2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf ·...

45
Mark Seetin, Director, Regulatory and Industry Affairs U.S. Apple Association Mark Seetin Director, Regulatory and Industry Affairs U.S. Apple Association 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overview

Transcript of 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf ·...

Page 1: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Mark Seetin Director Regulatory and Industry AffairsUS Apple Association

Mark SeetinDirector Regulatory and Industry Affairs

US Apple Association

2017 US Apple Crop Outlook and Overview

This presentation summarizes USApplersquos 2017 Production and Utilization Analysis

2017 USDA APPLE CROP FORECAST

Source USDA - August 10 2017

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production

2813 2684

12014 4

2016

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 2: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

This presentation summarizes USApplersquos 2017 Production and Utilization Analysis

2017 USDA APPLE CROP FORECAST

Source USDA - August 10 2017

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production

2813 2684

12014 4

2016

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 3: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

2017 USDA APPLE CROP FORECAST

Source USDA - August 10 2017

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production

2813 2684

12014 4

2016

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 4: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production

2813 2684

12014 4

2016

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 5: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

125014501650185020502250245026502850

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

2813

23902684

2487

TOTAL US APPLE PRODUCTION(MILLION) 42-LB UNITS

Down 7from 2016

Two of the last four crops have been in the top five years of historical production

2813 2684

12014 4

2016

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 6: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

323 (2016)

2520 million bu production

268 million bu production (2016)

Source USDA

468 (1995)

BEARING ACRES(000rsquoS)

6 percent higher production

31 percent fewer acres

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 7: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4504
4515
4492
4551
4597
4595
4626
4676
468
4676
4608
4297
4093
3948
3905
3855
3767
370
351
350
3506
3478
342
331
325
323
318
324
323

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Page 8: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987+E1W2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4479 4504 4515 4492 4551 4597 4595 4626 4676 468 4676 4608 4297 4093 3948 3905 3855 3767 370 351 350 3506 3478 342 331 325 323 318 324 323
Page 9: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

YIELD PER ACRE2003-16

Source USDA

831

500550600650700750800850900950

Yield Per Acre (42 lb units)

50 Increase in 13 years

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 10: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

EASTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

58326 59924 51533 55786

Source USDA and USApple

Up 8

Source USDA

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 11: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
East
583261904761905
599238095238095
515333333333333
557857142857143

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 12: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 58326 59924 51533 55786
Page 13: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

28976 28662 30655

22500

Source USDA and USApple

Down 27

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 14: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
Midwest
289761904761905
286619047619048
306547619047619
22500

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 15: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
Midwest 28976 28662 30655 22500
Page 16: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LB UNITS

-

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

87302 88586 82188 78286

Source USDA

Down 5

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 17: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USDA
East amp midwest
87302380952381
885857142857143
821880952380952
782857142857143

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 18: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East amp midwest 87302 88586 82188 78286
87302380952381 885857142857143 821880952380952 782857142857143
Page 19: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

EAST amp MIDWESTPERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

0

20

40

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2014

2017

F

38

3137

31 31

Source USDA and USApple

5-Yr Average = 34

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
Page 20: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
038
031
04
034
034
037
037
035
041
03492517416
03815050779
03103690537
03706478318
03061959462
03148219073

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017 F
Page 21: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 F
East 43 42 38 31 40 34 34 37 37 35 41 35 38 31 37 31 31
34
5 yr average
34
Page 22: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

WESTERN APPLE PRODUCTION(000) 42-LBUNITS

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

2014 2015 2016 2017 F

193983 150417

186229 170381

F = Forecast

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 23: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USDA and USApple
West
193983333333333
150416666666667
186228571428571
170380952380952

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 24: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014 2015 2016 2017 F
West 193983 150417 186229 170381
Page 25: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

WASHINGTON FRESH APPLE CROP(MILLION 40-LBBOXES)

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Growers Assn August 1 Report Various Years

5 Year Average =127

0

50

100

150131

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 26: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

