp s eete to be ng t 4.0% nnu te, oe wt 2.8% t

te en o 2011. iong bo ets sou boost noe, we te ousng seto

s n ojete to e oste ontbuton to gowt, bet te one.

Gowt s so eete to eete o 2011 ees n te ote n eonoes

o te aes. B w see nesng goenent stuus n te o o owe

nteest tes n ge senng, usng Gdp gowt to suge o 2.8% n 2011

to 5.0% n 2012. in meo, sng goenent senng n te onts beoe te Ju

esent eeton w boost gowt o 4.0% st e to bout 5.0% n 2012. in

cn, sng eots to te US w oset suggs oest en gowt n

boost Gdp gowt o 2.4% n 2011 to 2.6% n 2012.

amEricaS OrEcaSTS aNd TrENdS

ThE impOrTaNcE O ThE US cONSUmEr

Te aes s onte b te US onsue. Te tot Gdp o te ou n

eonoes n te egon s ote $19.6 ton. O ts tot, US onsue

senng ounts to bout $10.2 ton o sgt oe tn 52%. So, wen US

onsues g nto te wets, te ente egon benets en s booste o

goos nutue n cn, meo n B, s we s o ootes (o

o to ets to gutu outs) oue tougout te egon.

Te US onsue s been ge bsent o te eoe tt begn n 2009. in

te ten qutes o te en o te eesson n te seon qu te o 2009 to te

out qute o 2010, tot US onsue senng, juste o nfton, nese

b on 5.4%. Sne 1954, tee e been egt eessons n eoees o to te

ost eent eesson. Ts s susng we eone gen te et n

uton o te eesson. Usu, eee n onge eessons genete ste n

stonge eoees, but tt s not been te se ts te. Te ege ten-qute

nese n onsue senng n te eous egt eoees ws 11.5% (see t).

Eono eoen te aes sowe n 2011, but wsnot ee.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

Te n es o gowt,ow nteest tes, ent-u en, bne-seet

oeent t busness n onsue ees, e st e u n e.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

charT 1: cONSUmEr SpENdiNG iN rEcOvEriES

100.0%

102.0%

104.0%

106.0%

108.0%

110.0%

112.0%

TROUGH

=100

QUARTERS AFTER RECOVERY BEGINS

2009 AVERAGE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

+11.5%

+5.4%

kEy aNalySiS

Americanconsumersaccountformorethanhalfofallactivityinthefourmainregionaleconomies

Inthisrecovery,USconsumerspendinghasgrownatlessthanhalfitshistoricpace

Accelerationinspendingdrivenbypent-updemandwillboostoutputintheentireregion


CliCk to listen


7/26


2012


Ts suggs onsue en gowt s been use b nube o tos sow

eoent n noe gowt, we ousng tt n sng eneg es ong

te. But t s so ete ge ount o ent-u en n te eono tt

sou stt eng n te ong e. o ee, te ege ge o o

gt tu on te o n te US to s 10.8 es, te gest t s ee been. Ts

s et esut o te eesson n sow eoe, n t sue etens to ote

ns o ube goos o nes to untue.

Now, s goos e weng out, we e t ont wee tt en w nee to

be te on. Te e tgge s n oeent n bo ets, soetng tt s

unew. Sttng n te 2011, tee s been e oeent n US bo

ets, wt os ng n ng eetng. We t s o boong,

eoent gowt n te US oe te ost eent tee-ont eo ws

201,000 jobs e ont, u o 133,000 n te eeng tee-ont eo.

Wt ootons n bette nn se n ots t eo ees, s en

ses, busnesses e oe e to te s n e n 2012 tn te wee n te

seon o 2011. ste job gowt w genete stonge noe gowt, w s

e to e te e o onsue senng gowt o 2.0% nnu te n te

out qute o 2011 to 4.0% n te out qute o 2012.

Su ee tt w boost eono gowt tougout te aes. asUS onsue en ses, eots e ojete to nese n jo egon

eonoes, wt B n cn sowng te stongest gns n meo eete

to eeene oe oest eeton. E o tese ountes w so

eeene nges n oest en tt w so ontbute to gowt. in B

n meo, nese goenent senng s eete to n otnt oe n

gowt. in meo, senng ws ses n te qutes beoe n ete te

esent eeton. in B, wee etons e unew to ost bot te

Wo cu n Os n te net ou es, goenent senng w nese

s. in cn, eot gowt w eete, but oest onsue en s

e to sow ue to oest eoent gowt.

Oe, te aes egon s eete to see -u n eono gowt,

tu ung te seon o te e, s te unetntes tt e onte

te oest o te st nne onts o so begn to sste.

ThE riSkS

Tee en sgnnt ss to ts oste outoo o te aes. Ou

ojetons ssue tt te two jo nn unnowns, te soeegn ebt ss

n Euoe n te US buget et ebte, e gu esoe n su w tt

tee s oste t on nn ets n onene. as ou EMEA Pulse

onts out, te sto o te Euoen Unon s bse on eentu ng teut esons tt nee to be e to esoe ses. Wt te ost o ue so

doest en enset n cn, meo n B, ww ontnue to eeene ng ees o

eono gowt.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

7

charT 2: amEricaS 2012 SOUrcES O GrOWTh

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

USMEXICOBRAZILCANADA

PRIVATE DEMAND EXPORTS GOVERNMENT


8/268



g, t s ou ssuton tt te EU ees w one gn esoe te uent

nn enges, but ts ew s o etn.

an nube o ees o te nn souton ou une n ut te ss one

gn t te oeont o eeones n. as we sw so t eonstte

n 2011, e-eegene o te soeegn ebt ss n Westen Euoe wou one

gn owe onene n use busnesses, nestos n onsues to etet

o s. But te n t n te aes w be on onene, not eteono o nn ontgon. To be sue, nn ss wou e stess on US

nn nsttutons, but te jo US bns e sent te st tee es song

u te bne seets n, s te ous stess tests o te st see es e

eonstte, te e n u bette onton to wete jo nn ss.

Eosue to Euoen ebt s u se ee tn ws eosue to te US

ousng et n, tus, te t on nn sstes w be se.

