Casi Studio Mod_eu

Climate change and vulnerability of agricultural systems.

How do we handle with the challenges of future climate

impacts on agriculture? Case studies in Southern Italy

PhD Eugenia Monaco National Research Council – CNR- Ercolano- Italy

Beirut, the7th May 2015

Evaluation of crop adaptation to climate change in a hilly area of Southern

Italy cropped with durum wheat and grapevine

The adaptive response in rain-fed condition was determined in two climate cases:

the reference (1961-1990) and the future (2021-2050) for two species

Objective

The intra-specific biodiversity was taken in account as a strategy

to cope with climate change

Durum wheat Grapewine

Objective Methodology Case Study1 Results Case Study2 Results Rerences

METHODOLOGY

1 2

3 4

5


Six Global Climate Models AOGCM (A1b) ( Ensembles

runs)

Daily Tmin Tmax TnTTmax, rain

Seasonal Tmin Tmax

rain

Weather generator

Statistical Downscaling

LOCAL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATION ERA40/CRA-CMA

Daily meteorological data applied in the simulation runs refer to two time periods,

namely “reference” (1961-1990 years) and “future” (2021-2050 years), the latter

constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios.

1. Climate scenarios

METHODOLOGY


METHODOLOGY

1 2

3 2

4


METHODOLOGY

2. Agro-hydrological model

From output was calculated Crop Water Stress Index CWSI:

CWSI = 1 - ETact

ETpot

SWAP is a physically based model that calculate water flow through the Richards’

equation

Crop parameters derived from literature and taking in account the traditional

cropping system of study area

Mo

del in

pu

t

Soil Unit

Climate Reference

Future

Crop Species

parameters

Output

ETact

Tact

Soil water regime

METHODOLOGY

Hydrologic indicator


METHODOLOGY

1 2

3 4

5


3 . Temperature indicators

• Cultivar specific

Amerine and Winkler index

The thermal index of Amerine and Winkler (A&W,

1944) is the thermal sum of average daily

temperature (Tm)minus the zero vegetative of vine

plant (10°C) in the period between 1 April and 31

October.

METHODOLOGY


METHODOLOGY

1 2

3 2

4


4. Hydrological requirements yield response function for food crops

(corn, wheath, barley, .soybean..)

y = -1.045x + 1.0294R² = 0.922

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Yr

CWSI

• Cultivar specific

• Durum wheat is caraterized by a linear relation function

• A relative yield of 90% was consider as accetable

CWSI

cv

METHODOLOGY


METHODOLOGY

1 2

3 2

4 5


5. Evaluation of cultivars’ adaptability ( crop production and/or quality):

temperature e regimi idrici….

CWSI simulated

Hydrologic indicator

CWSI cv specific and standard error

Hydrologic requirement

Probability of adaptation for each cultivar, soil and year

Medians were then used to assess and quantify the adaptability of cultivars in the

reference and future climate

Matching

METHODOLOGY


Case study: Durum wheat

Study area: Fortore, Benevento

Vineyards

Olives

Cereals

•The study area is a hilly area of the province of Benevento called "Fortore Beneventano”

• The area is of approximately 40,000 ha.



Study area: Fortore,

Benevento

Hills of clay marl and sandstone of Fortore

Hills of clay marl and sandstone of Miscano-Ufita

Hills of clay marl and sandstone of Tammaro

Three main landscape system

The Fortore geomorphology is mainly characterized by clayey and marl flysch hills and

highlands; narrow alluvial planes and small sandstone relieves are also included.



Durum wheat

The three soil profiles are associated to the main landscape systems.

Vertic- Inceptisol Vertisol Inceptisol

The soils of study area:


Measured hydraulic properties (Wind’s method)

Durum wheat


Results

1. Climate

Min, max temperatures and rain with standard deviation in the

Fortore area, for the cropping season of durum wheat

Climate Scenario Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Rain (mm)

1961-1990 5.5 (±4.05) 13.5 (±5.35) 563 (±50)

2021-2050 6.7 (±4.24) 15.2 (±5.76) 475 (±48)

Difference [(2021-50)- (1961-90)] 1.2 1.7 -88


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5C

WSI

Year

Vertisol

Vertic inceptisol

Inceptisol

2. SIMULATION OUTPUT- CWSI

• CWSI is a soil-dependent index

• High inter soil annual variability

• The values of CWSI in Vertisol ranging between 0.09 and 0.45.

• Vertic Inceptisol shows a range between 0.05 and 0.28

• Inceptisol ranging between 0.02 and 0.35

Results


3. CULTIVARS’ REQUIREMENTS

• Durum wheat cultivars cropped in Mediterranean Country

• CWSI cv range between 0,05 and 0,21

Results


3. CULTIVARS’ ADAPTATION

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

61-90 21-50

Waha 58% 19%

Haurani 74% 52%

Bacali 85 0% 0%

Cham 5 8% 1%

Cham 1 0% 0%

Ad

apta

tio

n p

rob

abili

ty %

Vertisol

• The cultivar most adaptable is Haurani (p = 74% 61-90, p= 52% 21-50)

• The other cultivars ranging from 58 to 0% (0= not adaptable)

• The high difference in the two climates scenario is due to the lower rainfall and to the soil hydraulic

properties (low hydraulic conductivity that generates anoxic conditions during and after a rainfall event)