States 2016 2017 F fr 2016 5 yr av from 5 yrNew York 28095 28571 2 28238 1Appalachia 17629 20238 15 19563 3New England 2507 3429 37 3304 4North Carolin 2476 2500 1 2488 0Total East 51533 55786 8 54439 2Michigan 27976 19048 -32 21762 -12Total Midwest 30655 22500 -27 25937 -13Washington 174286 159524 -8 158333 1California 5976 5476 -8 5867 -7Oregon 4652 4167 -10 3556 17Total West 186229 170381 -9 169860 0Total US 268417 248667 -7 250236 -1

2017 USDA Crop Forecast

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 27: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

New England 37 above 2016 and 4 above 5 yr av

New York Up 2 from 2016 and 1 above the 5 yr av

Michigan Down 32 from 2016and 12 below the 5 yr av

Washington 8 below2016 and 1 above the

5 yr av

Appalachia 15 above 2016 and 3 above the 5 yr av

California 8 below 2016and 7 below the 5 year av

USApple 2017 Regional Estimates

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 28: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source USDA

320336

Down 5

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESALL APPLE SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 29: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

189
209
135
174
229
231
252
303
371
303
257
336
32

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 30: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet2

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
Page 31: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
189 209 135 174 229 284 232 231 252 303 371 303 2570 336 32
Page 32: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

50100150200250300350400450500

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFRESH SALES -2016 CROP

(CENTS PER POUND)

Source USDA

Down 7

412441

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
Page 33: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

294
181
244
317
377
377
301
314
325
394
453
405
327
441
412

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2016
Page 34: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016
294 181 244 317 377 377 301 314 325 394 453 405 327 441 412
Page 35: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Source USDA

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

213201

Up 6

AVERAGE US GROWER PRICESFOR PROCESSING -2016 CROP

(DOLLARS PER TON)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 36: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VOLUME ndash 2016 CROP(000 42 LB UNITS)

4250645085

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

UP 6

Crop Year

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 37: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
31036
361398474941429
333851433095714
35032
410539
41089
434268
44054
467407
441603
528685
424865
45085

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 38: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Exports 31036 36140 33385 35032 41054 41089 43427 44054 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085
44049 46741 44160 52869 42506
Vs 2001-01
0
Page 39: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

TOTAL US FRESH APPLE EXPORT VALUE ndash 2016 CROP (MILLION US DOLLARS)

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Up 3 from 2015 Crop

$954332

$928574

Crop Year

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
Page 40: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

TOP FIVE APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS - 2016 CROPTOP 5 COUNTRY SHARE OF TOTAL EXPORTS

Source USDA FAS-Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) August 4 2017Exports reported on July ndash June marketing year

Country MT(000)

42 lb Bu of total

Mexico 260716 13680Canada 135369 7106Taiwan 64799 3401India 45142 2370

Hong Kong 38596 2026Others 314304 16498Total 858926 45085

3016854

37

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
Page 41: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

US-CHINA TWO WAY TRADE

Imports from China comprised 21 percent of total imports (2016 Crop Year)

Volume Value (000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)

Exports 961 22793$ 2371$

Imports 164 4328$ 2644$

bull US-China trade agreement finalized in early 2015 called for mutual market access for fresh apples

bull Second year of two way trade (July ndash June 2016-17)

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
Page 42: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

final

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Table 18
Top Twenty Apple Export Markets (000 42 lb Units)
CROP YEAR VALUE
COUNTRY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (in 000 $) of total For Slides For Slides
BU MT
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 3035 45085 13685 260711
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 1576 45085 7106 135369
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 754 45085 3401 64799
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 526 45085 2370 45142
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 449 45085 2026 38596
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 307 45085 28587 16498 314309
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 384 45085
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 316 45085 858926
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 233 45085 13685 45085000
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 213 45085 7106
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 224 45085 3401
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 176 45085 2370
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 103 45085 2026
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 111 45085
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 070 45085
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 105 45085
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 099 45085
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 082 45085
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 070 45085
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 051 45085
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 1118 45085
Total Exports 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 $954332 10000
Source USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) and US Department of Commerce 2015 vs 2014 2015 vs 2013
Exports are based on a marketing year of July through June Data for text
6 -15 Total Exports 14 425
Text -6 -15 Total Exports 15 451
15 Export Decline -6
Check 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 Mexico 15 137 Mexico 30 Exports
Mexico 14 123
Canada 15 71 16
Canada 14 74
India15 34 India 14 8
India14 30
China
2015 Volume 791
2015 Value $Millions $175
Page 43: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