Neeteess, oonge Euoen ss wou sut te eoe. it wou not

e t togete, but te us tue, stong eoe een ute nto te utue,

soetng tt s e oue one n te uent e.

pes te bgge s n te aes s te s tt te US buget et ebtew tun nto note tsn guent s to tt w oue n te sue

o 2011. We ts es une n n eeton e, t s not ossbe.

dEmaNd TO rEmaiN hEalThy

Te ong eono enonent n te aes s eete to e to et

esng unents n oe n nust ets, ong wt oeents n et

ets. rsng US onsue senng s gn t. as onsues boost outs,

en w nese oss te ente goos seto o te eono, o et

stoes toug te stbuton n to nutues n w tes oues.in ton, ots o onsue goos w gte ste. Te esut w be stonge

en o et se, te sng use o nutung tes n ontnung

nese n te use o weouse n stbuton se. at te en o 2011, US et

ses n e (nfton juste) tes wee t eo ees. as ts ten ontnues

n een eetes n 2012, et ets e e to see sng en o se .

inust n oe ets n te US w be nfuene b two sets o utuenong oes: sng en n te su. in US oe ets, new

onstuton s tu goun to t. in 2011, tot o 9.6 on sque eet

o oe se ws oete n te 41 ent busness stts (cBd) n sububn

ets te b cusn & Wee eesentng 15-e ow o new

onstuton n on 0.3% o nento. a s stuton ests n te nust

seto, wee new onstuton s been e sse.

in cn, meo n B oeent s so ntte. le te US, cn sw

tte new onstuton ung te eesson n eoe, eng to ow n tes

o oe se n ost jo tes. Notbe eetons, owee, e Toonto n

cg, wee stong ent-e eeoent s been oset b obust en.

lbo ets w ontnueto oe n te US, ng noe gowt n

nese onsue senng s te e ogesses.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N charT 3: cONSTrUcTiON cOmplETiONS vS. OvErall vacaNcy raTES

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

CONSTRUCTIONCOMPLETIONSMSF

VACANCYRATE

CBD COMPLETIONS

CBD VACANCY RATE

SUBURBAN COMPLETIONS

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013F2012F2010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986

SUBURBAN OVERALL VACANCY RATE


9/26


2012


in meo n B onstuton s boong, but so s te. Tese e te stongest

eonoes n te egon n e oest to gn oe see n 2012.

as esut, een wt g tes o onstuton, esng unents e oest to

oe wt n ng n ents nesng tougout te egon.

O ouse, te egee o oeent s ete on te te o eono gowt.

in te US, een gowt s oe oest, su s so te tt esng unentse e to ontnue to oe. in cn, wee en unents e esng

te sowng susng stengt toug 2009 n 2010, ent et oe n

n jo tes s t o ne sto ows. Ts s tggee new eeoent e

tt w oe soe ee o ge tennts wt ees n te 2014-2016 eo.

in meo n B, tee e gete ss eono gowt s wee tn

ntte ue to te g ees o new onstuton. in So poo o ee, new

su n te 2011-2013 eo s bout one t o estng nento. Wt ts

oebunne o sto, n eono sowown wou ete ss.

Oe, owee, ou bsene eono eettons suot oeent n esng

unents tougout te egon.

iNvESTmENT OppOrTUNiTiES lOOk Up

Wt nteest tes ow n bn bne seets n te aes ontnung to

oe, tee s st substnt ount o t be to nest n e estte.in 2010 tt t ws ge ouse on te e oe ets n Not ae:

New yo, Wsngton dc, Boston, Sn nso, los angees n Toonto.

in e 2011, s es n tese oe ets ose, nestos begn to oo t ote

ets wee ge es wee be, nung sububn ets. But wen

gob eono tt weene, nestos etete o s n etune to oe

ets. Te stong st ws enoug to us nestent ses n te aes

u b oug 51% o eesson-eesse 2010 ees. We ost o tt nese

ws n te US, oues n cn e been ng u sne 2010, wt 2011 beng

stong e o nestent, ese n Toonto. Esewee n te aes, oues

wee essent ft n own sgt n B. Tee wee stong gns n meo, butoues wee e ow.

o 2012, ong unents, oue wt st et nesto ette o

e estte, sou e to et gowt n te egon. cusn & Wee

oests nestent ses n te US w nese b bout 25%.

We ntte tt nestos w ontnue to sow oe wngness to te on s n

n ong eono enonent. Te esut w be stonge gowt n sububn

ets n n non-oe ets. Ts nese sou eten to te est o te

egon, tu B, wee eono oeent w be n otnt e.

Te seon o 2012s e to be bette tn te st n ost o te

egon, s unetnt s eue n senng bte US onsue eetes.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

9


10/2610



ThE amEricaS cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS (EBrUary 2012)

3-mO. iNTErEST raTE 10-yEar BONd raTE Gdp % pa iNlaTiON % pacOmmENTS

12-EB TrENd 12-EB TrENd 2011 2012 2011 2012

agentn 10.1 10.1 8.6 4.5 9.8 10.1Eono eete to eeete s n 2012 s te goenent etenes to euebuget et. hge nteest tes neee to o t fgt w so ween eono.

B 9.6 11.1 2.8 5.0 6.6 5.3Ese onet o eente n 2011 sou boost gowt n 2012. in tongoenent senng w nese e o Wo cu n Os.

cn 0.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.4contnue et oe en n ow n e tggee n enson e n cnsjo ent ets, n ong US en s eete to boste sububn ets n teeono n gene. inestent ets s we e eoe we sne 2010.

ce 5.0 5.0 6.2 5.0 3.3 4.4Eono s n nge o oeetng. Goenent s begun to se nteest tes n s eto ontnue to o so to sow eono gowt n o own nfton.

coob 12.4 12.8 5.7 5.5 3.4 3.3coob's eono s benete o stong esoue en n stong o en.

Uneoent s t eo ow n onsue senng s stong n eete to en so.

meo 4.7 4.8 4.0 4.5 3.4 4.0Te uong esent eeton w be te onnt to n meo s goenentsenng eetes. a n stonge US eono, n meo w e e so e.

peu 5.7 6.3 6.7 5.4 3.4 3.4peu's eono sowe stong, bne gowt n 2011 e b et onsue senng nsng eots. deeeton s e n 2012.

Unte Sttes 0.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 3.1 1.9Gowt s ong n nfton eeng. rs eson ens n ssue. Seon eeteto be stonge tn te st.

veneue 17.0 17.5 4.0 4.5 27.1 27.9Eono gowt w be en b oest senng n te un-u to te Otobe esenteeton, suote b sng o es. howee oest outon t s en engto sng ots. Te eono te o es .


