Crop Outlook Webinar July 1 2016 Purdue Center For Commercial … · 2016-07-01 ·...

2016 Crop Outlook Webinar July 1, 2016

2016 Crop Outlook

Chris Hurt, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics

James Mintert, Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture

David Widmar, Sr. Research Associate, Center for Commercial Agriculture

2016 Crop Outlook Webinar, July 1, 2016

Stocks SituaGon Stocks June 1 Pre-‐Report

ExpectaGon Difference

-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐ Million Bushels -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐

Corn: Bearish 4,722 4,528 +194

Soybeans Bearish 870 833 +37

Wheat: Neutral 981 982 -‐1


Acreage SituaGon June Acres Pre-‐Report

ExpectaGon Difference

-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐ Million Acres -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐

Corn: Bearish 94.15 92.76 +1.39

Soybeans Neutral 83.69 83.66 +.03

Wheat: Bearish 50.82 49.73 +1.09


95.9

88.0 94.1

73.9 82.7

83.7

55.9 56.8 54.6 50.8

45

55

65

75

85

95

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Mar June

Mill

ion

Acr

es

Corn, Soybean, Wheat Planted Acres

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Vs. 2015 Corn +7% Beans +1% Wheat -‐7%


U.S. Planted Acres (1,000) 2016 vs. 15 2016 vs. 15

14 15 16 Change % Corn 90,597 87,999 94,148 6,149 7% Soybeans 83,276 82,650 83,688 1,038 1% Wheat 56,841 54,644 50,816 -3,828 -7% Cotton 11,037 8,581 10,023 1,443 17% Sorghum 7,138 8,459 7,225 -1,234 -15% Oats 2,753 3,088 3,027 -61 -2% Barley 3,031 3,558 2,967 -591 -17% Rice 2,954 2,614 3,212 598 22% Sunflower 1,565 1,859 1,645 -214 -11% Sum 9 Major 259,193 253,452 256,751 3,300 1%


+4.9 M

2015 Prevent Plant = 6.7 M


34.3%

36.0%

19.7% 21.5%

22.4%

26.0%

22.7%

15.1% 15.2% 15.0% 16.0%

18.4% 21.2% 21.3%

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% World Stocks to Use %: USDA June 2016

Wheat

Soybeans

Corn


2016 Percentile Crop Condition Rank for 2000 to 2016 (Assumes Normal Distributions)

U.S. U.S. IND INDCorn Beans Corn Beans

6/13/16 85% 91% 73% 84%6/20/16 86% 90% 71% 84%6/27/16 82% 89% 71% 85%

-----------------Bushels/Acre------------------------USDA/Purdue 168 46.7 170 51

6/20/16 171.4 47.7 174.1 52.96/27/16 171.1 47.8 174.1 53.3


Soybeans:USDA

6/30/16 Purdue 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 16/17

Carryin 169 141 92 191 280 280 Production 3,034 3,358 3,927 3,930 3,878 3,944 Total Supply 3,239 3,570 4,052 4,151 4,188 4,254 Seed & Residual 89 106 143 130 125 125 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,875 1,890 1,900 1,910 Exports 1,320 1,638 1,843 1,850 1,875 1,900 Total Use 3,098 3,478 3,861 3,870 3,900 3,935 Ending Stock 141 92 191 280 288 319 Farm Price $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $9.05 $10.75 $10.30

Planted: 83.7 Hvst. 83.0* 46.7bu/ac


$11.84 Nov 16 Soybean Futures

$8.50


Corn: USDA

6/30/16 Purdue 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 16/17 Carryin 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,616 1,616 Production 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,540 14,714 Total Supply 11,932 14,686 15,479 15,392 16,197 16,366 Feed & Residual 4,336 5,041 5,317 5,225 5,575 5,600 FSI Non-Fuel 1,396 1,369 1,359 1,360 1,370 1,380 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 4,648 5,124 5,207 5,250 5,300 5,310 Export 731 1,920 1,865 1,940 1,950 1,950 Total Use 11,111 13,454 13,748 13,775 13,725 14,290 Ending Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,617 2,002 2,076 US Farm Price $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.70 $3.60 $3.50

$3.60-$3.80

$3.00-$4.00

Plant 94.1 Hvst. 86.6 * 168bu/ac


$4.50

$3.65

Dec 16 Corn Futures


$5.25

$4.23

July 16 Wheat Futures


BREXIT Direct Impacts: Limited •  Trade with EU and UK small

Indirect Impacts: Unknown •  Stronger US Dollar •  Slower Global Economic Growth?

•  Sign of Less Global Coopera`on/Trade?


Summary

•  Corn & wheat rally appears to be over

•  Look at storage opportuni`es for 2016 corn & wheat

•  Forward price 2016 soybeans, 25%-‐35%

•  Crop margins remain `ght, but soybeans help

Crop Outlook Webinar July 1 2016 Purdue Center For Commercial … · 2016-07-01 ·...

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