Results



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

61-90 21-50

Waha 100% 98%

Haurani 96% 94%

Bacali 85 76% 61%

Cham 5 80% 69%

Cham 1 0% 0%

Ad

apta

tio

n p

rob

abili

ty %

Vertic Inceptisol

• The best cultivar is Waha, with the 100% of adaptation in the 61-90 and 98% in 21-50

• The other cultivars have a probability of adaptation ranging from 96 to 0%

• This soil is the best one in terms of durum wheat adaptation responses in both climate cases

•This soil has high water retention that allow a good soil water management during the wheat

cropping season

Results



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

61-90 21-50

Waha 100% 90%

Haurani 96% 88%

Bacali 85 82% 16%

Cham 5 84% 38%

Cham 1 0% 0%

Ad

apta

tio

n p

rob

abili

ty %

Inceptisol

• The best cultivar is Waha, with a 100% adaptation probability in the 61-90 and 90% in the 21-50

• The other ones range from 96 to 0% in both climate scenarios.

• This soil could be considered suitable to durum wheat cultivation as well as the vertic inceptisolsoil

Results


Conclusions case study 1

In the study area of Southern Italy “Fortore” the water regime of soils was predicted

by means of a hydrological model, coupled with future climate scenarios

• According to indicators and requirements, the adaptability of five cultivars of durum

wheat was different between the two climate periods.

• Results are strongly influenced by the rainfall distribution and by soils’ physical

properties, which determine soil water balance and then the crop yield responses.

• The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is a powerful tool for adaptation.

However soils’ water regime and yield responses have to be quantitatively assessed


Case study: grapewine

It is a complex geomorphological area of 20,000 ha in Campania Region vocated to the

production of high quality wine (DOC and DOCG).

Study area: Valle Telesina

Landscape and soils information

The landscape has a complex

geomorphology and it is characterized by

an E-W elongated graben where the

Calore river flows. The area shows five

different geomorphic environments.

The parent material is very heterogeneous

especially in hills and terraces, which

determines an high soil spatial variability

(e.g. Calciustepts, Ustorthents, Haplustolls,

Hapludands and Haplustepts).

Soil information were derived from a soil

map at 1:50,000 scale (Terribile et al.,

1996) consisting of 47 soil mapping units

and soil typological units.


Results

Thermal regimes evaluation... The climate and the water stress affect the vine growth and determine the character of the wine (Saayman, 1977,Matthews and Anderson, 1988;Van Leeuwen et al. 2004).

(DD

A)

Amerine & Winkler index values (DDA, degree day) in the reference and future climate

conditions. (in the figure the value of climatic period 2000-2009 is also reported)


Results

Amerine & Winkler index distributions in the reference and future climate, compared

with the specific thermal need of four cultivar (Falanghina, Aglianico, Malvasia,

Guarnaccia).


Results

Soil moisture regimes evaluation... The physically based model SWAP was run in the "reference" and "future" climatic

period for all 47 soil units of study area. The Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI), was

calculated daily over the growing season in each climatic period.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Shoot growth Flowering Berry formation Berry ripening

mm

Rain cum. Reference

Rain cum. Future

The figure shows the average value over the two climate periods (reference and

future) of the rainfall cumulated in the four different vine development stages (shoot

growth, flowering, berry formation and berry ripening)


Results

CWSI average over the whole season 198 days

Reference climate (1961-1990) Future climate (2021-50)


Results


No difference in this phenological phase


Results


Few differences in this phenological phase

In this phenological phase higher values of CWSI

may reduce the yield of grape and the quality of

wine


Results


Few differences in this phenological phase


Results


Many differences in this phenological phase

In this phenological phase an higher value of

CWSI may increase the quality of wine


Conclusions case study 2

• An increase of Amerine & Winkler index is foreseen in the future climate

conditions (Fig.1); the increase reduces the adaptability of some important

cultivars (e.g. Aglianico and Falanghina) and improves the adaptability of some

others (e.g. Guarnaccia which is less important).

• In the future climate scenario, the CWSI, cumulated over the growing season,

has shown an average increase of 5-8 % , with marked increase in the berry

formation and berry ripening phenological phases.

• In some area (e.g. the ancient terraces) the soil characteristics have mitigated the

effects of climate change showing the same behaviour of CWSI in both climate

scenarios.


References

Climate change, effective water use for irrigation and adaptability of maize:

a case study in Southern Italy. Monaco E., Bonfante A., Silvia Maria Alfieri,

Angelo Basile, Massimo Menenti and Francesca De Lorenzi. Biosystem

Engineering, 128 pp 82-99 (2014).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.09.001

Adaptation of irrigated and rainfed agriculture to climate change: the

vulnerability of production systems and the potential of intra-specific

biodiversity. Case studies in Italy. Menenti M, Alfieri SM, Bonfante A, Riccardi

M, Basile A, Monaco E, De Michele C, De Lorenzi F, 2014. Handbook of Climate

Change Adaptation. DOI 10.1007/978-3 642-40455-9_54-1.

Editore/ISBN/ISSN/EAN Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

http://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_54-1

Climate change effects on the suitability of an agricultural area to maize

cultivation: application of a new Hybrid Land Evaluation System.

Bonfante, A., E. Monaco, S.M. Alfieri, F. De Lorenzi, P. Manna, A. Basile,

and J. Bouma. 2015. Advances in Agronomy (in press).


http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.09.001












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