wkst

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Final Data
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dollar Value Current Year
Mexico 14071 12094 15642 12350 13685 $260165 45085 304
Canada 8390 7136 7637 7401 7106 $170028 45085 158
Taiwan 3960 3101 3861 3016 3401 $82679 45085 53
India 3077 2770 5833 2670 2370 $49259 45085 75
Hong Kong 2300 1886 2289 1760 2026 $43567 45085 45
Vietnam 725 1667 1813 1069 1385 $36494 45085 38
Indonesia 2525 1896 1560 2071 1731 $37710 45085 31
United Arab Emirates 2011 2837 3030 1929 1423 $27502 45085 32
Dominican Republic 688 754 936 945 1049 $22723 45085 21
China 54 36 756 747 961 $22793 45085 23
Saudi Arabia 866 1026 1483 967 1011 $20013 45085 22
Thailand 1046 1039 1113 957 791 $17465 45085 18
Costa Rica 369 416 450 552 463 $9947 45085 10
Colombia 882 721 742 731 501 $9196 45085 07
Israel 159 465 252 328 314 $9373 45085 11
Guatemala 359 466 499 563 472 $8826 45085 10
Honduras 399 401 376 417 445 $8149 45085 10
El Salvador 277 351 363 505 368 $6380 45085 07
Philippines 259 345 480 384 315 $7095 45085 05
Singapore 310 241 247 337 230 $5546 45085 08
Others 4013 4513 3507 2791 5039 $99422 45085 112
Total 46741 44160 52869 42487 45085 954332 1000
0
Page 44: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet4

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Page 45: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
2016
BU MT
Mexico 13685 260706
Canada 7106 135366
Taiwan 3401 64798
India 2370 45141
Hong Kong 2026 38595
Total 28587 544606
0
Others $ 16498 314304
45085 858910
37
Page 46: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Volume Value
(000 42 lb units) (000s) Per BU ($)
Exports 961 $ 22793 $ 2371
Imports 164 $ 4328 $ 2644
Page 47: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APPLE BALANCE OF TRADE( US DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)

$954

$708

$247Apples contributed a net positive trade balance

of $708 million from the 2016 crop

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 48: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

UTILIZATION OF THE 2016 APPLE CROP

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products12

Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 67Processed ndash 33

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 49: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Fresh51

Not Marketed

20Total

Canned140Juice

27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fresh ndash 51Processed ndash 49

UTILIZATION OF THE 1994 APPLE CROP

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 50: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

GROWTH IN FRESH MARKET DRIVES GROWER INCOME

Fresh67

Not Marketed39

Total Canned106

Juice119

Other Products

12Dried30

Frozen12

Fresh Slices12

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016

Fresh51

Not Marketed20

Total Canned140

Juice27

Other Products

10Dried40

Frozen10

Fresh Slices00

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

1994

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 51: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

2016 CROP FARM GATE VALUE -UP 3 - NEW RECORD AT $346 BILLION

Crop Year2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626Value of Processing Production (00 $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834Total Farm-GateValue of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not availableNoncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 20172 Total revenue to grow ers from fresh and processing sales

