2019년 자동차산업 전망 - file.mk.co.krfile.mk.co.kr/imss/write/20181204112017__00.pdf ·...
Transcript of 2019년 자동차산업 전망 - file.mk.co.krfile.mk.co.kr/imss/write/20181204112017__00.pdf ·...
-
Top Pick
() TP 140,000
3
/ T.02)2004-9175 [email protected]
3 . 1)
232 2 16
, EU 1 13
: 28
11, . GM
. 2) 5
/
:
3) 12 11
BREXIT BREXIT .
3
2019
-
2019
2
Summary ......................................................................................... 3
I. ........................................................................ 7
1. ..................................................................................................... 7
2. : ................................................... 9
II. ..................................................................... 17
1. ....................................................................... 17
2. ........................................................... 20
3. NHTSA ................................................. 25
4. 232 .............................................................. 31
5. 232 , ............................... 35
III. .................................................................... 39
1. ....................................................................... 39
2. : No-Deal BREXIT? ........................................................ 45
IV. .................................................................................. 49
Content
-
2019
3
Summary - Key Issue
,
1) / 232 2019 2 16
* 2018 5 23, / 232
* 270 . 19 2 16
* 90
* 15 , 30
2) 2018 10 16, EU, ,
* 90 , 19 1 13
1, 2 2019 2
A) B) C)
,,
25% 25%
&
98 13% 18 10
24% (98 )
* 2% -> 3%, 17 60
* 8% -> 10% 17 171
* 1% -> 5% 17 85
,
,
,
3 ,
* '18 10 ,
* VW 47% (VW 84%)
* BENZ 35%
* BMW 31%
* /
* PSA 1974,
1991
* Renault 1980
* HONDA 92% / NISSAN 72%
* TOYOTA 69% / SUBARU 48%
* MAZDA 0% / MITSUBISHI 0%
HONDA 92%
,
50%
SUBARU, MAZDA, MITSUBISHI
&
:
31%, 23%:
,
1
GENESIS ->
17
1(21%), 3(8%)
: ,
3
* BWM, BENZ, AUDI
/
90%
Cadillac(GM), Lincoln(Ford),
Acura(Honda)
* GENESIS
* VW 47%
VW
84%
* SUBARU MS 3.7%
3.9% M/S
*
SUBARU, MAZDA, MITSUBISHI
M/S
,
:
-
2019
4
232
1 1963 X 15 1982 ,,
X
2 1964
(GE) X 16 1982 O
3 1964
17 1987 O
4 1965 X 18 1987
X
5 1968 , X 19 1987 O
6 1969 ,
X 20 1988
X
7 1972
(GE) X 21 1988
X
8 1973
O
22 1991 X
9 1975
O
23 1992
X -
10 1978 ,,
X 24 1994 O
11 1978
O
25 1999 O
12 1979
O
26 2017 X
13 1981
X 27 2017 O
&
14 1981 , X 28 2017 O
&
: US Department of Commerce, / Note: O
(2014~2018 10)
: Automotive News,
76%
99%95% 93% 92%
72% 69%63%
47% 45%
35%31%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ford GM FCA Honda Nissan Toyota VW Benz BMW
-
2019
5
- BREXIT
BREXIT or / ?
A) B) & 2 C) & &
BREXIT BREXIT No Deal BREXIT
- 2019 3 29 EU
20 21
(EU , )
,
2020 7 1
1
-
* BREXIT 2
* BREXIT 6
BREXIT & BREXIT
- (
) or
EU
EU
No Deal BREXIT &
&
BREXIT
* NISSAN, TOYOTA, HONDA
* JAGUAR LANDROVER
* BMW(MINI)
* PSA(VAXHAULL)
No-Deal BREXIT :
* EU 70 40
*
WTO
* EU WTO 10%
* &
BREXIT
* NISSAN: 17 1/3 ,
* TOYOTA: 17 15
* HONDA: Civic ,
* PSA: Vaxhaull 2 -> Vaxhaull
* BMW: Mini . (17 21)
No Deal BREXIT
* , FDI, 9 BREXIT Risk
, , -> 4%
* , , , 44%
14
* Opel, Vaxhaull GM
&
*
* (35%), (26%)
* (30%), (34%)
*
* (1%), S&T(4%)
* (3%), (5% , )
* :
* : (35%),
* (26%), (30%)
* (34%), (17%)
:
-
2019
6
2018 10 YoY-2.1% . ?
* 2018 10 YoY-2.1% (10 5 )
A) B) &
* (10%), (17%),
* 10%
('09.03~'10.12)
* ,
10% ('09.03~'10.12)
10% 5%,
7.5% -> GDP
6.9%
1.6L
* (China Automobile Dealers
Association, CADA) 10
10% 5%
* & (National Development and
Reform Commission, NRDC)
, Bloomberg
NRDC
- 1 ():
* :122 (2017 )
* (): 141
* (, ): 125
* (, ): 93
* (, ): 85
* 2015~2017
,
* ,
- 18 10 : YoY-2.1%
* 30 : YoY+16%
* 30 : YoY-3.1%
* : YoY+20.0%
* 2017 1 : 25,974
* 1 57,229 )
* 1 36.396 VS. 1 13,432
* ,
&
&
*
* : (25%), (16%),
(11%), (14%)
* 1.6L
1.8L/2.0L (7%)
* 3~4 -> JV
* OEM
* : 15% ,
Geely(10%), (1%),(3%)
:
-
2019
7
10 5 YoY-2.1%
. 28
. ,
2018 10
YoY-4.9% 2 .
. 15
1.6L
16 10% 5%, 17 7.5% 2
. - ,
. 3Q18 (M0) 2000
(YoY+2%) (M1) 1Q15
(+4%) .
1. 2.
: Marklines, : Marklines, / 18
3. (YoY) M1 (YoY) 4. M1
: Bloomberg /
: Marklines, Bloomberg
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06-01
06-08
07-03
07-10
08-05
08-12
09-07
10-02
10-09
11-04
11-11
12-06
13-01
13-08
14-03
14-10
15-05
15-12
16-07
17-02
17-09
18-04
MPV
SUV CUV
(YoY,)
()
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
() 2015 20162017 2018
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
M1 (YoY) (YoY,)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
M1
()
() ()
18 10 , YoY-2.1%
YoY-4.9% YoY-4.9%
-
2019
8
5. 10 () (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (YoY) M/S 18-10 17-10 (YoY) M/S
1,950,342 2,247,553 -13.2% - 18,128,486 18,525,863 -2.1%
VW 173,495 199,583 -13.1% 8.9% 1,643,634 1,594,292 3.1% 9.1% VW 175,231 183,490 -4.5% 9.0% 1,607,261 1,545,216 4.0% 8.9% GM 136,621 185,380 -26.3% 7.0% 1,420,490 1,492,897 -4.9% 7.8% GEELY 127,654 124,360 2.6% 6.5% 1,248,448 909,584 37.3% 6.9% GM 113,821 146,867 -22.5% 5.8% 1,077,640 1,144,742 -5.9% 5.9% 117,942 126,608 -6.8% 6.0% 1,031,728 969,105 6.5% 5.7% Changan 73,784 97,139 -24.0% 3.8% 708,351 844,092 -16.1% 3.9% Greatwall 94,087 96,023 -2.0% 4.8% 646,900 694,536 -6.9% 3.6% 59,563 56,043 6.3% 3.1% 593,083 580,001 2.3% 3.3% 67,433 75,005 -10.1% 3.5% 593,009 623,765 -4.9% 3.3% 66,358 70,227 -5.5% 3.4% 581,666 589,319 -1.3% 3.2% SAIC 55,985 49,805 12.4% 2.9% 532,583 400,680 32.9% 2.9% 71,381 64,181 11.2% 3.7% 520,668 581,202 -10.4% 2.9% 58,192 42,675 36.4% 3.0% 475,392 375,601 26.6% 2.6% GAC 46,168 45,452 1.6% 2.4% 440,760 421,672 4.5% 2.4% 32,334 37,006 -12.6% 1.7% 277,856 292,313 -4.9% 1.5%
: CPCA, / :
6. 10 () (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (YoY) M/S 18-10 17-10 (YoY) M/S
2,019,493 2,314,544 -12.7% - 18,933,137 19,059,682 -0.7% -
VW 180,000 193,782 -7.1% 8.9% 1,696,649 1,666,364 1.8% 9.0% VW 174,181 198,310 -12.2% 8.6% 1,680,122 1,642,717 2.3% 8.9% GM 183,154 201,312 -9.0% 9.1% 1,617,471 1,563,379 3.5% 8.5% GEELY 128,986 125,201 3.0% 6.4% 1,265,844 953,033 32.8% 6.7% GM 103,594 151,037 -31.4% 5.1% 1,089,133 1,169,711 -6.9% 5.8% 118,047 126,833 -6.9% 5.8% 1,034,418 969,794 6.7% 5.5% Changan 75,017 100,305 -25.2% 3.7% 739,979 862,955 -14.3% 3.9% Greatwall 97,026 98,590 -1.6% 4.8% 675,868 719,285 -6.0% 3.6% 70,019 80,016 -12.5% 3.5% 631,171 569,356 10.9% 3.3% 74,504 68,867 8.2% 3.7% 595,131 571,838 4.1% 3.1% 52,848 53,645 -1.5% 2.6% 589,542 588,702 0.1% 3.1% SAIC 61,360 51,608 18.9% 3.0% 578,329 412,994 40.0% 3.1% 70,062 54,693 28.1% 3.5% 565,331 577,557 -2.1% 3.0% 55,508 33,217 67.1% 2.7% 477,362 372,231 28.2% 2.5% 36,002 42,505 -15.3% 1.8% 278,382 255,182 +9.1% 1.5%
: CPCA, , / :
-
2019
9
:
5 .
