Crop Market Outlook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook Hawkeye Farm Show Cedar Falls, Iowa Mar. 5, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911
description
Crop Market Outlook. Hawkeye Farm Show Cedar Falls, Iowa Mar. 5, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13. Corn Yields. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Crop Market Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Market Outlook
Hawkeye Farm ShowCedar Falls, Iowa
Mar. 5, 2014
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 92.0
Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 165.3
Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,985
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,481
Imports (mil. bu.) 28 29 162 35 25
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,491
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 5,400
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,000 5,000
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 1,430
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,834 1,543 731 1,600 1,550
Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,300 13,380
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,481 2,111
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 79.5
Yield (bu./acre) 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 45.2
Production (mil. bu.) 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 3,550
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 141 150
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 16 36 30 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,459 3,715
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700 1,725
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 130 88 90 99 105
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,510 1,600
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,309 3,430
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 215 169 141 150 285
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.70 9.65
Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012Units: Bushels/acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012Units: Bushels/acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 3/4/2014
4.65 4.664.60
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 3/4/2014
13.04
11.47
10.89
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Prices vs. Costs
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2013/14 Crop Prices
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2014/15 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC
3-Month Temperature Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2014 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so goodAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
USDA
Unofficial
2013/14
Futures
(3/4/14)
2014/15
Futures
(3/4/14)
Corn $4.50 $3.90 $4.65 $4.66
Soybeans $12.70 $9.65 $13.04 $11.47
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Markets
Source: USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Arable Land
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