At $346 billion farm gate value of the 2016 crop was up 3 over 2015

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 52: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

final

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Table 2
Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 2012-2015 Crop Years
2012 2013 2014 2015 Text
vs2014 vs2013
All sales (cents per pound) 3710 3030 2570 3420 33 13 2015 vs 2014 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 4530 4050 3270 4500 38 11 FR 2015 vs 2014 38 FR 2015 vs 2013 11 13 fr av 405
All processing (dollars per ton) 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 PR 2015 201 15vs14 13 PR 2014 178 PR 2013 197 2013v15 2
Canned (dollars per ton) 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 All Sales 15 342
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 Ju 15 130 122 15vs14 7 Ju 15 vs 13 10 145
Frozen (dollars per ton) 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 All S diff 15 v 14 85
Dried (dollars per ton) 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 All Sales 14 257
Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 All Sales 13 303
Other (dollars per ton)2 24300 na na na 0 0 All 15 v 13 13
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 15 Fr fm gt val 309 14 Fr fm gt val 258
Value of Processing Production (000) $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 Pro 15 v 13 -5 14 Fr fm gt val 293 15Fr fm gt val 308
Total Farm-Gate 2015 FR Av 450 14 FR Av 327
Value of Production2 (000) $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 15 Fm Gt Rev 339 15vs 14 18 14 Fm Gt Rev 287
15 Fr Val 309 Fr 15vs 14 20 14 Fr Val 258
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available 15 Pr Val 308 Pr 15vs 14 5 14 Pr Val 293
2NASS did not report a category Other for 2013-15 in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released July 6 2016
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
check $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 53: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Crop Year
2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2792848 $2577739 $3041358 $3113626
Value of Processing Production (000) $340088 $293006 $308737 $348834
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Production2 (000) $3132936 $2870745 $3350095 $3462460
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summaryvarious years na = not available
Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2016 Summary releasedJune 27 2017
2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
Page 54: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Worksheet

ampCamp16Table 2Season-Average Apple Prices Received by US Growers 1995-1998 Crop Years
Page ampP

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
2014 data and earlier were shifted left to add 2015
2015 2015 2015 2015
vs vs vs vs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
All sales (cents per pound) 303 371 303 257 342 33 13 -8 13
Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 394 453 405 327 450 38 11 -1 14
All processing (dollars per ton) 22600 28100 19700 17800 20100 13 2 -28 -11
Canned (dollars per ton) 23000 39500 22300 20200 23800 18 7 -40 3
Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 19800 22100 14500 12200 13000 7 -10 -41 -34
Frozen (dollars per ton) 24600 32800 23300 23400 24300 4 4 -26 -1
Dried (dollars per ton) 21400 17600 19100 15200 18600 22 -3 6 -13
Fresh Slices (dollars per ton) 35700 30200 38300 42500 40900 -4 7 35 15
Other (dollars per ton) 20100 24300 na na na 0 0 0 0
Total Farm-Gate
Value of Productionsup1 (000) $2310982 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 18 8 2 20
22 17 -5 -8 18
Value of Fresh Production (000) $2034441 $2489414 $2987611 $2792848 $2577739 $3085971 20 10 3 24
22 20 -7 -8 20
Value of Processing Production (000) $276541 $341370 $327385 $340088 $293006 $308214 5 -9 -6 -10
23 -4 4 -14 5
Source National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years
sup1 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales
2008 2009 2010
check $0 $2830784 $3314996 $3132936 $2870745 $3394185 198 132 183
Note na = Not available
NASS did not report a category Other in the Noncitrus Fruit and Nuts 2015 Summary released in July 6 2016
Page 55: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

MORE INCOME FROM SIMILAR SIZE CROP1994 CROP ndash 2738 MILLION 42 LB UNITS2016 CROP ndash 2684 MILLION 42 LB UNITS

Comparing 1994 and 2016 crops - Season-Average Prices Received by Growers Inflation adjusted

2684 2738 CPI ADJ 2016M bu M bu to 2016 vs2016 1994 1994 1994 ADJ

All sales (cents per pound) 320 128 207 35Fresh consumption (cents per pound) 412 182 295 28All processing (dollars per ton) 2130 1120 1814 15Canned (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Juice and cider (dollars per ton) 1630 897 1453 11Frozen (dollars per ton) 2440 1480 2398 2Dried (dollars per ton) 2020 820 1328 34Fresh slices (dollars per ton) 3900 na na naValue of Fresh Production (000) $3113626 $1207270 $1955777 36Value of Processing Production (000) $348834 $219318 $355295 -15Total Farm-Gate