.
. GDP 6.9%
. (10%), (17%), (
1~40%) Sub prime
2009 2010 2016~2017 1.6L
10% 5%, 7.5% .
10% (
) 2009 2010
.
. (China Automobile Dealers Association,
CADA) 10 10% 5%
. & (National Development
and Reform Commission, NRDC)
, Bloomberg NRDC
.
11 15 NRDC '
5%
.
. ()
.
7.
2009.01~2009.12 1.6L 10% 5%
2010.01~2010.12 1.6L 10% 7.5%
2009.03~2010.12 10% ( 5 5 )
2009.03~2010.12 , 10% ( 5
5 )
2015.10~2016.12 1.6L 10% 5%
2017.01~2017.12 1.6L 10% 7.5%
:
-
2019
10
5 . 9
10 YoY-13.9% .
,
.
.
2018 10 , YoY-2.1% . 30
YoY+16.0% , (Benz, BMW, Audi, Cadillac,
JLR, Volvo, Infiniti, Acura) YoY+20.0% .
30 2015 3.5%, 6.2%
5.8%, 9.0% . 30
YoY-3.1% . 1
2 59 30
YoY+16.0%
.
8. 9.
: CPCA, / 18 : CPCA, / 18
10. , 30 11.
: CPCA, Bloomberg : CPCA, Bloomberg
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2016 2017 2018()
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2016 2017 2018()
9.0%
5.8%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10
, 30
30 -2.1%
21.3%
16.0%
10.1%
-2.0% -2.0%-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
27%
30
30
30 SUV
30 SUV
30
10 (YoY)
18 10 (YoY) * -2.1%
* 30 +16.0% * 30 -3.1%
()
-
2019
11
12. 2017 1 25,974 1
122. ,
, , .
, .
30
, .
, ,
.
,
. ,
. Geely 2011 2%
15%` . ,
, .
12. 1 1
: , / 1 2017 , 1 2017, 2016
13. 14.
: , : ,
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000
406080
100120140160180200220
Beijin
g
Zhej
iang
Jian
gsu
Shan
dong
Heb
ei
Tian
jin
Inne
r Mon
golia
Gua
ngdo
ng
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gxia
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xi
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ning
Shaa
nxi
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ghai
Jilin
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n
Shan
ghai
Xinj
iang
Hen
an
Yunn
an
Sich
uan
Cho
ngqi
ng
Hub
ei
Hei
long
jiang
Hai
nan
Gui
zhou
Anhu
i
Hun
an
Gua
ngxi
Jian
gxi
Gan
su
Tibe
t
1 (2017)
1 ()
() ()
1%3%
4.7%
4.7% 2.9%5.0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(yoy)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
GWMChangAn GEELYGM ()
1 * 122
* 203 * 185 * 144
* 85 * 88
,
-
2019
12
.
2000 . 40%
1 ( Motorization rate) 10
18 3, 2, 1 . 2017
Motorization rate 122(YoY+14.6) 1992 (120)
(17 ) Motorization rate 438, 840,
605 .
IMF 19 14.1 . 1991~92
Motorization 19~21
2,640~2,920 . 2017 2,378,
10 2.1% . - ,
2017 Motorization YoY 14.6
(1996~97) Motorization 19.5 +17.1
19 . 17 2,378
, YoY-2.5% 2,319 , 19 YoY+3.6%
2,403( 2,451(YoY+1.9%)) .
15. 1
: ,
16. ( 1997=100)
: ,
3 2
11
11 1
11
1
102030405060708090100110120130
18%
23%
28%
33%
38%
43%
48%
53%
58%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 20%~30% 30%~40% 40%~50% 50%~60% Motorization()
'1'
10 18
30% 15 40% 7 50% 8
0.9
0.6
1.6 2.1
0.07
0.13 0.2
0.3
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
()
() (Index, 1997=100)
(1997=100)
* 1
122 92 * 438 * 605
* 1 17 14.6
96~97 19.5 * 17.1
* 14.1 *2019
2,403(YoY+3.6%)
-
2019
13
- GM Ford
TOYOTA 2030 3 350
. ,
. -
1 24 . (
1994 ) 33
. 17. 1 : 1991~1992
: , ,
18. 1 (2004~2016, 2017 )
: , 19. 20.
: CPCA, / 18 : CPCA, / 18 10
99120
438
16
19.1
21.4
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
100
200
300
400
500
1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
1
1
1 (YoY,)
1 (YoY,)
() ()
-30
20
70
120
170
220
Beijin
g
Zhej
iang
Jian
gsu
Shan
dong
Heb
ei
Tian
jin
Inne
r Mon
golia
Gua
ngdo
ng
Nin
gxia
Shan
xi
Liao
ning
Shaa
nxi
Qin
ghai
Jilin
Fujia
n
Shan
ghai
Xinj
iang
Hen
an
Yunn
an
Sich
uan
Cho
ngqi
ng
Hub
ei
Hei
long
jiang
Hai
nan
Gui
zhou
Anhu
i
Hun
an
Gua
ngxi
Jian
gxi
Gan
su
Tibe
t
2004~2016 1 ()
16.5%
20.7%
11.9%
8.6%7.7%
5.1%
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10
, ,
37.2% 40.8% 41.4% 44.1% 40.0% 37.6% 41.4%
20.1% 19.1% 20.3%21.2% 22.3% 23.5% 22.0%
17.4% 16.5%18.0% 16.8% 19.8% 21.2% 20.7%
13.0% 11.9% 11.4%10.2% 9.8% 10.0% 8.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10
-
2019
14
21.
2018 10 YoY-2.1% . ?
* 2018 10 YoY-2.1% (10 4 )
A) B) &
* (10%), (17%),
1.6L 10%
5%
* 10%
('09.03~'10.12)
* ,
10% ('09.03~'10.12)
10% 5%,
7.5% -> GDP
6.9%
1.6L
* (China Automobile Dealers
Association, CADA) 10
10% 5%
* & (National Development and
Reform Commission, NRDC)
, Bloomberg
NRDC
- 1 ():
* :122 (2017 )
* (): 141
* (, ): 125
* (, ): 93
* (, ): 85
* 2015~2017
,
* ,
- 18 10 : YoY-2.1%
* 30 : YoY+16%
* 30 : YoY-3.1%
* : YoY+20.0%
* 2017 1 : 25,974
* 1 57,229 )
* 1 36.396 VS. 1 13,432
* ,
&
&
*
* : (25%), (16%),
(11%), (14%)
* 1.6L
1.8L/2.0L (7%)
* 3~4
* OEM
* : 15% ,
Geely(10%), (1%),(3%)
:
22. , , 23. 2019 /
2017 2018E 2019E
(YoY) 6.9% 6.6% 6.2%
() 13.9 14.0 14.1
1 (YoY ,) 14.6 14.2 17.1
(, ) 2,378 2,319 2,403
(, YoY) 2.2% -2.5% 3.6%
(, ) 2,429 2,405 2,451
(, YoY) 2.7% -1.0% 1.9%
: CPCA, / 18 10 : / IMF
-2.1%
26.6%
6.5%2.3%
-4.9% -5.9% -4.9% -4.9%-12%
-2%
8%
18%
28%
GM
GM
-
2019
15
24. 10 (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
70,019 80,016 -12.5% -12.5% 631,171 569,356 10.9% 10.9%
Verna (RC) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 16,123 -100.0% -2.8%
Verna (YC) 3,535 9,450 -62.6% -7.4% 26,334 62,971 -58.2% -6.4%
Reina (CB) 3,457 5,815 -40.6% -2.9% 30,958 10,363 198.7% 3.6%
Elantra (HD) 798 826 -3.4% 0.0% 12,779 16,146 -20.9% -0.6%
HDC EV 200 74 170.3% 0.2% 202 364 -44.5% 0.0%
Elantra (MD) 0 10,867 -100.0% -13.6% 8,014 92,140 -91.3% -14.8%
Elantra (AD) 16,576 14,099 17.6% 3.1% 175,409 78,665 123.0% 17.0%
Elantra (ID) 4,894 392 1148.5% 5.6% 44,040 17,656 149.4% 4.6%
Mistra (CF) 6,262 12,873 -51.4% -8.3% 90,808 104,241 -12.9% -2.4%
SQ 6,688 0 - 8.4% 6,688 0 - 1.2%
Sonata (EF) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1,241 -100.0% -0.2%
Sonata (LF) 187 1,062 -82.4% -1.1% 2,956 9,110 -67.6% -1.1%
Sonata (LF HEV) 1,062 83 1179.5% 1.2% 2,142 1,607 33.3% 0.1%
Sonata (LF PHEV) 91 0 - 0.1% 584 0 - 0.1%
43,750 55,541 -21.2% -14.7% 400,914 410,627 -2.4% -1.7%
Encino (Osc) 122 0 - 0.2% 6,381 0 - 1.1%
ix25(GC) 9,001 6,076 48.1% 3.7% 59,473 33,019 80.1% 4.6%
ix35 (NU) 15,428 0 - 19.3% 102,345 0 - 18.0%
Tucson (LM) 0 2,286 -100.0% -2.9% 5,910 17,860 -66.9% -2.1%
Tucson (TL) 1,687 14,718 -88.5% -16.3% 51,285 98,324 -47.8% -8.3%
SantaFe(DM) 31 1,395 -97.8% -1.7% 4,863 9,526 -49.0% -0.8%
SUV 26,269 24,475 7.3% 2.2% 230,257 158,729 45.1% 12.6%
SUV 37.5% 30.6% 6.9% 0 27.9% 8.6%
:
25. () 26. ()
: , / 18 : CPCA, / 18
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