11/2611

EmEa pUlSErEcOvEry dElayEd,NOT caNcEllEd

david hUTchiNGSptnehe o te Euoen rese Gou

OrEcaST 2012 SUmmary:hOpE iN SiGhT?

Te eston o te soeegn ebt n bnng ss t

Euoen eono e weene b ge nfton n

nteest tes, but so b wee eots ue to te tg

eents n Jn n sowe gob en oe gene.

as unetnt nese, onene eote, bngng e

n senng n sng te sete o eee nn ss..


OrEcaST2012

Continued on Page 12

Listen to podcast


12/26

most o Euoe now es te tet o wee gowt n et squeee.

uteoe, wt ongong eeegng n ustet, nube o ountes e

e enung etun to eesson.

howee, we gob ewns e ste oes o eot-e gowt, te

outoo o te egon oe s st juge b te jot o oestes to be ose

o oste gowt b te e en. Te st w en we but bette

gowt s eete te n 2012 s nfton s n oe stbe tten o gob

en eeges.

moeoe, we oe e eesson wou e ou esouton to te

soeegn ebt ss oes not stt, t s equ tue tt gowt eboun oe

stong one onene oes etun. in te sot te, ts wou suot oe

busness nestent, eeng nto job gowt n bette onsue en ute

own te ne bngng soe oe o 2013, not 2012.

markET aNd SEcTOr TrENdS

consue senng eboune soewt n te 2011 s soes stte to just

to ge nfton. lowe e neses ts e sou ute suot senng

owe, but eeegng w ontnue to o b onsuton oe n ongse onstne ub seto, ts ens oote senng n eots en e.

howee, te egons eot e s e tune own n ct 2 on ge 13

so onts to u n nestent senng. it s teeoe essung tt ong to

eettons, oote senng w be ete b 2013, n stong s ostons

ong eng ones ens tt soe not wt unt net e. deste

sotge o ebt, s-to-eu-se busnesses e e te n nube

o es, we ge es ou etun to te oe qute qu m&a tt s

nn ets stbe.

reoe n setos w b et eenng on te o esues ote

n te bne between stuus, ustet n eo. aess n nteton wtgob gowt ets w so be otnt, nung eegng ets n as n

ltn ae.

as ct 1 sows, te egee to w e Euoen eono ees on eots s

g be, but ost e oe e eose to nt-egon te te tn

eots to te est o te wo. Tose wt te getest eosue to non-Euoen

ets nue Now, ien, te Uk, Begu n Swten.

12

march/april 2012


charT 1: ExpOSUrE TO ExpOrTS aNd EUrOpEaN dEmaNd

Belgium

Ireland

Switzerland

Germany Netherlands

HungarySlovak Republic

Czech Republic

Austria

FinlandDenmark

PolandRussiaItaly

Turkey

SpainFrance

Romania

SerbiaBulgaria

Portugal

Norway

UK

HIGH IMPORTANCE

LESS IMPORTANCEEXPORTSAS%GDP:TORESTOFWORLD

EXPORTS AS % GDP: TO EUROPE

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Wt soe ountes b

n eesson,te ete outoo n Euoe

s e oo. howee, te seon o te e

ou be oe stbe, wt gete onene n gob

en enteng te tue.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N




13/26


2012

lEadiNG markETS

We u o Westen Euoe s ftng wt eesson, 2012 gowt o ost

ountes s oest to be oste, e b Now, Sween, aust n

den. Gen w sow te ts ste gowt n te st oue o es, but

out-eone w etun gen ts oette oston.

Gowt n cent n Esten Euoe s e u we n ute out-eone

s oest este obous eot ss. at esent, te best eone s eete

n russ, te Une, te Bts n pon. conens e nese oe te et

o te egons bnng seto, but se o oegn uen on eosue, ost

see esonb stbe, wt n oegn ents sowng otent n

enewe im suot so ossbe.

cOST O ailUrE TOO hiGh

a ees st est on wete te Euoone ss n be esoe n n e

essst on ts ont. cetn te ono o it wee to , ne ou be

net n ten t wou be to see ow te unon ou o togete. S,

te Uk ens sote, ts eono be te, but te stbt o te EU tse

ou be n queston.

howee, ose s o netbe. inee, we one n ostute on ow ong

t te o one o two ountes to eoe o eng te Euo, t s to

ontete te ost o ountes eng. it s so not too t to suggest tt

so oeson wou be t s te Euo oses, s oetton o ets, jobs

n esoues wou netb nese . agub, teeoe, we nnot o not tosoe te obe.

But ow o we set bout ts? as st ste, t s e tt Euoone goenents

ust stn ben te ebt. antng ese equtes to ng gt wt te gob

bon et n tt s nee been ee o suess. Soe w gue tt ts

on esses te stos n gnoes te oot use o te obe gob

bnes ong to soe, o gowt ong to otes but te st

equeent s to ee stbt n sow te wngness to eo.

ate tt we nee soe o te oses tt e on te tbe gete s

sne n obt, o ee n, utte, te tnse o one o

oetteness ust te e between Gen n te nge.


We t ens neb to et wt en, te otent ogoenents n nsttutons to esoe te soeegn ebt

ss oos nesng suent to ee te Euoone

ntt t est o now.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

charT 2: drivErS Or GrOWTh iN EUrOpE

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2013

ANNUALGROWTH

201220112010

C ON SU ME R C OR PO RA TE G OV ER NM EN T M A NU FA CT UR IN G

kEy aNalySiS

Allsegmentsoftheeconomyareforecasttoseeweakergrowthin2012

Consumerexpansionisslowingbutwilldrivedemandgrowthin2012

Corporatespendingandmanufacturingoutputwilldrivetherecoveryin2013

13

CliCk to listen


14/26


at te en o te souton eques o te, one n onene n

ens ot, not et, o. is tee te w to te te obes

to ut ebt, to e own so n unon essue, to eo n e-gne

eonoes? Te ost o not ong t wou be uge n sou be enoug to eete ooeton n se neee. But tt ssues tt ents eete o

not e n te ng set. i owe oes o ent to te steet, esons

w be to et.

Te EU oes, owee, e sto o ng ut esons, bet n ess tn

eegnt w. it stubes to souton s ooses e sow e. a nube o

su soutons e been suggeste nong ng egees o s unon n ebt

guntees, n uent ns n ee oe o s oen tn s

goenent ten te ou e. in tut toug, one ese n s not enoug

nube o nttes be b nube o es s neee to ste unen

t n te uen. inteestng, owee, togete wt gete gob oonton,ts ou e te w o otent nges n gob et sentent, w

busnesses nee to be e o.