Value of Production2 (000) $3462460 $1426588 $2311073 33Source USDANASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary various years na = not available2 Total revenue to growers from fresh and processing sales Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation

growers received 33 more from 2016 crop

33

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 56: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

101411

254648

257148

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Apple Production (000s)Five Year Rolling Average 1943- 2017

(1994 ndash 98)

APPLE PRODUCTION (000 42 LB UNITS)5 YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE 1943-2017

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 57: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYDRIVING VARIETY REBALANCING

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 and June 1 were analyzed

(Crop Years 2011 ndash 2016)

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 58: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Inventory Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 59: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Red Granny Golden Gala Fuji Rome Cripps Pink Honeycrisp McIntoshJune 1 Inventory Moved

124 million

MARKET NEWS 6 YEAR VARIETY COMPARISONJUNE 1 INVENTORY AND NOVEMBER 1 ndash JUNE 1 MOVEMENT BY VARIETY

Nov ndash Jun Moved

June 1 Inventory (Millions 42 lb units)

Source USApple Market News

Red Delicious (6 year average)71 of Nov 1 Stocks Were Moved by June 1

29 of Nov 1 Inventory Remained on June 1

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 60: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

bull 6 Years of Market News Inventories from November 1 2016 and June 1 2017 were analyzed

bull Red Delicious June 1 inventory averaged 29 of November 1 inventory

bull Red Delicious June 1 2017 inventory represented 47 of all June 1 variety inventories (6 year avg was 38)

INVENTORIES REFLECT MARKET ACTIVITYMARKET NEWS INVENTORY ANALYSIS

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 61: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

US RED DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source USApple F = Forecast

118

51 F

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 62: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151
883
104
1011
98
1062
1105
1182
1002
104
903
1094
827
907
69
63232
57786
72577
676
653076033015
563899514259
598048925521
579465009024
583
54156265065
559703398617
585914908112
607
502
645
508857977669

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 63: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
1151 883 104 1011 98 1062 1105 1182 1002 104 903 1094 827 907 69 632 578 726 676 653 564 598 579 583 542 560 586 607 502 645 509
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54156265065028 559703398616943 585914908112013 622623019346193 50360153278237 53152
542 560 586 623 504 532
69703 50212 64484 50886
697 - 0 502 - 0 645 - 0 509
Page 64: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

US GOLDEN DELICIOUS PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

15

20

25

30

35

40

Source USApple F = Forecast

195

41

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 65: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

East
33
414
364
372
364
337
383
376
354
357
343
397
339
357
292
277
259
302
296109438144
282634063477
251856318376
249145043703
255705463086
251066791422
22
241
264682267007
221369937297
200553034435
195330910083

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 66: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
East 33 414 364 372 364 337 383 376 354 357 343 397 339 357 292 277 259 302 296 283 252 249 256 251 220 241 265 221 201 195
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
23305 0 24075 0 26468 0 22137 0 20055 0 19533
233 241 265 221 201 195
251 233 231 256
Page 67: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

Source USApple

28

57

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 68: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

East
057
051
054
046
056
044
045
04
041
041
03850173817
03632194934
03687129467
03614376225
03525897321
03466236174
036
03383069742
03258212624
03039589561
02977491887
028

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 69: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F Avg
East 57 51 54 46 56 44 45 40 41 41 39 36 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 30 30 28 41
35 36 33 33
Page 70: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

WESTERN US FUJI PRODUCTION(000 42 LB UNITS)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000242

Source USApple F = Forecast

18

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 71: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

17318
20357
16430
21350
195749244057449
194159397088921
182132838799744
200769785197452
252836218659973
186665907692457
242085068129483
200769785197452
252836218659973
203144231923327
243626538563264
242099556556147

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 F
Page 72: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F
17318 20357 16430 21350 19575 19416 18213 20077 25284 18667 24209 20077 25284 20314 24363 24210
Page 73: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

WESTERN US GRANNY SMITH PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

231

Source USApple F = Forecast

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Page 74: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