()
2015 20182016 2017
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2016 2017 2018()
-
2019
16
27. 10 (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
36,002 42,505 -15.3% -15.3% 278,383 255,182 9.1% 9.1%
Pegas 5,509 2,218 148.4% 7.7% 29,591 5,010 490.6% 9.6%
K2 (UB) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1 -100.0% 0.0%
K2 (UC) 5,799 11,726 -50.5% -13.9% 68,576 49,235 39.3% 7.6%
Cerato 374 648 -42.3% -0.6% 5,907 5,911 -0.1% 0.0%
Forte 280 771 -63.7% -1.2% 4,475 5,482 -18.4% -0.4%
K3 8,057 15,151 -46.8% -16.7% 58,756 101,291 -42.0% -16.7%
Soul 0 0 - 0.0% 0 0 - 0.0%
K4 950 2,676 -64.5% -4.1% 15,526 14,474 7.3% 0.4%
K5 TF 85 374 -77.3% -0.7% 1,919 2,894 -33.7% -0.4%
K5 JF 1,227 1,882 -34.8% -1.5% 6,643 17,307 -61.6% -4.2%
K5 JFc HEV 0 215 -100.0% -0.5% 703 2,998 -76.6% -0.9% K5 JFc PHEV 0 0 - 0.0% 549 0 - 0.2% 22,281 35,661 -37.5% -31.5% 192,645 204,603 -5.8% -4.7%
KX3 238 643 -63.0% -1.0% 1,402 7,437 -81.1% -2.4%
NP () 8,881 0 - 20.9% 58,024 0 - 22.7%
QE (KX1) 4,122 0 - 9.7% 12,311 0 - 4.8%
Sportage SL 0 3,781 -100.0% -8.9% 7,207 23,725 -69.6% -6.5%
Sportage (KX5) 285 2,067 -86.2% -4.2% 4,949 14,303 -65.4% -3.7% KX7 195 353 -44.8% -0.4% 1,845 5,114 -63.9% -1.3%
SUV 13,721 6,844 100.5% 16.2% 85,738 50,579 69.5% 13.8%
SUV 38% 16% 22.0% 31% 20% 11.0%
:
28. () 29. ()
: , / 18 : , / 18
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
()
2015 20162017 2018
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2016 2017 2018()
-
2019
17
Sub prime 2010 2017
YoY-1.8% . 2018 10 YoY+0.5%
1,430 . YoY-12.8%
36% 31.4% SUV, Light Truck
(YoY+8.0%) .
YoY+ . ,
1H18 3.2%, 3Q18 3.5% 13 3%
. 49 (10 3.7%)
.
. (10
$3,734 YoY+3.1% )
30. 31. 18 6
: Automotive News, Bloomberg, : Automotive News, / 18
32. SAAR (1976.01~2018.10) 33. -
: Automotive News, /
Recession
: Automotive News, Bloomberg,
-22%
-17%
-12%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
02468
101214161820
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 20172019F
CarLight Truck (YoY,)
()
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
() 2015 20162017 2018
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
'76.01 '81.01 '86.01 '91.01 '96.01 '01.01 '06.01 '11.01 '16.01
US RecessionUS SAAR18
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
(%)(%) (YoY)- ()
18
1) 13 3%
2) 49
3)
-
2019
18
10 3.7% (4%)
. , 3%
2019 2.5%, 2020 1.8% . ,
. .
2015 12 0.25%pt 7
(0.0%~0.25%) , 12 .
. Sub prime
(Auto loan) 1.26 .
. 3Q18 48 Commercial Bank
1Q12 5.1% , Finance company 1Q08
6% .
2019 .
34. 35.
: Automotive News, Bloomberg : Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg
36. 37.
: Automotive News, Federal Reserve Bank, : Automotive News, Bloomberg
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
05.01 07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
%() ()
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
3Commercial bank ()Finance companies ()
(%) (%)
4
5
6
7
8
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018
Commercial bank ()Finance companies ()
($ ) (%)
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018
Auto loan (YoY, )
(%)
3Q18 48 5.1% 1Q12
-
2019
19
.
, 2010 3Q18 $1.26
. 3Q18 90 4.3%(3Q17 4.0%)
3Q12 .
, .
2018 10 112
.
,
.
2019 2018 YoY-
0.8% 1,739 .
38. 39.
: FRB, / HELOC: Home Equity Lines of
Credit
: Automotive News, Bloomberg,
40. 41.
: Automotive News, OECD, : Automotive News, Bloomberg,
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
HELOC
(1Q03~3Q18)(%)
170
220
270
320
370
420
470
520
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
00.3
01.5
02.7
03.9
04.1
106
.107
.308
.509
.710
.911
.11
13.1
14.3
15.5
16.7
17.9
18.1
1
(YoY) ()
()
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
98
99
100
101
102
Jan-2011Jan-2012Jan-2013Jan-2014Jan-2015Jan-2016Jan-2017Jan-2018
(yoy,)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
05.01 07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
()
()
3Q18 90
4.3%. 2Q12
2019 YoY-0.8%
1.739 .
-
2019
20
2018 10 , YoY+0.5%
. YoY-12.8%
36% 31.4% .
(YoY-15.3%) (YoY-15.3%) .
SUV YoY+10.6%, YoY+3.8%
. SUV(47%) (16%)
59% 63% .
SUV Small SUV YoY+31.4%, Middle SUV YoY+5.2%,
Large SUV YoY+14.0% . ,
SUV .
SUV FCA(YoY+7.1%),
SUBARU(YoY+4.9%) .
VW YoY+5.4% Tiguan
. 2018 10 Tiguan YoY+173.4%
FCA Compass(YoY+125.3%) .
42. 10 (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
SAAR 17.3 17.90 -3.4% - - - - - 1,345,299 1,336,686 0.6% - 14,119,569 14,055,371 0.5% - GM 239,472 252,813 -5.3% 17.8% 2,408,280 2,448,315 -1.6% 17.1% FORD 191,682 199,698 -4.0% 14.2% 2,070,335 2,124,085 -2.5% 14.7% FCA 178,341 154,514 15.4% 13.3% 1,866,737 1,743,643 7.1% 13.2% TOYOTA 191,102 188,434 1.4% 14.2% 2,015,339 2,019,915 -0.2% 14.3% HONDA 122,182 127,353 -4.1% 9.1% 1,329,179 1,358,956 -2.2% 9.4% NISSAN 109,962 123,012 -10.6% 8.2% 1,234,644 1,319,253 -6.4% 8.7% HYUNDAI 53,025 53,010 0.03% 3.9% 554,725 564,750 -1.8% 3.9% KIA 45,102 44,397 1.6% 3.4% 497,144 502,327 -1.0% 3.5% BMW AG 26,518 26,963 -1.7% 2.0% 286,586 282,696 1.4% 2.0% DAIMLER AG 31,814 31,541 0.9% 2.4% 286,180 301,653 -5.1% 2.0% VW AG 34,076 32,727 4.1% 2.5% 345,253 328,911 5.0% 2.4% SUBARU 55,394 54,045 2.5% 4.1% 558,812 532,893 4.9% 4.0% TESLA 21,700 4,200 416.7% 1.6% 129,000 39,600 225.8% 0.9%
: Automotive News,
YoY-15.3% SUV+10.%
YoY+3.8%
SUV Tiguan YoY+173.4%
Compass YoY+125.3%
-
2019
21
43. 18 SUV (YoY) 44. 18 (YoY)
: Automotive News, /18 10 : Automotive News, /18 10
45. (YoY) 46. SUV (YoY)
: Automotive News, / 10 : Automotive News, /10
47. 48.
: Autodata, : Autodata,
47%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
SUV
Mid
dle
SUV
Smal
l SUV
Mid
dle
Luxu
ry S
UV
Larg
e SU
V
Larg
eLu
xury
SUV
Smal
lLu
xury
SUV
18 10 (YoY,)
31%
-13%
-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Car
Smal
l Car
Mid
dle
Car
Larg
e Ca
r
Luxu
ry C
ar
18 10 (YoY,)
-23%
-6%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Camry Accord Altima Fusion Malibu K5
18 (YoY,)
-11%10%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
18 (YoY,)
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
()Hyundai Hyundai ()
800
1,800
2,800
3,800
4,800
5,800
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
()Kia Kia ()
-
2019
22
2018 10 YoY-1.8% . Accent(YoY-53.5%),
Sonata(YoY-23.5%) (YoY-14.9%)
RV (YoY+22.1%) . RV
8.6% 44.1% , Light Truck
. 2019
. ,
2H19 .