STrUcTUral chaNGE aNd limiTEd SUpply drivE OccUpiEr markETS

Oues w be utous n 2012, but ets e st su, not en en n

ontons e o uno, wt soe ets su-onstne n seeng

osts nese, we otes e st stbng.

reent tt s ge been en not b enson, but b nee o bette

o oe eent se; ene, wt s e otnt o tt s not so u

enewe eono gowt s enewe onene. Soe oues e tng sto

n oe e e to et to unet nt b stng n stu, eng to oe ese

enegottons n gete ous on onsoton n netwo otton.

Noneteess, otes w st oo to nest. o ee, tee ontnues to be stong

en o ntenton etes oong to en nto oe ets. Seon

otons n unts n setos e e to see te nteest, owee, wt

o e su to nfuene oues.

Sustnbt s tng oe on oote esons ue to te ous on ost

ontnent, but tee e ote stutu es sng ets tougout

Euoe, su s te eonent gowt n e-tng, so e, ou outng n

eogs. Ote e es nue te t o new egutons o te bnng n

nsune setos, we ut- n bte ountn n t egutons so

t on oton eeenes.

Een te jgsw ees o wobesouton oe togete, uneng obes o we

gowt n oetteness w not be soe qu. Teebnng neee s gob n w te es, not onts.

Wt s oe, een s ub-seto ebt stbes, obes

w st ng oe te bnng seto n eeegng w

eete, eeenng te qut squeee.

kEy

ExpEcTaTiON


Unetnt w o boue tt, toug n busnessese e to te ton, t est n ost uttng n

ng een. howee, we oues w be n

stong oston n n ets, sotge o su s

st e to us u Ge a ents.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

14


15/26


2012


iNvESTOrS OcUS ON ThE BEST

Te nestent et s so seen gete uton, e n eson-ng n

enewe fgt to qut, but ow nteest tes sou suot en n 2012,

een te eono enonent weens. inee, te eense se o e estte ,

ese n oe ets, s stong, wt obust noe etuns onsee g

ttte wen set gnst uent bon tes.

Te ous w en on to tes n to ssets tt e oe ownse

oteton, s we s eosue to te use wen t oes. as esut, e tens

e e to ege ute, wt e, oe ets stbe o ossb own n,

s, Gen, but seon ets seeng es nese wee noe ees e

eee to be unebe.

Oe bn eeegng w to te qut squeee now beng seen,

suggestng bn nne o oet w en e onstne. at te sete, owee, bns w eege oe notb s sues o ootuntes, n new

soues o nne e so ste gowng.

STraTEGy

a e stteg onseton oss te egon w be te t o te soeegn

ebt ss on s eus n te outon n nestent e o ets

w ontnue to nge ts o cent Euoe e sown tesees to be ess

s tn ts o Westen Euoe, o ee. mets e pon n russ w

nese n otne oe to otes su s Geee, potug n Sn.

Oues be oe ee n tgetng eegng ets, but ost s n

nestos w st ous on te oe, wt Gen to en n stong en, ong

wt ountes wt stonge oest tt (Now, Sween, pon, Tue n

russ) n gete outt.

Soe s n nestos w see to es te Euo s b tgetng as n

te aes, s we s ets su s te Uk, Swten n Now. menwe,otes be e to te on s n stesse ets, wt it, o ee,

ossb eoeng oe tn ost n Sn tttng nteest o soe

ong-te bues s n wen qut sto eeges on te et.

charT 3: GrOWTh By rEGiON

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2013201220112010

ANNUALGDPGROWTH

CORE WEST

SOUTH NORDICS CENTRAL EAST

o oet nestent,uton w en, but te eoe se to be ee te tn nee. moe tn ee

ts eoe o e oet, n one tt w be

e b b o nne n ootuntes, eet

o tose e n be to e nto te ebt ountn.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

Tens w en g

beb ount, t n nust seto.

Tee w be wnnes n oses. infton w be owe,

but ote, n nteest tes w st ow o soe te.

kEy

ExpEcTaTiON

15


16/26

EmEa cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS (EBrUary 2012)


dEc 2011 TrENd dEc 2011 TrENd 2011 2012 2011 2012

aust 1.4 2.9 3.2 0.5 3.3 2.1Goo eent gowt s sowng ue to austs eot eenen, bnng seto wenesses nte t o nfton on ouseo senng.

Bn 2.3 N N 1.9 3.7 -0.4 3.0pot nstbt n efton ontnue to subue tt, but gowt s e u, ee bgoenent senng n ge o es.

Begu 1.4 4.1 1.9 0.0 3.5 2.2a new oton s t st n e, but Begu s st unebe to wee oest n etenen s we s ub seto ebt n bnng ss.

Bug 1.8 5.2 1.6 1.6 4.2 3.1Wee eots n subue onsues w t eoe, but nfton s own n ss e beeneue b new eg onstnts on ub seto ebt.

ce reub 1.2 3.6 1.7 0.2 1.9 3.1Euoone toubes e unene eots n, wt onsues subue, nfton nesng nnew ustet esues, te s o eesson s u.

den 1 1.6 1.1 0.8 2.7 1.8 lowe eots n subue onsues e ong b gowt, but goenent stuus n ewge gowt ou oe soe suot ts e.

nn 1.4 2.3 2.9 0.4 3.5 2.6peous gowt s sowng, but so s nfton. re wge gowt, s we s ese eotbse, w suot oest but boe ege gowt.

ne 1.3 3.2 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.9Gowt, eoent n et e weene n ss e u ue to s tgtenng, uteossbe tng ownge n ts es eeton.

Gen 1.3 2.6 3.1 0.6 2.3 1.8Wee eots n onene e ene eo o stong gowt, but obust bou etn sng e wges sou o u oest en.

