2016/17 Wheat and Barley Market Outlook & Strategies · 2018-02-15 · 2016/17 Wheat and Barley...
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2016/17 Wheat and Barley Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist [email protected] 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c) NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics STUDENT FOCUSED • LAND GRANT • RESEARCH UNIVERSITY
Transcript of 2016/17 Wheat and Barley Market Outlook & Strategies · 2018-02-15 · 2016/17 Wheat and Barley...
2016/17 Wheat and Barley
Market Outlook &
Strategies
Frayne Olson, PhD
Crop Economist/Marketing [email protected] 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c)
NDSU Extension Service
ND Agricultural Experiment Station
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
STUDENT FOCUSED • LAND GRANT • RESEARCH UNIVERSITY
U.S. All Wheat 2014/2015 2015/2016 (est.) 2016/2017 (Feb)
Planted A. 56.8 Mill. A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.2 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 46.4 Mill. A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.7 bu. 43.6 bu. 52.6 bu.
Begin Stocks 590 Mill. Bu. 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,026 Mill. Bu. 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,310 Mill. Bu.
Imports 151 Mill. Bu. 113 Mill. Bu. 125 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,768 Mill. Bu. 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,410 Mill. Bu.
Food 958 Mill. Bu. 957 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu.
Seed 79 Mill. Bu. 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 114 Mill. Bu. 152 Mill. Bu. 225 Mill. Bu.
Exports 864 Mill. Bu. 775 Mill. Bu. 1,025 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 2,015 Mill. Bu. 1,952 Mill. Bu. 2,271 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,139 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2014/2015 2015/2016 (est.) 2016/2017 (Feb)
Planted A. 56.8 Mill. A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.2 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 46.4 Mill. A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.7 bu. 43.6 bu. 52.6 bu.
Begin Stocks 590 Mill. Bu. 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,026 Mill. Bu. 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,310 Mill. Bu.
Imports 151 Mill. Bu. 113 Mill. Bu. 125 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,768 Mill. Bu. 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,410 Mill. Bu.
Food 958 Mill. Bu. 957 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu.
Seed 79 Mill. Bu. 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 114 Mill. Bu. 152 Mill. Bu. 225 Mill. Bu.
Exports 864 Mill. Bu. 775 Mill. Bu. 1,025 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 2,015 Mill. Bu. 1,952 Mill. Bu. 2,271 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,139 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Total Production is 12.0% above 2015, but not a record.
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Mill
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Bu
she
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Food Exports Feed & Residual Seed
U.S. All Wheat Use(Million Bushels)
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 5
U.S. All Wheat 2014/2015 2015/2016 (est.) 2016/2017 (Feb)
Planted A. 56.8 Mill. A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.2 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 46.4 Mill. A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.7 bu. 43.6 bu. 52.6 bu.
Begin Stocks 590 Mill. Bu. 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,026 Mill. Bu. 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,310 Mill. Bu.
Imports 151 Mill. Bu. 113 Mill. Bu. 125 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,768 Mill. Bu. 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,410 Mill. Bu.
Food 958 Mill. Bu. 957 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu.
Seed 79 Mill. Bu. 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 114 Mill. Bu. 152 Mill. Bu. 225 Mill. Bu.
Exports 864 Mill. Bu. 775 Mill. Bu. 1,025 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 2,015 Mill. Bu. 1,952 Mill. Bu. 2,271 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,139 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Food use changes with U.S. population
growth and flour extraction rates.
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2014/2015 2015/2016 (est.) 2016/2017 (Feb)
Planted A. 56.8 Mill. A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.2 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 46.4 Mill. A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.7 bu. 43.6 bu. 52.6 bu.
Begin Stocks 590 Mill. Bu. 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,026 Mill. Bu. 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,310 Mill. Bu.
Imports 151 Mill. Bu. 113 Mill. Bu. 125 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,768 Mill. Bu. 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,410 Mill. Bu.
Food 958 Mill. Bu. 957 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu.
Seed 79 Mill. Bu. 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 114 Mill. Bu. 152 Mill. Bu. 225 Mill. Bu.
Exports 864 Mill. Bu. 775 Mill. Bu. 1,025 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 2,015 Mill. Bu. 1,952 Mill. Bu. 2,271 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,139 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Exports are critical for U.S. wheat pricesand are forecast to increase 32.2%.
