Crop Outlook for 2011
17
University Extension/Department of Economics Crop Outlook for 2011 Iowa Institute for Cooperatives 2010 Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa November 23, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911
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Crop Outlook for 2011. Iowa Institute for Cooperatives 2010 Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa November 23, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Crop Outlook for 2011
University Extension/Department of Economics
Crop Outlook for 2011
Iowa Institute for Cooperatives2010 Annual Meeting
Ames, IowaNovember 23, 2010
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
University Extension/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Source: USDA
2007 2008 2009 2010
Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.5 88.2
Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 154.3
Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,110 12,540
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708
Imports (mil. bu.) 20 14 8 10
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,362 13,729 14,792 14,257
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,913 5,182 5,159 5,300
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,049 3,709 4,568 4,800
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,338 1,316 1,370 1,380
Exports (mil. bu.) 2,437 1,849 1,987 1,950
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,737 12,056 13,084 13,430
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 827
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.55 5.20
University Extension/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2007 2008 2009 2010
Area Planted (mil. acres) 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.7
Yield (bu./acre) 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.9
Production (mil. bu.) 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,375
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 574 205 138 151
Imports (mil. bu.) 10 13 15 10
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,536
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,665
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 93 106 108 117
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,570
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,351
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 185
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 9.97 9.59 11.45
Source: USDA
University Extension/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA
University Extension/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA
University Extension/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Week
Mill
ion b
ush
els
2008 2009 2010
University Extension/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
Week
Mill
ion
bu
she
ls
2008 2009 2010
University Extension/Department of Economics
Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
University Extension/Department of Economics
Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
University Extension/Department of Economics
Corn Futures Trade
Source: CFTC
0
2
4
6
81/3
/2006
4/3
/2006
7/3
/2006
10/3
/2006
1/3
/2007
4/3
/2007
7/3
/2007
10/3
/2007
1/3
/2008
4/3
/2008
7/3
/2008
10/3
/2008
1/3
/2009
4/3
/2009
7/3
/2009
10/3
/2009
1/3
/2010
4/3
/2010
7/3
/2010
10/3
/2010
Bill
ion b
ush
els
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Total Trade Non Comm Net Price
University Extension/Department of Economics
Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6/8
/2009
7/8
/2009
8/8
/2009
9/8
/2009
10/8
/2009
11/8
/2009
12/8
/2009
1/8
/2010
2/8
/2010
3/8
/2010
4/8
/2010
5/8
/2010
6/8
/2010
7/8
/2010
8/8
/2010
9/8
/2010
10/8
/2010
11/8
/2010
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
University Extension/Department of Economics
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12/1
4/2
00
9
1/1
4/2
010
2/1
4/2
010
3/1
4/2
010
4/1
4/2
010
5/1
4/2
010
6/1
4/2
010
7/1
4/2
010
8/1
4/2
010
9/1
4/2
010
10/1
4/2
01
0
11/1
4/2
01
0
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
University Extension/Department of Economics
Principal Crop Area
315
317
319
321
323
325
327
329
331
333
335
Mill
ion a
cre
s
Source: USDA-NASS
University Extension/Department of Economics
States with Room to GrowState Million acres Competing Crops
North Dakota 2.009 Wheat, corn, soy
South Dakota 1.020 Wheat, corn, soy
Arkansas 0.880 Rice, cotton, soy
Missouri 0.335 All of the above
Illinois 0.311 Wheat, corn, soy
Kentucky 0.311 Wheat, corn, soy
Louisiana 0.290 Rice, cotton, soy
North Carolina 0.284 Cotton, corn, soy
Kansas 0.264 Wheat, corn, soy
Tennessee 0.256 Wheat, corn, soy
University Extension/Department of Economics
New Crop Futures Price Movements
Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton
MGE Sept. CME Dec. CME Nov. ICE Dec.
($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/lb.)
June 1 5.81 4.04 9.22 0.75
Nov. 9 8.25 5.52 12.45 1.00
Change 42% 37% 35% 33%
Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton
MGE Sept. CME Dec. CME Nov. ICE Dec.
($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/lb.)
June 1 5.81 4.04 9.22 0.75
Nov. 22 7.59 4.91 11.26 0.88
Change 31% 22% 22% 17%
University Extension/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2011 and BeyondGeneral economic conditions
Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop pricesFears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the marketsLong-term oil price remain in the $90 range
Supply/demand concernsSouth America: La Niña impactsBiofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed?Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45Futures (as of 11/22/2010): Corn $4.91, Soy $11.33
2011/12:Futures (as of 11/22/2010): Corn $4.67, Soy $10.95
University Extension/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