Geee 1.4 32.3 -6.8 -4.4 3.3 1.5Stbt s oe wt new b out gee but te sot te outoo s oo wete o notGeee n en wtn te Euoone.

hung 7.2 9.9 1.7 -0.6 3.9 5.1

Gowt w en subue wt et ownges, wee eots n ute ustet n

eeegng, not to enton gowng ub ssent n nfton.

ien 1.4 8.6 0.8 -0.1 2.6 1.4We oest en w en onstne b ustet, eeegng n bnng ss,oetteness s oe n w e eots.

ise 2.6 4.2 4.6 2.7 3.5 2.3We obust, gowt s sowe s eot en s oe, but ng nfton w owute te uts to suot oest en.

it 1.3 7.1 0.4 -1.4 2.8 2.6Te new goenent wt EU/im ontong oes oe o eo, but ss e g wt ebtountn to enne n eesson eeong.

lueboug 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.8 3.6 2.2Busness sees oe stong 2010/11 Gdp gowt but wee Euoone en n obeso te egons bnng seto e sowe te eono substnt.

Netens 1.3 2.2 1.5 -0.3 2.3 1.8Wt oss o eo t oentu n negte wge gowt n sng uneoent wegng on

onsues, eesson e e etune.



16


17/26

EmEa cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS (EBrUary 2012)



Now 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.3 1.6moest gowt n onsue senng n e nestent w bne wee eot seto t bsowe gob outoo n stonge one.

pon 5 5.9 4.3 2.4 4.3 3.5Gowt s e u we, but eng ntos ont to oest sowown s wee eots,ge nfton n s tgtenng ente te tue.

potug 1.3 13.5 -1.5 -3.8 3.7 2.6contgon ss e ote ute ustet esues, esutng n etons o ongeeesson, but etun to gowt n 2013.

ron 5.6 7.5 2.5 1.1 5.8 3.2doest en s oe, unenne b im eos, owe nfton n se ngoenent senng, but wee eots n ub seto uts w t gowt ts e.

russ 7.2 8.5 4.3 3.5 6.1 6.6Unetnt n t outfows se b ub unest w t gowt este obust onsueen, e-eeton senng n te wee oube.

So 1.4 5.2 3.3 1.0 3.9 2.6 reent out-eone s ooe qu ue to eenene on eots to te EU, butonsues get oest boost o ng nfton.

Sout a 5.6 7.9 3.2 2.9 5.0 5.8doest onsuton n nestent e ong obust, but eots e been t b weeEuoone n te rns s e boostng nfton.

Sn 1.3 5.1 0.7 -1.3 3.2 1.7Te new goenent ns eos but so oe ustet n wt onsues n te bnngseto ng ute n, te eesson w be eee tn ee

Sween 2.7 1.6 4.3 0.8 2.6 1.4We st out-eong, stong gowt s ooe s onene s n onsues et to wee ousng n bou et.

Swten 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.2 0.2 -0.3Wee eots n stong n w t gowt, but oest en s oe obust, ee bow nfton n eng o te uen.

Tue 11.6 11 8.3 1.9 6.5 9.1

Stong gowt s sste qu s te utotes e ooe to ut te uent ount et

n stbe nfton wt ge tes n nteest tes.

Une 21.5 N N 5.2 2.8 8.0 6.6Wt no geeent on im ssstne o EU te, et onstnts n wee eots e ttnggowt but t est gutu outon s u.

UaE 1.5 N N 4.1 3.1 0.9 2.2reent gowt unenne b o es, tous n busness senng s e to ese ts e so es o n goenent senng s.

Uk 1.1 2 0.9 0.5 4.5 2.6reoe s been unene b obnton o wee te, ge nfton n ustet but esuton o QE n n nfton w e n 2012.

WestenEuoe

1.5 -0.1 2.8 1.9Wee gob te n te nbt o Euoone otns to e wt te ebt ss eunene gowt osets n nese te s o eesson.

EstenEuoe

4.7 2.5 6.3 6.4Eot ets en g eose to te Euoone, we s ustet n sng onsueonene w onstn oest en.


2012


17


18/26

aSia paciic pUlSESlOW GrOWTh ahEadBUT NO rEcESSiON

SiGrid zialciTamngng detoreseas p

OrEcaST 2012 SUmmary:

STill GOOd BUT NOT GrEaTTe as p eonos ns ens one o te bgt

sots n ts engng gob enonent. Ste Gdp gowt,

w ontnue toug 2011 on te b o et oest

onsuton n nestents, s eete to e 5.3% n 2012.

GlOBal pUlSE | ThE amEricaS | EmEa | aSia paciicmarch/april 2012


18

Continued on Page 19

Listen to podcast

EcONOmic pUlSE


19/26

Een so, te egon s not eous to sos. Eot gowt s been oetng

o ongong gob eono stns n w ute eten weness n te

eeoe wo os nto oe seous owntun.

Bng n jo eono suton, owee, we beee te uent bo

sou suot sustne stengt n oue en, toug unents w

b geog n su. Te obnton o et en n te new

eeoent w ow o gete ent gns n te gtew ets o cn,

nung Bejng n Sng. S , Ge a ents n Jt, Sne, meboune,

Te n Bngoe e set to ost new gs n 2012.

attte e otons, owee, w ontnue to boun n su-e ets

su s ho c mn ct, Seou, mub, New de n ku luu. menwe,

te egons to nn entes w en ong te ost susetbe to gob

ott, w ou ut essue on Ge a ents n ounes n hong kong

n Sngoe. Noneteess, te gue ots o so eono n e estte

unents sou e te w o ete obe osets o te nestent

et n 2012.

OrEcaSTS aNd TrENdS

Gen eettons o ft to oest gowt n Euoe, obne wt te ontnung

oete eoe n te US, t s esonbe to eet eono gowt n as to

en ntt n 2012. howee, sowown w be netbe n ountes ese

s te ownse ss st oo.

as-ps Gdp gowt s oest to ege 5.3% n 2012 o 6.0% n 2011,

but ge tn te 4.0% tt ee n 2009. Te owe gowt oest o

as n efets te eteotng outoo o eots to ne eonoes,

s we s wee eono osets n cn. Noneteess, te enson sou

en et enoug to suot eoent n noe gns n tus ue

eots to ebne soues o gowt o eten en to oe oest

n egon en.

in ost eonoes, nfton s not e to be s u o onen. as su, nfton

n te egon s ojete to eee to 3.7% n 2012 te eng 5% n 2011. rss

oun nfton w en gest o in n vetn, so t w be t o o

es to ste tt eu bne between eeng nfton une onto

we esonng to sowng eono. in Jn, es e eete to en

bo ft, wt tte o no nfton.

Eegng as e b cn, in n inones w en te egons neus o

gowt n te net two es, wt oest en te e e o eono

tt. deste sgns o oong, cn s eete to nge sot nng ts e.