157
166
17
189
143
164
163
188
202
183
182
193
185
22
210474005712
200942966771
189193787399
220555894504
195684859291
192901752266
228076210837
211397995738
283231561827
234045039684
22861785559
231344887888

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Page 75: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
157 166 17 189 143 164 163 188 202 183 182 193 185 22 210 201 189 221 196 193 228 211 283 234 229 231
22808 22823 28323 28323 23405 22862 23134
228 228 283 283 234 229 231
2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 2016 2017
22823 0 28323 0 23405 0 22862 0 23134 0 0
Page 76: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

US GALA PRODUCTION(MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550 44

Source USApple F = Forecast

10

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Page 77: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Chart1

Source USApple
East
122
147
158
203
188
195
26
229512779037
2544020823
277042462293
303531449415
2990212999
327416090404
345439752467
378510151306
378912026563
466117807243
377577118216
505407286962
442766351253

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Page 78: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Sheet1

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
East 122 147 158 203 188 195 26 230 254 277 304 30 33 35 38 38 47 38 51 44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
53132 58591 46612 37758 50541 44277
53 59 47 38 51 44
36279 0 37891 0 46612 0 37758 0 50541 0
Page 79: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

HONEYCRISP AND CRIPPS PINK (PINK LADYtrade) (MILLION 42-LB UNITS)

2013 2014 20152016

2017

9492 10899 13192

15206 16649

5160 6556 6981 8482 8346

Honeycrisp Cripps Pink

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
Page 80: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

334

237

141

5314

80

166 225

21 5000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Golden Delicious

Gala

Red Delicious

Honeycrisp

Cripps Pink

Source Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA)

Washington State Variety Mix 2005 - 17ldquoVariety Rebalancingrdquo

Fuji and Granny Smith

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
Page 81: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

2017 APPLE CROP - SUMMARYbull When considering the advances made by

the industry in recent yearsndashbull The ability to effectively market larger cropsbull Increased productivitybull Better postharvest management ndash improved qualitybull New varieties aimed at consumer preferencesbull Innovative marketing programsbull Export prospects

There is real reason to be optimistic about the 2017crop

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45
Page 82: 2017 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overviewusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MarkSeetin.pdf · 2017 U.S. Apple Crop . Outlook and Overview. This presentation summarizes USApple’s

Thank You

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • bearing acres(000rsquos)
  • Yield Per Acre2003-16
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Eastern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • Eastern and Midwestern Apple Production(000) 42-Lb Units
  • East amp MidwestPercent of Total Production
  • Western Apple Production(000) 42-LbUnits
  • Washington Fresh Apple Crop(Million 40-LbBoxes)
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Average US Grower Prices All Apple Sales -2016 Crop(Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Prices Fresh Sales -2016 Crop (Cents per Pound)
  • Average US Grower Pricesfor processing -2016 Crop (dollars per ton)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Volume ndash 2016 Crop(000 42 lb Units)
  • Total US Fresh Apple Export Value ndash 2016 Crop (Million US Dollars)
  • Top Five Apple Export Destinations - 2016 CropTop 5 Country Share of Total Exports
  • US-China Two way trade
  • Apple Balance of Trade ( US Dollars in millions)
  • Utilization of the 2016 Apple crop
  • Utilization of the 1994 Apple crop
  • growth in Fresh market drives grower income
  • 2016 crop Farm Gate Value -up 3 - new record at $346 billion
  • More income from similar size crop1994 crop ndash 2738 Million 42 lb units2016 crop ndash 2684 million 42 lb units
  • Apple production (000 42 lb units)5 year rolling average 1943-2017
  • Inventories Reflect market activitydriving variety rebalancing
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Inventories Reflect market activityMarket news Inventory analysis
  • US Red Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Golden Delicious Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Red and Golden Delicious As a Percent of Total Production
  • Western US Fuji Production(000 42 Lb Units)
  • Western US Granny Smith Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • US Gala Production(Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Honeycrisp and Cripps Pink (Pink Ladytrade) (Million 42-Lb Units)
  • Slide Number 43
  • 2017 Apple Crop - summary
  • Slide Number 45