.
49. (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
53,025 53,010 0.03% 0.03% 554,725 564,750 -1.8% -1.8% 3.9% 4.0% -0.02% - 3.9% 4.0% -0.1% - Accent 1,483 5,485 -73.0% -7.5% 23,303 50,126 -53.5% -4.7% Veloster 921 596 54.5% 0.6% 8,857 11,122 -20.4% -0.4% Elantra 18,312 14,733 24.3% 6.8% 167,191 157,800 6.0% 1.7% IONIQ 1,121 898 24.8% 0.4% 12,727 9,327 36.5% 0.6% Genesis 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1,025 -100.0% -0.2% Sonata 7,265 7,595 -4.3% -0.6% 88,240 115,313 -23.5% -4.8% Azera 0 162 -100.0% -0.3% 627 2,773 -77.4% -0.4% G70 51 0 - 0.1% 52 0 - 0.0% G80 217 1,408 -84.6% -2.2% 7,141 13,371 -46.6% -1.1% G90 104 378 -72.5% -0.5% 2,088 3,644 -42.7% -0.3% 29,474 31,255 -5.7% -3.4% 310,226 364,501 -14.9% -9.6%
Santa Fe 7,728 13,024 -40.7% -10.0% 96,697 108,681 -11.0% -2.1% Tucson 11,493 8,731 31.6% 5.2% 115,007 91,568 25.6% 4.2% Kona 4,330 0 - 8.2% 32,795 0 - 5.8% RV 23,551 21,755 8.3% 3.4% 244,499 200,249 22.1% 7.8% RV 44.4% 41.0% 3.4% - 44.1% 35.5% 8.6% -
: Automotive News,
50. 51. (YoY)
: , / : ,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
4
5
6
7
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
() 2015 20162017 2018
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LT Car
(YoY)
-
2019
23
2018 10 YoY-1.0% . K3(YoY-16.7%),
Soul(YoY-14.1) , Carnival(YoY-
25.1%) ( Odyssey YoY+6.2%)
. 3Q18 K3 , 2019
1H19 . , 2.9
2019 . 18
$3,890 YoY+13.9% Sorento SUV
.
52. (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
45,102 44,397 1.6% 1.6% 497,144 502,327 -1.0% -1.0% 3.4% 3.3% 0.03% - 3.5% 3.6% -0.05% - Pride 2,405 1,657 45.1% 1.7% 19,696 13,609 44.7% 1.2% K3 9,537 9,219 3.4% 0.7% 84,425 101,311 -16.7% -3.4% Optima(K5) 7,280 7,554 -3.6% -0.6% 87,125 92,258 -5.6% -1.0% K7 207 1,021 -79.7% -1.8% 4,158 5,464 -23.9% -0.3% Stinger 1,345 0 - 3.0% 14,344 0 - 2.9% K9 17 23 -26.1% 0.0% 277 375 -26.1% 0.0% New Soul 7,951 9,254 -14.1% -2.9% 85,839 99,981 -14.1% -2.8% 28,742 28,728 0.05% 0.0% 295,864 312,998 -5.5% -3.4% Niro 2,164 1,935 11.8% 0.5% 24,264 22,605 7.3% 0.3% Sportage 6,626 5,979 10.8% 1.5% 68,898 61,736 11.6% 1.4% Sorento 6,560 6,478 1.3% 0.2% 92,252 83,791 10.1% 1.7% Carnival 1,010 1,277 -20.9% -0.6% 15,866 21,197 -25.1% -1.1% RV 16,360 15,669 4.4% 1.6% 201,280 189,329 6.3% 2.4% RV 36.3% 35.3% 1.0% - 40% 38% 2.8% -
: ACEA,
53. 54. (YoY)
: , / : ,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3
4
5
6
7
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
() 2015 20162017 2018
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LT Car
(YoY)
-
2019
24
55. 18 (YoY) 56. vs.
: Autodata, / 18 10 : Autodata,
57. 58. ()
: Autodata, : Autodata, / Note 4Q12=100
59. : 10 3.1 60. : 10 2.9
: , : ,
3%
14%
1%-4% -5% -6%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
07.1
07.7
08.1
08.7
09.1
09.7
10.1
10.7
11.1
11.7
12.1
12.7
13.1
13.7
14.1
14.7
15.1
15.7
16.1
16.7
17.1
17.7
18.1
18.7
Toyota Hyundai
($/)
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
FOR
D
CH
RYSL
ER
TOYO
TA
NIS
SAN
HO
ND
A
HYU
NDA
I
KIA
()4Q12
60
110
160
210
260
310
FOR
D
CH
RYSL
ER
TOYO
TA
NIS
SAN
HO
ND
A
HYU
NDA
I
KIA
4Q12=1004Q12 (4Q12=100)
02.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2015201620172018
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 00
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2015 20162017 2018
-
2019
25
NHTSA
Reuters (SDNY) /
. 2015~2017 /
170 . SDNY
,
.
SDNY
.
.
2010 2, CEO
. 2008 16.8%
2011 12.9% . /
5.1% 8.9% . 2011
. 2011
4%pt
.
61. 62.
: Autodata, : Autodata,
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
TOYOTA
TOYOTA
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
()Toyota TOYOTA () (Toyota )
TOYOTA
-
2019
26
GM . GM 2002
10
, 2015 9 9
. 2014~2015 Takata .
. 2013
2016 ,
( 66.)
.
, , GM .
2016
,
. , GM, /
NHTSA ,
( )
(GM, ) . NHTSA
, 1%pt
.
2019 YoY-0.7% 1,739
* : YoY+1.7% 69( 4%),
* : YoY+3.4% 60( 3.5%)
63. HONDA 64. GM
: Autodata, : Autodata,
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01
()HONDA HONDA () (HONDA )
600
1,600
2,600
3,600
4,600
5,600
6,600
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
07.1
07.1
008
.709
.410
.110
.10
11.7
12.4
13.1
13.1
014
.715
.416
.116
.10
17.7
18.4
()GM GM () (GM )
GM
-
2019
27
65. 2013~2016
()
()
1
2013
2Q
MY2011/13 Avante
8 13/4/2 ,
- 2010.11.12~2013.03.05 MY2011~2013
(Elantra) 8 1,059,824
2 MY2010~2013 Azera 13/6/28
- 2012.05.22~2012.11.23 MY2010~2013
(Azera) 5,200
3 3Q MY2013 SantaFe 13/8/15 Axle shaft - 2012.07.13~2013.03.12 MY2013 2.4L SantaFe 20,300
4 4Q MY2009~2012 Genesis 13/11/6
- 2008.04.30~2012.03.28 MY2009~2012
Genesis 43,500
5
2014
1Q MY2014 SantaFe 14/1/6 Sidewall - 2013.11.05~2013.11.15 MY2014 SantaFe 28
6 2Q MY2011~2014 Tucson 14/5/15
- 2011.01.03~2013.12.23 MY2011-2014
Tucson 137,500
7
3Q
MY2015 Sonata 14/7/10 - 2014.02.02~2014.05.23 MY2015 Sonata 2,138
8 MY2015 Sonata 14/7/25 (Caliper) - 2014.04.25~2014.06.16 MY2015 Sonata 5,650
9 MY2011~2014 Sonata 14/7/25 (Shift cable) - 2009.12.11~2014.05.29 MY2011-2014 Sonata 883,000
10
4Q
MY2009~2011 Genesis
/ Equus 14/12/8
- 2008.04.30~2010.11.21 MY2009~2011
Genesis Equus 42,800
11 MY2015 Sonata 14/12/23
(Axle shaft)
- 2014.08.29~2014.10.28 MY2015 1.6L Sonata 208
12
2015
1Q MY2015 Genesis 15/3/5 - 2014.02.21~2015.01.21 MY2015 Genesis 24,400
13 2Q MY2015 Accent 15/4/30
(ODS
) - 2014.09.15~2015.02.10 MY2015 Accent 2,580
14
3Q
MY2015 Sonata 15/7/13 - 2014.04.25~2014.12.04 MY2015 Sonata 128,804
15 MY2009~2011 Accent 15/9/24
-2009.03.01~20011.02.11 MY2009~2011
Accent 99,500
16 MY2011~2012 Sonata 15/9/24 ,
-2009.12.11~2012.04.12 HMMA 2.0L/2.4L
GDI Sonata 470,000
17
4Q
MY2015-2016 Sonata 15/10/30 ABS malfunction lights -2014.05.28~2015.08.21 MY2015~2016 Sonata 64,744
18 MY2013-2015
Genesis Coupe 15/12/10 suspension
-2011.12.28~2011.04.06 MY2013~2015
Genesis Coupe 10,800
19
2016
1Q
MY2015 Genesis 16/1/11
-2014.03.03~2015.02.09 MY2015 Genesis (DH) 11,142
20 MY2016-2017 SantaFe 16/3/17
-2015.09.01~2016.02.12 MY2016-2017
SantaFe 34,200
21
2Q
MY2015-2016 Sonata 16/5/5 -2014.05.29~2016.02.11 MY2015/16 Sonata +
MY2017 Elnatra 33
22 MY2016 Tucson 16/6/10 Hood Latch -2015.05.19~2016.03.14 MY2016 Tucson 81,000
23
3Q
MY2013 Elnatra 16/8/19
-2012.12.01~2013.04.30 MY2013 Elantra 64,500
24 MY2016 Tucson 16/9/14
7DCT software
- 2015.05.20~2016.05.31 MY2016 Tucson 41,000
: NHTSA,
-
2019
28
66. 2013~2016 ,
: , NHTSA, Autodata
67. /
2014.04 TOYOTA
- 2009 ES350
*
* TOYOTA 4
* 12( 12900)
2014.11 /
- 2012 11
* 2012~2013 120 1
* 5680 , 4320
* 2 475
( 270 , 205 )
* 3
2015.09 GM
- GM 2002 10
* GM 1
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* 2017 GM 49, DC 1 2
