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2012 Crop Market Outlook
34
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911
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2012 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. ?. Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. ?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of 2012 Crop Market Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2012 Crop Market Outlook
Coleman Research Group PresentationApr. 12, 2012
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 95.9
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 164.0
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 14,558
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 801
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,506 15,374
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,600 5,200
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,950
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,405 1,420
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,700 1,900
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,705 13,470
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 801 1,616
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.20 5.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
?
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 73.9
Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.5 43.9
Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056 3,202
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 215 250
Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 14 15 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286 3,467
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,630 1,660
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 110 130 116 126
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,290 1,550
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,036 3,335
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 250 205
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.25 11.50
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
?
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.9
Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 44.5
Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,087
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 306 657 976 862 793
Imports (mil. bu.) 127 119 97 120 120
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,982 3,100
Food (mil. bu.) 927 919 926 930 935
Seed (mil. bu.) 78 69 71 79 83
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 255 150 132 180 180
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,015 879 1,289 1,000 975
Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,189 2,173
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 657 976 862 793 937
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.30 6.30
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
?
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Winter Wheat Plantings
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Durum Wheat Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Spring Wheat Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Historical Performance
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Wheat Production
Source: USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20$ p
er
bush
el
Corn Wheat
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS
Japan
Mexico
Taiwan
EgyptUnknown
Other
South Korea
Total
China
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Mill
ion b
ush
els
-15.6%
37.1%
-21.4% -38.0%
-70.4%
-66.4%
-40.7%
-12.5%
1237.8%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS
China
EU
JapanMexico
Taiwan
Total
Unknown
Indonesia
Other
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
Mill
ion b
ush
els
-17.3%
-68.1%
-23.3% -3.7% -42.0% -20.4%
-28.8%
-21.6%
-0.3%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS
JapanNigeria
Philippines
Egypt
Unknown
Other
Mexico
Total
SouthKorea
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Mill
ion b
ush
els
-1.1% -12.0%
28.9%5.6%
-81.9%
18.1%
-54.2%
-30.9%
-23.7%
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
9/1 9/22 10/13 11/3 11/24 12/15 1/5 1/26 2/16 3/9 3/30
Corn Soy Wheat
Change of Export Pace
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mill
ion b
ush
els
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE, EIA
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mill
ion g
allo
ns
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
12/1
4/2
009
2/1
4/2
010
4/1
4/2
010
6/1
4/2
010
8/1
4/2
010
10/1
4/2
010
12/1
4/2
010
2/1
4/2
011
4/1
4/2
011
6/1
4/2
011
8/1
4/2
011
10/1
4/2
011
12/1
4/2
011
2/1
4/2
012
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
8.509.009.50
10.0010.5011.0011.5012.0012.5013.0013.5014.0014.50
12
/14/2
00
9
2/1
4/2
010
4/1
4/2
010
6/1
4/2
010
8/1
4/2
010
10
/14/2
01
0
12
/14/2
01
0
2/1
4/2
011
4/1
4/2
011
6/1
4/2
011
8/1
4/2
011
10
/14/2
01
1
12
/14/2
01
1
2/1
4/2
012
$ p
er
bu
she
l
Futures USDA
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
4/2
6/2
010
6/2
6/2
010
8/2
6/2
010
10/2
6/2
010
12/2
6/2
010
2/2
6/2
011
4/2
6/2
011
6/2
6/2
011
8/2
6/2
011
10/2
6/2
011
12/2
6/2
011
2/2
6/2
012
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
12/1
4/2
01
0
1/1
4/2
011
2/1
4/2
011
3/1
4/2
011
4/1
4/2
011
5/1
4/2
011
6/1
4/2
011
7/1
4/2
011
8/1
4/2
011
9/1
4/2
011
10/1
4/2
01
1
11/1
4/2
01
1
12/1
4/2
01
1
1/1
4/2
012
2/1
4/2
012
3/1
4/2
012
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
12/1
4/2
010
1/1
4/2
011
2/1
4/2
011
3/1
4/2
011
4/1
4/2
011
5/1
4/2
011
6/1
4/2
011
7/1
4/2
011
8/1
4/2
011
9/1
4/2
011
10/1
4/2
011
11/1
4/2
011
12/1
4/2
011
1/1
4/2
012
2/1
4/2
012
3/1
4/2
012
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
3/3
1/2
011
4/3
0/2
011
5/3
1/2
011
6/3
0/2
011
7/3
1/2
011
8/3
1/2
011
9/3
0/2
011
10/3
1/2
011
11/3
0/2
011
12/3
1/2
011
1/3
1/2
012
2/2
9/2
012
3/3
1/2
012
$ p
er
bush
el
Futures USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2012 and BeyondGeneral economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Supply/demand concernsIntentions vs. plantingsBiofuel growth and energy demandWill supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12
USDA
2011/12
Futures
(4/10/12)
2012/13
Futures
(4/10/12)
Corn $6.20 $5.92 $5.28
Soybeans $12.25 $12.39 $13.09
Wheat $7.30 $7.21 $5.98
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
