Boko Haram 2 - Amy Pate

A DHS S&T OUP Center for Excellence

Boko Haram:Mass Atrocities in a Context of Terrorism

Amy Pate, Ph.D.Professional Training Program on the

Prevention of Mass AtrocitiesJune 16, 2015

This research was supported by a Centers of Excellence Supplemental award from the Office of University Programs of the Department of Homeland Security with funding provided by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office of the Department of Defense. The author’s travel to the field was supported by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of SMA, DoD, DNDO, DHS, or START.

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Presentation Outline• Defining “Mass Atrocity”• Mass Atrocities in a Context of Terrorism• Overview of Boko Haram and Countering Boko

Haram• Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in

Northeast Nigeria• Policy Options for Preventing Mass Atrocities


Defining Mass Atrocity• “…widespread and often systematic acts of

violence against civilians by state or non-state armed groups, including killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm, or deliberately inflicting conditions of life that cause serious bodily or mental harm” (US DoD JP 3-07.3)

• Genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, ethnic cleansing (UN Framework for Analysis of Atrocity Crimes)

https://fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3-07-3.pdf

http://www.un.org/en/preventgenocide/adviser/pdf/framework%20of%20analysis%20for%20atrocity%20crimes_en.pdf


Mass Atrocity in the Context of Terrorism1. What is the average number of fatalities per

terrorist attack?a) Between 0 and 1b) Between 1 and 5c) Between 5 and 15d) More than 15


2. What is the average number of fatalities per named organization since 1970?

a) Less than 50b) Between 50 and 100c) Between 100 and 150d) More than 150

Mass Atrocity in the Context of Terrorism


Fatalities Per Attack over Time

Average Number of Fatalities Per Attack: ~2.3


Mass Fatality Attacks


Fatalities by Group

Average number of fatalities for a group between 1970 and 2014 is ~120


High Lethality Groups• Taliban (14,248)• Shining Path (11,585)• Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (10,964)• Boko Haram (10,795)• Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (9,432)• Farabundo Marti Naitonal Liberation Front (8,065)• Nicaraguan Democratic Force (6,662)• Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (5,602)• Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (4,959)• Al-Shabaab (4,186)


Boko Haram: Under Yusuf• Founded in 2002 by Muhammed Yusuf in

Maiduguri, Borno State• Salafist in orientation• Goal: Islamization of Nigeria• Initial focus was on da’wa and creation of

micro-society exemplifying “pure” Islam • Members recruited via charismatic nature of

Yusuf and financial incentives


Boko Haram: Under Shekau• Shift to jihad• Dramatic increase in frequency and lethality of

attacks• Recently, heavier reliance on conscription for

recruitment• Declaration of caliphate, but little attempt at

governance• Pledged allegiance to ISIS (and pledge accepted)


Boko Haram Violence

• Attacks skyrocketed in 2012• Slight decline in 2013 (state of

emergency), but rebounded in 2014

• Average lethality of attacks is relatively high

• In a dead-heat with ISIS for “most lethal” organization in 2014


Factors Contributing to Emergence of Boko Haram

• North-South divide North economically and at times politically marginalized

• Pervasive corruption Political power primary means of economic empowerment

• Recurrent ethnic & sectarian conflict

• Eroded social trust• Disillusionment with government• Pool of potential recruits for extremism


Countering Boko Haram: Actors• Nigerian Police:– Initial responders to Boko Haram– Now, largely outside hot zone in northeast.

• Nigerian Military:– Main responders in northeast

• Civilian Joint Task Forces:– Vigilante groups in northeast– Most active in Borno

• Chadian, Nigerien, and Cameroonian Militaries– Active participation beginning in 2015– Incursions/activities in Nigerian territory


Assessing Risks for Mass AtrocitiesThe UN Framework for Analysis of Atrocity Crimes provides eight “common” factors:

Risk Factor

Description

1 Armed conflict and other forms of instability

2 Serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law

3 Weakness of state structures

4 Motives or incentives for use of violence

5 Capacity to commit atrocity crimes

6 Lack of mitigating factors

7 Enabling circumstances

8 Triggers





Training Activity:

Assessing Risks for Northeast NigeriaGroup Number

Assigned Risk Factors

1 Armed Conflict & Instability State Weakness

2 Human Rights Violations Motives

3 Capacity Mitigating Factors

4 Enabling Circumstances Triggers

5 Armed Conflict & Instability Human Rights Violations

6 Capacity Enabling Circumstances

7 State Weakness Motives

8 Mitigating Factors Triggers


Reporting OutRisk Factor Boko

HaramNigerian Military

Nigerian Police

Civilian Joint Task Force

Other Militaries

Armed conflict/ other instability

Violations of human rights/humanitarian law

State weakness

Motives/incentives to use violence

Capacity to commit atrocity crimes

Absence of mitigating factors

Enabling circumstances or preparatory actions

Triggering factors


Concluding Thoughts and Comments• Boko Haram, despite setbacks in recent

months, continues to be a risk for perpetrating mass atrocities

• However, Boko Haram is not the only actor who may perpetrate mass atrocities


Amy [email protected]

www.start.umd.edu

Contact

mailto:[email protected]

Boko Haram 2 - Amy Pate

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