* GM 25
2017.01 VW
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20
* 2017 1 VW 43
* VW , 175
2017.01 Takata
-
* . Takata 4600
* Takta 10
2017.05
- 2015 9 Shock Absorber
* 2017 5, Shock Absorber
: ,
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
13.1
13.3
13.5
13.7
13.9
13.1
1
14.1
14.3
14.5
14.7
14.9
14.1
1
15.1
15.3
15.5
15.7
15.9
15.1
1
16.1
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.9
16.1
1
()
Hyundai Hyundai ()
1 2 3 4 5 6 7,8,9 10,11 12 13 14 15~17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-
2019
29
68. / (: )
(: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
16,524,111 17,475,428 17,581,424 17,581,424 17,511,098 17,388,521
YoY 5.9% 5.8% 0.6% 0.0% -0.4% -0.7%
YoY 0.7% 5.0% 1.7% -11.5% -1.0% 1.7%
YoY 8.4% 7.9% 3.5% -8.9% -1.0% 3.4%
MS 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0%
725,718 761,710 775,005 685,555 678,513 690,000
Accent 63,309 61,486 79,766 58,955 27,408 15,000
Veloster 27,601 24,245 30,053 12,658 10,080 10,000
Elantra 222,023 241,706 208,319 198,210 210,006 190,000
IONIQ - - - 11,197 15,279 13,000
Genesis Coupe 10,859 6,457 5,130 1,026 - -
Sonata 216,933 213,303 199,408 131,803 100,859 100,000
Azera 7,232 5,539 4,942 3,060 692 -
G70 - - - - 352 19,000
G80 19,133 24,917 24,266 16,322 8,717 5,000
G90 3,415 2,332 2,143 4,418 2,531 3,000
Kona - - - - 40,000 45,000
Tucson 47,306 63,591 89,713 114,733 144,102 130,000
Santa Fe 107,906 118,134 131,265 133,173 118,488 120,000
Veracruz 1 - - - - -
- - - - - 40,000
MS 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5%
580,234 625,818 647,598 589,668 584,045 603,800
Rio 35,933 - - - - -
Pride - 23,742 28,700 16,760 24,256 20,000
K3 69,336 78,919 103,292 117,596 97,996 90,000
Optima(K5) 159,020 159,414 124,203 107,493 101,512 90,000
K7 9,267 7,343 4,738 7,249 5,516 4,000
Stinger - 0 0 843 17,000 18,000
K9 1,330 2,524 834 455 336 1,800
Soul 145,316 147,133 145,768 115,712 99,345 130,000
Niro - 0 0 27,237 29,236 32,000
Sportage 42,945 53,739 81,066 72,824 81,272 75,000
Sorento 102,520 116,249 114,733 99,684 109,750 90,000
Carnival 14,567 36,755 44,264 23,815 17,826 13,000
- - - - - 40,000
:
-
2019
30
69. 18 (YoY) 70. vs.
: Autodata, / 18 10 : Autodata,
71. 2020
: , Note : Light Vehicle ,
3%
14%
1%-4% -5% -6%
-10%
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0%
5%
10%
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20%
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0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
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09.1
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16.1
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18.7
Toyota Hyundai
($/)
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1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
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11%
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15%
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100%
1998
1999
2000
2001
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2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016
2017
2018
Minin g and logging Constr uction
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Retail tr ade Tr anspo rtatio n and wareh ousing
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Fin ancial activities Profe ssio nal an d busine ss service s
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Othe r ser vices Gove rnme nt()
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-
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: InsideEVs, / : Automotive News, / 18 10
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X
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X
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: US Department of Commerce, / Note: O
-
2019
38
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,
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,
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1991
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,
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: /
.
,
:
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,
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*
SUBARU, MAZDA, MITSUBISHI
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: US Department of Commerce, : US Department of Commerce,
-
2019
39
2013 5 2018 10
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15 +9.2%, 16 +6.5%, 17 +3.3%
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: ACEA, : ACEA, OECD,
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,)
(YoY,)()
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06.01 08.01 10.01 12.01 14.01 16.01 18.01
(%) (YoY) ()
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,
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-
2019
40
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: ACEA, IMF
: OECD,
98. , 99. , &
: ACEA, : ACEA, IMF,
100. 2 , & 101. &
: ACEA, IMF, : ACEA, IMF,
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
(YoY) (YoY,)
98
99
100
101
102France Euro B4
UK Germany
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
MS() MS()()
-26%-21%-16%-11%-6%-1%4%9%14%19%
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,)
(YoY,)()
-14%
-9%
-4%
1%
6%
11%
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,) (YoY,)()
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,) (YoY,)()
-
2019
41
2017 2.7% 2018 2.2%, 2019 2.0% ,
YoY+0.7% 1,594 . 2019
, .
.
Nissan, FCA, Ford, Honda YoY-
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,
(YoY+6.0%), (YoY+5.6%), Toyota(YoY+5.2%)
2019 .
102. (: )
() 18-10 () 17-10 ()
(YoY,%) 2018F 2019F
2018
(YoY)
2019
(YoY)
2018
2019
EU + EFTA 13,424,360 13,232,496 1.4% 15,829,668 15,940,475 1.3% 0.7% 2.2% 2.0%
2,926,046 2,884,676 1.4% 3,492,881 3,520,824 1.5% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9%
2,064,419 2,224,603 -7.2% 2,352,611 2,234,981 -7.4% -5.0% 1.4% 1.5%
1,836,480 1,737,371 5.7% 2,228,950 2,306,963 5.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6%
1,131,081 1,027,818 10.0% 1,359,002 1,454,132 10.0% 7.0% 2.7% 2.2%
1,638,364 1,692,767 -3.2% 1,898,931 1,822,974 -3.5% -4.0% 1.2% 1.0%
3,827,970 3,665,261 4.4% 4,497,293 4,600,602 0.0% 2.3% - -
: ACEA,
103. (YoY): ,
: ACEA, Marklines
104. &
105. &
: ACEA, IMF, : ACEA, IMF,
1.4%
-1.8% -1.5%-1.7%
-10.5%
2.5%5.2% 5.6% 4.4%
6.0% 6.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
FCA
VW
PSA
18 10 , (YoY) ,
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
30
80
130
180
230