Goenent senng s we s ete stong te onsuton sou e

tee ss o oetng oet et n ontton n eots (ct

1). Su et oest en boes we o egon eotes; cn s

eoe nto n otnt tng tne toug ts ots o nutue goos

s we s ootes.

charT 1: rEGiONal ExpOrTS TO chiNa

0 - 10% 11 - 20% 21 - 30% > 30%

New Zealand

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

India

Indonesia

VietnamJapan

Australia

Taiwan

South Korea Hong Kong

ExpOrTS TO chiNa (% O TOTal)

Gob weness ontnues toteten eots n ou e seee tons te Euoen ss eeens o note jo

so ses.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N


OrEcaST2012

19



20/26

menwe, obust nestent n te onsuton w be te nn o

inoness eono stengt (ct 2). Bot t rtngs n moos inesto

See se inoness soeegn tng to nestent ge, te ounts st

su tng sne te asn nn ss. Ts eeoent sou e eete

nestent n ssst te goenent to se uns t owe nteest tes.

in in, Gdp gowt s e to stbe, s uent s onstnts n sowng

eots e to oest ub n eono tt, n ten otent u,

s nfton eses n use n te te-e e s neste n owe nteest

tes tt buo nestent. Te ounts busness oess outsoung (BpO)

nust w en bgt sot n n nesng oette gob ete.

Gowt sou eboun n Jn, Tn n New zen, s eonstuton

nestent es te ne-te eono u. Jn s ente sees o

sse eonstuton bugets tt sou boost outut n 2012. in Tn, te

goenent s oe te buget o wte-ngeent nstutue tt sou

e su eono tt. at te se te, goenent oes to boost wges

e eete to stengten onsuton. menwe, New zens unebt

to etques ontnues to sow own te e o ebung. Noneteess,

eonstuton eots w e stute te eono n te seon o 2012.

Te enson o te nttes stns to boost egon te eone n te

ong te. ate sgnng ee-te geeents wt te US n Euoe, Sout koe

e sussons wt cn n Jn n deebe to te goun wo o

tee-nton ee-te geeent. anote tngbe sgn o ogess ws te gee

ewo o te Tns-p ptnes (Tpp) ee-te geeent une n

2006 b Sngoe, New zen, ce n Bune. Notb, sussons e been

une w sne m 2010 to nue e ote ountes aust, ms,peu, te US n vetn. Jn nnoune n Noebe tt t w o jon te

Tpp negottons. a o tese ts e sgnnt, s te ou otent eeo

bbone o ute egon ntegton n ns wt ote eonoes, n tus,

oe te egons eono esene.

WEaThEriNG aNOThEr dOWNTUrN

To be sue, as p w not be une o n gob ownt, but see

tos sou ow te egon to ee te t ngebe. st, ts ete

et oeono unents sou ow t to e out te ss. regon

goenents e te bt to juous eo te o toos neee to boostnesto n onsue onene, n ensue sustnbe gowt n nn stbt.

howee, te soe o s o onet stuus s e to be se ete to

2009. Noneteess, t ows te egon to unete stutu eos n e

te neess ub nestents n nstutue n euton tt ou enne

oest soues o gowt n te ong te. Tus , ost cent Bns e

ontnue wt te gu esng o te onet stne, but wt ontnue gne

to ss o nfton essues.

Seon, we te eeenng Euoen ss n suggs US eoe ose tet to

te, eots to te US n Euoe uent e u on bout 10% o te US$20

ton as-p eono. in ton, te se o te egon eot tot ssun o oe tn one t n 2000 to 28% to s nt-egon te nese.

charT 2: dOmESTic dEmaNd iS maJOr GrOWTh drivEr

China

CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT TOTAL EXPORTS

12%

24%

29%

16%

18%

64%54%

48%

34%

India Indonesia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

inesng nt-egon te,us ontnue eono stengt ong te egons

oweouses, cn, inones n in, sou suotete goo gowt n te egon.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N



20

EcONOmic pUlSE


21/26

Notb, te se o te wtn te egon now ounts o ose to 60% oe

to oe 40% n 2000. O ouse, unebtes w e oss ountes (ct 3).Te t wou be se o oest-en bse eonoes, su s cn,

in, n inones, n ge o g oen eonoes su s hong kong,

Sngoe, ms, pnes, Tn n Twn. Een n te eent o owntun n

Euoe, 1% ontton o Euoen Gdp ou ss egon eots to Euoe b

just 14.4%.

T, te egons eosue to Euoen soeegn ebt s so ow, t 0.03% o

Gdp, so te t o te ss be n. We beee tt uent enges

e ete to sowng gob gowt o asn bns, te tn et bne-seet

tets. as-p bns e bette qut oes, wt on-to-eost tos

gene ow b gob oson. howee, tgtenng o et et ontons

gt oe to be oe onsequent. i Euoen bns stt eeegng b sng

b te oss-boe ons n bung te t n eo o nn tuo,

t wou be etent o te ente egon, s te e n otnt soue o

unng o n asn bnng sstes.

lst, een s te uent eono nse s beoe oe engng tn ee,

te ong-te tens en n o o te egon, tu s gowng eegng

et eonoes oe unes o ons o onsues nto te e ss n

ubnton ontnues to gte ste. in ton, gobton w ontnue to e

te egon ntegte nto te wo eono n st te so ong s btge

ootuntes est.

OccUpiEr dEmaNd TO mOdEraTE

WiThOUT STrONG caTalySTre estte et ontons n 2012 w en g segente oss te

egon. Gene, we st eet et oue en to suot oste oe

bsoton, but t owe te oe to 2011. We eet te bunne o ss

to oste uton ong oues n sustn te ous on te tonton o

se equeents n nton o osts.

howee, ent eus w e n ut-tgt otons su s Bejng n

Sng, wee te obnton o et esng tt n te new su w

ee oe btes ow n te ents on n uw tjeto. S, stong

eono ontons w ontnue to ue te e estte seto n Jt, meboune,

Sne n Te, wt Ge a oe ents eete to e new gs n 2012.

inoton tenoog ubs n in w en n g en, tu n

Bngoe, wee Ge a oe ents e eete to soot u n ost note

g wte. a sng BpO seto w unen mns e estte et n

charT 3: rEGiONal ExpOrT acTiviTy

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

0.0% 4.0%

Malaysia

Taiwan

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Singapore

Hong Kong

Korea

China

Japan

Australia Indonesia

NZ

India

8.0% 12.0%SHARE OF EXPORTS TO GDP

LOW RISK MEDIUM RISK HIGH RISK

EXPORTSTOU

S/EUASPERCENTOFGDP

16.0% 20.0% 24.0%

a soun eono outoow ontnue to ee nto gowng e ss, s

we s ubnton oe te ong te.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N

kEy aNalySiS

Smallereconomiesmoreexposedtoaglobalslowdown


2012


21

CliCk to listen


22/26

esut n ent gns n 2012; een so, Ge a oe ents e st sgnnt beow

te e ees n 2008. rents n Bngo e eete to en stbe n 2012, s

te eonstuton gets une w, but ts s e to be teo, s te o

new oe su w tgten ts et uon te esuton o stong en.

menwe, tennts w e e ttte ootuntes n su-e ets.

