כנס לקוחות 12.3.08
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תתת תתתתתת תתת תתתתתת12.3.08 12.3.08
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כנס לקוחות 12.3.08. The Soybean. The Soybean Flow. Follow the money!. Ground transportation. Field. Elevator. River Transportation. Ground transportation. Ocean Freight. Crushing. Transportation to Client. מקורות יבוא. The Soybean (money) components. Chicago Board Of Trade. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of כנס לקוחות 12.3.08
12.3.0812.3.08כנס לקוחות כנס לקוחות
The Soybean
The Soybean Flow
Follow the money!
Field
Ground transportation
Elevator
River Transportation
Ocean Freight
Ground transportation
Crushing
Transportation to Client
מקורות יבוא
USA14%
Brasil42%
Paraguay38%
Argentina6%
CBOT70%
Premium2%Dagon
2%Clearing
1%
Ground Transportation
0%
Ocean Freight15%
Crushing Costs10%
The Soybean (money) components
Chicago Board Of Trade
• Supply (land sowed, weather, yields etc…)• Demand (Food, Feed, Energy etc…)• Stocks to Use ratio• Funds (mainly technical)• “Outside” markets
FIELD – The Supply
The US Grain and Soybean Belt
6 weeks drought monitor animation
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif
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96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08Citi Est
08/09CitiProj
US Soybeans Stock Deviation
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95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08CitiEst
08/09CitiProj
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C/O
S/U ratio
US Soybeans Carry Out and Stock To Use Ratio
US Soybean Ending Stocks, Million Bushels
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Ending Stocks, Left Scale Stocks/Use, Right Scale
US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.
Brazil Agriculture area
Matto Grosso
Amazonas
M G del SulS P
Parana
Rio Grande D SSanta Catarina
Goias Minas
GeraisRio De Janeiro
Para
BahiaTocantins
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 13.60 13.93 16.35 18.45 21.52 22.80 22.23 20.70 21.80YLD MT/HA 2.55 2.83 2.66 2.82 2.37 2.32 2.56 2.81 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.40 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74PRODUCTION 34.70 39.50 43.50 52.00 51.00 53.00 57.00 59.00 61.04IMPORTS 0.80 0.86 1.05 1.12 0.37 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.08SUPPLY 35.90 40.98 45.01 53.80 54.66 56.84 58.56 61.37 63.86
CRUSH 21.58 22.77 25.84 27.80 28.91 29.73 28.75 31.25 31.70EXPORTS 11.78 15.52 16.07 19.99 19.26 22.80 24.77 24.48 26.35SFR 1.93 2.22 2.41 2.72 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.90 3.10TOTAL USE 35.29 40.52 44.33 50.50 51.17 55.33 56.22 58.63 61.15
END STOCKS 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74 2.71
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.44 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42PRODUCTION 16.83 17.72 20.10 21.68 22.55 23.10 22.08 24.06 24.73IMPORTS 0.12 0.23 0.37 0.29 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.07 0.11SUPPLY 17.39 18.41 20.82 22.59 23.59 24.06 23.10 25.00 26.26
DOMESTIC 7.06 6.92 7.42 8.19 8.26 9.02 9.96 10.92 11.30EXPORTS 9.87 11.13 12.78 13.54 14.56 14.23 12.28 12.65 13.65TOTAL USE 16.93 18.05 20.20 21.73 22.82 23.25 22.23 23.58 24.95
END STOCKS 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42 1.31
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.20 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32PRODUCTION 2.24 2.34 2.58 2.76 2.99 3.12 2.78 3.20 3.26IMPORTS 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01SUPPLY 2.49 2.61 2.75 2.95 3.21 3.39 3.07 3.51 3.60
DOMESTIC 3.03 2.99 2.91 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.13 3.46 4.15EXPORTS 1.13 1.62 2.10 2.40 2.53 2.74 2.31 2.57 2.03TOTAL USE 4.16 4.61 5.01 5.37 5.51 5.74 5.45 6.03 6.18
END STOCKS 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.31
MEAL EQUIV 19.23 23.47 25.56 29.43 29.87 32.35 31.97 32.11 34.60OIL EQUIV 3.37 4.57 5.15 6.20 6.19 7.07 7.02 7.22 7.04
BRAZIL SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
FEB-JAN, MILLION TONNES
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 8.58 10.40 11.40 12.60 14.00 14.40 15.20 16.00 16.80YLD MT/HA 2.47 2.67 2.63 2.82 2.36 2.71 2.66 2.95 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.29 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54PRODUCTION 21.20 27.80 30.00 35.50 33.00 39.00 40.50 47.20 47.04IMPORTS 0.44 0.55 0.47 0.53 0.71 0.68 1.01 2.28 2.35SUPPLY 21.93 28.81 31.34 37.97 36.47 43.35 43.89 51.89 52.93
CRUSH 16.35 19.26 22.01 24.78 24.67 29.21 32.65 35.01 38.75EXPORTS 4.10 7.48 6.18 8.92 6.57 10.12 7.13 11.59 9.40SFR 1.01 1.19 1.20 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.90TOTAL USE 21.46 27.94 29.39 35.21 32.79 40.97 41.48 48.35 50.05
END STOCKS 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54 2.88
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.33 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26PRODUCTION 12.94 15.29 17.47 19.60 19.40 23.05 25.71 27.39 30.32SUPPLY 13.27 15.44 17.74 19.86 19.78 23.53 26.04 27.78 30.58
DOMESTIC 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.36 0.28 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.45EXPORTS 12.93 14.94 17.26 19.12 19.01 22.73 25.22 27.13 29.85TOTAL USE 13.12 15.17 17.49 19.48 19.29 23.20 25.65 27.53 30.30
END STOCKS 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26 0.28
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30PRODUCTION 2.99 3.58 4.04 4.64 4.65 5.48 6.16 6.74 7.31SUPPLY 3.07 3.68 4.16 4.85 4.82 5.70 6.36 6.99 7.61
DOMESTIC 0.12 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.21 0.38 0.32 0.36 0.80EXPORTS 2.85 3.47 3.78 4.34 4.39 5.12 5.78 6.34 6.52TOTAL USE 2.97 3.56 3.96 4.68 4.60 5.50 6.10 6.69 7.32
END STOCKS 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30 0.29
MEAL EQUIV 16.19 20.89 22.18 26.22 24.23 30.77 30.89 36.35 37.32OIL EQUIV 3.61 4.86 4.92 5.99 5.60 6.99 7.10 8.48 8.26
ARGENTINE SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
MAR-FEB, MILILON TONNES
SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
32.5 31.3 34.239.3
43.552.0 51.0 53.0
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Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year
World Soybean Production, Thousand Tonnes
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Change (right scale) World total (left scale)
Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields
Soy Complex
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Crush Margin CBOT
Averages: 2007 – 63, 2006 – 71, 2005 - 51
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