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,) (YoY,)()
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
(YoY,) (YoY,)()
Nissan, FCA
-
2019
42
106. 10 () (: )
2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
EU + EFTA 1,118,859 1,207,772 -7.4% - 13,424,360 13,232,496 1.4% -
VW Group 233,806 298,289 -21.6% -21.6% 3,219,137 3,140,498 2.5% 2.5%
VOLKSWAGEN 114,340 134,864 -15.2% -6.9% 1,498,260 1,437,684 4.2% 1.9%
AUDI 31,274 66,487 -53.0% -11.8% 641,470 705,499 -9.1% -2.0%
SKODA 56,741 57,176 -0.8% -0.1% 618,773 593,931 4.2% 0.8%
SEAT 29,199 34,136 -14.5% -1.7% 392,191 336,779 16.5% 1.8%
PORSCHE 1,988 5,232 -62.0% -1.1% 64,165 62,290 3.0% 0.1%
OTHERS 264 394 -33.0% 0.0% 4,278 4,315 -0.9% 0.0%
PSA Group 190,790 193,095 -1.2% -1.2% 2,151,343 1,515,062 42.0% 42.0%
PEUGEOT 79,180 77,688 1.9% 0.8% 832,360 772,976 7.7% 3.9%
OPEL & VAUXHALL 63,379 68,413 -7.4% -2.6% 763,679 215,227 254.8% 36.2%
CITROEN 45,423 43,809 3.7% 0.8% 516,226 487,913 5.8% 1.9%
DS 2,808 3,185 -11.8% -0.2% 39,078 38,946 0.3% 0.0%
RENAULT Group 107,358 125,710 -14.6% -14.6% 1,404,258 1,345,331 4.4% 4.4%
RENAULT 68,981 90,049 -23.4% -16.8% 954,815 949,189 0.6% 0.4%
DACIA 37,929 35,192 7.8% 2.2% 443,481 391,885 13.2% 3.8%
LADA 327 468 -30.1% -0.1% 4,469 4,256 5.0% 0.0%
ALPINE 121 1 12000.0% 0.1% 1,493 1 149200.0% 0.1%
FORD 78,003 78,677 -0.9% -0.9% 855,916 869,381 -1.5% -1.5%
BMW Group 85,251 75,042 13.6% 13.6% 863,005 863,460 -0.1% -0.1%
BMW 66,403 59,059 12.4% 9.8% 683,362 687,114 -0.5% -0.4%
MINI 18,848 15,983 17.9% 3.8% 179,643 176,346 1.9% 0.4%
FCA Group 66,217 76,384 -13.3% -13.3% 891,498 907,932 -1.8% -1.8%
FIAT 46,299 54,820 -15.5% -11.2% 626,208 684,329 -8.5% -6.4%
JEEP 10,914 9,724 12.2% 1.6% 142,240 88,471 60.8% 5.9%
LANCIA/CHRYSLER 4,497 4,505 -0.2% 0.0% 39,959 53,801 -25.7% -1.5%
ALFA ROMEO 3,837 6,482 -40.8% -3.5% 74,882 72,526 3.2% 0.3%
OTHERS 4,497 4,505 -0.2% 0.0% 39,959 53,801 -25.7% -1.5%
DAIMLER 85,666 79,651 7.6% 7.6% 811,381 842,158 -3.7% -3.7%
MERCEDES 76,480 70,907 7.9% 7.0% 727,366 759,518 -4.2% -3.8%
SMART 9,186 8,744 5.1% 0.6% 84,015 82,640 1.7% 0.2%
TOYOTA Group 60,541 57,845 4.7% 4.7% 657,369 624,725 5.2% 5.2%
TOYOTA 57,359 54,487 5.3% 5.0% 617,729 586,717 5.3% 5.0%
LEXUS 3,182 3,358 -5.2% -0.3% 39,640 38,008 4.3% 0.3%
NISSAN 28,210 38,201 -26.2% -26.2% 439,288 490,723 -10.5% -10.5%
HYUNDAI 40,863 42,881 -4.7% -4.7% 466,618 440,348 6.0% 6.0%
KIA 40,740 38,978 4.5% 4.5% 426,558 403,902 5.6% 5.6%
: ACEA,
-
2019
43
107. 10 (: )
HYUNDAI 2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
i10(IA) 6,650 6,709 -0.9% -0.1% 68,898 80,762 -14.7% -2.7%
i20 7,280 7,406 -1.7% -0.3% 78,799 87,803 -10.3% -2.0%
Elantra 120 263 -54.4% -0.3% 1,575 2,277 -30.8% -0.2%
IONIQ (HEV) 1,520 1,227 23.9% 0.7% 14,332 12,457 15.1% 0.4%
IONIQ (PHEV) 420 248 69.4% 0.4% 4,912 1,417 246.6% 0.8%
IONIQ (EV) 1,000 485 106.2% 1.2% 7,414 4,572 62.2% 0.6%
i30(GD) 0 235 -100.0% -0.5% 172 18,384 -99.1% -4.1%
i30(PD) 5,007 6,694 -25.2% -3.8% 59,929 48,071 24.7% 2.7%
i30(PD N) 600 0 - 1.4% 5,278 0 - 1.2%
Veloster(FS) 0 8 -100.0% 0.0% 10 132 -92.4% 0.0%
i40(VF) 350 938 -62.7% -1.3% 7,474 13,567 -44.9% -1.4%
G80 0 4 -100.0% 0.0% 27 45 -40.0% 0.0%
G90 0 0 - 0.0% 2 2 0.0% 0.0%
22,947 24,217 -5.2% -2.9% 248,822 269,489 -7.7% -4.6%
Santa-Fe(DM) 30 711 -95.8% -1.5% 4,869 9,419 -48.3% -1.0%
Santa-Fe(TM) 510 0 - 1.2% 2,177 0 - 0.5%
Santa-Fe(L) 0 134 -100.0% -0.3% 441 1,008 -56.3% -0.1%
Tucson(TL) 10,720 13,480 -20.5% -6.2% 120,764 131,265 -8.0% -2.4%
Tucson(FCEV) 0 29 -100.0% -0.1% 11 102 -89.2% 0.0%
Kona (OS) 6,800 2,764 146.0% 9.1% 55,068 2,774 1885.1% 11.8%
Kona (OS EV) 600 0 - 1.4% 1,936 0 - 0.4%
NEXO 18 0 - 0.0% 51 0 - 0.0%
ix20 1,425 2,802 -49.1% -3.1% 19,214 27,554 -30.3% -1.9%
RV 20,103 19,920 0.9% 0.4% 204,531 172,122 18.8% 7.3%
50 163 -69.3% -0.3% 1,788 2,999 -40.4% -0.3%
43,100 44,300 -2.7% -2.7% 455,141 444,610 2.4% 2.4%
: ACEA,
108. (YoY) :
: ,
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2015 2016 2017 2,018
IONIQ
Tucson i-Series
(yoy)
(yoy,% ) (%pt)
-
2019
44
109. 10 (: )
KIA 2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)
Morning 6,843 5,071 34.9% 4.5% 63,952 54,810 16.7% 2.3%
Pride 3,708 5,671 -34.6% -5.0% 37,436 64,602 -42.1% -6.7%
Venga 1,116 1,818 -38.6% -1.8% 15,942 21,112 -24.5% -1.3%
New Soul 355 539 -34.1% -0.5% 4,669 6,188 -24.5% -0.4%
Soul EV 282 859 -67.2% -1.5% 5,218 4,677 11.6% 0.1%
C'eed(JD) 1,850 5,387 -65.7% -9.1% 50,015 62,586 -20.1% -3.1%
C'eed(CD) 5,078 0 - 13.0% 14,949 0 - 3.7%
K5(JF) 187 186 0.5% 0.0% 2,619 3,392 -22.8% -0.2%
K5() 455 669 -32.0% -0.5% 5,979 8,919 -33.0% -0.7%
K5(PHEV) 392 466 -15.9% -0.2% 3,850 2,215 73.8% 0.4%
K7 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1 -100.0% 0.0%
Stinger 400 416 -4% 0.0% 3,426 614 458.0% 0.7% K9 0 0 - 0.0% 3 0 - 0.0%
20,666 21,082 -2.0% -1.1% 208,058 229,116 -9.2% -5.2%
Stonic 4,897 2,960 65% 5.0% 48,638 4,468 988.6% 10.9%
Niro HEV 3,143 2,536 23.9% 1.6% 29,565 26,320 12.3% 0.8%
Niro PHEV 662 637 3.9% 0.1% 8,285 1,530 441.5% 1.7%
Niro EV 1 0 - 0.0% 2 0 - 0.0%
Sportage 9,641 9,681 -0.4% -0.1% 108,051 114,678 -5.8% -1.6%
Sorento 760 887 -14.3% -0.3% 9,659 11,388 -15.2% -0.4%
New Carens 1,030 1,247 -17.4% -0.6% 14,746 16,905 -12.8% -0.5%
RV 20,134 17,948 12.2% 5.6% 218,946 175,289 24.9% 10.8%
40,800 39,030 4.5% 4.5% 427,004 404,405 5.6% 5.6%
: ACEA,
110. (YoY) :
: ,
-4%
1%
6%
11%
16%
21%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2015 2016 2017 2018
Sportage Sorento CeedPride Morning (YoY)
(yoy,%)(%pt)
-
2019
45
: No-Deal BREXIT?
11 25 EU EU
BREXIT (Withdrawal Agreement) ' (Framework for the
future relationship) . 2019 3 29 EU
2020 12 31 .
EU EU ,
, 2, 1 .
EU ,
. EU ,
, ,
-EU .
BREXIT EU
. 12 11 BREXIT
EU 19 2~3 .
BREXIT . BREXIT 2020
EU ,
2, 1 EU .
1) BREXIT
BREXIT D-Day BREXIT ,
Nissan, Honda, Toyota, BMW(Mini),
BREXIT . BREXIT
(35%),
(26%), (34%), (30%) .
2) BREXIT &
BREXIT .
BREXIT
. . BREXIT
2 6
BREXIT .
BREXIT
12 11
BREXIT
6
6
-
2019
46
3) BREXIT &
, EU
.
EU No-Deal BREXIT
. Nissan,
Honda, Toyota, BMW(Mini), TOYOTA BREXIT
. Nissan Sunderland Qashqai
, Honda Civic, BMW Mini
. BREXIT
No-Deal BREXIT
.
No-Deal BREXIT EU 70
40 .
' ' 'WTO '
. EU
WTO 10% , Honda No-Deal BREXIT
10% .
-
/ . ,
.
No-Deal BREXIT
. No-Deal BREXIT
,
(1%), (3%), S&T(4%), (5%
) .
-EU FTA
. Liam Fox 10 5 2020
-EU FTA .
BBC
.
BREXIT - FTA
.
EU BREXIT
No-Deal BREXIT EU
-
2019
47
111.
820 * 121.9
() 856,000 * 18.6
() 1,749,385 * 13, 4
JLR, NISSAN, BMW(Mini), TOYOTA, HONDA, PSA(Vaxhaull)
() 2,540,617 * 2
() 1,334,538 * 77%
440 * 12.8%
() 160 * , , ,
: SMMT, Marklines, 112. BREXIT
BREXIT or / ?