Ts s ese tue o ets su s ho c mn ct, Seou, mub, New

de n ku luu wee uttue o otons w tnste nto etee oe ents esus te eous es n 2008, n nue nos to

ontnue oeng nentes to ttt o etn tennts. in Too, we eet

ontnuton o tennts nesng eeene o newe n sueo qut oe

bungs tt bost etque-esstnt etues. hene, we eet bungs tt

oe onne n 2012 to be ten u, usng Ge a oe ents to stbe n een

ee u n soe ses.

Te oe seto n hong kong n Sngoe w en ong te ost unebe

to gob sos ese gen te ge esene o utnton ones n

bot ets. ate ttng new eo n te t qute o 2011, Ge a oe

ents n hong kong begn te esent s oeono tens weene. Wtoutenngu Gdp gowt n 2012, sustne oeent n ents n oun w

be engng o hong kong een new su ens n e. howee, oues

enewng te ese n 2012 e not e to benet o su tens, s ents w

en sgnnt boe tose n 2009 wen te sgne te ogn ese.

in Sngoe, te sowng gob eono oentu so ut nto oe ent gns n

te n qute o 2011, n ts ten s e to esst n te eent o oonge

sowown. St, ent ses e tng o te st, wt te goenents otent

to suot obe oe se toug n bt o oe eeoent,

eton, o eeeoent. consequent, we eet oe nes n Sngoe

to ten ge tn te equbu n o 7%, n suot gu ent

oeents oe te ne te; n, n tun, Ge a ents e st e to en

beow te e ees n 2008.

aN OaSiS O iNvESTmENT OppOrTUNiTiES

Te gene oste egon eono outoo n 2012, obne wt etbe

s-juste etuns, w ontnue to set te stge o sustne nestent

ootuntes wtn te egon. an substnt nge n eono outoo o te

Euoone n te US w e weg on sentent n ene et oentu e

n 2012. We eet nestos to ontnue teng utous n ee we-ote,

stbe oe ootuntes tt oe stbe noe oe n e gtew tes s

tot etun .

Gene, we eet es to en ete stbe o oe oetes oss te

egon eet o tose ets tt otent ou see qu ut n n

ue to su essues. peng nteest tes n nfton essues n soe

eegng eonoes su s cn n in w so enouge oegn t to see

ootunst nestents ese n e-use ojets. Tese ets ongse

inones n ms sou ttt neent s t.

Te eent e nnouneent to onse eeng ben nteest tes ow unt

en o 2014 s e to ut on n ne-te ses n nteest tes n as, tus

enng suote o uent unewtng etes. howee, ew ets e

eete to onten wt engng unng enonent. a se n ont s hongkong, wee qut ontons e eete to en tgt n 2012.

O ouse, we eet nestent tt to gn oe tton ese te sense

o ss es n woese unng ets en qu. Te ontnung stengt n

te egon eono oe te ong te ete to gowt enges n te US n

utes n Euoe etes oe stbe bo o e estte nestents.

conene s eetng,so nestos w sow ontnue nteest n

oe ssets to owe s n unetno-enonent.

kEyExp

EcTaTiO

N



22

EcONOmic pUlSE


23/26

TaBlE 1: cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS (JaNUary 2012)

3 -mO. iNTErEST raTE 10-yEar BONd raTE Gdp % pa iNlaTiON % pacOmmENTS


aust 4.25 3.79 1.90 2.50 3.4 2.20mnng eots n nestent w onte austs eono gowt, estte t 2%-3% toug net e. itsotunes en te to cn, we s ousng et wou weg on onsuton onseb n 2012.

cn 6.56 3.49 9.10 7.40 5.4 3.20Te eono s set o sot nng n 2012. Gdp gowt s eete to onege to te goenents 7%-8% tgette between 2011 n 2015. Te t o n ene n en o te US n Euoe s eete to be oest.

hong kong 0.50 1.39 4.90 1.20 5.3 3.50hong kong ens g susetbe to owntun n oeses en gen ts eot-oente eono. pteonsuton w o u bette on te stengt o bo et n enngs n e Gdp gowt o 3.3% n 2012o 4.7% n 2011.

in 8.50 8.79 7.00 7.00 8.5 5.10Eono enson s eete to stbe oun 7% gnst bo o wee gob gowt. Te ent bnens nbte b nfton onens s we s wenng te et tt ou b ge n 2012.

inones 6.00 6.03 6.30 5.80 5.3 5.00inones sou oe wt te eete sowown n gob gowt, s eots ount o ete s otono Gdp. reent nteest te uts sou suot te onsuton n nestents, n, n tun, Gdp, w s

eete to stbe oun 6.0% toug 2012.

Jn 0.05 1.02 0.50 1.50 -0.3 -0.25Ongong eonstuton n Toou regon w be w be et ost n 2012, usng Jns Gdp gowt to oe1% n 2012. howee, te ount ens n efton stte, w wou e nestent esons. anetng en ou e nsent eoe.

ms 3.00 3.70 4.90 3.10 3.2 2.20

Te goenent's sse nestent og w oe sgnnt tton to te eono n 2012, een seots en gge own b te suggs eeoe eonoes. howee, ojete eono gowt se to sot o te goenent's tget o 6%, w s been set n oe to oe ts e to beoe g-noe eono.

pnes 4.50 5.75 3.50 3.00 4.8 3.40

Wnng en o eetons w g own eot gowt but ettne nfows n noe o busnessoess outsoung sees s eete to soe u oest en. Te ent bn w o o tes noe tgete o toos w te ente stge to nge nfton n uen eton wtout sougngong-te n di nfows.

