2011 Crop Market Outlook

University Extension/Department of Economics

2011 Crop Market Outlook

Coleman Research Group PresentationApr. 13, 2011

Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]


U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA

2007 2008 2009 2010

Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2

Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8

Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708

Imports (mil. bu.) 20 14 8 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,175

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,913 5,182 5,140 5,150

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,049 3,709 4,568 5,000

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,338 1,316 1,371 1,400

Exports (mil. bu.) 2,437 1,849 1,987 1,950

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,500

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 675

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.55 5.40


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2007 2008 2009 2010


Yield (bu./acre) 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 574 205 138 151



Crush (mil. bu.) 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,650

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 93 106 108 125

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,580

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,355

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 140


Source: USDA


U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2007 2008 2009 2010


Yield (bu./acre) 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.4


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 456 306 657 976

Imports (mil. bu.) 113 127 119 110


Food (mil. bu.) 948 927 917 930

Seed (mil. bu.) 88 78 69 80

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 16 255 150 170

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,263 1,015 881 1,275

Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,314 2,275 2,018 2,455



Source: USDA


World Corn Production

Source: USDA


World Soybean Production

Source: USDA


World Wheat Production

Source: USDA


Hog Crush Margin

Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig


Cattle Crush Margin

Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head


Corn vs. Wheat(CME July 2011 futures)

3

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Corn Wheat


Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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2008 2009 2010


Corn Advance Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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2011 Crop 2010 Crop


Soybean Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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2008 2009 2010


Soy Advance Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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2011 Crop 2010 Crop


Wheat Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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2008 2009 2010


Wheat Advance Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

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els

2011 Crop 2010 Crop


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2010 2011 2012

Bill

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Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels

Biodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

CropYear

Billion Bushels

2009 4.11

2010 4.43

2011 4.64

2012 4.86


Ethanol Margins

Source: ISU, CARD


-0.04

-0.02

0.00

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0.16

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/2007

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$ p

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gallo

nEthanol Blending Advantage


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Ethanol Gasoline

Fuel Prices


Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

0.90

1.00

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Corn Ethanol Gasoline


Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

3.00

3.50

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Futures USDA


Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

8.00

8.50

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10.00

10.50

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/200

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Futures USDA


Projected ‘10 Season-Average Wheat Price

4.00

4.50

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6.50

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el

Futures USDA


Principal Crop Area

Source: USDA-NASS


Crop Shifts

Source: USDA-NASS

Crop 2010 Plantings

(mil. acres)

2011 Intentions

(mil. acres)

% Change in Area

Corn 88.2 92.2 +4.5

Wheat 53.6 58.0 +8.2

Soybeans 77.4 76.6 -1.0

Cotton 11.0 12.6 +14.5

Rice 3.6 3.0 -17.0

Hay 59.9 59.0 -1.5


U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011


Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 161.7


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 675



Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,140 5,150 5,120

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,568 5,000 5,000

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,371 1,400 1,440

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,987 1,950 2,000

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,500 13,560

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 675 672

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.40 ?.??


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011


Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 43.4


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 140



Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,650 1,650

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 108 125 115

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,501 1,580 1,575

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,355 3,340


Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.50 ??.??


U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011


Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.4 43.8


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 306 657 976 839

Imports (mil. bu.) 127 119 110 81


Food (mil. bu.) 927 917 930 930

Seed (mil. bu.) 78 69 80 80

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 255 150 170 170

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,015 881 1,275 1,150

Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,275 2,018 2,455 2,330


Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.60 ?.??


Weather Concerns


Planting Forecast

Temperature Precipitation

Source: NWS-CPC


Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

3.503.754.004.254.504.755.005.255.505.756.006.256.50

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Futures USDA


Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

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11.50

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Futures USDA


Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

4.50

5.00

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8.50

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9.50

10.00

$ p

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Futures USDA


Thoughts for 2011 and BeyondGeneral economic conditions

Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices

Supply/demand concernsPlanting intentions vs. realizationsBiofuel growth and energy demandWill supply be able to keep pace with demand?

2010/11

USDA

2011/12

Futures (4/8/11)

Corn $5.40 $6.39

Soybeans $11.50 $13.48

Wheat $5.60 $9.05


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

2011 Crop Market Outlook

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