A) B) & 2 C) & &
BREXIT BREXIT No Deal BREXIT
- 2019 3 29 EU
20 21
(EU , )
,
2020 7 1
1
-
* BREXIT 2
* BREXIT 6
BREXIT & BREXIT
- (
) or
EU
EU
No Deal BREXIT &
&
BREXIT
* NISSAN, TOYOTA, HONDA
* JAGUAR LANDROVER
* BMW(MINI)
* PSA(VAXHAULL)
No-Deal BREXIT :
* EU 70 40
*
WTO
* EU WTO 10%
* &
BREXIT
* NISSAN: 17 1/3 ,
* TOYOTA: 17 15
* HONDA: Civic ,
* PSA: Vaxhaull 2 -> Vaxhaull
* BMW: Mini . (2017 21)
No Deal BREXIT
* , FDI, 9 BREXIT Risk
, , -> 4%
* , , , 44%
14
* Opel, Vaxhaull GM
&
*
* (35%), (26%)
* (30%), (34%)
*
* (1%), S&T(4%)
* (3%), (5% , )
* :
* : (35%),
* (26%), (30%)
* (34%), (17%)
:
-
2019
48
113. No-Deal BREXIT
NISSAN
- 2017 167 1/3 Sunderland
* 16 Qashqai X-Trail Sunderland
* Nissan Sunderland
* 2017 2 , Nissan Hard Brexit 5
* '18 2019/2020
* Nissan 8
* Hard Brexit $5.8
TOYOTA
- 9 , 15
* EU Hard Brexit
* No-deal Brexit
* , ,
HONDA
- Swidon 4
* Civic
* No-deal Brexit
*
* Swidon
* No-deal Brexit WTO 10%
Ford
* Ford Dagenham Bridgend
* 1.4
* 2017 YoY 9.7 , 6 Brexit
* Brexit
* Ford No-deal Brexit
* Ford ,
- Brexit 2019 3
* 6
* Castle Bromwich 2 5 3
PSA
- Vaxhaull 2
* Hard Brexit Vaxhaull
* PSA EU
BMW
- BMW Oxford Mini
* 2017 Mini 21 2
* BMW Brexit
* BMW 2019 3 29 Brexit Oxford Mini
: ,
-
2019
49
(005380.KS) () 140,000
(000270.KS) () 34,000
-
2019
50
(005380.KS)
()
ASP (12/3) 108,500
(12M) 140,000
2011 10.3% OPM 3Q18 2.7%
, OPM 11.0% 0.1% . OPM
1) ( +0.6%p ), 2)
(+0.5%p), 3) ( +0.4%,
+0.5%p) . 4)
(+5.3%p), 5) (+2.2%p), 6)
( +1.0%p, +1.4%p), 7) (+1.6%p) OPM
. 1Q17 19.4
ASP 3Q18 27.1 . ASP 12.3
17.5 . ASP
2011 .
ASP , SUV ()
SUV SUV ASP 18.5 2011
2 .
2019 SUV Genesis G90(), 2019 G80
Genesis SUV .
ASP .
14
(12) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
() 93,649 96,376 98,386 97,387 99,813
() 5,193 4,575 2,773 3,687 4,628
() 7,307 4,439 3,367 4,803 5,926
() 5,406 4,033 2,442 3,661 4,400
EPS() 18,938 14,127 8,668 13,220 15,888
(%) -15.8 -25.4 -38.6 52.5 20.2
ROE(%) 8.4 5.9 3.5 5.2 6.1
PER() 7.7 11.0 12.5 8.2 6.8
PBR() 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA() 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.8 10.6
Key Data (: 2018. 12. 3)
KOSPI(pt) 2131.93
KOSDAQ(pt) 709.46
() 5,000
() 275,352
() 276,939
(3M,) 863,230
(3M, ) 87,711
52 / 164,000 / 92,800
52 Beta 1.3
(18F,%) 3.7
(%) 46.5
(%)
5 29.1
8.7
Company Performance
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
-1.4 -13.2 -22.5-32.8
KOSPI- -3.0 -6.1 -11.3-22.0
Company vs KOSPI composite
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
17/12 18/04 18/08
(%)()
Relative to KOSPI
-
2019
51
1. 2.
: , : ,
3. OPM 4. OPM
: , / : ,
5. ASP 6. ASP
: , / : ,
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100% (YoY)
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
(YoY)
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18
OPM()
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18
OPM()
19
21
23
25
27
29
2009
1Q
2009
3Q
2010
1Q
2010
3Q
2011
1Q
2011
3Q
2012
1Q
2012
3Q
2013
1Q
2013
3Q
2014
1Q
2014
3Q
2015
1Q
2015
3Q
2016
1Q
2016
3Q
2017
1Q
2017
3Q
2018
1Q
2018
3Q
ASP RV ASP ASP
()
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2009
1Q
2009
3Q
2010
1Q
2010
3Q
2011
1Q
2011
3Q
2012
1Q
2012
3Q
2013
1Q
2013
3Q
2014
1Q
2014
3Q
2015
1Q
2015
3Q
2016
1Q
2016
3Q
2017
1Q
2017
3Q
2018
1Q
2018
3Q
ASP RV ASP ASP
()
-
2019
52
7. & : 2017 ASP
: , / (YoY) (YoY)
8. & : 2Q16 ASP ->
: , / (YoY) (YoY)
9. , ASP : ASP
: , / (YoY) (YoY)
2021222324252627282930
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(yoy) (yoy) ASP() ()
1 2 3
4
5
15
17
19
21
23
25
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SUV (yoy) SUV (yoy) SUV ASP() ()
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(yoy) (yoy) ASP() ()
1 23
4 5
-
2019
53
10. (: )
2017A 2018F
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2017A 2018F 2019F
23,366 24,308 24,201 24,501 22,437 24,712 24,434 26,804 96,376 98,386 97,387
4,293 4,727 4,340 4,218 3,468 3,926 3,693 4,618 17,578 15,704 16,990
GPM(%) 18.4% 19.4% 17.9% 17.2% 15.5% 15.9% 15.1% 17.2% 18.2% 16.0% 17.4%
3,043 3,382 3,135 3,443 2,786 2,976 3,404 3,766 13,003 12,931 13,303
(%) 13.0% 13.9% 13.0% 14.1% 12.4% 12.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.5% 13.1% 13.7%
1,251 1,344 1,204 775 681 951 289 852 4,575 2,773 3,687
OPM(%) 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 4.7% 2.8% 3.8%
172 -307 -90 77 87 9 87 -286 -147 -103 -99
-68 -16 18 -147 -85 -67 -107 92 -214 -168 97
402 143 -32 -289 242 236 94 292 225 864 1,118
1,757 1,165 1,100 416 926 1,129 362 950 4,439 3,367 4,803
() 1,331 817 852 1,033 668 701 269 805 4,033 2,442 3,661
NPM(%) 5.7% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.1% 3.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.8%
YoY
(%) 4.5% -1.5% 9.6% -0.2% -3.98% 1.7% 1.0% 9.4% 2.9% 2.1% -1.0%
(%) 1.3% -5.9% 11.4% -6.9% -19.23% -16.9% -14.9% 9.5% -0.6% -10.7% 8.2%
(%) 5.0% 3.7% 11.0% -2.0% -8.42% -12.0% 8.6% 9.4% 4.1% -0.6% 2.9%
(%) -6.8% -23.7% 12.7% -24.1% -45.5% -29.3% -76.0% 9.9% -11.9% -39.4% 32.9%
(%) -21.1% -50.7% -19.7% 3.3% -49.8% -14.2% -68.4% -22.1% -25.4% -39.4% 49.9%
17,823 19,187 18,824 18,656 17,389 18,852 18,625 19,302 74,490 74,168 74,331
4,097 3,571 3,714 4,033 3,778 4,216 4,041 5,647 15,415 17,682 16,356
1,445 1,550 1,664 1,812 1,269 1,644 1,768 1,855 6,471 6,536 6,700
23,365 24,308 24,202 24,501 22,436 24,712 24,434 26,804 96,376 98,386 97,387
1,083 877 555 70 400 451 -252 393 2,585 992 2,021
179 213 179 147 173 266 197 200 718 836 754
112 76 83 68 38 89 88 77 339 291 306
1,251 1,344 1,204 775 681 951 289 852 4,575 2,773 3,687
YoY
(%) 3.4% -1.2% 13.3% -3.9% -2.4% -1.7% -1.1% 3.5% 2.5% -0.4% 0.2%
(%) 16.1% 0.3% -1.4% 26.2% -7.8% 18.1% 8.8% 40.0% 9.7% 14.7% -7.5%
(%) -8.7% -8.5% -2.1% -6.5% -12.2% 6.0% 6.3% 2.4% -6.4% 1.0% 2.5%
(%) 4.5% -1.5% 9.6% -0.2% -4.0% 1.7% 1.0% 9.4% 2.9% 2.1% -1.0%
(%) -1.2% -34.7% 157.4% -91.5% -63.1% -48.6% -145.4% 460.7% -25.7% -61.6% 103.7%
(%) -10.0% -18.1% 11.1% 76.8% -3.4% 24.9% 10.1% 35.8% 2.1% 16.4% -9.8%
(%) 15.9% -52.6% -42.2% -61.1% -66.0% 17.0% 6.0% 12.6% -41.1% -14.0% 5.0%
(%) -6.8% -23.7% 12.7% -24.1% -45.5% -29.3% -76.0% 9.9% -11.9% -39.4% 32.9%
: ,
-
2019
54
11. (: )
2017A 2018F
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2017A 2018F 2019F
1,090 1,108 1,072 1,206 1,027 1,181 1,120 1,266 4,475 4,595 4,766