However, the 2015/16 exports of 775 Mill. Bu. is the lowest since 1971/72,
which was 610 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017
Weekly U.S. All Wheat Export Sales(06/01/2014 – 02/02/2017)
USDA-FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Met
ric
Ton
s
Accumulated Exports
2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015
U.S. All Wheat Export
Destinations(1,000 Metric Ton)
2016 All Wheat Exports by Country – FAS Online
Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Japan 3,512.1 3,544.0 2,674.3 3,120.5 2,434.0
Mexico 3,495.9 2,760.5 2,940.3 2,721.1 2,318.1
Philippines 2,038.6 1,965.2 2,013.1 2,337.9 2,118.4
Nigeria 3,248.0 3,002.1 2,629.4 1,904.0 1,401.2
South
Korea1,983.0 1,385.0 1,287.0 1,148.1 1,073.7
Taiwan 887.9 1,038.1 980.0 1,001.6 1,033.7
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2014/2015 2015/2016 (est.) 2016/2017 (Feb)
Planted A. 56.8 Mill. A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.2 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 46.4 Mill. A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.7 bu. 43.6 bu. 52.6 bu.
Begin Stocks 590 Mill. Bu. 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,026 Mill. Bu. 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,310 Mill. Bu.
Imports 151 Mill. Bu. 113 Mill. Bu. 125 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,768 Mill. Bu. 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,410 Mill. Bu.
Food 958 Mill. Bu. 957 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu.
Seed 79 Mill. Bu. 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 114 Mill. Bu. 152 Mill. Bu. 225 Mill. Bu.
Exports 864 Mill. Bu. 775 Mill. Bu. 1,025 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 2,015 Mill. Bu. 1,952 Mill. Bu. 2,271 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,139 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Ending Stocks remain large.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio is forecast to increase from
50.0% to 50.2%
U.S. All Wheat – Total Prod. & Use(Billion Bushels)
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Feb. 9, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
U.S. Spring Wheat Disappearance(Million Bushels)
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 5
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Mill
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U.S. Spring Wheat – Total Prod. & Use(Million Bushels)
Feb. 9, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
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70.0%
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Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
Nearby MGEX Wheat – Nearby KC Wheat
DTN Prophet X – 02-16-17 am
U.S. Durum Wheat Disappearance(Million Bushels)
USDA – WASDE – Feb. 9, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 5
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U.S. Durum – Total Prod. & Use(Million Bushels)
Feb. 9, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
0.0%
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Mill
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Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
U.S. Durum – Total Prod. & Use(Million Bushels)
Feb. 9, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
0.0%
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Mill
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Bu
she
ls
Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use Imports
What about Canadian Wheat
Production?
U.S. & Canadian All Wheat Prod.(Million Bushels)
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Mill
ion
Bu
she
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U.S Production Canadian Production
USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 5 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
U.S. & Canadian Spring Wheat Prod.(Million Bushels)
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Mill
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U.S Production Canadian Production
USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 8 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
U.S. and Canadian Durum Production(Million Bushels)
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Mill
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Bu
she
ls
U.S Production Canadian Production
USDA Wheat Yearbook -Table 11 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
Western N.D. Durum Prices(May 13, 2010 to Dec. 1, 2016)
Data collected by NDSU Extension Service
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Ce
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pe
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ush
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Choice Durum Terminal Durum Amber Durum Ordinary Durum Feed Durum
What about WorldWheat Production,
Use and Carry Over?
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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USDA – WASDE- Feb. 9, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Dom. Use
USDA – WASDE- Feb. 9, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
Who holds 2016/17 wheat ending stocks?
China – 44.7%U.S. – 12.5%
Russia – 4.5%E.U. – 4.1%India – 3.2%
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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0.20
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Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Dom. Use
USDA – WASDE- Feb. 9, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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Without China Production and Use
USDA – WASDE- Feb. 9, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates(Million Acres)
Crop 2016 USDA
Low High Average2017 Est.
Hard Red Winter
26.586 22.600 26.664 24.954 23.30
Soft Red Winter
6.020 4.800 6.600 5.662 5.68
WhiteWinter
3.531 3.200 4.300 3.473 3.37
Total Winter
36.137 31.700 36.381 34.139 32.383
Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates(Million Acres)
Crop 2016 USDA
Low High Average2017 Est.
Hard Red Winter
26.586 22.600 26.664 24.954 23.30
Soft Red Winter
6.020 4.800 6.600 5.662 5.68
WhiteWinter
3.531 3.200 4.300 3.473 3.37
Total Winter
36.137 31.700 36.381 34.139 32.383
3.75 Mill. A. Reduction
Barley Update
Historical U.S. Barley Use by Category(Million Bushels)
Feb. 9, 2017 USDA -WASDE & U.S. Feed Grains Database
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Mill
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Feed and residual use Exports Seed use Food, alcohol, and industrial use
U.S. Barley – Total Prod. & Use(Million Bushels)
Feb. 9, 2017 USDA -WASDE & U.S. Feed Grains Database
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Stocks-to-Use Ratio Total Production Total Use
May MGEX Wheat Pricing Points
DTN Prophet X – 02-16-17 am
U.S. Dollar Index
DTN Prophet X – 02-16-17 am
Euro = 57.6 %Japanese Yen = 13.6 %Pound Sterling = 11.9 %Canadian Dollar = 9.1 %Swedish Krona = 4.2 %Swiss Franc = 3.6 %
Questions?