Sngoe 0.38 1.63 4.90 1.40 5.1 3.20Sngoe s ong te ost unebe to snng Westen en; eono gowt n 2012 s been sowee to between 1%-3%. Wt oes eent e to ut oegn t n te ousng et, te entbn s be to oee wt oe oote onet oes sou te nee ses.

Sout koe 3.55 3.82 3.60 2.80 4.0 3.10Sout koen eono gowt, estte t 3.6% n 2011, s eete to sow to beow 3% n 2012. atoug ts etennn unebt s oe sne 2008, t ens qute susetbe to ott n gob nn ets.

Twn 1.88 1.28 4.10 1.70 1.4 1.40Twn's eono ens nge on eten en, n we eots n 2012 wou ute ut onsuton,n egten te s o otte owntun. Te kmT's o on ot owe ts esue o sbt ntes o ts eono oes wt cn.

Tn 3.25 3.20 0.70 3.90 3.5 3.59Te eoe o te foo-nue ub n outon s eete to be stong n s. doest ens e to en esent s su n oe soe este sou te gob eono enonent eteotes.

vetn 14.00 12.50 5.70 5.10 18.2 9.20

Eono se n te eeoe wo, obne wt g oest nfton uttng nto onsuton n

nestents w nbt Gdp gowt n 2012. its wnng oegn esees, on uent ount et, geten ebt n we uen ees t unebe to u-bown et ss sou one eut n Euoe.


2012


23


24/26

Ou knowege cente oes ouse tougt-ees eots to suot oue estte n busness esons. Wt oe 80,000 egstnts, cusn & Wees

knowege cente s one o te nusts ost esete noton esoues on

sets o oe e estte.

Ou enu nues Gob rese reots, lo met reots, Busness Bengs,

Eono reots n u oe. Go to cusn & Wees knowege cente t:

www.usnwee.o/nowege

cUShmaN & WakEiEldS kNOWlEdGE cENTEr

Sn oe to sgn u oc&W knowege cente

metbet Busness Beng Eono puse Gob Oe oest



24

EcONOmic pUlSE


25/26

maria T. SicOla

Eeute mngng detoaes reseSn nso, ca

[email protected]

kEN mccarThy

Seno EonostSeno mngng detoreseNew yo, Ny

[email protected]

david hUTchiNGS

ptnehe o te Euoen rese Goulonon, Uk

[email protected]

CONTRIBUTORS

cusn & Wee s te wos gest te-e oe e estte sees . Te on ses n eesents ents on sets o

oet oun n nestent, n s estbse eenent oston n te wos jo ets, s eene b ts equent noeent n n

o te ost sgnnt oet eses, ses n ssgnents. oune n 1917 t s 235 oes n 60 ountes n oe tn 14,000 eoees. it oes

oete nge o s ees o oet tes, u-ntegte on gob bss, nung esng, ses n qustons, ebt n equt nnng, nestent

bnng, oote sees, oet ngeent, tes ngeent, ojet ngeent, onsutng n s. Te s oe tn $5.5 bon n

ssets une ngeent toug ts wo-owne subs cusn & Wee inestos. a eogne ee n o n gob e estte ese, te

ubses ts et noton n stues onne t www.hmnwkf.m/knwg.

Ts eot s been ee soe o noton uoses. it oes not uot to be oete eston o te ets o eeoents ontne nts te. Te noton on w ts eot s bse s been obtne o soues we beee to be ebe, but we e not neenent ee

su noton n we o not guntee tt te noton s ute o oete. pubse b coote countons.

2012 cusn & Wee, in. a gts esee.

World Headquarters

cusn & Wee, in.

1290 aenue o te aes

New yo, Ny 10104

+1-212-841-7500 Te

eMea Headquarters

cusn & Wee

43/45 potn Sque

lonon W1a 3BG

Engn

+44-20-7935-5000 Te

+44-20-7152-5360

asia-Paciic Headquarters

cusn & Wee

26/ Te hequtes Bung

168 xng zong lu

Sng 200001, cn

+8621-2320-0808 Te

+8621-2320-0909

ChaRT aNd TaBle SOURCeS

paGE 3 GlOBal EcONOmy: ExpOrTS aNd Gdp

Source: IMF, WTO, Cu shman & Wakefeld

paGE 3 WakE-Up call: ExpOSUrE TO EUrOpEaN SOvErEiGN dEBT

Source: Bank o Internationa l Settlements, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 4 GrOWiNG prOBlEm: GrOSS dEBT aS % Gdp (2011)

Source: IMF, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 4 drivErS O GrOWTh: privaTE cONSUmpTiON & ixEd iNvESTmENT

(pErcENT chaNGE, 2012)

Source: Moodys Analytics, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 4 drivErS O GrOWTh: EmplOymENT & maNUacTUriNG OUTpUT

(pErcENT chaNGE, 2012)

Source: Moodys Analytics, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 6 cONSUmEr SpENdiNG iN rEcOvEriES

Source: US Bureau o Economic Analysis

paGE 7 amEricaS SOUrcES O GrOWTh 2012

Source: Moody s Analytics

paGE 8 cONSTrUcTiON cOmplETiONS vS. OvErall vacaNcy raTES

Source: Cushman & Wakefeld Research

paGE 12 ExpOSUrE TO ExpOrTS aNd EUrOpEaN dEmaNd

Source: Cushman & Wakefeld, National Statistics Ofces

paGE 13 drivErS Or GrOWTh iN EUrOpE

Source: Oxord Economics, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 15 GrOWTh By rEGiON

Source; Consensus Economics , Oxord Economics, Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 17 EmEa cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS

Source: Consensus Economics Inc , Oxord Economics and Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 19 rEGiONal ExpOrTS TO chiNa

Source: Multipl e Sources

paGE 20 dOmESTic dEmaNd iS maJOr GrOWTh drivEr

Source: Roubini Global Economics

paGE 21 riSkS TO US aNd EUrOpEaN dOWNTUrN

Source: Cushman & Wakefeld

paGE 23 cOUNTry EcONOmic OrEcaSTS

Source: Roubini Global Economics, UOB, Asia Bonds Online, Cushman & Wakefeld

SiGrid zialciTa

mngng detoreseSngoe

[email protected]


2012


25


26/26

www.usnwee.o

Economic Pulse

Documents

Transcript of Economic Pulse