380 484 393 395 382 435 408 440 1,652 1,664 1,702
162 183 173 170 169 185 171 176 688 702 709
218 301 220 224 212 249 237 264 964 963 993
710 624 678 811 646 746 712 827 2,824 2,931 3,065
196 105 188 295 163 217 181 269 784 830 903
94 96 75 63 65 79 83 82 328 310 318
160 157 178 184 172 177 184 201 679 733 748
98 90 77 90 82 88 77 90 355 337 337
53 60 56 65 58 62 58 67 233 245 260
56 62 50 59 51 56 53 51 227 212 204
41 43 49 49 41 48 56 52 182 196 210
CHMC 11 9 4 4 3 3 3 1 29 10 10
Others 0 1 1 4 10 15 17 14 7 57 74
893 1,003 884 911 865 963 939 998 3,691 3,765 3,863
YoY
-1.6% -13.8% -1.2% -12.6% -5.7% 6.6% 4.5% 5.0% -7.9% 2.7% 3.7%
-5.0% 4.9% 23.8% -19.2% 0.4% -10.2% 3.8% 11.5% -0.9% 0.7% 2.2%
0.7% -3.6% 32.2% -2.9% 4.7% 1.4% -1.2% 3.3% 4.8% 2.0% 1.0%
-8.7% 10.8% 18.0% -28.3% -2.7% -17.2% 7.7% 17.6% -4.6% -0.1% 3.1%
0.3% -24.3% -11.6% -9.1% -9.0% 19.5% 5.0% 1.9% -11.5% 3.8% 4.6%
-14.4% -64.2% -26.6% -18.8% -17.1% 106.8% -3.7% -8.9% -31.3% 5.8% 8.8%
0.2% -8.1% -26.5% -26.9% -31.1% -17.1% 10.5% 31.4% -15.1% -5.5% 2.7%
10.2% -3.6% 1.6% 3.0% 7.5% 12.1% 3.8% 9.0% 2.6% 8.0% 2.0%
8.1% -6.5% -6.1% 0.7% -15.8% -2.4% -0.2% 0.0% -1.0% -5.0% 0.0%
29.7% 8.0% 2.2% 14.3% 9.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 12.5% 5.0% 6.0%
-9.2% 7.0% 6.4% -7.0% -8.1% -9.9% 6.3% -12.6% -1.3% -6.6% -3.8%
20.1% 6.0% 17.1% 8.1% 0.2% 12.5% 13.1% 5.9% 12.5% 8.1% 6.9%
CHMC -3.5% -19.8% -35.0% -53.8% -73.6% -64.6% -41.5% -74.2% -25.4% -66.0% 2.0%
Others -36.3% 36.2% -3.9% 117.1% 2512.7% 1089.0% 1644.5% 251.7% 50.5% 751.5% 29.8%
1.7% 1.1% 6.7% -10.4% -3.2% -4.0% 6.3% 9.5% -0.7% 2.0% 2.6%
: ,
-
2019
55
12. 12m Fwd P/E 13. 12m Fwd P/B
: , : ,
50
100
150
200
250
300
14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1
()
10.3x9.7x9.2x8.6x8.0x
50
100
150
200
250
300
14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1
()
1.0x
0.8x
0.6x
0.4x
1.2x
-
2019
56
(005380.KS)
Income Statement Balance Sheet
12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 93,649 96,376 98,386 97,387 99,813 47,584 48,440 53,000 57,437 62,175
(%) 1.8 2.9 2.1 -1.0 2.5 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 9,035 75,960 78,798 82,682 80,397 83,606 7,934 7,203 7,463 7,299 7,286
(%) 81.1 81.8 84.0 82.6 83.8 10,524 10,280 10,619 19,477 19,963 17,689 17,578 15,704 16,990 16,207 79,468 78,592 75,953 74,261 73,238
(%) 18.9 18.2 16.0 17.4 16.2 29,406 29,827 27,519 25,544 23,855 12,496 13,003 12,931 13,303 11,578 4,586 4,809 3,534 2,619 1,962
(%) 13.3 13.5 13.1 13.7 11.6 20,730 19,910 20,854 22,053 23,375 5,193 4,575 2,773 3,687 4,628 51,784 51,168 51,168 51,168 51,168
(%) -18.3 -11.9 -39.4 33.0 25.5 178,836 178,199 180,121 182,866 186,581 (%) 5.5 4.7 2.8 3.8 4.6 43,610 43,161 44,679 45,860 47,417
EBITDA 8,552 8,104 6,357 6,576 6,974 8,601 9,890 9,890 9,890 9,890 EBITDA(%) 9.1 8.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 16,245 16,759 18,277 19,457 21,014
433 -147 -103 -99 -100 14,837 13,099 13,099 13,099 13,099 105 108 154 80 133 62,882 60,281 60,281 60,381 60,381 34 29 -74 -79 -82 36,456 36,454 36,454 36,554 36,554
-49 -214 -168 97 155 13,390 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488 1,729 225 864 1,118 1,242 0 0 0 0 0 7,307 4,439 3,367 4,803 5,926 106,491 103,442 104,960 106,241 107,798 1,587 -108 741 1,105 1,482 67,190 69,103 69,323 70,750 72,864 0 0 0 0 0 1,489 1,489 1,446 1,446 1,446 5,720 4,546 2,626 3,698 4,445 4,203 4,201 4,201 4,201 4,201
(%) -12.1 -20.5 -42.2 40.8 20.2 -1,223 -2,279 -3,393 -4,507 -5,622 (%) 6.1 4.7 2.7 3.8 4.5 64,361 67,332 68,709 71,250 74,478
5,406 4,033 2,442 3,661 4,400 5,155 5,654 5,838 5,875 5,919 (%) -15.8 -25.4 -39.4 49.9 20.2 72,345 74,757 75,160 76,625 78,783
256 -1,114 -1,114 -1,114 -1,114 73,606 72,464 72,464 72,564 72,564 5,975 3,432 1,512 2,584 3,330 45,630 43,010 39,508 44,466 40,983 ) K-IFRS /
Cashflow Statement Valuation Indicator
12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 997 3,922 5,990 -2,518 5,978 Per Share () 5,720 4,546 2,626 3,698 4,445 EPS 18,938 14,127 8,668 13,220 15,888 11,165 12,781 3,481 2,975 2,635 BPS 241,103 247,807 256,240 261,395 269,026
2,165 2,255 2,308 1,974 1,689 DPS 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,200 4,400 1,194 1,275 1,275 915 657 Multiples ()
-13,565 -11,384 470 -8,167 248 PER 7.7 11.0 12.5 8.2 6.8 () 199 425 -260 164 13 PBR 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 () -1,324 -726 -339 -8,859 -485 EV/EBITDA 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.8 10.6 () 300 150 1,518 1,181 1,557 Financial Ratio
-6,312 -4,744 -4,850 -4,869 -4,888 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F () 786 1,348 -80 -80 -80 (%) 133 118 0 0 0 EPS() -15.8% -25.4% -38.6% 52.5% 20.2%CAPEX -2,971 -3,055 0 0 0 EBITDA() -6.6% -5.2% -21.6% 3.4% 6.1%() -2,597 -570 -719 -738 -757 (%)
5,691 2,181 -1,018 -862 -1,015 ROE( ) 8.2% 6.2% 3.5% 4.9% 5.7%() 8,494 1,870 0 0 0 ROE( ) 8.4% 5.9% 3.5% 5.2% 6.1%() 0 0 0 100 0 ROIC 7.5% 5.6% 4.0% 5.2% 6.2% () 0 0 -43 0 0 WACC 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
182 -428 2,761 2,753 2,751 (%) 559 931 2,883 -5,495 2,826 147.2% 138.4% 139.6% 138.7% 136.8% 7,331 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 63.1% 57.5% 52.6% 58.0% 52.0% 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 9,035 19.1 13.7 8.1 10.8 13.6
-
2019
57
(000270.KS)
()
(12/3) 30,400
(12M) 34,000
2011 8.1% OPM 3Q18 1.9%
, OPM 6.9% 0.7% . OPM
1) / (+1.2%p), 2) (
+0.4%p ), 3) (+0.4%p)
. 3Q18
OPM 2017 4%p .
2011 4) (+2.1%p), 5)
(+1.0%p), 6) ( +0.7%p, +0.8%p)
OPM
(Ex-factory) (Wholesale) / 18 . ,
,
. 18 1 3.5, 5.1 2014 . 10
2.7, 2.9 .
,
1Q~3Q18 . 3Q18
1.87(17 324)
10 2.7 2014 3
. ASP
& .
(12) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
() 52,713 53,536 55,144 56,108 58,129
() 2,461 662 1,173 1,822 1,982
() 3,442 1,140 1,841 2,569 2,875
() 2,755 968 1,473 1,953 2,128
EPS() 6,795 2,388 3,634 4,817 5,249
(%) 4.7 -64.9 52.2 32.6 9.0
ROE(%) 10.8 3.6 5.4 6.9 7.2
PER() 5.8 14.0 8.4 6.3 5.8
PBR() 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA() 3.7 5.1 4.1 3.0 2.8
Key Data (: 2018. 12. 3)
KOSPI(pt) 2131.93
KOSDAQ(pt) 709.46
() 5,000
() 123,230
() 405,363
(3M,) 820,212
(3M, ) 23,762
52 / 35,250 / 27,000
52 Beta 1.2
(18F,%) 2.6
(%) 40.5
(%)
4 35.6